The Global Week Ahead

June 11 - 18, 2023

The Ukraine Spring offensive has officially begun, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced at the end of this past week.  Amidst all this, Russian President Putin will be hosting the St. Petersburg Summit – often referred to as the Russian Davos – where business leaders and political leaders from various nations (but not Europe or the US as in years past) will attend.   President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for a discussion on the situation in Ukraine, and later in the week, NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation and prepare for the NATO Summit in July.

In Beijing, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has offered to help mediate Israeli-Palestinian tensions.  Here in Washington, D.C., all attention will be on former President Donald Trump’s arraignment in federal court after being indicted on 37 criminal counts of violation of the Espionage Act.  Our view is this case will have something of a paralyzing effect on Congress for the rest of the summer and flip the tables on the 2024 election expectations – all of which we will see more clearly in the week and months ahead leading into the trial. 

On the global economic agenda this week, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank meet to discuss interest rates.  The ECB is expected to raise another quarter point, and the market is again split over what the Fed will do (our guess is they will raise another quarter point, too). 

Regarding other major economic data reports this week, China will release key statistics on industrial production, property, and retail sales, giving markets a better sense of how the country is bouncing back – or not – from COVID lockdowns.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 11, 2023

Global

·       Nothing significant to report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Montenegro holds parliamentary elections.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers will hold informal meetings through June 13th in Brussels.  

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Tunis to announce an EU financial aid package to Tunisia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, June 12, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will host NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for meetings at the White House.  They will review preparations for the upcoming NATO Summit, which is being held in Vilnius, Lithuania.  They will also discuss the Allied support for Ukraine.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden begins a trip through June 15th to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico.  She will meet with the respective presidents of each country in a bid to improve trade relations with the EU.

·       Chile launches its second-ever satellite into orbit on a SpaceX rocket.

·       Bolivia and Paraguay observe Chaco Armistice Day, a public holiday commemorating the end of the Chaco War between the two nation’s in1935.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Consumer Inflation Expectations (May), Monthly Budget Statement (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (April), Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Caixin Global Forum begins in Singapore.  More than 300 policymakers, business leaders, and thought leaders will attend the inaugural event hosted by the Beijing news service. 

·       The Philippines celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan PPI (May), Machine Tool Orders (May)

·       India Manufacturing Production (April), Industrial Production (April), Inflation (May)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

·       Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda in Paris.  The talks will be held at a dinner that will focus on Ukraine’s push for NATO membership and security guarantees from its allies, all in advance of the NATO Summit being held in July.

·       NATO will hold the largest deployment exercise in its history – “Air Defender 23” – through June 23rd.  More than 10,000 troops and airmen from 25 nations with more than 250 aircraft will train focused on air operations in European airspace – mostly over Germany but also up to the Russian borders in the Baltics and around the Black Sea  – under the command of the German Air Force.

·       The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will be in Washington DC for peace talks hosted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, and Consumer Affairs Council meet through Tuesday.

·       Kosovo celebrates Peace Day, marking the day a ceasefire in the Kosovo War was negotiated in 1999.

·       Today is Russia Day, a national holiday in Russia commemorating the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at a webinar hosted by Signum chair Charles Myers

·       Ireland Construction PMI (May)

·       Bulgaria Balance of Trade (April)

·       Serbia Inflation (May)

·       Ukraine GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Current Account (April), Participation Rate (April), Unemployment Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th Ordinary Session of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Eastern Africa Assembly of Heads of State and Government meet in Djibouti.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Threats to international peace and security: Climate change, peace, and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will visit India, where he'll meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss bilateral defense ties.

·       Former President Donald Trump is expected in a federal court in Miami to be arraigned on federal charges for his handling of classified documents after leaving office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Inflation (May), CPI (May), NFIB Business Optimism Index (May), Redbook (June 10)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank hosts the Asia Clean Energy Forum in Manila.  The four-day meeting, which is co-hosted by the US Agency for International Development and the Korea Energy Agency, will bring leaders together to discuss alternative energy policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), Total Social Financing (May), M2 Money Supply (May), Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q2)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (June), NAB Business Confidence (May)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat at  the 27th Annual European Financial Services Conference organized by Goldman Sachs in Paris 

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee as part of an inquiry into central bank independence.

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)

·       Germany Inflation (May), CPI (May), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June), Current Account (April)

·       UK Unemployment (May)

·       Spain CPI (May), Inflation (May)

·       Poland Current Account (April), Balance of Trade (April)

·       Norway GDP (April)

·       Romania Inflation (May), Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will visit China through June 16.  President Xi has offered to help facilitate peace talks with Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (April)

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Bloomberg hosts its New Economy Gateway Africa forum in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Namibia Inflation (May)

·       South Africa Gold Production (April), Mining Production (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation (May)

·       Uganda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 14, 2023 

Global

·       International Energy Agency Oil Market Report

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The values of human fraternity in promoting and sustaining peace. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Falklands Islands Liberation Day commemorating the liberation of the Island from the Argentine military in 1982.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, US PPI (MBA Mortgage Index (June 9th)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (April)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April), Business Confidence (June)

·       Argentina Inflation (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India WPI Inflation (May), WPI Food Index (May), WPI Fuel (May), WPI Manufacturing (May)

·       South Korea Imports/Export Prices (May), Unemployment (May)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 17th.  Hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin and often referred to as “the Russian version of Davos,” the forum in 2022 (according to claims made on the website), brought together “14,000 people from 131 countries, including 1,700, 130 high-ranking foreign officials” and resulted in “5.7 trillion (ruble) in agreements.”

·       Junior doctors in the UK go on strike for 72 hours seeking better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (April)

·       UK GDP (April), Manufacturing Production (April), Industrial Production (April), Goods Trade Balance (April), Construction Output (April), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

·       Poland Industrial Production (April)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (April)

·       Hungary Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (April)

·       Sweden CPI (May), CPIF (May), Inflation (May)

·       Bulgaria (May)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account (Q1), M1 Money Supply (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       UAE Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Kuwait Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Qatar Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       East African finance ministers meet at the South Sudan Oil & Power Conference held in Juba.

·       A French court continues the trial of former Rwandan police officer Philippe Hategekimana for his role in the Rwanda genocide in 1994.  Hategekimana fled to France in 1994 and started his life under a false identity. He is charged with murdering dozens of Tutsis and coordinating roadblocks that trapped countless other Tutsis leading to their murder.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       South Africa Retail Sales (April)

·       Ghana Inflation (May) 

Thursday, June 15, 2023 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold briefings on the 1591 Committee and on the 751 Committee (Somalia). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).  

·       G20 Agricultural Ministers meet in Hyderabad, India.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Jobless Claims (June 10), Retail Sales (May), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (June),  Philadelphia Fed Employment (June), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (June), Industrial Production (May), Manufacturing Production (May), Capacity Utilization (May), Export/Import Prices (May), Net Long-Term TIC Flows (April)

·       Canada Housing Starts (May), Manufacturing Sales (April)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay GDP (Q1)

·       Peru GDP (April), Unemployment (May), GDP (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Over 4,000 members of South Korea's National Railroad Workers' Union will join demonstrations across the country against industry privatization.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China People’s Central Bank 1-Year MLF Announcement, House Price Index (May), Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), Unemployment (May), FDI (May)

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), Machinery Orders (April), Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Australia Unemployment (May), Reserve Bank Bulletin

·       Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Hong Kong Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (Q1)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

·       Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Sri Lanka GDP (Q1), Manufacturing PMI (May), Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup (EU Finance Ministers) meets in Luxembourg.  They are expected to discuss the digital euro project, among other things.

·       NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine, preparations for the July 11-12 NATO Summit, and Sweden’s bid to join the alliance.

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the Swiss Parliament via video call.

·       Brussels hosts the 7th Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region Conference. Attendees will be various EU ministers focused on rallying the international community to support a comprehensive and credible political solution in Syria as well as mobilizing humanitarian and financial aid.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (April)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

·       France Inflation (May)

·       Poland Inflation (May)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

·       Serbia Building Permits (April)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Norway Balance of Trade (May)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (May)

·       Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia GDP (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation (May), Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (May), FX Reserves (June 9)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya’s Parliament is set to debate a new tax amendment which has garnered widespread national opposition and led to violent clashes with security personnel.  Part of the dispute revolves around how members of parliament – among the best-paid in Africa – had agreed to a pay cut but in exchange for tax-free car grants, bigger pensions, and extra allowances.

·       The African Union launches the temporary site for the Great Museum of Africa.  The museum will be in Algiers, Algeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya 2024 budget presented to Parliament.  Uganda and Tanzania also will be presenting their budget proposals to their respective parliaments today.

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (May)

·       South Africa Building Permits (April)

·       Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Inflation (May)

Friday, June 16, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Mali and Head of MINUSMA, El Ghassim Wan, will be in New York to brief Council members, and he is expected to speak with reporters at the Security Council stakeout afterward.    

·       G7 Transport Ministers meeting in Shima, Japan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability and Macroeconomic Policy” at the Norges Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the IMF Economic Review joint conference on “The Future of Macroeconomic Policy,” Oslo, Norway

·       Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives "Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World" presentation before the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Norges Bank and IMF Economic Review "The Future of Macroeconomic Policy" C

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken may travel to Beijing (but more likely sometime next week) for meetings that may include a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Seen as a possible breakthrough moment that could finally establish a “floor” under the relationship between the two nations, which has been spiraling for years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       India Deposit Growth (June 2), FX Reserves (June 9), Bank Loan Growth (June 2)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (May), Balance of Trade (May), Unemployment (Q1)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (May), Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets in Luxembourg. Among the agenda items of issues to be discussed include VAT in the digital age package, the retail investment directive, and further retail investment regulation.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin may receive a delegation of African and Middle Eastern leaders to discuss a possible peace plan with Ukraine. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, & Risk Sarah Breeden speaks at the Westminster Business Forum in London.  The topic of her speech is “Managing Risk and Building Stability in UK Pension Markets.”

·       Eurozone Inflation (May), Labor Cost Index (Q1), Wage Growth (Q1), CPI (May)

·       Italy Inflation (May), CPI (May), Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Inflation (May)

·       Bulgaria Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Auto Production (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)

Saturday, June 17, 2023

Global

·       The Special Olympics World Summer Games commence in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Emperor Nauhito and Empress Masako will visit Indonesia through June 23rd. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Iceland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Global

·       Father’s Day is celebrated in a number of countries around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay celebrates Artigas’ Day, celebrating the birth of Jośe Gervasio Artigas, who is known as the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds referendums nationwide on the implementation of the OECD/G20 project that ensures large international corporations are taxed at least 15 percent.  They will also vote on the Federal Act which goes to reducing the countries uses of oil and natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mali holds a constitutional referendum.  It was initially scheduled for July 9, 2017 but delayed.  It was further delayed in 2021 following a coup d’état.   The vote is over creating new regions in line with a 2015 agreement with separatists in Northern Mali.

·       Today is Constitution Day in the Seychelles, marking the day the declaration of the referendum in 1993 making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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