The Global Week Ahead

Jul 7

July 7 - 14, 2024

Four major geopolitical events unfold this coming week, which we believe will be of significant focus and interest to global markets.

First, the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., takes place this week. The ongoing debate over President Biden's re-election bid adds a layer of complexity to the summit, where the leaders of the NATO member states will convene to deliberate on crucial issues, particularly the strategy for supporting Ukraine in the future. The potential inclusion of Ukraine in NATO will be a pivotal point of discussion, underscoring the summit's significance.

In addition, several Indo-Pacific leaders will be joining the meeting as NATO is expected to outline new plans on how to work more closely with Australia, Japan, and South Korea – something which is not playing well with China, Russia, or North Korea.

The second significant event his week is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveling to Moscow to participate in a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is Modi's first bilateral visit since being re-elected to a third term as India's Prime Minister. Traditionally, Indian Prime Ministers make their first visits to one of India's neighbors. However, Modi, who recently skipped the 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting Kazakhstan and India-China relations remain tense, is looking to balance China's growing relationship with Russia. The two leaders are expected to discuss expanding economic ties and purchasing Russian military hardware.

The third major event this week is the second round of French parliamentary elections. Following last week's near outright majority results for the far-right National Rally Party headed by Marine Le Pen, French far-left parties have been working with French President Emmanual Macron's centrist alliance to find a way to ensure Le Pen does not get that outright majority via the second round of voting – and, according to pollsters, it looks like they may have succeeded.

The fourth major event is what President Biden will do as a growing chorus of Democratic members of Congress and other Democratic leaders call for him to stand down from his re-election bid against former President Biden. As of this writing, Biden is insistent he will not withdraw because of physical and cognitive issues. However, the pressure seems to be mounting by the hour and the day, and most Washington observers believe it is highly likely he will have to withdraw, perhaps immediately after the NATO Summit.

Looking to the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching closely as Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies twice before Congress – before the Senate Banking Committee and before the House Financial Services Committee – giving the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. Also this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies on the state of the international financial system.

In terms of economic reports, the US CPI report will be of major focus this Thursday, and the PPI is out Friday. Additionally, the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

Looking at Asia, China releases its monthly inflation print on Wednesday, while Japanese wage figures, PPI figures, and the trade balance will be of particular focus to markets.

Moving to Europe, the U.K. monthly GDP report will be watched closely as the new Labour Majority takes power in Parliament.

Below is what else we are watching closely this week around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 7, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visits Tajikistan.

· Vanuatu Prime Minister Prime Minister Charlot Salwai travels to Beijing for meetings through July 12.

· Belarus Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhenkov travels to Beijing for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

· Tokyo holds gubernatorial elections.

· Today is Independence Day in the Solomon Islands. The country gained its independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

· In Pamplona, Spain the annual Running of the Bulls takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Leaders’ Summit begins in Abuja, Nigeria. In advance of the meetings, the military regimes of Niger, Mali, and Burkino Faso have announced they are quitting the organization “permanently.”

· Today is Saba Saba Day in Tanzania, celebrating the unification of the country and its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 8, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

· The UN’s International Maritime Organization meets in London through July 12.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 64th Mercosur and Associated States Summit begins in Asunción, Paraguay. Leaders from the five full member countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) along with the associated member countries (Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru). Argentine President Javier Milei is going to skip the meeting to avoid having to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula), whom he has called “an angry communist” and “corrupt.” Milei is sending his foreign minister, Diana Mondino, instead. But in an act further enraging Lula, Milei is scheduled to travel to Brazil to meet with Lula’s political opponent, Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUN

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations JUN/ Consumer Credit Change MAY/ Used Car Prices YoY JUN

· Colombia Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan and the Philippines are scheduled to hold high-level talks between their respective foreign ministers and defense ministers in Manila. It is expected a deal will be reached allowing each nation’s defense forces to visit each other’s territory - via a Reciprocal Access Agreement – and conduct coordinated drills, further deepening defense cooperation.

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang will host Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in China through July 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY MAY/ Overtime Pay YoY MAY/ Current Account MAY/ Bank Lending YoY JUN

· Australia Home Loans MoM MAY/ Investment Lending for Homes MAY

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Russia for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is traditionally an annual summit but since the War on Ukraine was launched by Putin, there has been questions about the future of Russia-Indian relations.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Internal market and industry) in Budapest, Hungary through July 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Jonathan Haskel gives a speech at Kings College.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Data Analytics Transformation/Chief Data Officer James Benford gives a speech at the FCA Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DiFoR) Conference in London.

· Ireland Construction PMI JUN

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade MAY

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Final Q1

· France Current Account MAY/ Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

· Greece Balance of Trade MAY

· Turkey Auto Production YoY JUN/ Auto Sales YoY JUN

· Hungary Budget Balance JUN

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

CIA Director Bill Burns is expected to travel to Qatar to join negotiations over the Gaza hostage situation and a possible breakthrough on a ceasefire.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence JUN/ Interest Rate Decision

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Private Bank Lending YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves JUN

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Global

· The G7 Science and Technology Ministers will meet in Bolognia and Forlí, Italy, through July 11.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington.

· Today, Argentina celebrates Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1816 when the country declared its independence from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will deliver the Semimanual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech entitled “Financial Inclusion: Past, Present, and Hopes for the Future” at the Financial Inclusion Practices and Innovation Conference in Washington,

· Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will present the annual testimony to Congress on the state of the international financial system before the House Financial Services Committee.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Promoting an Inclusive Financial System” at the Financial Inclusion Practices and Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index JUN/ Redbook YoY JUL/ Fed Barr Speech/ Fed Chair Powell Testimony/ Fed Bowman Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUL/ Treasury Secretary Yellen Testimony

· Mexico Consumer Confidence JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Auto Exports YoY JUN/ Auto Production YoY JUN/ Core Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thai Minister of Foreign Affairs Maris Sangiampongsa will visit China through July 10.

· Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele makes an official visit to China through July 15. China has been eager to establish stronger economic and military ties with the island nation in the hoping of using its port to support Chinese naval operations.

· Today is Palau Constitution Day, celebrating the day when the country passed a new constitution modeled on the US Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change JUL

· Philippines Unemployment Rate MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUN

· China Vehicle Sales YoY JUN

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales YoY JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 75th Anniversary NATO Summit begins in Washington, D.C., and runs through July 11. The main topics for discussion will be Ukraine’s prospects for joining NATO, how to continue supporting Ukraine’s war efforts, and how to deal with Russia. In addition, NATO is planning to release its first joint document on expanding cooperation with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

· The new UK Parliament meets for the first time since last week’s elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a video message at a digital euro event organized by the Central Bank of Cyprus.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a speech on the Financial Stability Board, Regulatory Oversight Committee, and Global LEI Foundation Conference in London.

· Bank of England Executive Director, Insurance Supervision Gareth Truran gives a speech at the Insurance Asset Risk Webinar.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY JUN

· Hungary Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Slovakia Balance of Trade MAY

· Greece Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Ireland Industrial Production YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Global

· OPEC releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Bogota, Colombia, preparatory hearings begin in the trial of ex-president Alvaro Uribe, accused of bribing witnesses and fraud.

· The Bahamas celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country gained its independence from the UK in 1973.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will deliver the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

· Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges” at the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists, Adelaide, South Australia.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUL/05/ MBA Purchase Index JUL/05/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Wholesale Inventories MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUL/05

· Brazil Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Paraguay Balance of Trade JUN

· Ecuador Balance of Trade MAY

· El Salvador Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Peru Balance of Trade MAY

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals YoY MAY/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· South Korea Unemployment Rate JUN

· Japan PPI YoY JUN/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook JUN

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade MAY

· Australia Building Permits MoM Final MAY/ Private House Approvals MoM Final MAY/ RBA Simon Speech

· China Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ PPI YoY JUN

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence JUN

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate MAY

· India M3 Money Supply YoY JUN/28

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at Asia House in London.

· Romania Balance of Trade MAY

· Slovakia Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Turkey Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

· Italy Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Slovenia Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Greece Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Ukraine Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Russia Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The International Monetary Fund will discuss Egypt's Extended Fund Facility for its third review.

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Jordan Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Israel Consumer Confidence JUN

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Tanzania Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Mozambique Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Thursday, July 11, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

· The International Energy Administration releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta CEO & President Raphael Bostic will give the keynote “Call to Action” speech at the National Credit Union Administration’s DEI Summit 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

· Brazil Retail Sales YoY MAY

· USA Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ CPI JUN/ Initial Jobless Claims JUL/06/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change JUL/05/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement JUN/ Fed Balance Sheet JUL/10

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence JUN

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Beijing, the China International Development Cooperation Agency holds the 2nd Conference of the Forum on Global Action for Shared Development through July 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation YoY JUN

· Japan Machinery Orders YoY MAY/ Foreign Bond Investment JUL/06/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUL/06/ Machine Tool Orders YoY JUN

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations JUL

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment APR

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Consumer Confidence JUN

· Malaysia Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Interest Rate Decision

· China New Yuan Loans JUN/ M2 Money Supply YoY JUN/ Outstanding Loan Growth YoY JUN/ Total Social Financing JUN

· Sri Lanka PPI YoY MAY

· Indonesia Car Sales YoY JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through July 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance JUN/ GDP YoY MAY/ Goods Trade Balance MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY MAY/ Balance of Trade MAY/ Construction Output YoY MAY/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker JUN

· Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN

· Romania Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Slovakia Construction Output YoY MAY

· Turkey Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Foreign Exchange Reserves JUL/05

· Ireland Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Belarus Inflation Rate YoY JUN

· Russia Current Account Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production YoY MAY/ Mining Production YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY MAY

Friday, July 12, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on draft resolutions concerning BINUH - United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti, and UNMHA - UN Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement. Afterwards, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI JUN/ Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY JUN

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade JUN

· Malaysia Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Japan Capacity Utilization MAY/ Industrial Production Final MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, celebrating when the Berlin Congress recognized the nation as independent in 1878.

The Global Week Ahead

July 7 - 14, 2024

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