The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

January 7 - 14, 2024

The most significant event for markets globally in the coming week is without a doubt Taiwan's presidential elections on January 13.   The last set of polls to be released suggest it will be a close race. Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, was leading Kuomintang (KMT) Party candidate Hou Yu-ih by five points – but Hou and the KMG appeared to be moving up in the polls. Public polling is banned by law for ten days before the election to avert disinformation campaigns (mainly from China), which could confuse voters, so the last set of polls to be released was on January 2. Markets will closely watch Beijing's reaction to the election, especially if the DPP wins the presidency. Beijing sees the DPP as the most resistant to reunification, and the KMT is seen as more open to the idea.  For an excellent preview of the elections, we recommend watching this discussion led by our colleague and Brookings Institution Director of the Thornton China Center, Ryan Hass.

Also next week, the situation in Gaza will continue to dominate headlines as leading Western diplomats – including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock crisscross the Middle East seeking to restart negotiations over the release of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas as well as trying to reduce growing tensions in the region which have intensified in the last week following the killing of senior Hamas militant leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon (enraging Iranian-proxy militia Hezbollah leadership who Nasrallah was under the supposed protectorate of). 

Additionally, markets are watching closely for what will happen in the coming week in the Red Sea to whether Houthi forces will attempt to ramp up attacks on commercial shipping.  The spot rate for shipping goods between Asia and Europe has jumped 173% since mid-December. 

Here in the US, Congress returns late Monday night following the Christmas and New Year break to face an intense two weeks to figure out appropriations bills or face a government shutdown. At this point, we see it as almost impossible they will successfully get what needs to be done, and unless they approve another short-term budget extension (which House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) opposes), a shutdown is likely. 

Added to this is the ongoing and time-sensitive vote for a military aid package to Ukraine and Israel. A vote has been complicated by Republicans' demands that US border security and immigration provisions be included. Senate Democrats and Republicans have been bitterly split on how – and if – such provisions can be achieved.

Moving to the global economic outlook, markets will focus on the US inflation report later this week and inflation reports from Japan and China. China will also be reporting trade data later in the week. Looking at Europe, the UK will report GDP figures while Germany reports important trade figures and factory orders.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 


Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.


Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, January 8, 2024

Global

  • The IMF Executive Board meets to review the extended credit facility to Mozambique.


Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Rotary Club of Atlanta.

  • US LMI Logistics Managers Index (December), Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Consumer Credit Change (November), Used Car Prices (December)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Mexico Consumer Sentiment (December)

  • Chile Inflation (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (December)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (November)

  • El Salvador Inflation (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China FX Reserves (December)

  • Philippines Industrial Production (November)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (December)

  • Singapore FX Reserves (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment (December), Retail Sales (November), Consumer Confidence (December), Consumer Inflation (December), Industrial Sentiment (December), Retail Sales (November), Selling Price Expectations (December), Services Sentiment (December)

  • Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • France FX Reserves (December)

  • UK BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

  • Romania Retail Sales (November)

  • Hungary Retail Sales (November)

  • Switzerland Inflation (December), Retail Sales (November), CPI (December)

  • Slovakia Retail Sales (November)

  • Bulgaria Retail Sales (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • German airline Lufthansa will resume flights to and from Tel Aviv.  They had suspended service after the attack by Hamas on civilians in October.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) chaired by Ghana will meet.  They are expected to discuss the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. 

The semi-autonomous Puntland State in Somalia is expected to choose a new President.  There has been widespread violence leading up to the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

South Africa FX Reserves (December) ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)

Tanzania Inflation (December)

 

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

In Peru, protesters will demonstrate to commemorate protesters killed in clashes with security forces in January 2023. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Redbook (January 6), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January), API Crude Oil Stock Change (January 5)

  • Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Building Permits (November)

  • Mexico Inflation (December), Auto Exports (December), Auto Production (December)

  • Colombia Inflation (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Household Spending (November), CPI (December)

  • South Korea Current Account (November)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Italy Unemployment (November)

  • Australia Building Retail (November), Building Permits (November)

  • Philippines Unemployment (November)

  • Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Unemployment (November)

  • Germany Industrial Production (November)

  • France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

  • UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

  • Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Hungary Budget Balance (December), Industrial Production (November), Balance of Trade (November)

  • Ireland Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Switzerland Unemployment (December), FX Reserves (December)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (November), Unemployment Rate (November)

  • Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)

  • Greece Balance of Trade (November)

  • Ukraine Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Sales (December)

  • Israel Business Confidence (December), FX Reserves (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

  • The World Economic Forum’s (WEC) Global Risks Report is published in advance of the WEC World Economic Forum being held in Davos next week.

  • The IMF Executive Board meets to review the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility to Jordan.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • CNN will host a presidential primary in Iowa in advance of the Iowa Presidential Caucus on January 15.

  • The US House Homeland Security Committee is expected to commence impeachment proceedings against Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will make keynote remarks at "2024 Economic Outlook with New York Fed President John C. Williams" at the New York Fed.

  • US MBA Mortgage Market Index (January 5), Wholesale Inventories (November), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (January 5)

  • Brazil Car Production (December)

  • Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

  • El Salvador PPI (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Average Cash Earnings (November), Overtime Pay (November)

  • South Korea Unemployment (December)

  • Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (November)

  • Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), FDI (October)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

  • Malaysia Unemployment (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a speech at the Spain Investor Day in Madrid, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will participate in a virtual Q&A on X.

  • France Industrial Production (November)

  • Italy Retail Sales (November)

  • Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

  • Greece Industrial Production (November)

  • Ireland Unemployment (December)

  • Slovakia Industrial Production (November)

  • Bulgaria Construction Output (November), Industrial Production (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (November), Unemployment (November), Participation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Constitutional Court of the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to formally certify the results of the recent election, confirming that incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi has, in fact, been elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Global

  • The International Court of Justice is expected to hold a hearing in response to South Africa’s accusation that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.  The hearing is expected to last through January 12. 

  • The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, is due to make his initial court appearance on tax charges in Los Angeles, where he will be arraigned on three felony and six misdemeanor tax offenses.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Core Inflation (December), CPI (December), Initial Jobless Claims (January 6), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (January 5), Monthly Budget Statement (December)

  • Brazil Inflation (December)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (November)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

  • Argentina Inflation (December)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Pakistan’s Finance Ministry meets with the IMF to discuss the release of the next $700 million tranche as part of its loan program to the country.

  • Representatives from the International Monetary Fund will visit Sri Lanka for an economic assessment.

  • China New Yuan Loans (December), M2 Money Supply (December), Outstanding Loan Growth (December), Total Social Financing (December)

  • Japan FX Reserves (December), Coincident Index (November), Leading Economic Index (November)

  • South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • New Zealand Building Permits (November)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Economic Bulletin

  • Germany Current Account (November)

  • Italy Industrial Production (November)

  • Hungary PPI (December)

  • Spain Industrial Production (November)

  • Slovakia Construction Output (November)

  • Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Belarus Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (December)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (January 5)

  • Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Manufacturing Production (November) 

 

Friday, January 12, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a fireside chat before the virtual 2024 Regional Economic Conditions Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

  • US PPI (December), Quarterly Grain Stocks – Soy/Corn/Wheat (December), WASDE Report, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January 12)

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (December), PPI (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Japan Current Account (November), Bank Lending (December), Eco Watchers Survey (December)

  • India Inflation (December), Manufacturing Production (November), Bank Loan Growth (December 29), FX Reserves (January 5)

  • Australia Home Loans (November), Investment Lending for Homes (November)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

  • Sri Lanka PPI (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip Lane will give a speech followed by a Q&A at the REBUILD Annual Conference - Post-Pandemic Economic Governance and Next Generation EU in Dublin, Ireland.

  • France Inflation (December), Household Production (December)

  • UK GDP (November), Goods Trade Balance (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

  • Spain CPI (December) Inflation (December)

  • Poland Balance of Trade (November), Current Account (November)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (November)

  • Greece Inflation (December)

  • Hungary Inflation (November)

  • Serbia CPI (December), Inflation (December)

  • Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q3), Industrial Production (November), Inflation (December), Current Account (November)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)
    Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Current Account (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Qatar GDP (Q3)

  • Oman M2 Money Supply (November)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ghana Inflation (December)

  • Botswana Inflation (December)

  • Mozambique Inflation (December)

  • Angola Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December) 

 

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Vehicle Sales (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Sunday, January 14, 2024 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Comoros holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Denmark’s Queen Margrethe II will formally abdicate, allowing Crown Prince Frederik to become the King.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly
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