The Global Week Ahead: December 4 - 11, 2022

Christmas may be just around the corner, but there are a lot of events of note this week around the world. Canada will be hosting the COP15 Summit on Biodiversity this week.  Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Saudi Arabia for bilateral meetings after China holds a memorial service for the recently deceased former President Jiang Zemin. A memorial in his honor will be held in Beijing but closed to the public as COVID cases continue to spike nationwide and lock-downs widen.  Meanwhile, we will see the run-off Senate election in Georgia, deciding if the Senate is tied or if Democrats get a one-seat majority.  

On the global economic agenda this week, it seems every major nation will be releasing producer price index (PPI) data. We will be watching a number of key US economic data releases, including the PPI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. We also will be getting inflation data from China, industrial production from Germany, and trade data from key economies. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, December 4, 2022:

Global

·       The 33rd OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting was held in Vienna, Austria.  They decided not to increase production the face of new COVID lock-downs in China and Russia’s growing struggles to sell oil on the open market.

·       Today is “National Francis Day”  celebrating all of us named Francis.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will begin a two-day visit to India to discuss bilateral security and trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, December 5, 2022:

Global

·       International Monetary Fund strategy chief Ceyla Pazarbasioglu will travel to China this week for high-level meetings to urge Beijing to speed up debt restructuring for countries in debt to China via Belt & Road Initiative programs.  Chinese President Xi Jinping promised at the recent G20 Summit to work on debt treatment.  China is the largest sovereign creditor in the world.

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) meets in Geneva, Switzerland, to review the new pandemic accord.

·       13th United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) International Debt Management Conference begins in Geneva, Switzerland, and it continues through December 7th.

·       The UN Security Council holds a briefing on the Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da'esh/ISIL (UNITAD). Later in the day, they scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Latin American leaders gather for the Annual Mercosur Summit in Uruguay (through December 6th).  Most of the Mercosur members are upset over Uruguay negotiating to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership without them.  There is a slight risk Uruguay will be suspended from Mercosur.

·       EU and U.S. policymakers will convene for the third EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council summit, at which they will discuss ongoing collaboration and priorities for 2023, including finding a solution to trade disputes surrounding the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.

·       Georgia holds its runoff election for the US Senate seat between Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker.

·       The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit is being held today and tomorrow.  A number of leading CEOs and senior Washington officials will be speaking.  The agenda can be seen HERE.

·       Haiti celebrates Discovery Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November), ISM Non-Manufacturing Orders (November), Factory Orders (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November)

·       Canada Building Permits (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November), Exports (October)m PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc will visit South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol to discuss expanding bilateral security and economic relations and to celebrate three decades of diplomatic ties. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services PMI and Caixin Composite PMI (November)

·       India S&P Services and Composite PMIs (November)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services and Composite PMIs (November)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November), Retail Sales (October)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (November)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (November)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (November), S&P Global Services and Global Composite PMIs (November), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November), Company Gross Profits (Q3)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The newly agreed to EU price cap on Russian oil enters into effect.

·       The Eurogroup meets to discuss the overall economic and fiscal situation in the euro area and prospects for reforming the EU economic governance framework.

·       EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels.

·       The Netherlands celebrates St. Nicholas Eve.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde attends a High-Level Seminar for Central Bank Governors organized by the IMF Singapore Regional Institute (STI) and Southeast Asian Central Banks (SEANCEN) Centre in Siem Reap, Thailand.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in the Eurogroup meetings in Brussels

·       Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs (November), Retail Sales (October)

·       Germany Services and Composite PMIs (November)

·       France Services and Composite PMIs (November), Retail Sales (October)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Services and Composite PMIs (November), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

·       Russia Services and Composite PMIs (November)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (October)

·       Spain Services and Composite PMIs (November)

·       Italy Services and Composite PMIs (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Lebanon’s caretaker cabinet meets for the first time in six months.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November), PPI (November), CPI (November)

·       Lebanon BLOM PMI (November)

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

·       Israel Business Confidence (November), Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Bahrain Private Sector Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·      Nigeria is expecting large protests in response to arrests of a student accused of defaming Nigeria’s First Lady.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Global PMIs (November)

• Nigeria's Balance of Trade (July/August/September)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

Tuesday, December 6, 2022:

Global

·       Canada hosts COP15, the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).  

·       St. Nicholas Day is celebrated by the Roman Catholic and other Christian faiths.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The judges of the corruption case against Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will announce their verdict. 

·       President Biden and US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will attend TSMC’s (Taiwan’s largest semiconductor company)“tool-in” ceremony in Phoenix, Arizona.  This facility is TSMC’s most advance plant in the US.  The “tool-in” is symbolic for the for the start of equipment installation at the facility, a critical step to begin operations.

·       The first auction of offshore wind development rights off the coast of California is to be held.

·       The Milken Institute’s Future of Health Summit is held in Washington, DC through December 8th.  It will feature more than 200 speakers from the senior ranks of the US Government and private sector.

·       Today is the end of the 60-day period for Chinese tech and chip companies to answer requests for information from the US Commerce Department.  Those companies that fail to do so will be added to the Entity List – the official US export control blacklist.

·       Today is the 81st anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Redbook (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index Current (November)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (November), Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

A memorial service will be held in Beijing in the Great Hall of the People for former President Jiang Zemin.  But will be closed to the public and broadcast live instead.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Household Spending (October)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (Q3)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

·       Thailand CPI (November)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November), Wholesale Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit is to be held Brdo pri Kranju, Albania.  The summit will take stock of progress on key investments under the Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans and discussed geostrategic issues. 

·       Ukraine celebrates Armed Forces Day.

·       EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to discuss protecting the EU budget against breaches of the principles of the rule of law in Hungary, €18 billion in financial support to Ukraine, and the Pillar 2 directive ensuring a global minimum level of taxation for multinational corporations.

·       EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecommunications) meets in Brussels.

·       The 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Free State of Ireland.

·       Spain celebrates Día de la Constitución (Constitution Day), a national holiday.

·       Finland celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN Meetings in Brussels.

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel “Programmes and policies toward gender equality” at Women’s in Finance Talk 2022 in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Germany Factory Orders (October), S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS  Construction PMI (November)

·       Eurozone S&P global Construction PMI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Egypt FX Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The South African Parliament will discuss and debate an independent panel’s report released November 30th accusing President Cyril Ramaphosa of misconduct and violating the constitution.  The scandal revolves a $4 million theft from Ramaphosa’s farm.

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will host Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on state visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa GDP (Q3)

·       Ghana PMI (November)

Wednesday, December 7, 2022:

Global

·       the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee, concerning Sudan. They are also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The American Enterprise Institute will hold a discussion on “The Proposed Securities and Exchange Commission Rule on the Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors”  This will likely give insights into the line of attack by House Republicans on ESG policy in the new Congress and pressure that will be brought to bear on financial regulators pursuing climate-related disclosure rules.

·       Bloomberg holds a Sustainable Business Summit in New York.

·       Today is the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 17 launch, the final moon landing by the US.

·       Guatemala kicks off the Christmas season with the annual “Burning of the Devil.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Markets Indexes/Applications/30 Mortgage Rate (November), Unit Labor Costs (Q3), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), Consumer Credit Change (October)

·       Canada Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Car Production (November),

·       Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Saudi Arabia through Dec. 9.

·       National security advisors from India and Central Asia will meet in New Delhi, India, to discuss regional connectivity, terrorism and the Afghanistan situation.

·       India celebrates Flag Day, a national holiday.

·       East Timor observes Memorial Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), FX Reserves (November)

·       India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Japan Central Bank Governor Nakamura Toyoaki speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Nagano, Japan.

·       Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (November)

·       Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (November)

·       Australia GDP (Q3), Building Permits (October), Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack

·       Philippines Unemployment Figures (October) Industrial Production (October), FX Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Russia's Presidential Council for Human Rights.

·       European defense ministers meet at the annual European Intervention Initiative in Oslo, Norway to discuss regional security issues.

·       France's Court of Justice will begin hearing a lawsuit against French energy giant TotalEnergies over Ugandan oil projects.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen Delivers a keynote speech on the occasion of the 120th anniversary of Bocconi University.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives a virtual speech at the Global Perspective 2022 Conference sponsored by the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives the keynote speech at LBS-AQR Insight Summit organized by the AQR Asset Management Institute at London Business School in London 

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a virtual speech at the Kanagroo Group debate on the revised CRD6/CRR3 package.

·       Eurozone GDP (Q3), Employment Change (q3)

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (November), BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), FX Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)

·       Poland FX Reserves (November), Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November), FX Reserves (November)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (November)

·       Russia FX Reserves (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (November), Loan Growth (October), M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Oman Budget Balance (October)

·       Israel FX Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       A Kenyan panel will meet to discuss whether to remove from office four election commissioners who declined to certify President William Ruto's election victory.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (November)

·       Mauritius Inflation (November), FX Reserves (November)

·       Seychelles Inflation Data (November) 

Thursday, December 8, 2022:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA)/LRA. 

·       The Roman Catholic Church celebrates the Feast of the Immaculate Conception globally.

·       Buddhists in Japan celebrate Bodhi Day, also known as Rohatsu.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Treasury Department holds a virtual meeting of the Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance to discuss climate-related financial risk.

·       The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a virtual meeting to discuss account statement disclosures entitled "Do client statements adequately serve investors?"; Discussion regarding corporate tax transparency and single-stock exchange-traded funds.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Jobless Numbers (First Week of December)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (October)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s Gujarat state – the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi – will announce election results. The outcome of the vote will help set the tone for the 2024 national election where Modi will seek a 3rd term as Prime Minister.

·       Uzbekistan celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan GDP Figures (Q3), Current Account (October), Eco Watchers Survey Current and Outlook (November)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Brad Jones Speech on “The Economics of a Central Bank Digital Currency in Australia: Some Considerations”; Reserve Bank Bulletin, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Defense Agency holds its annual conference in hybrid form.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through December 9th to discuss the full application of the Schengen acquis in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania. Ministers will assess progress on the regulation to prevent and combat child sexual abuse.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council meets to reach an agreement on two proposed directives: on improving working conditions in platform work and on the protection of workers from the risks related to the exposure to asbestos.

·        Lyon, France, begins the four-day Fête des Lumières.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded welcome address at the Sixth Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) "Addressing Financial Stability Challenges" 

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde attending the pre-opening of the exhibition of Rosemarie Trockel at Museum für Moderne Kunst in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (October), Inflation Figures (November), Budget Balance (November)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (December)

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account (Q3), Manufacturing Production (October)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, December 9, 2022:

Global

·       Today is UN Genocide Prevention Day and the 74th anniversary of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and the D.R. Congo sanctions.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Union employees of the New York Times is expected go on strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US PPIs (November), Fed’s Quarter Financial Accounts, WASDE  Report (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the US Department of Agriculture), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), Wholesale Inventories (October), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (December), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Michigan Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Canada Capacity Utilization (Q3)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (November), Business Confidence (December)

·       Argentina Inflation (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and Australia will hold "two-plus-two" security talks focused on North Korea and China. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India FX Reserves (November)

·       Thailand FX Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat "Challenges for banks in a new operating environment" with Mr. Herodotou, Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, at the 10th Cyprus Banking Forum & Fintech Expo in Nicosia, Cyprus.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel session entitled "Greek Banking Sector – Growth and Development Outlook" at 24th Invest in Greece Forum "Sustaining Growth and Investment Momentum" organized by Capital Link in New York. 

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (November), GDP (Q3)

·       Poland Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Inflation Rate (November), Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Tanzania celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

·       Rwanda PPI (October) 

Saturday, December 10, 2022:

Global

·       The Noble Prize Award ceremony is held in Oslo, Norway.

·       Today is International Human Rights Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Heisman Trophy is announced for the most outstanding player in US college football..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia hosts the first round of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) in Brisbane.  The negotiations, involving 14 nations, will go until December 15th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq celebrates Victory Day marking the victory over ISIS.  It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Rwanda Inflation Rate (November)

Sunday, December 11, 2022:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA’s Artemis I due to splashdown back down on Earth.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets today and tomorrow seeking to reach a political agreement on fishing opportunities in EU and non-EU waters for 2023. They will also discuss the market situation, CAP strategic plans, geographical indications and quality schemes, animal welfare, as well as the sustainable use of plant protection products and front-of-pack labelling.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s deadline for the formation of a new government under Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burkina Faso celebrates Proclamation of Independence Day

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.