The Global Week Ahead: July 31-August 2022
This week, Asia will get a lot of focus both politically and economically. US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is expected to visit Taiwan in the face of heavy criticism from China. She will be the highest-ranking US official to visit the island nation in decades. Meanwhile, ASEAN Foreign Ministers will gather in Cambodia as well as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. This all happens as the markets brace for a flood of major economic data reports from across the Indo-Pacific region.
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds on, global leaders and markets will watch to see if grain shipments will finally begin to ship from Ukrainian ports. And in the US, the US Senate will seek to pass a hefty climate/energy/tax “Reconciliation” package as markets closely watch Friday’s jobs numbers and signs of further economic downturn. Here is what we are watching in the coming week:
Sunday, 31 July 2022:
Global
Nothing of significance to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) continues her visit to the Indo-Pacific which may include a controversial visit to Taiwan. She is also visiting Japan, Indonesia, and Singapore.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
The 55tth ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to attend.
Economic Reports/Events –
China NBS PMI Composite (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Russia celebrates Navy Fleet Day. President Putin is expected to attend a parade in St. Petersburg.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia GDP figures (Q2)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Senegal holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events
Nothing significant to report.
Monday, 1 August 2022:
Global
The UN holds the 10th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in New York.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
US Southern Command holds PANAMAX 2022 exercise in San Antonio, Texas through August 12th. The exercise brings together military representatives from seven Caribbean and South American countries to better plan for crises.
Jamaica marks Emancipation Day, the day African slaves in British colonies were granted freedom from slavery.
The US House of Representatives is out of session for the month of August. The US Senate is in session this week and will seek to pass a Budget Reconciliation bill.
Economic Reports/Events –
US ISM Index (July)
Brazil central bank market readout, balance of trade (July)
Mexico Business Confidence (July), FX reserves (June), S&P manufacturing PMI (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Operation Garuda Shield military exercise to being in Indonesia. It will include troops for the US, Singapore, Australia, and Japan.
Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih visits India for four days.
China marks the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
China’s latest amendments to anti-monopoly laws go into effect.
China to drop taxes on 98 percent of Afghan imports and resume issuing visas to Afghans.
Cook Island holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Korea exports (July)
China Caixin PMI (July)
Thailand Markit manufacturing PMI (July)
Taiwan Markit manufacturing PMI (July)
Malaysia Markit manufacturing PMI (July)
Vietnam Markit manufacturing PMI (July)
South Korea Markit manufacturing PMI (July)
Philippines Markit manufacturing PMI (July)
India Markit manufacturing PMI (July)
Indonesia Markit manufacturing PMI (July), CPI (July)
Hong Kong GDP (Q2)
Australia manufacturing PMIs (July), inflation gauge (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
The EU’s 15 percent voluntary demand reduction target for natural gas goes into effect until March 31, 2023.
Germany expected to halt purchases of Russian coal.
Hungary begins export ban on fuels.
Switzerland celebrates National Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
The UK marks St. Andrew’s Day (A bank holiday in Scotland)
In the UK, BT and Openreach union members set to strike for 24 hours over a pay dispute. They also struck this past Friday for 24 hours.
Germany retail sales (June), S&P/BME manufacturing PMIs (July)
Spain retail sales (June), S&P manufacturing PMIs (July)
Italy S&P manufacturing PMIs (July)
France S&P manufacturing PMIs (July)
Eurozone S&P manufacturing PMIs (July), unemployment rate (June)
Russia monetary policy report
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey’s Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
The corruption trial of former South African President Jacob Zuma resumes in Johannesburg.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa manufacturing PMI (July)
Angola gross reserves (July)
Tuesday, 2 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Missouri holds US Republican gubernatorial primary.
Washington State holds a congressional primary.
US Republican senatorial, congressional, and state primaries in Arizona.
Michigan holds a Republican gubernatorial primary and four congressional primaries.
Kansas holds vote on state constitution regarding abortion and Republicans hold primary for gubernatorial candidate and other candidates for November elections.
Argentina’s transportation workers expected to hold nationwide strike.
Economic Reports/Events –
US JOLTS Report (June), total vehicle sales (July)
Brazil industrial production (June)
Canada S&P manufacturing PMI (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
South Korea to launch first lunar mission.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Korea CPI (July)
Hong Kong retail sales value (July), retail sales volume (June)
Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)
Central Bank of Australia rates decision, commodities price index (July)
Japan’s monetary base figures (July)
India imports/exports/balance of trade (July)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Russia to celebrate Airborne Forces Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Spain unemployment figures (July)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Yemen’s UN-mediated cease-fire between Saudi-led coalition and Houthi militants to expire.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Seychelles interest rate decision
South Africa non-farm payrolls, South African Reserve Bank quarterly bulletin for Q1
Wednesday, 3 August 2022:
Global
OPEC+ set to meet to discuss calls for increased crude oil output. The meeting will be held virtually.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia holds its 6th annual Fintech Conference. A number of leading US regulators are expected to speak and potentially lay out new plans for regulatory decisions impacting cryptocurrency, consumer banking, and other fintech-related services.
Economic Reports/Events –
US ISM services index (July), factory orders (June)
Brazil IPC-Fipe inflation figures (July), central bank interest rate decision, S&P composite, and services PMIs (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Hong Kong Markit PMI Composite (July)
Singapore Markit PMI Composite (July)
Australia services PMI (July), retail trade (Q2)
New Zealand household labor force survey (Q2)
India S&P global composite PMI (JulY0
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Spain unemployment figures (July)
Germany export and import figures and trade balance (June), S&P Services PMIs (July)
Spain S&P Services PMIs (July)
Italy S&P Services PMIs (July), retail sales (June)
France S&P Services PMIs (July)
Eurozone S&P Services PMIs (July), S&P Composite PMIs (July), PPI’s (June), retail sales (June)
Russia S&P services PMI (July)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia S&P PMI (July)
Turkey inflation rate (July), PPI (July)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Niger celebrates its Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Uganda PMIs (July)
Mozambique PMIs (July)
Kenya PMIs (July)
South Africa PMIs (July)
Ghana PMIs (July)
Thursday, 4 August 2022:
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The CPAC Conference begins in Dallas, Texas (through August 7th)
Tennessee holds a Republican congressional primary.
Economic Reports/Events –
US trade balance (June)
Canada building permits (June), international merchandise trade (June)
Mexico consumer confidence (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
China celebrates the Qixi Festival.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Bank of England rate decision (expected 50bp move to 1.75%)
Germany factory orders (June)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey FX reserves (July)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Zambia PMIs (July)
Friday, 5 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The island nation of St. Kitts & Nevis holds general elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
US employment numbers (July), non0farm payrolls (July), average hourly earnings (July), participation rate (July), consumer credit (June)
Canada unemployment figures (July)
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
The World Cosplay Summit is held in Nagoya, Japan.
Economic Reports/Events –
Indonesia GDP (Q2)
Philippines CPI (July)
Thailand CPI (July)
Singapore retail sales (June)
Taiwan CPI (July)
India exports/imports/trade balance (July)
Japan household spending (June), labor cash earning (June), lending and coincident index (June)
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
In the UK, approximately 150,000 Conservative Party members are due to receive their ballot to begin voting for the new leader (and new British Prime Minister)
Economic Reports/Events –
Germany industrial production (June)
France private sector payrolls (Q2), wages (Q2), industrial production (June)
Spain industrial production (June)
Italy industrial production (June)
Russia FX reserves (July)
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will travel to Sochi, Russia to meet Russian President Putin to discuss grain transport through the Black Sea and possible future Russian investments in Turkey, and the situation in Syria.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Mauritius inflation and gross reserves (July)
Seychelles inflation figures (July)
South Africa reserves and bond purchases (July)
Saturday, 6 August 2022:
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Bolivia celebrates Independence Day.
Jamaica celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing of significance to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
77th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima, Japan.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, 7 August 2022:
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia:
Political/Social Events –
China exports/imports/trade balance (July)
Economic Reports/Events –
Europe:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East:
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Ivory Coast celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.