The Global Week Ahead

February 5 - 12, 2023

China and its spy balloons are going to dominate the geopolitical agenda this week, particularly in Washington.  The US Congress was already scheduled to discuss and debate various hot-button China-focused issues this week, including a growing push to ban TikTok in the US.  The coming week will undoubtedly see a heavy focus on China’s spy balloon shot down by the US Air Force on Saturday and the implications for the future of US-China relations and global markets.  All this comes as President Biden gives his second State of the Union in front of the US Congress Tuesday.

Also this week, the European Union will likely come to an agreement on a unified response to the green energy incentives granted by Congress last year via the Inflation Reduction Act.  This will come after the German Economic Minister and French Finance Minister travel to Washington for extraordinary meetings to defuse tensions over the issue.

On the global financial and economic front, following rate hikes by the US Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, markets will be listening closely as the heads of all three central banks participate in high-profile question-and-answer events.  Markets will also be watching unemployment figures later this week in the US. 

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, February 5, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador will hold local elections and vote on eight constitutional reforms being championed by President Guillermo Lasso.  These include judicial and political reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India holds the first G20 energy transition working group in New Delhi.

·       China will officially reopen its border to international travelers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU ban on Russian oil product imports enters into force alongside the G7 price cap which is expected to be set at $100 per barrel.

·       San Marino celebrates Liberation Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin to hold legislative elections.

·       Burundi celebrates Unity Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report

Monday, February 6, 2023:  

Global

·       the UN General Assembly will hold its 58th plenary meeting.  Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver remarks on his priorities for 2023. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on Ukraine. The Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, is expected to brief Council members on the situation in the country.  

·       The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) will launch the antimicrobial report (AMR), ‘Bracing for Superbugs: strengthening environmental action in the One Health response to antimicrobial resistance’ at the sixth meeting of the Global Leaders Group on Antimicrobial Resistance. The Global Leaders Group, which aims to accelerate political momentum, leadership, and action on AMR, will take place online and in-person 7-8 February in Barbados.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Ivey PMI (January)

·       Brazil Car Production (January), New Car Registrations (January)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cross-border travel between China and Hong fully resumes as COVID restrictions are pulled down.

·       47 Hong Kong democracy activists will go on trial after two years of delays. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Indonesia Full Year GDP (2022)

·       Thailand Inflation (January), CPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the state of play of EU-UK relations and Sweden’s priorities for its presidency of the EU.

·       In Oslo, Norway, Sweden’s and Finland’s defense ministers (Pål Jonson and Mikko Savola, respectively), will meet with the Deputy Secretary-General, Mircea Geonanā, of NATO as part of a  two-day security conference in Oslo dedicated to the war in Ukraine

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with ECB President Christine Lagarde, Werner Hoyer, President of the European Investment Bank, European Council President Charles Michel, Eurogroup President Paschal Donohue  in Brussels.

·       In the UK, nurses and ambulance workers – more than 10,000 workers – will go on the largest one-day strike in the UK history.  The nurses will also be on strike Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a virtual Q&A discussion economic issues.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (January), Factory Orders (December)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (January)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

·       UK New Car Sales (January), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (January)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will begin requiring oil tankers to have Protection and Indemnity Insurance if they want to cross the Turkish straits.  This is likely to impact oil prices as it will hit Russian and Ukraine shipments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January) 

Tuesday, February 7, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

·        International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi delivers speech at Chatham House, London entitled “The New Nuclear Order.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Biden will deliver his State of the Union Address before Congress.  He will lay out his agenda for 2023 and likely touch on themes we will hear in his re-election campaign.  Biden is also expected to call for greater regulation of technology, including stricter antitrust enforcement.

·       Grenada celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of the island country gaining independence from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will be interviewed by Carlyle Group Co-Executive Chairman David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington, DC.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech at the Mission Investors Exchange Banking on Financial Inclusion: A Hope Economic Mobility Forum” at Jackson State University in Jackson, Mississippi.

·       US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Redbook (February 4), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (February), Consumer Credit Change (December)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the CFA Québec.

·       Canada Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (January), Auto Production (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       El Salvador Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Newly installed New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins meets with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra.  They are expected to discuss security and economic issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (December), Overtime Pay (December), FX Reserves (January), Coincident Index (December), Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Australia Central Bank Rate Decision, Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Ai Group Industry Index (January)

·       Philippines Inflation (January), Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       Taiwan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (January)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Economic Minister Robert Habeck and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire will be in Washington, DC for meetings with the Biden Administration to discuss US green subsidies that were made law in the Inflation Reduction Act.  These meetings takes place two days before a Special European Summit to discuss how to retaliate against the incentives.

·       EU Competitiveness Ministers will hold an informal meeting through February 8th in Brussels.

·       In France, SNCF workers (train workers) will begin a two-day strike to protest against the government’s efforts to reform the pension system.

·       The EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council will meet. The meeting, the first since Moldova was granted EU candidate country status, in Brussels will be co-chaired by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Mr. Josep Borrell, and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Ms. Natalia Gavriliţa. The Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Mr. Olivér Várhelyi will represent the European Commission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a moderated webinar "Geldpolitik in Zeiten von Pandemie und Krieg" (Monetary policy in times of pandemic and war) hosted by Finanzwende e.V. 

·       German Industrial Production (December)

·       France Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Current Account (December), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4), FX Reserves (January)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (January), FX Reserves (January)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (January), BBA Mortgage Rate (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland FX Reserves (January)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (January)

·       Russia FX Reserves (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (January)

·       Israel Business Confidence (January), FX Reserves (January)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (January)

Wednesday, February 8, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal hosts their CFO Network Summit in New York.  New York Fed President John Williams will give remarks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jared Bernstein, a member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors and rumored to be close to being named the CEA’s Chair, will discuss the US economy at the Brookings Institution and the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Washington, DC.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will speak at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, DC.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the Arkansas State University Agribusiness Conference in Jonesboro, Arkansas.

·       US Wholesale Inventories (December), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February 3), WASDE Report

·       Chile Inflation (January)

·       Panama Balance of Trade (October & November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. begins an “official working visit” to Japan.  Marcos is seeking both stronger economic and security relations with Tokyo.

·       North Korea commemorates the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army. It is expected a large military parade will be held in Pyongyang with a possible speech from North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un who will likely talk about North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (January)

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Current Account (December), Bank Lending (January), Eco Watchers Survey (January)

·       India Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Australia Central Bank Chart Pack Released

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Malaysia Construction Output (Q4), Retail Sales (December)

·       Philippines FX Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Supreme Court to rule on the legality of the Northern Ireland protocol arrangements.

·       The Church of England will hold a general synod to decide whether blessings for gay marriages or civil partnerships should be permitted in England’s churches.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (December), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia GDP (December), Vehicle Sales (January), Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December), Real Wage Growth (November), Business Confidence (January), Corporate Profits (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December & January)

Thursday, February 9, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to Sudan sanctions. Also, this afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former FBI agent Charles McGonigal, who has been charged with working for sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, is expected to appear in federal court in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Initial Jobless Claims (February 4)

·       Brazil Inflation (January), Retail Sales (December)

·       Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

·       Paraguay Inflation (January)

·       Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim makes his first official visit to Thailand.  The agenda is expected to cover economic cooperation and regional security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January 27)

·       Taiwan Wholesale Prices (January), Inflation (January),

·       Australia Building Permits (December), Private House Approvals (December)

·       Philippines Industrial Production (December)

·       Malaysia Unemployment (December)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January), Electronic Retail Card Spending (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council will hold a special meeting through February 10th in Brussels.  The meeting will discuss the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, which is partly a response to the US’ green incentives passed into law in the Inflation Reduction Act.

·       In the UK, staff workers at universities across the country will go on strike for better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at Parliament’s Treasury committee session to discuss the Bank’s latest report.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos at the Foro Economia y Humanismo organized by Instituto Karol Wojtyla in Madrid.

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (January)

·       Ukraine Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation (January)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa President State of the Nation Address. Speaking to countries ongoing energy crisis is expected to be the main focus of his speech, and there is speculation Ramaphosa may declare a national state of disaster to fast-track government mitigation responses.  The energy regulator Nersa announced last month they will be hiking electricity prices by 19.65 percent starting in April as a result of the crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (December), Gold Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December)

Friday, February 10, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Biden will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) at the White House.  They are expected to discuss the US’s support for Brazil’s democracy following the recent attack on the Brazilian Congress.  Other issues will include climate change, food security, and regional security.

·       The US Financial Stability Oversight Board will meet.  Chaired by Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, the agenda includes the preliminary agenda includes discussing the Council’s priorities for 2023; the upcoming Treasury report on cloud services adoption in the financial sector; and the Council’s options for assessing and responding to financial stability risks, including nonbank financial company designations

·       Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will give opening remarks at the OCC’s Bank Merger Symposium in Washington, DC.

·       Fashion Week begins in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Waller will speak at the Global Interdependence Center’s conference “Digital Money, Decentralized Finance, and the Puzzle of Crypto” in La Jolla, California.  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will also speak.

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reports (February), Michigan Inflation Expectations Reports (February), Monthly Budget Statement (January)

·       Canada Employment Figures (January)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (February)

·       Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (January), PPI (January), New Yuan Loans (January), Outstanding Loan Growth (January), Total Social Financing (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Japan PPI (January)

·       India FX Reserves (February 3), Deposit Growth (January), Bank Lona Growth (January), Industrial Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Australia Central Bank Statement on Monetary Policy

·       Philippines FDI (November)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (January), FX Reserves (January)

·       Malaysia GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Ambulance workers are going out on strike, and BMA opens consultative strike ballot for NHS consultants.

·       Nice, France, begins the 150th Nice Carnival.  Multiple parades, parties, and exhibits are held through February 26th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a Twitter Q&A.

·       Germany Current Account (December), Inflation Rate (January)

·       UK GDP (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), Manufacturing Production (December), Goods Trade Balance (December), Industrial Production (December), Balance of Trade (December), Construction Orders (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Hungary Inflation (January)

·       Italy Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (December), Industrial Production (December), Participation Rate (December), Industrial Production (December)

·       Egypt Current Account (Q3), Inflation Rate (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria’s government has set today as a new deadline to turn in 200-, 500- and 1,000-Naira banknotes in currency swap.  The government was forced to extend the deadline after massive lines developed at banks and commercial activities ground to a halt nationally.

·       In Northern Mali, leadership of the al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group JNIM will reportedly hold meetings with armed groups in northern Mali over a non-aggression pact. UN Peacekeeping forces and the Malian junta have experienced worsening relations, and it is widely expected the UN will withdraw at some point in the near future. Additionally, there has been a break in French-Malian relations leading to the withdrawal of French forces, helping to fight off radical armed groups.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation (January)

Saturday, February 11, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chicago Auto Show begins in Chicago, Illinois.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Current Account (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal is bracing for a third day of demonstrations by teachers demanding higher wages.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran celebrates Islamic Revolution Day, marking the revolution of 1979, throwing the Shah out of power and instituting the Islamic Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 12, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Superbowl will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Berlin, Germany, holds a re-vote of the municipal elections held on September 26, 2022, following a court order forcing a re-vote.  The September elections were ruled as chaotic by the court, which said it was a “unique event in postwar German election history.”  The chaos came as the city held its annual marathon, which partially paralyzed the city.  Voters had to wait for hours to ca

·       Spain is bracing for a large protest march in Madrid by primary healthcare workers seeking better pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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