The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

August 6 - 13, 2023

This week, we are watching the meeting in Saudi Arabia Sunday of senior diplomats from 30 nations – including China – seeking to craft a 10-point peace plan proposal to end the war in Ukraine.  While Russia was excluded from the meeting, China’s eagerness to attend and play a critical role was the big news.  China is increasingly concerned about Russian and Ukrainian wheat and grain access, which is at risk due to Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Last week, Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain storage facilities destroyed an estimated 40 thousand tons of grain – mostly destined for African nations, China, and Israel –  driving up global grain prices by more than 5 percent.

To that point, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed late last week to travel to Turkey sometime this week (date not set yet) for meetings with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the possibility of restoring the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  Reports suggest Russia is now finding it harder and harder to sell its grain and other agricultural products and may want to return to the agreement. 

We are closely monitoring other key geopolitical events this week, including a likely no-confidence vote in the Indian Parliament for Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his handling of ethnic clashes on the Myanmar border.  We expect he will easily survive the vote.  And in Pakistan, as former Prime Minister Imran Kahn was arrested late last week, current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to dissolve Parliament on Wednesday and call for snap elections within the next 90 days.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.  He is expected to discuss the Ukraine War and urge Iran to end its weapons sales (especially drones) to Russia.  Iran is not likely to agree to step back, but it adds new pressure on Tehran to reconsider its support for Moscow.

In Latin America, Argentina holds a presidential primary vote on Sunday before the general elections in October.  The country is suffering from extraordinary inflation - 116 percent -- and voters are getting restless for a switch in political leadership.

On the economic radar screen this week, markets are keenly watching both US inflation numbers and China’s inflation figures and export/import numbers.  The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey is released on Tuesday in Europe, and the UK reports GDP figures on Friday.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 6, 2023

Global

  • Saudi Arabia hosts a meeting of high-level officials from 30 states – including China – to discuss how to craft a peace proposal to end the Ukraine War.  This meeting continues talks that began in June in Copenhagen, Denmark, aimed at unifying the West's and the Global South's positions regarding the broad framework for any future negotiations. Russia was not invited.   A third round of discussions is likely to be held in New Delhi in September.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, marking when the country declared its independence from Spain in 1825.

  • Jamaica celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it gained independence from the UK.

  • El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, celebrating the Divine Savior for whom the country is named.  It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.  He is expected to discuss the Ukraine War and urge Iran to stop selling weapons to Russia. 

  • APEC holds a high-level meeting on Health and the Economy in Seattle, Washington.

  • Today is the78th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Tourist Arrivals (July)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Economic Community of West African States' deadline for the military junta in Niger to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

     

Monday, August 7, 2023 

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Civic Day in Canada, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, FX Reserves (July), Leading Economic Index (June), Coincident Index (June)

  • Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)

  • Indonesia GDP (Q2),  FX Reserves (July)

  • Thailand Inflation (July)

  • Philippines FX Reserves (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

  • Qatar GDP (Q1)

  • Israel FX Reserves (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Côte d’Ivoire celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day the country won its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa FX Reserves (July)

 

Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

  •  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) Summit is held through August 9 in Belem, Brazil. Member states, including Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela, the US, and France, will attend.  The Focus of the talks will be how to attract investments, combat deforestation, protect Indigenous peoples, and encourage sustainable development in the face of climate change.  Belim is where the COP30 Summit will be held in 2025.

  • Mississippi holds gubernatorial primary elections.  The general election will be held on November 7, 2023, and runoff (if necessary) on November 28.

  • Ohio holds a ballot initiative that would require a 60 percent vote on future state constitutional amendments as well as expand the signature cure period.   

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President and current Federal Open Market Committee member Patrick Harker speaks at the Philadelphia Business Journal’s State of the Economy event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (July), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Total Household Debt (Q2), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (August), Wholesale Inventories (June)

  • Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

  • Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

  • Chile Inflation (July)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (July)

  • Colombia Inflation (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a no-confidence vote in the Parliament over ethnic violence in the northeastern state of Manipur.  It is unlikely to succeed.  Manipur is on the border with Myanmar and has been struggling with refugee challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), FX Reserves (July)

  • Japan Household Spending (June), Current Account (June), Bank Lending (July), Eco Watchers Survey (July)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (August), NAB Business Confidence (July), Building Permits (June)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), Inflation (July)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)

  • Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

  • Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The ECB releases their Consumer Expectations Survey

  • Germany Inflation (July), CPI (July)

  • France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

  • Hungary Inflation (July), Balance of Trade (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt FX Reserves (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Tanzania Inflation (July) 

 

Wednesday, August 9, 2023 

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US MBA Mortgage Index (August 4)

  • Canada Building Permits (June)

  • Brazil Retail Sales (June)

  • Mexico Inflation (July)

  • Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (June)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Additional Japanese trade restrictions on Russia, including on automobiles and other goods, will enter into force.

  • Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is likely to dissolve parliament and call for new elections within 90 days.

  • The Bank of Indonesia will host a one-day investment forum in Tokyo, presenting nine carbon neutrality-related projects open for investment.  This is the first time the central bank has hosted such an event in Japan. 

  • Today is the 78th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Nagasaki.

  • Singapore celebrates National Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (July), PPI (July)

  • Japan Machine Tool Orders (July)

  • South Korea Unemployment (July)

  • Philippines Unemployment (July)

  • New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UK RICS House Price Balance (July)

  • Italy Industrial Production (June)

  • Hungary  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Balance of Trade (June), Budget Balance (July)

  • Ukraine Inflation (July)

  • Russia Inflation (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Business Confidence (July), Budget Balance (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Kenya’s Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Thursday, August 10, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • A  Georgia judge in Atlanta will hear arguments on former President Donald Trump's bid to block an investigation of his alleged attempts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.

  • Ecuador celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will offer welcoming remarks at the Fed Communities event via webinar.

  • US Inflation (July), CPI (July), Unemployment (August 4), Monthly Budget Statement (July)

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Paraguay Inflation (July)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (June)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia hosts the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan PPI (July)

  • India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

  • Philippines GDP (Q2)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The German states of Bayern and Hessen hold local parliamentary elections.

  • The launch window for Virgin Galactic’s Galactic 02 opens.  It is the company’s second commercial space flight and the first to take private astronauts.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Italy Inflation (July), CPI (July)

  • Ireland Inflation (July)

  • Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (June), Construction & Industrial Outputs (June), Retail Sales (June)

  • North Macedonia PPI (June)

  • Belarus Inflation (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (July)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (June), Unemployment (June), FX Reserves (August 4)

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), Consumer Confidence (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (June), Mining Production (June), Manufacturing Production (June)

  • Namibia Inflation (July)

  • Rwanda Inflation (July)

  • Mozambique Inflation (July)

Friday, August 11, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US PPI (July), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August), Michigan Current Conditions (August), Michigan Inflation Expectations (August), WASDE Report

  • Brazil Inflation (July), IBC-Br Economic Activity (June), Business Confidence (August)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (June)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

  • El Salvador PPI (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The annual Malabar naval exercise — involving the United States, Japan, India, and Australia — will commence and last through August 22 off of Australia's east coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Industrial Production (June), Manufacturing Production (June),  Bank Loan Growth (July 28)

  • New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July), Food Inflation (July)

  • Singapore GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2)

  • Hong Kong GDP (Q2)

  • Thailand FX Reserves (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Current Account (June)

  • France Unemployment (Q2), Inflation (July)

  • UK GDP (Q2), Business Investment (Q2), Manufacturing Production (June), Goods Trade Balance (June), Construction Orders (Q2), Construction Output (June), Industrial Production (June), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

  • Italy Balance of Trade (June)

  • Spain Inflation (July), CPI (July)

  • Poland Balance of Trade (June), Current Account (June)

  • Serbia Inflation (July)

  • Kosovo Inflation (July)

  • Russia GDP (Q2), Balance of Trade (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Current Account (June), Retail Sales (June)

  • Jordan Inflation (July)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Chad celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Saturday, August 12, 2023 

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Six states in Malaysia hold elections.  More than 10 million people will likely vote in Keday, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan.   A total of 572 candidates are running for 245 state-level seats. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China New Yuan Loans (July), Outstanding Loan Growth (July), total Social Financing (July), M2 Money Supply (July), Vehicle Sales (July)

  • Indonesia Car Sales (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia celebrates Air Force Day.

  • Today in the UK is “the Glorious Twelfth” – the opening of grouse hunting season.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Sunday, August 13, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds presidential primary elections.  The general elections are on October 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

Francis Kelly
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