The Global Week Ahead

May 7-14, 2023

This week, markets will be watching Tuesday's meeting at the White House between President Biden and Congressional leaders for any breakthrough in the growing federal debt ceiling crisis.  The U.S. Treasury reported that the expected "X-Date" – the actual default date – has been moved up to June 1st.  However, according to Moody's, that date might slip a week to as far as June 8th.

This Thursday, G-7 finance ministers, central bankers, the heads of the World Bank and IMF, and the invited finance ministers of India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Singapore, gather in Japan to discuss financial system instability in the U.S. and Europe, debt problems in the developing world, and further support for Ukraine.

Elsewhere around the world this week, on Tuesday, Russia holds its annual Victory Parade marking the defeat of Nazi Germany.  But it is also seen as a venue where Russian President Vladimir Putin could reveal a more significant national mobilization in the War on Ukraine.  On Sunday, Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections.  Polls show the election is very close but leaning against the re-election of President Recep Erdogan – a loss that could see sweeping political and economic changes comes to the country.

On the global economic front, it is a reasonably quiet week for major economic reports.  Markets will be watching the Bank of England's monthly monetary policy committee meeting as the U.K. reports GDP figures.  They are expected to raise rates another quarter-point.  Also, this week, the U.S. reports CPI figures and the Michigan survey.  China and India report inflation figures and the Philippines and Malaysia report GDP.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will meet with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  Among the issues they are expected to discuss is “new areas of cooperation between New Delhi and the Gulf as well as the US and the rest of  Sullivan will also meet with senior officials from the UAE and India later in the week.

·       Chile holds its Constitutional Assembly election, choosing new members of the Constitutional Council to draft a new constitution. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand begins early voting for general elections.

·       Taliban interim Foreign Minister Muttaqi is in Pakistan for three-way talks with Foreign Minister Zardari and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on the crisis in Afghanistan.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul, South Korea, through May 8.  This is a significant show of strengthening relations between the two nations following a breakthrough agreement several months ago on reparations around forced labor in World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice President Han Zheng visits Portugal and the Netherlands after attending King Charles II’s coronation in London.

·       South Korean Prime Minister Han will meet his counterparts in Sweden, Austria, and Romania for discussions on bilateral cooperation, infrastructure, the defense industry, and security in the Korean Peninsula.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Arab League will host a meeting in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss further steps for Syria's potential reentry to the league, from which the country was suspended in 2011 because of its civil war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin will hold legislative elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, May 8, 2023 

Global

·       World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its May General Council Meetings today and tomorrow in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Today is Time of Remembrance and Reconciliation for Those Who Lost Their Lives during the Second World War, 8-9 May.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Syria (Chemical Weapons), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold consultations on the 1559 report (on the situation in Lebanon)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico's Supreme Court will release a ruling on the constitutionality of the first part of the government's "Plan B" electoral reform.

·       The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 13th annual China Business Conference through May 10th in Washington, DC.  A number of leading Biden Administration officials and members of Congress are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Wholesale Inventories (March), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Brazil Car Production (April), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese government will officially downgrade COVID-19 to a common infectious disease.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (April), Building Permits (March), Private House Approvals (March)

·       Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (April)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov in Moscow.  He will also attend the Russian Victory Parade on Tuesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a  keynote speech followed by Q&A at the New Paradigm Workshop - Resetting the Economy after the Crises organized by Forum New Economy in Berlin. 

·       Germany Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

·       Israel Business Confidence (April), FX Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko will appear in court where he faces criminal charges for defaming a former government official.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX reserves (April)

·       Tanzania inflation data (April)

·       Mauritius inflation data (April) 

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden hosts a meeting with the four leaders of Congress to discuss the looming debt ceiling “X-Date” – now estimated at June 1st.  Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Minority Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will discuss possible solutions to avoid a default on the national debt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a speech at the Economic Club of New York.

·       US Redbook (May 6th), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (May)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Inflation (April), Auto Production (April), Auto Exports (April)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       El Salvador Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), FX Reserves (April)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)

·       Australia’s Treasurer presents the annual federal budget, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May), Retail Sales (March)

·       Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Industrial Production (March)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia holds its Victory Day parade in Moscow, marking the day Nazi Germany was defeated.  It is expected President Vladimir Putin will use the event to rally the country to further commit to the war on Ukraine in the wake of the alleged Ukraine drone attack on the Kremlin last week.

·       In the UK, 1,400 security officers in the Unite union at Heathrow Airport begin a 48-hour strike in an ongoing dispute about pay. Separately, Unite members at GSK’s Ware factory begin a 49-hour walkout in a national pay dispute with the pharmaceutical company.

·       Guernsey celebrates Liberation Day, commemorating when the island was freed from German occupation in World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a  policy panel at IMF event 'Europe's Balancing Act: Taming inflation without a recession' in Berlin. 

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture at Hessischer Kreis e. V. at: Goethe University in Frankfurt.

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Current Account (March), FX Reserves (April)

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April), Halifax House Price Index (April), BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov hosts Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and Syrian Foreign Minister Mekdad in Moscow for “quadripartite” talks on normalizing ties between Turkey and Syria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (March)

·       Israel Budget Balance (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Federal Responses to Recent Bank Failures."

·       The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy, chaired by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), may hold a hearing on the Federal Reserve’s role in overseeing Silicon Valley Bank before its failure.  Warren and Ranking Member Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) sent a letter to the Federal Reserve’s Inspector General asking him to testify on his findings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Inflation (April), CPI (April), Monthly Budget Statement (April), MBA Indexes (May 5th)s

·       Canada Building Permits (March)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Kahn is going to be indicted for his alleged involvement in the Toshakhana corruption case.  Protests are expected in major cities as a result.

·       India is bracing for protests over the Karnataka state assembly elections.  Polls show a neck-and-neck competition between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition Indian National Congress.

·       ASEAN holds its 42nd Summit in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia. The two-day summit will focus on regional growth as well as a stronger implementation of the five-point consensus on Myanmar (which has been largely seen as ineffective) and collective measures to reduce tensions around the South China Sea with China.

·       Micronesia celebrates Constitution Day, which was ratified in 1979.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan FX Reserves (April), Coincident Index (March), Leading Economic Index (March)

·       South Korea Current Account (March), Unemployment Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s highest Military Authority, the Military Committee, will meet in person on 10 May 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the Military Committee, will preside over the meeting, which will be attended by the Allied Chiefs of Defense and their Invitee counterpart from Sweden.  They will discuss Russia’s War on Ukraine and NATO’s continued support for Ukraine.

·       EU member states' representatives will discuss a European Commission proposal for an 11th package of sanctions against Russia. 

·       In the UK, UK, the Public and Commercial Services union members working for HMRC in Glasgow and Newcastle over pay, pensions, job security, and redundancy terms. This is the first of a series of walkouts that are set to continue into June.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation (April), CPI (April)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)

·       Hungary Inflation (April)

·       Ukraine Inflation (April)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Bulgaria Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March), Construction Output (March)

·       Russia FX Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment (March), Industrial Production (March), Participation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema will be in Paris for meetings at the Paris Club on the country’s debt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana inflation data (April)

·       Rwanda inflation data (April) 

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet through Saturday in Niigata, Japan.  The main agenda items include Russia’s War on Ukraine and spillover effects on the global economy, climate change, and the state of the financial sector.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

·       OPEC releases its monthly report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Title 42, the US immigration policy allowing for the rapid expulsion to Mexico of illegal immigrants who cross the southern border, expires. US Homeland Security officials are expecting a new flood of migrants seeking to cross the border.

·       Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may launch a presidential exploratory committee today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks on Financial Stability and Climate Change at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Banco de Espana, and IE University, Madrid, Spain

·       US PPI (April), Initial Jobless Claims (May 6th)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (March)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Emperor and Empress host the official Spring Garden Party at the Palace.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (April), PPI (April), Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Current Account (March), Bank Lending (April), Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Philippines GDP (Q1)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       An informal meeting of EU Chiefs of Defense will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a talk at the scientific advisory board of the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF) in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a panel at the 20th edition of cycle of dialogues organized by Diario Madrid Foundation and Cercle d'Economia in Barcelona.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona.

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (April), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, Vehicle Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Inflation Report, Current Account (March), FX Reserves (May 5th)

·       Egypt Inflation (April)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema and African Continental Free Trade Area Secretary-General Wamkele Mene will speak at the Africa Debate investment conference in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South African mining output (march), Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Namibia inflation data (April)

·       Ghana Inflation (April)

Friday, May 12, 2023

Global

·       G-7 science and technology ministers to begin three-day meetings in Sendai, Japan.

·       G-7 education ministers to begin a four-day meeting in Toyama, Ishikawa, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will meet U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House. The meeting will focus on strengthening US-Spanish relations and the war in Ukraine. 

·       The 9th Annual Meeting of Heads of States of the Association of Caribbean States meets in Antigua, Guatemala. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor (and Vice Chair nominee) Governor Philip N. Jefferson participates on a panel on Monetary Policy Strategy at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford University, Stanford, California.

·       US Import Prices (April), Export Prices (April), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (May), WASDE Report

·       Brazil Inflation (April), Business Confidence (May)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       Canada New Motor Sales (March)

·       Argentina Inflation (April)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (march)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (March), Unemployment (March), Inflation (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (April), New Yuan Loans (April), Outstanding Loan Growth (April), Total Social Financing (April), M2 Money Supply (April), Current Account (Q1)

·       India Inflation (April), FX Reserves (May 5th), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in Stockholm to discuss the situation in Ukraine and EU-China relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Current Account (March)

·       UK GDP (March), Goods Trade Balance (March), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March), Construction Orders/Output (March), Business Investment (Q1)

·       France Inflation (April)

·       Spain CPI (April), Inflation (April)

·       Serbia Inflation (April)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (March)

·       Bulgaria Balance of Trade (March)

·       Russia Inflation (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (March)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Saturday, May 13, 2023 

Global

·       G-7 health ministers to begin two-day meetings in Nagasaki, Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a Commencement Address at the Daniel “Chappie” James Arena, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, Alabama.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Zelensky meets German Chancellor Scholz and President Steinmeier in Berlin.

·       Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Billstrom and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell co-chair the EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Stockholm to strengthen the bloc’s partnership with the region.

·       In the UK, members of the RMT rail union resume strike action across 14 train operators after rejecting the latest offer from the Rail Delivery Group.

·       The 2023 Eurovision Song Contest, one of the world’s largest televised events, begins in Liverpool, England.  The official host this year is Ukraine, but Liverpool is hosting on their behalf due to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Sunday, May 14, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       It is Mother’s Day in the US and Canada. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cambodia holds general elections.  Early voting began on May 7th. There is a risk of political protests and instability.

·       India’s Punjab Province holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bremen state election is held in Germany.

·       Albania holds local elections.

·       Italy holds the first round of municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will hold presidential elections and parliamentary elections.  Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a tough reelection bid against opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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