The Global Week Ahead
June 25 - July 2, 2023
In the wake of an astonishing and, quite frankly, bizarre, failed coup attempt in Russia by the mercenary Wagner Group, capitals and markets worldwide will undoubtedly be seeking answers as to what happens next in Moscow and Ukraine. NATO leaders will be gathering in the Hague this week to prepare for the NATO Summit (July 11-12) in Vilnius. Still, they will be talking and analyzing the situation in Russia closely.
Also this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will also deliver a speech at the Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin, China. We will be watching for any official Chinese assessments of the coup attempt and directional indicators for the next steps in the US-China relationship following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing last week.
In the EU, the European Council convenes to discuss various issues ranging from the War in Ukraine to a recently proposed EU Economic Security Strategy dealing with trade with China. Later in the week (Sunday), French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to Germany, where Ukraine, China, and the EU’s economic outlook will be paramount discussion issues.
On the global economic front, we will watch the European Central Bank’s Central Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal. Central bank chiefs from around the world – including Fed Chair Jay Powell – will be speaking and discussing various economic and financial issues.
Markets will be watching several key economic reports this week, particularly the US and Eurozone CPI releases, China’s PMIs, and inflation data from Canada, France, and Italy.
Finally, we will be looking at the Federal Reserve Board’s Stress Test results, which are being released on Wednesday, to get a fuller sense of the strength of the major US banks.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, June 25, 2023
Global
· Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Congress is in recess this week and next week for the 4th of July holiday.
· Guatemala holds central elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives panel remarks before the closed Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture organized by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will visit Beijing, China, through June 28.
· The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan will make a port call to Da Nang, Vietnam, through June 30.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Greece holds parliamentary run-off elections. If no clear winners emerge, a 3rd run-off will be held in August.
· The Nordic-Canada Prime Ministers meeting is held in Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland. The topics for discussion will include security issues around the Arctic and European defense.
· Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating the day when the country declared independence from Yugoslavia.
· Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking the day in 1991 when the country declared its independence from Yugoslavia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Mozambique Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Monday, June 26, 2023
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The United States and Japan will hold an Extended Deterrence Dialogue in the United States through June 27.
· Argentine President Alberto Fernandez visits Brasília, Brazil, for meetings with Brazilian President Lula.
· Toronto holds mayoral elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)
· Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), Wholesale Sales (May)
· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June), Current Account (May), FDI (May), BCB Focus Market Readout
· Mexico Economic Activity (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and a delegation of business executives will visit China through June 30. New Zealand relies on China for approximately 25 percent of its exports.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions Released, Coincident Index (April), Leading Economic Index (April)
· Singapore Industrial Production (May)
· Taiwan Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May), M2 Money Supply (May)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May
· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will travel to Lithuania to prepare for the NATO Summit on July 11-12. He will also attend Exercise Griffin Storm 2023.
· EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to exchange of views on the relations between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean ahead of the EU-CELAC summit planned for 17-18 July 2023.
· EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 27.
· The EU-Tajikistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank hosts their Forum on Central Banking in Sintra Portugal. ECB President Christine Lagarde will give opening remarks.
· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a roundtable discussion on "Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) sustainability in the financial sector" at Point Zero Forum organized by Banca d'Italia.
· Germany Ifo Business Climate/Current Conditions/Expectations Reports (May)
· UK CBI Distributive Trades (June)
· Spain PPI (May)
· Poland Unemployment (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Composite Economic Index (May)
· Qatar Balance of Trade (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Madagascar celebrates Independence Day.
· Somalia celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Zimbabwe Inflation (June)
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and The Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Walt Nauta, a senior aide to former president Donald Trump, is to be arraigned on numerous charges, including conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record, and corruptly concealing a document or record in a Miami Court.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Durable Goods Orders (May), Redbook (June 24), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April), Home Prices (April), CB Consumer Confidence (June), New Home Sales (May), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Indexes (June), Dallas Fed Services Indexes (June), Building Permits (May)
· Canada Inflation (May), CPI (May)
· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes Released, IPCA CPI (June)
· Mexico Balance of Trade (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Premier Li Qiang will deliver a speech at the Summer Davos Forum in the city of Tianjin, an event looking to facilitate dialogue on the economy between the public and private sectors. More than 1,500 participants are expected to attend the three-day event hosted by the World Economic Forum.
· Today is Tajikistan’s National Day of Unity.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June), Unemployment (May)
· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
· Philippines Budget Balance (May)
· Malaysia PPI (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, will co-host a working dinner for NATO Heads of State at the Hague. The primary points for discussion will be preparations for the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11-12 and the situation in Ukraine.
· The EU General Affairs Council meets through June 30 in Luxembourg to discuss European electoral law.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta chairs session 1, "Monetary policy in the face of multiple supply shocks," at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. Later in the day, ECB Board Member Frank Elderson chairs session 2: "Assessing the costs of inflation." Followed by ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairing a panel “structural change in energy markets and implications for Inflation”
· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra gives a speech at UK Women in Economics Network on "tools for success” in London.
· Italy Business Confidence (June)
· Sweden Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), PPI (May),
· Hungary Current Account (Q1)
· Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Tourist Arrivals (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Djibouti celebrates Independence Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Wednesday, June 28, 2023
Global
· Today is the start of Eid al-Adha, the second and largest of the two main Islamic holidays.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2023 in Sintra, Portugal.
· US Bank Stress Tests, MBA Mortgage Market Index (June 23), Goods Trade Balance (May), Retail Inventories (May), Wholesale Inventories (May)
· Brazil Bank Lending (May), Net Payrolls (May)
· Uruguay Unemployment (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Industrial Profits (May)
· India M3 Money Supply (June 16)
· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)
· South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)
· Singapore Import & Export Prices (May), PPI (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas in Brussels. Later in eh day, she meets with the Prime Minister of Bulgaria Nikolai Denkov, and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo.
· Today is Ukraine Constitution Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs session 3: "Monetary policy normalization" and session 3: “the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy in the context of high inflation’ at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Later in the day, ECB Board Member Philip Lane chairs a panel, “Lessons from recent experiences in Macroeconomic forecasting.” This is followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a policy panel by Ms. Lagarde and then gives closing remarks for the Forum.
· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the introductory statement at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels
· Eurozone Loans to Households and Companies (May), M3 Money Supply (May)
· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (July)
· France Consumer Confidence (June)
· Italy PPI (May), Inflation Rate (June), CPI (June), Retail Sales (May), Industrial Sales (May)
· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June), Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin
· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)
· Spain Retail Sales (May)
· Norway Household Consumption (May), Retail Sales (May)
· Sweden Household Lending Growth (May)
· Russia GDP (May), Unemployment (May), Real Wages (April), Business Confidence (June), Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Business Confidence (June), Capacity Utilization (June)
· Qatar Total Credit Growth (May), M2 Money Supply (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a dialogue with Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos at the Banco de España Fourth Conference on Financial Stability in Madrid, Spain.
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the US economic outlook before the Irish Association of Investment Managers Annual Dinner in Dublin, Ireland.
· US GDP (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (June 24), PCE Prices (Q1), Real Consumer Spending (Q10, Pending Home Sales (May)
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June), Average Weekly Earnings (April)
· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June), PPI (May)
· Chile Unemployment (May)
· Argentina Consumer Confidence (June), Current Account (q1)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Finance ministers from South Korea and Japan will meet in Tokyo, Japan, for bilateral talks.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Retail Sales (May), Consumer Confidence (June)
· South Korea Business Confidence (June)
· Australia Retail Sales (May)
· Vietnam GDP (Q2), Balance of Trade (June), Industrial Production (June), Inflation (June), Tourist Arrivals (June), FDI (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Council meets in Brussels through June 30. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the state of the EU economy, and how to enhance the EU’s security and defense.
Economic Reports/Events –
· External member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England Silvana Tenreyro delivers a speech at the Society of Professional Economists, hosted at the Resolution Foundation in London.
· ECB Economic Bulletin, Economic Sentiment (June), Selling Price Expectations (June), Services Sentiment (June), Consumer Confidence (June), Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)
· Germany Inflation (June)
· UK BoE Consumer Credit (May), Mortgage Lending (May)
· Spain Inflation (June), Business confidence (June)
· Ireland Inflation (June)
· Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report, Retail Sales (May), Business Confidence (June), Consumer Confidence (June)
· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)
· Montenegro Balance of Trade (May), Tourist Arrivals (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Seychelles celebrates Independence Day.
· Today is Independence Day in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q2), PPI (May)
Friday, June 30, 2023
Global
· The UK takes over the chair of the UN Security Council.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Core PCE Price Index (May), Personal Income (May), Chicago PMI (June), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June), Michigan Inflation Expectations (June)
· Canada GDP (April), Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
· Mexico Unemployment (May)
· Argentina Economic Activity (April)
· Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Unemployment (May)
· Costa Rica GDP (Q1), Unemployment (Q1), Current Account (Q1)
· El Salvador GDP (q1), Current Account (Q1)
· Uruguay Current Account (Q1), Balance of Trade (May)
· Paraguay GDP (Q1), Current Account (Q3)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· China NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs (June), Current Account (Q1)
· Japan Unemployment (May), CPI (June), Industrial Production (May), Housing Starts (May), Construction Orders (May)
· India Current Account (Q1), External Debt (Q1), Infrastructure Output (May), FX Reserves (June 23), Deposit Growth (June 16)
· South Korea Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)
· Thailand Industrial Production (May), Current Account (May), Private Consumption (May), Retail Sales (April)
· Philippines PPI (May), Business Confidence (Q2), Consumer Confidence (Q2)
· Australia Housing Credit (May), Private Sector Credit (May), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (June)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)
· Sri Lanka Inflation (June), Current Account (Q1)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the deadline for Wagner Group mercenaries to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone Unemployment (May), Inflation (June), CPI (June)
· Germany Retail Sales (May), Import Prices (May), Unemployment (June)
· France Inflation (June), Household Consumption (May), PPI (May)
· Italy Unemployment (May)
· Spain Current Account (April)
· UK GDP (Q1), Current Account (Q1), Business Investment (Q1), Car Production (May), Nationwide Housing Prices (June)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (May), KOF Leading Indicators (June)
· Poland Inflation (June)
· Norway Unemployment (June)
· Romania Unemployment (May)
· Hungary PPI (May), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Bulgaria PPI (May)
· Slovakia Inflation (June)
· Serbia Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)
· Ukraine Current Account (May)
· Russia Consumer Confidence (Q2)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (May), M3 Money Supply (May)
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Private Sector Credit (May), M3 Money Supply (May), Balance of Trade (May)
· Nigeria FX Reserves (June)
· Namibia GDP (Q1)
· Kenya GDP (Q1)
Saturday, July 1, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Canada Day, celebrating the nation’s unity and independence.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Peru Inflation (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In China, a new anti-espionage law goes into effect with the aim of strengthening national security. The revised law will expand the scope of coverage to "all documents, data, materials, and articles" and allow law enforcers to inspect the baggage, electronic devices, and facilities of anyone, including foreigners suspected of spying.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The 110th Tour de France begins.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Burundi celebrates Independence Day.
· It is Republic Day in Ghana.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Sunday, July 2, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to Germany.
· Spain takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union. They hold the chair until December 31, 2023.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
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