The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

January 21 - 28, 2024

Greetings from a frigid, snowy Washington, DC!  Central bank interest rate decisions will dominate the news in the coming week as the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada all meet this coming week (with the Federal Reserve meeting the following week on January 30-31).   

For now, geopolitical events this week are at a minimum, with perhaps the most significant global event being India's 75th Republic Day, celebrating the nation's constitution and independence. Foreign leaders, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, will arrive to help celebrate and meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Macron and Modi meeting is particularly important for Macron, as he is seeking to sign sizeable defense and energy agreements with India.

All eyes will be on New Hampshire in the US as the state holds the Republican Presidential Primary. While it is only the first primary after last week's Iowa caucus, it might be the last Republican primary for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Hailey. With the surprise withdrawal from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign (and his endorsement of former President Donald Trump), Haley faces a do-or-die moment in the race. 

Looking at Europe, we will be watching this week as the European Commission debate and likely approve the European Economic Security Package (EESP).  Notably, the package will likely include new trade and investment restrictions aimed at China while seeking to bolster the economic national security of the EU. The EESP is closely watched in the US Congress as similar restrictive legislation is being considered this year.

Also in Europe this week, NATO begins its biggest training exercise, Steadfast Defender 2024, since the end of the Cold War.   More than 90,000 NATO member soldiers will participate in the event that lasts until late May.

Back to the global economic outlook this week: Beyond the big central bank meetings, markets will watch several US data releases, particularly Q4 GDP figures and the PCE print.  Germany’s always influential Ifo Survey comes out Thursday along with key consumer confidence gauges in the UK, France, and Germany.   

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, January 22, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US CB Leading Index (December)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Costa Rica Balance of Trade (December)

  • Colombia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Rate 5Y, M2 Money Supply (December)

  • Taiwan Export Orders (December), Unemployment Rate (December)

  • Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (December), Inflation (December)

  • Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (November)

  • Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

  • Lebanon Inflation (December)

  • Qatar GDP (Q3), M2 Money Supply (December), Total Credit Growth (December)

  • Kuwait Inflation (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary is held today, with the town of Dixville Notch being the first town to report results.

  • The 96th Academy Award nominations are announced.  The award ceremony will be held on March 10, which gives us all enough time to see all those movies they are going to nominate that none of us have ever heard of before.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Redbook (January 20), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January), Richmond Fed Services Index (January), API Crude Oil Stock Change (January 19)

  • Canada New Housing Price Index (December)

  • Argentina Economic Activity (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook Report

  • South Korea PPI (December)

  • Taiwan Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (December)

  • Singapore Inflation (December), CPI (December), Inflation (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (January)

  • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (December)

  • Hungary Gross Wage (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Joseph Boakai will be sworn in as President of Liberia.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November) 

 

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (January), MBA Mortgage Market Index (January 19), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (January 19)

  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report

  • Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December)

  • Mexico Economic Activity (November), Mid-month Inflation (January)

  • Argentina Unemployment (December), Retail Sales (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • India M2 Money Supply (January 8)

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Taiwan fM2 Money Supply (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (January), Westpac Leading Index (December)

  • Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), New Car Sales (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia invaded Ukraine 700 days ago.

  • There will be an informal meeting through January 26 of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers in Brussels. 

  • Romania celebrates Unification Day, marking the day in 1859 when Moldavia and Wallachia came together to form the Union of the Romanian Principalities.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • France HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (January), CBI Business Optimism (November)

  • Ireland Residential Property Prices (November)

  • Poland Unemployment Rate (December)

  • Russia PPI (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan Industrial Production (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is UNESCO World Day for African and Afrodescendant Culture.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Inflation (December)  

 

Thursday, January 25, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Haiti. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US GDP (Q4), Durable Goods Orders (December), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December), Durable Goods Orders (December), Goods Trade Balance (December), Initial Jobless Claims (January 20), Retail Inventories (December), Wholesale Inventories (December), Real Consumer Spending (Q4), New Home Sales (December) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January 19), Kansas Fed composite Index (January), Kansas Manufacturing Index (January), Building Permits (December)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January), Average Weekly Earnings (November), Manufacturing Sales (December)

  • Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January), Current Account (December), FDI (December)

  • Paraguay PPI (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Business Confidence (January), GDP (Q4)

  • Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • European Central Bank  (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde will give remarks on the occasion of International Holocaust Remembrance Day in Frankfurt, Germany

  • Bank of England Director for Banking, Payments, and Innovation Victoria Cleland speaks at the City & Financial Global Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit in London.

  • Germany Ifo Business Climate (January), Ifo Current Conditions (January)

  • France Business Confidence (January), Business Climate Indicator (January), Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)

  • UK Car Production (December), CBI Distributive Trades (January)

  • Spain PPI (December)

  • Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Business Confidence (January), Capacity Utilization (January), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (January 19)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa PPI (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Friday, January 26, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US PCE Price Index (December), Personal Income (December), Pending Home Sales (December), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January 26)

  • Canada Wholesale Sales (December), Budget Balance (November)

  • Brazil Bank Lending (December), IPCA mid-month CPI (January)

  • Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

  • El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Diet (parliament) convenes.  They are expected to focus on a growing political fundraising scandal that has engulfed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the Liberal Democratic Party.

  • Today is the 75th Republic Day in India, celebrating the day the country’s constitution was formed.  French President Emmanuel Macron visits India and meets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Financial markets in India are closed for the holiday.

  • Today is Australia Day, celebrating the country’s settlement in 1788.

  • Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong will learn his fate in a Seoul, South Korean court over charges of accounting fraud and stock manipulation. He faces five years in prison if convicted by the Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, CPI (January), Coincident Index (November), Leading Economic Index (November)

  • India Bank Lending (January 12), Bank Loan Growth (January 12), FX Reserves (January 19)

  • Singapore URA Property Index (Q4), Industrial Production (December)

  • Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Loans to Companies (December), Loans to Households (December), M3 Money Supply (December)

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (February)

  • France Consumer Confidence (January)

  • UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Spain Unemployment (Q4)

  • Hungary Unemployment (December)

  • Greece Total Credit (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Saturday, January 27, 2024

Global

  • Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan PPI (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zimbabwe Inflation (January)

  

Sunday, January 28, 2024

 Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

     

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Francis Kelly
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