The Global Week Ahead

February 19 - 26, 2023

This Friday marks the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. To mark this tragedy, President Biden will visit Poland for two days as a sign of support for Ukraine and NATO. Additionally, the UN General Assembly will meet to discuss the war while the UN Security Council will attempt to move a motion condemning Russia’s action (which Russia will likely veto). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may travel to New York to address the assembled delegates. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin will address the nation on Tuesday, two days before Russia celebrates Defense of the Fatherland Day.

On the economic front, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Chiefs will meet in Bengaluru, India. Closer to home, the US will report GDP figures on Tuesday while the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last interest rate meeting. Finally, there are a number of central banks considering interest rate hikes this week, including Turkey, Israel, Argentina, and South Korea.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, February 19, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to hold convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, February 20,  2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a non-binding resolution to demand Israel end its settlement expansion in the West Bank. The Israeli Cabinet decided last Sunday to approve a plan to legalize nine settlements in the West Bank and build 10,000 housing units in existing settlements in the West Bank. The US is expected to veto the Security Council vote.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden travels to Poland for a two-day visit and meetings with Polish President Andrzej Duda. 

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken makes his first official visit to Greece.

·       The US observes Presidents Day, a federal holiday. Congress is out of session all week.

·       Canada observes Family Day, a holiday in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Ontario.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India and Australia begin negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement. This is the next step for the two nations who reached an interim trade deal in December 2022.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate (1Y), Loan Prime Rate (5Y)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (January), Current Account (Q4)

·       Philippines PPI (January), Corporate Sector (January),  Employment Growth (January), Industrial Production (January)

·       Indonesia Current Account (Q4)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. It is expected that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will speak to the Council. They will also discuss the Afghanistan situation with the United Nations's Deputy Secretary-General and Chair of the United Nations Sustainable Development Group, Amina Mohammed, who will join via videoconference. They will also discuss the situation in Iran and the situation in Moldova.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority Sam Woods speaks at the Association of British Insurers Annual Dinner in London.

·        In the UK, ambulance workers and Drax power station staff are out on strike. The British Medical Association is expected to announce results of junior doctor strike action ballot.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Construction Output (December), Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Russia Monetary Policy Report

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s Knesset will hold a first reading of a controversial judicial reform bill. The legislation will allow would grant Knesset lawmakers control over judicial appointments, eliminate judicial review of legislation, and allow parliament to vote down Supreme Court decisions. The country has seen numerous demonstrations over the issue, including one last Monday where more than 100,000 people marched in Jerusalem in opposition. US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a delegation of Democratic Senators are expected to visit Israel on Wednesday, where they will express their concerns over the legislative proposal.

·       The UAE hosts the Idex 2023 Conference in Abu Dhabi, one of the largest defense exhibitions in the world, with more than 130,000 visitors expected from 65 countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (February), Central Government Debt (January)

·       Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the Africa Business Forum 2023 will take place today, on the margins of the thirty-sixth ordinary session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union. The Forum will be jointly convened by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the African Export-Import Bank, with the support of the African Union Commission; Sustainable Energy for All will be a resource partner. 

·       Morocco marks the anniversary of the Arab Uprising. The protests led to constitutional changes.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 21, 2023: 

Global

·       the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). 

·       In Paris, the UNESCO Global Conference "Internet for Trust" will take place from 21-23 February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court will hear arguments over the issue of Section 230 – a legal provision that shields internet companies from liability for content provided by third-party users. The case is being brought by the families of more than 100 people killed in a series of attacks by Islamic State terrorists in Paris in November 2015.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February),  Existing Home Sales (January)

·       Canada CPI (January), Inflation Rate (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang hosts Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan in Beijing for bilateral talks.

·       TO BE CONFIRMED: Japan and China may hold security talks, the first such meetings in four years. Japanese and Chinese officials agreed to the meeting at the Munich Security Conference this past week. If they do move forward with the meetings this week, the Japan-China Consultations between Diplomatic Authorities reportedly will be held today, and the Japan-China Security Dialogue on February 22nd.

·       The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-China Joint Working Group on the Implementation of A Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea will hold its 38th meeting. This meeting goes through February 23rd.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/Services/Composite  PMIs (February)

·       Australia Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/Services/Composite  PMIs (February)

·       New Zealand PPI (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a National Address to the Federal Assembly. The last time he gave this address to the nation was in 2021. He skipped giving the address last year because he was busy overseeing the invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the Russian Parliament is expected to hold “an unscheduled” session to discuss what Putin said the night before. There will also be a huge, staged rally at Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium, where Putin is expected to appear.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the situation in the Ukraine, competitiveness, the single market and the EU economy, energy issues, and migration.

·       In the UK, university staff will be out on strike nationwide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February), ZEW Current Conditions Index ( February)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February)

·       UK S&P/CIPS S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs (February),  Public Sector Net Borrowing (January), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)

·       Poland Retail Sales (January)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (February), Manufacturing Production  (December)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Indicators (December),  Balance of Trade (December), Unemployment (Q4) 

Wednesday, February 22, 2023: 

Global

·       Ash Wednesday, commencing the six weeks of Lent before Easter Sunday, is observed by many Christians globally.

·       The United Nations General Assembly will hold Eleventh Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly (Resumed: 17th Plenary meeting) to discuss the war in Ukraine. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       is expected to deliver remarks.  

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia.     

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US First Lady Jill Biden begins a trip to Africa with visits to Namibia and Kenya.

·       The island nation of St. Lucia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Open Market Committee Minutes, Redbook (February 18th), MBA Mortgage Data (February 17th)

·       New York Fed President & CEO John Williams participates in a fireside chat on “Taming Inflation” at the Credibility of Government Policies Conference at Colombia University in New York.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (January)

·       Argentina Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Leading Indicators (January), Balance of Trade (January)

·       Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US and South Korea will conduct a joint nuclear tabletop exercise in Washington, DC.

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visits Indonesia for talks with Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi in Jakarta.

·       Sri Lanka holds local elections through February 24th.

·       South Korea announces its 2022 birth data. The government has been encouraging young couples to have children by offering the equivalent of $540 per month to a family with a child less than one-year-old. The government has announced that amount will be raised by another $100 next year. The program is in response to South Korea’s fertility rate dropping to 0.81 in 2021 from 0.84 in 2020. South Korea’s fertility rate is the lowest among 38 OECD members.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Tamura Naoki will give a speech to local leaders in Gunma, Japan.

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)

·       India Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, M3 Money Supply (February 10th)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP (Q4), Hong Kong Budget is presented.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (January), Construction Work (Q4), Wage Price Index (Q4)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan to visit Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting to be held in Finland.

·       Germany CPI (January), inflation Rate (January), Ifo Business Climate/Expectations (February),

·       France Business Confidence & Business Climate indicator (February)

·       Italy CPI (January(,  Inflation (January), Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Economic Index (February)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Russia PPI (January), Industrial Production (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia celebrates "Founding Day," a new national holiday to mark the country's secular history as part of wider social reforms. 

·       Lebanon is expected to see food prices marked in dollars instead of lira due to hyperinflation raging across the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (February), Capacity Utilization (February)

·       Egypt Unemployment (Q4)

·       Israel Exports/Imports/balance of Trade (January), Composite Economic Index (January)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria observes the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, marking the anniversary of protests in 2019 which led to ousting of then-President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget 2023 to be presented. But while Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is doing this, Eight South African labor groups affiliated with the Congress of South African Trade Unions will issue a strike notice over an ongoing wage dispute.

·       Namibia Budget 2023 Presented

·       Nigeria GDP (Q4)

·       Ghana PPI (January) 

Thursday, February 23, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the cooperation between the United Nations and the European Union. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a delegation of Democratic Senators will visit Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Schumer is expected to voice his concerns over the pending judicial overhaul plan.

·       Argentinian banking employees are expected to go on strike over pay. Banks will be closed.

·       Guyana celebrates Republic Day, marking the day the country became a Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daily will participate in a virtual fireside chat on the topic “A Federal Reserve President Gets Real: Lessons on Leadership and the Economy” hosted by Handshake.

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Boston and former Kansas City Fed President Ester George will speak on the Fed’s role in the banking industry at the Banking Outlook Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       US GDP (Q4), Initial Jobless Claims (February 18th), PCE Prices (Q4), Retail Consumer Spending (Q4,  Chicago Fed National Survey Activity Survey Index (January), Kansas Fed Composite Index (February)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Inflation Rate (February)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (February), Economic Activity (December)

·       Peru GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets through tomorrow. They are expected to deliberate on a work report as well as finalize election procedures for a new committee.

·       Brunei celebrates National Day, also known as “Hari Nasional,” marking the day Brunei seceded from the United Kingdom.

·       Japan celebrates the Emperor’s Birthday today.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Decision,  PPI (January)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

·       Singapore CPI (January), Inflation (January), Current Account (Q4)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index (Q4)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditures (Q4), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q4), Private Capital Expenditures (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       President von der Leyen will be in Palermo, Italy, to deliver a keynote speech at the Opening Ceremony of the Academic Year of the Università degli Studi di Palermo. She will then meet with President of the Republic of Italy, Sergio Mattarella.

·       Russia celebrates “Defender of the Fatherland Day.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, Bank of England’s Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Resolution Foundation entitled “The result of rising rates; Expectations, lags, and the result of rising rates.”

·       Eurozone Inflation (January), CPI (January)

·       UK CI Distributive Trades (February)

·       Norway Loan Growth (January)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (December)

·       Poland Employment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing/Lending (February)

·       Kuwait Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (January)

·       Zambia Trade Balance (January)

·       Botswana Interest Rate Decision

·       Gambia Interest Rate Decision

·       Zimbabwe's creditors will discuss clearing more than $6 billion in arrears of its foreign debt. 

Friday, February 24, 2023:

Global

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

·       The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Chiefs will meet in Bengaluru, India. This is in advance of the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in India on September 9-10. The themes of the meeting, which is broken into two sessions,  are “International Financial Architecture, Sustainable Finance and Infrastructure,” and “Financial Sector and Financial Inclusion.” 

·       the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the maintenance of peace and security in Ukraine. This will include a vote condemning Russia for invading Ukraine – which Russia and possibly China will veto. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       The G7 Leaders will hold a virtual meeting in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may take part, where the United States and others are expected to announce additional sanctions on Russia. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governors Philip N. Jefferson and Christopher Waller, along with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, will speak at the 2023 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, in New York.

·       US PCE Price Index (January),  Building Permits Index (January), Personal Income (January), New Home Sales (January), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January), Wholesale Prices (January), Budget Balance (December)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February), IPCA mid-month CPI (February), Current Account (January), FDI (January)

·       Mexico GDP (Q4), Economic Activity (December), Current Account (Q4)

·       Chile PPI (January)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s new Bank of Japan Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda speaks at his confirmation hearing before the Japanese Diet. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation (January)

·       India FX Reserves (February 17), Bank Loan Growth /Deposit Growth (February)

·       Taiwan GDP (Q4), Tourist Arrivals (January), M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (January)

·       Malaysia National Budget presented, Inflation figures (January), Leading Index (December), Coincident Index (December)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU is expected to adopt its 10th sanctions package against Russia, including restrictions on dual-use technologies.

·       Estonia celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1918 the Republic of Estonia was first formed. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Also joining the meet will be NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Tallinn, Estonia, to mark the anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GDP (Q4), GfK Consumer Confidence (March)

·       France GDP (Q4), Consumer Confidence (February),

·       Spain PPI (January)

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (February), Car Production (January)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

·       Hungary Unemployment (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, in India for the G20 Financial Ministers meeting,  will convene a roundtable with U.S. and Indian executives in the tech sector to discuss deepening U.S.-Indian economic ties as well as advancing shared goals like bolstering digital public infrastructure.

·       Suriname observes the Day of Liberation and Innovation, marking the day in 1980 the corrupt government of was overthrown by 15 Sergeants in Suriname’s military.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2023 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Finance and Central Bank Deputies meeting is held in Palm Springs, California.

·       The Philippines observes People Power Revolution Day, marking the day in 1986 public demonstrations took place for three days. The protests came as a result of the assassination of Senator Benigno Aquino and led to then-President Ferdinand Marcos was

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi through February 26th.

·       Georgia observes Soviet Occupation Day, commemorating when the Soviet Red Army invaded in 1921. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait celebrates National Day, commemorating the day Sheikh Abdullah Al-Salim Al-Sabah became ruler of Kuwait in 1950.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria holds presidential, Senate, and House of Representatives elections. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, with more than 220 million citizens. The presidential election is seen as too hard to predict at this point, with three candidates who are polling very closely.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 26, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party to hold party convention in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Manchester United plays Newcastle United in the Carabou Cup Final at Wembley Stadium, London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait observes Liberation Day, remembering the day the country was liberated by Iraqi occupation in 1991 as a result of Operation Desert Storm.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.