The Global Week Ahead

April 2 - 9, 2023

As much of the world prepares for the Easter and Passover holidays, several important geopolitical events are taking place this week. French President Emanual Macron and European Community President Ursula von der Leyden will visit Beijing for meetings with President Xi Jinping. This comes on the heels of von der Leyden’s tough Thursday speech calling out China for human rights violations and urging Europe to distance itself more aggressively from China.

But perhaps the most significant event this week will be the historic criminal arraignment of former President Donald Trump in New York – the first President of the United States to be arrested for a crime since former President Ulysses S. Grant was arrested for speeding in a horse-drawn carriage in 1872. Trump is facing 30 criminal counts.

Also this week, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and several other members of the House of Representatives are scheduled to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Los Angeles – an action Beijing has strongly condemned.

It is a short week in global financial markets due to Easter and Passover. Central banks India, Australia, and New Zealand will be looking to raise rates this week. And key reports on manufacturing in Japan and labor data in the US on Friday will be watched closely.

Finally, we would note Monday is the 50th anniversary of the first cell phone call being made – our lives have never been the same since.

Here is what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 2, 2023: 

Global

·       Much of the Christian world celebrates Palm Sunday.

·       Russia takes the chair of the UN Security Council

·       Much of the Christian world celebrates Palm Sunday.

·       Today is World Autism Awareness Day.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina celebrates Malvinas Day (Day of the Veterans), commemorating the loss of lives in the 1982 Falklands War.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report (NSTR).

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the government will officially launch the Children and Families Agency. The new organization will be tasked with helping the development of children (and encouragement for families to have children), including their health and security, as the country grapples with a fast-declining birthrate.

·       In Australia, Daylight Savings Time ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Paris will vote on whether or not to ban electric scooters.

·       Montenegro holds the 2nd round of the presidential elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections, its fifth parliamentary election in less than two years.

·       Finland holds parliamentary elections. The Social Democratic Party (SDP), led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin, is facing an extremely close race despite successfully leading Finland’s accession to NATO.

·       Andorra holds parliamentary elections.

·       Union Day of Belarus and Russia is celebrated (mostly in Belarus), commemorating the agreement signed between Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko on April 2, 1996.  The agreement was intended to enhance the integration of both countries economically and offer mutual support.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s Cabinet is expected to vote on a proposal to create a new national guard unit.  Under the proposal, Israeli National Security Advisor Itamar Ben-Gvir would oversee the leadership of the unit.  It is expected the Israeli Defense Forces, the Border Police, and the Shin Bet (internal security). 

·       Iran celebrates Islamic Republic Day, marking the day the Shah was overthrown and the current Islamic regime took power.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, April 3, 2023:

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting. Yesterday, in a surprise announcement, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members announced they intend to cut output by 1.16 million barrels a day.

·       The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will hold a roundtable to discuss the issue of sovereign debt.  This is in advance of the annual World Bank/IMF Spring meetings in Washington, DC, and comes out of growing concern over the growing debt crisis in a number of emerging markets.

·       Today is the 50th anniversary of Motorola engineer Martin Cooper making the first-ever cell phone call.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is out of session this week and next for Passover and Easter holidays.

·       NASA and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) name the four astronauts who will orbit the Moon on the Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight test of the Space Launch System and Orion Spacecraft ahead of a future Moon landing.

·       Venezuela and Curaçao are scheduled to reopen the border of the Venezuela-Curaçao sea and air and Venezuela-Bonaire sea borders.  The borders of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao were shut due to the smuggling of gold, copper, and other raw materials out of Venezuela.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on “The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” and participates in a moderated conversation presented by the University of Michigan Economics, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March), Construction Spending (February), ISM Manufacturing PMI/Manufacturing Employment/Manufacturing New Orders (March)

·       Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March), Balance of Trade (March), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March),  Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (March), Monetary Policy Minutes

·       Peru Inflation (March)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Japan Tankan Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing Indexes/Large All Industry Capex(Q1), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Index (March), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March), Home Loans (February), Building Permits (February), Retail Sales (February), Commodity Prices (March)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March), Inflation (March) Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q1), SIPMM Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March), Budget Balance (February)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Passport Office workers begin a five-week strike over pay. Additionally, British Museum workers and British Library workers will also go on strike over pay.

·       In the Hague, the trial of former Kosovo Leader Hashim Taçi and three other former Kosovo leaders for crimes against humanity begins. Taçi is accused of numerous crimes committed during and after the 1998-1999 Kosovo conflict.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a  keynote speech at the virtual conference "Crypto Markets: The Future of Regulation" organized by Droit & Croissance (Rules for Growth) institute.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March) , Budget Balance (February)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March), Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Switzerland Inflation (March), CPI (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Inflation (March), CPI (March), PPI (March), Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya is bracing for widespread protests led by political opposition groups.  They are angered by the rapidly rising cost of living and are calling for President William Ruto to resign.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (March), Total New Vehicles Sales (March)

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (March

Tuesday, April 4, 2023:

Global

·       the World Health Organization (WHO) will publish its first estimates of infertility prevalence in over a decade.  The report provides insight into global and regional infertility prevalence by analyzing all relevant studies from 1990 to 2021.

·       World Bank Group President David Malpass will give a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C., on how the Bank can further encourage inclusive growth.  Malpass is stepping down in June and is expected to be replaced by former VISA credit card executive Ajay Banga.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump is scheduled to be arraigned in New York Court for criminal charges brought By New York City District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

·       President Joe Biden will visit a clean energy tech company in Minnesota as part of a 20-state tour he and Vice President Kamala Harris are conducting to highlight his economic agenda and its success.

·       Chicago will hold a run-off election to select a new mayor.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives virtual introductory remarks at the “Exploring Careers in Economics – Spring 2023” Conference.  Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will also speak.

·       Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak to the Money Marketeers of New York University.

·       US Redbook (April 1), JOLTs Job Openings (February), Factory Orders (February), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (April), LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)

·       Canada Building Permits (February)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (February)

·       Colombia Exports (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates the Mahavir Jayanti religious holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank (ADB) releases its new economic and inflation forecasts for the Indo-Pacific region.

·       South Korea Inflation (March), CPI (March)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account Q4), Balance of Trade (February)

·       Pakistan Inflation (March), Wholesale Prices (March), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are scheduled to travel to China for meetings with President Xi Jinping.  The visit comes on the heels of a speech von der Leyen gave earlier this past Thursday calling on Europe to be “bolder” on China, arguing China had become “more repressive at home and more assertive abroad.”  Beijing strongly condemned the speech.

·       NATO Foreign Affairs Ministers are scheduled to meet through April 5th at NATO headquarters in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the Ukrainian War and how NATO can further support Ukraine’s efforts.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will attend.

·       The EU-US Energy Council Ministerial Meeting will be held in Brussels.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell will attend and speak at a joint press conference.  In advance of the meeting, Blinken has said the meeting will focus on how Russia is seeking to “weaponize energy” to achieve victory in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a speech on “Inflation, persistence & monetary policy” at the International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Eurozone ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, PPI (February)

·       Bank of England Financial Policy Summary & Record

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February)

·       Spain Unemployment (March)

·       Credit Suisse is scheduled to hold its annual meeting in Zurich.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (March), Business Confidence (March), FX Reserves (March)

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

·       Qatar GDP (Q4), Financial Centre PMI (March)

·       Jordan S&P Global PMI (March), S&P Growth PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP (Q4) 

Wednesday, April 5, 2023:

Global

·       The Jewish religious holiday of Passover begins, going through April 13th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and a contingent of other members of the House of Representatives are scheduled to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Los Angeles.  Tsai is “transiting” through the US on her way to Latin America.  China has condemned the meeting and “transit.”

·       Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will host the leaders of Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Honduras, Belize, Bolivia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines in a forum aimed at forging a plan to better battle inflation in the He.

·       Argentina’s flight controllers and airport employees are expected to go on strike over pay, threatening a chaotic Easter travel period.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February), S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March), ISM PMIs/Employment/Business Activity Reports (March), MBA Indexes (March 31st), ADP Employment Change (March)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March)

·       Mexico Inflation (March), Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Uruguay Inflation (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       Colombia PPI (March), Inflation (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The three-day Ching Ming Festival – also known as Tomb-Sweeping Day -- is celebrated in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.  All financial markets there are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/Composite PMIs (March)

·       India S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March), M3 Money Supply (March 17th)

·       South Korea FX Reserves (March)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe will give a speech to the National Press Club in Sydney.

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack, Ai Group Industry Index (March), Judo Bank Services/Composite/Services PMIs (March)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (March), Retail Sales (February)

·       Philippines Inflation (March), Unemployment (February), FX Reserves (March)

·       New Zealand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will travel to Moscow, Russia, for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Union State integration.

·       The European Commission to publish its proposed overhaul of the economic bloc’s pharmaceuticals legislation.

·       In the UK, 1,500 driving examiners and test center staff at the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency resume strikes over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the University of Cyprus.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March)

·       Germany Factory Orders (February), S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March)

·       UK S&P/CIPS UK Services and Composite PMIs (March)

·       France Industrial Production (February), S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March), Retail Sales (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (February), S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March), Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (March)

·       Uganda Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (March)

Thursday, April 6, 2023:

Global

·       WL Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (March)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard will give an outlook on the US economy and monetary policy at the Arkansas State Bank Department’s Day with the Commissioner event in Little Rock, Arkansas.

·       US Challenger Jobs Cuts (March), Initial Jobless Claims (April 1st)

·       Canada Unemployment (March), Ivey PMI (March)

·       Colombia Inflation (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (March)

·       India Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France is bracing for an 11th day of strikes and protests over President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform law.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Germany Industrial Production (February), S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (March), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (March)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (March), FX Reserves (March)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is scheduled to visit Turkey through April 7th for meetings with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.  They are expected to discuss trade, energy, and tourism.  But they are also expected to focus heavily on the Ukraine War, the situation in Syria, the South Caucasus, and Afghanistan.   It is also likely this is a pre-meeting for a likely visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Turkey on April 27th (which is yet to be confirmed).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The United Arab Emirates' Al Ansari Exchange will start trading on the Dubai Financial Market. 

·       Turkey FX Reserves

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uganda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Friday, April 7, 2023:

Global

·       The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FA) Food Price Index (March)

·       Good Friday is observed among Christians globally.  Most businesses, financial markets, and governments in Europe, Latin America, and the US  are closed or close early in advance of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launch of the Intelsat 40e communications satellite from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment (March), Consumer Credit Change (February), Used Car Prices (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (February), FX Reserves (March), Coincident Index (February), Leading Economic Index (February)

·       South Korea Current Account (February)

·       India Deposit Growth (March 24th), FX Reserves (March 31st), Bank Loan Growth (March 24th)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (March)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Unite union members who refuel naval ships employed by Serco at Devonport Dockyard in Plymouth begin their weekend strike.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February), Current Account (February), FX Exchanges (March)

·       Poland Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves (March)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (March)

·       Russia GDP (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt FX Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uganda Business Confidence (March), Balance of Trade (February)

Saturday, April 8, 2023:

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda ends his term of office and is officially succeeded by Kazuo Uedo.

·       China FX Reserves (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, April 9, 2023:

Global

·       Easter is observed by much of the Christian world globally.

·       Palm Sunday is observed today in the Orthodox church.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds local elections in 47 prefectures and several major cities.  The elections are considered a major indicator for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to call for early parliamentary elections following a slide in his poll numbers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo Constitution Day is observed.

·       The Church of England begins a 28-day period of prayer leading to the coronation of King Charles next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

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