The Global Week Ahead
June 4 - 11, 2023
Now that the White House and Congress have averted a debt default, the markets are turning their attention to geopolitical events. Ukraine appears to be on the cusp of launching its much-anticipated spring offensive. OPEC meets this week, where they will likely agree to further production cuts to help sagging oil prices – although there appears to be friction among various members on whether to cut production and, if so, by how much.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet with his Indian counterpart, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, in New Delhi, reflecting the growing security relationship between the US and India. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia for a series of high-level meetings, including participating in the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Ministerial meeting – all part of an effort to rebuild US relations with Saudi Arabia.
On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Germany for a dinner meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The two leaders will discuss the upcoming NATO Summit in July and how the EU can further assist Ukraine. They are also likely to discuss EU policy toward China. On Wednesday, President Biden will host British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the first official visit of the Prime Minister to the White House. They are expected to discuss Ukraine, Northern Ireland’s political situation, and bilateral trade issues - but not a trade deal.
On the US political front, two more Republicans will jump into the 2024 presidential campaign: Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence will announce this week.
On the economic radar screen this week, China will release inflation data on Wednesday. This week, the Central Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on interest rates. The US Federal Reserve will be quiet this week as they are officially in their “quiet period” before meeting to determine interest rate policy on June 14th.
Finally, the OECD meets this week in Paris and will release its global economic outlook. The World Bank will also be releasing its summer Economic Outlook this week.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, June 4, 2023
Global
· OPEC+ holds a ministers’ meeting in person in Vienna, Austria.
· The 79th Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit 2023 takes place in Istanbul, Turkey, through June 6th. This is the world’s largest gathering of airline leaders.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The State of Mexico holds elections for governor.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 34th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square clampdown and massacre.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Morocco trade unionists are expected to call for a national protest against the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Guinea-Bissau holds legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Monday, June 5, 2023
Global
· the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet through June 9. Top of their list of issues is the battle raging around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine. This is the largest nuclear power plant in all of Europe and has sustained significant damage on multiple occasions where power has been cut off from the facility. The Board will also discuss the Iran nuclear program. According to a confidential IAEA report this week, Iran has enriched their Uranium stockpiles by 20 percent since leaving the JCPOA (nuclear deal with the US, Germany, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia).
· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA,
· The UN launches the Secretary-General’s Policy Brief Series - Global Digital Compact, Beyond Gross Domestic Product, and International Financial Architecture. More details can be found here.
· The World Trade Organization Secretariat holds a review of EU trade policies.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden will be meeting with Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Washington. Frederiksen is seen as a leading candidate to replace NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is planning to step down in October after nine years in the role.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May), ISM Services PMI (May), Factory Orders (April), ISM Services Business Activity (May), ISM Services New Orders (May)
· Brazil S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (May), BCB Focus Market Readout
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)
· Colombia PPI (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi. This will be the third leg of Austin’s Indo-Pacific visit, having traveled to Japan, Singapore (for the Shangri-La Conference), and France.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (May)
· Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (May)
· India S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (May)
· Singapore Retail Sales (April)
· South Korea FX Reserves (May)
· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (May), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May), Company Gross Profits (Q1), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May), Business Inventories (Q1),
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)
· Taiwan FX Reserves (May)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May), Inflation (May), Tourist Arrivals (April)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK has its June Bank Holiday, a national holiday.
· The Financial Times host an event titled “Investing in Space” starting Monday in London. Speakers include Bob Smith, CEO of Blue Origin, and Josef Aschbacher, director-general at the European Space Agency.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels. She will update them on the state of economic affairs in the EU and globally. EU members of Parliament are expected to focus on inflation and the ECB’s policy responses in fighting it.
· Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), PPI (April)
· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), New Car Registrations (May)
· UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (May)
· Sweden Services PMI (May)
· Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), Consumer Confidence (May)
· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May)
· France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (May), New Car Registrations (May)
· Switzerland Inflation (May), CPI (May)
· Slovakia Real Wages (Q1)
· Norway House Price Index (May)
· Serbia PPI (May)
· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iran celebrates Khordad National Uprising Day, commemorating events in 1963 when protests then-Shaw Mohammad Reza Pahlavi began. The Islamic Republic of Iran considers this the starting point of the Islamic Revolution.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)
· UAE S&P Global PMI (May)
· Turkey Inflation (May), PPI (May), CPI (May)
· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (May)
· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Africa CEO Forum is held today and tomorrow in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Co-hosted by the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, more than 1,800 business leaders, investors, and policymakers are expected to attend.
· Equatorial Guinea celebrates President’s Day in honor of the current sitting president, Teodoro Obiang. Obiang has been president for more than 40 years and is the world’s longest-serving president (despite multiple coup attempts over the years).
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)
· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (May)
· Ghana S&P Global PMI (May)
Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Global
· The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) for May is released.
· The UN will hold elections for new non-permanent members of the Security Council.
· The World Bank publishes the summer edition of the Global Economic Prospects.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his UK and French counterparts in France during a D-Day commemoration. It is expected they collectively will discuss the situation in Ukraine, expanded mutual security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region, and climate change.
· Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is expected to announce his bid for the presidency in New Hampshire.
· The Bloomberg Invest conference takes place Tuesday through Thursday. Notable speakers on the agenda include Bank of America Corp. CEO Brian Moynihan, Nasdaq Inc. Chair and CEO Adena Friedman, and TIAA CEO Thasunda Brown Duckett, all speaking on Wednesday, and former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton, who speaks on Thursday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Redbook (June 3), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (June), LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)
· Canada Building Permits (April), Ivey PMI (May)
· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (May)
· Colombia Inflation (May), Exports (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· South Korea observes Memorial Day, a public holiday honoring the brave soldiers who lost their lives in the Korean War.
· The Consumer Goods Forum begins in Kyoto, Japan. CEOs from more than 200 companies in 40 countries will attend. The main topics for discussion are supply chain security and climate change.
· China will officially launch its first domestically built cruise ship. The Adora Magic City will set sail from Shanghai. It can accommodate more than 5,000 passengers and is a joint venture of U.S. cruise ship operator Carnival and China State Shipbuilding Corporation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Household Spending (April), Overtime (April)
· Philippines Inflation (May)
· Taiwan Inflation (May)
· Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Building Permits (April), Current Account (Q1), Private House Approvals (April)
· Thailand Inflation (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 79th anniversary of the Normandy Invasion. French President Emmanuel Macron will make an official visit before flying to Germany (see next item).
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will meet in Potsdam, Germany, where they will discuss the NATO Summit being held in July as well as the agenda of the European Council.
· The International Court of Justice will begin hearing a case brought by Ukraine charging Russia with being responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014.
· France continues to experience massive strikes and protests over the recently passed pension reform legislation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (May), Retail Sales (April)
· Germany Factory Orders (April), HCOB Construction PMI (May)
· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)
· France HCOB Construction PMI (May)
· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May), S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May)
· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)
· Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Romania PPI (April), Retail Sales (April)
· Hungary Retails Sales (April)
· Slovakia GDP (Q1)
· Spain Industrial Production (April)
· Russia Vehicle Sales (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Saudi Arabia through June 8th. He will also participate in the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Ministerial meeting to discuss mutual security, regional integration, and economic opportunities in the region. On June 8th, Secretary Blinken will co-host a ministerial meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan in Riyadh.
· Kuwait holds National Assembly elections. All 50 seats are up for election, and is the second snap election held in the last year.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt FX Reserves (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa GDP (Q1)
· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (May)
· Nigeria Balance of Trade (January/February/March)
Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Global
· The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will meet in Paris. The theme of the meeting is “Securing a Resilient Future: Shared values and global partnerships.” Of note, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai will meet with EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis on the sidelines in an effort to finalize a deal aimed at promoting trade in steel and aluminum produced with lower carbon emissions. Both sides have put a self-imposed deadline of October to reach an agreement. It will also release its global economic outlook.
· The 8th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency begins in Paris. The meeting brings together ministers, CEOs, and other senior leaders.
· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes committed by ISIL/Da'esh (UNITAD).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden will host UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the White House. The two leaders are expected to discuss Ukraine, post-Brexit bilateral tensions, Northern Ireland’s political issues, climate change, and bilateral trade issues.
· Former Vice President Mike Pence will formally announce his bid for the presidency. He will do it via a CNN Town Hall.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), MBA Mortgage Indexes (June 2), Core Credit Change (April), Used Car Prices (May)
· Central Bank Canada Interest Rate Decision, Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Labor Productivity (Q1)
· Brazil Inflation (May), Car Production (May), New Car Registrations (May)
· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
· Costa Rica Inflation (May)
· Colombia Inflation (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
· Japan FX Reserves (May), Coincident Index (April), Leading Economic Index (April)
· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe gives a speech at the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit in Sydney, Australia.
· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the Australia Banking Association Annual Conference in Sydney, Australia.
· Australia GDP (Q1), Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (May)
· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
· Hong Kong FX Reserves (May)
· Singapore FX Reserves (May)
· Indonesia FX Reserves (May)
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets in Brussels with Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President-Designate of the upcoming COP28 Summit. He is also the UAE’s Special envoy for Energy and Climate Change.
· Malta celebrates Sette Guiugno Day, one of the country’s five national holidays. It commemorates an uprising on June 7, 1919, against the British government. British troops opened fire on the crowd, killing four and wounding 50.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a speech at a conference on financial integration jointly organized by the European Commission and the ECB in Brussels
· ECB Board Member will moderate of panel entitled 'Completing the Banking Union: progress, perspective and priorities' at a conference on financial integration jointly organized by the European Commission and the ECB in Brussels. ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo will participate in the panel.
· Germany Industrial Production (April)
· UK Halifax House Price Index (May), BBA Mortgage Rate (May)
· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Current Account (April), FX Reserves (May)
· Italy Retail Sales (April)
· Ireland Industrial Production (April)
· Hungary Industrial Production (April), Monetary Policy Minutes
· Poland FX Reserves (May)
· Ukraine FX Reserves (May)
· Switzerland Unemployment (May), FX Reserves (May)
· Norway Industrial & Manufacturing Production Figures (April)
· Russia FX Reserves (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May), FX Reserves (May)
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa FX Reserves (May), Business Confidence (Q2)
Thursday, June 8, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Jobless Claims (June 3), Wholesale Inventories (April)
· Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry gives a speech at the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce.
· Chile Inflation (May)
· Mexico Inflation (May)
· Paraguay Inflation (May)
· Argentina Industrial Production (April)
· Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Lujiazui Forum begins in Shanghai, China. The event, named after the financial district in Shanghai, will see financial services executives globally in attendance and will be co-chaired by China’s new financial regulator, Li Yunze.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China FX Reserves (May)
· Japan GDP (Q1), Current Account (April), Bank Lending (May), Ecco Watchers Survey Outlook (May)
· Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio
· Philippines Industrial Production (April), FX Reserves
· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meets through June 9th in Luxembourg. They will discuss EU policy on asylum and migration, the overall state of the Schengen area, and enhanced strategies to combat violent extremism and terrorism.
· In the UK, workers at the Coca-Cola Europacific Partners – the largest soft drink plan in Europe – go on strike for 14 days over wages.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Today is the feast of Corpus Christi. Many financial markets in Europe (and the ECB) will be closed.
· Eurozone GDP (Q1), Employment Change (Q1)
· France Payrolls (Q1)
· Ireland Inflation (May)
· Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Romania GDP (Q1)
· Hungary Balance of Trade (April), Inflation (May)
· Bulgaria GDP (Q1)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1)
· Egypt Inflation (May)
· Israel Business Confidence (May), Budget Balance (May)
· Turkey FX Reserves (June 2)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Current Account (Q1), Manufacturing Production (April)
· Ghana Inflation (May)
· Tanzania Inflation (May)
Friday, June 9, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· US WASDE Report
· Canada Unemployment (May), Capacity Utilization (Q1)
· Mexico Industrial Production (April)
· El Salvador Inflation (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation (May), PPI (May)
· South Korea Current Account (April)
· India FX Reserves (June 2), Industrial Production (April), Manufacturing Production (April)
· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Unemployment (April)
· Malaysia Industrial Production (April), Unemployment (April)
· Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will participate in a high-level seminar on Capital Requirements Regulation/Capital Requirements Directive organized by the European Parliament Liaison Office in Madrid, Spain.
· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will participate in a roundtable discussion organized by Algebris Investments in Milan.
· Italy Industrial Production (April)
· Ireland CPI (May)
· Norway Inflation (May), CPI (May), PPI (May)
· Sweden GDP (April), New Orders (April), Construction Output (April), Household Consumption (April), Industrial Production (April)
· Romania Balance of Trade (April)`
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (April), Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April)
· Bulgaria Construction Output (April), Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)
· Serbia Industrial Production (April), Unemployment (Q1)
· Hungary Budget Balance (May)
· Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, Inflation (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Industrial Policy (April)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Saturday, June 10, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· China total Social Financing (May), Outstanding Loan Growth (May), New Yuan Loans (May), Vehicle Sales (May), M2 Money Supply (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Portugal Day, a national holiday. It commemorates the death of Luís de Camões, who is recognized as the country’s greatest national icon. He is most known for his poem, which narrates the story of Portuguese explorations in the 15th century and has since been accepted as a national poem in Portugal.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Sunday, June 11, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Montenegro holds parliamentary elections.
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Ministers will meet through June 13th in Brussels.
· Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)
· Israel Consumer Confidence (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
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