The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

October 1 - 8, 2023

This coming week, political eyes will be watching the unfolding drama in the U.S. Congress and three separate federal courts. First, the U.S. House of Representatives will see rebellious Republican members, led by Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL), offering a "motion to vacate the chair," triggering a likely vote on whether to force Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the Speakership.

The dramatic move comes on the heels of McCarthy's successfully gaining passage of a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the federal government open for another 45 days while the House and Senate work to get overdue appropriations bills done. 

The Republican House rebels are furious with McCarthy for cutting a deal with House Democrats to support passage of the C.R. (without provisions on border security and cuts to federal spending) in return for a separate up-or-down vote on Ukraine defense spending. At this point, it is anyone's guess how the motion to vacate vote will go.

Moving to the court cases, the civil trial brought by the State of New York against former President Trump begins on Monday. The case revolves around the New York Attorney General's allegations Trump illegally inflated the valuation of his properties to obtain loans for his business. On Tuesday, President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, is expected in federal court on gun charges. Also on Tuesday, former FTX Founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's criminal fraud case begins in New York.

Globally, we will be watching as E.U. heads of state gather in Spain to discuss the future of the E.U. and possible new members, including Ukraine. Moving to Asia, the U.S. and the Philippines will hold joint naval exercises off the southern coast of the Philippines.  The drills come during heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over control of the Scarborough Shoal. Last week, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. ordered the Philippine Coast Guard to destroy barriers the Chinese had set up to block off Philippine fishing vessels, further ramping up China-Philippine tensions. The naval exercise also comes after the U.S. and Philippines held the largest-ever joint military exercises on the island this past April.

While this happens, China will hold extensive naval training exercises with Saudi Arabia off the coast of China, the second time the two nations have held such drills. It shows the growing relationship between the two nations. China played a decisive role in advocating Saudi Arabia's invitation to join the BRICS group expansion last month. 

Also, this week, Russia begins a new round of conscription to help bolster its depleted military fighting in Ukraine.  More than 130,000 men between the age of 18 and 27 are expected to be called to service.  Previous conscription efforts saw large numbers of young Russian men flee the country to avoid the draft.

On the international economic radar screen, there are a number of central banks meeting this week to consider interest rate levels, including India, Australia, and New Zealand. Also this week, PMIs will be reported by a slew of countries, including China, Canada, the U.S., Japan, Germany, Italy, and the U.K.  Moving to the U.S., markets will be watching the ISM releases and jobs reports. Also, there will be several significant speeches by Federal Reserve Board members, which will likely reveal the Fed's economic outlook and regulatory agenda.

Finally, we remind readers that the annual fall World Bank/IMF meetings begin the following week (October 9-15) in Marrakech, Morocco. 

There is a lot else happening around the world this coming week. Below is what we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 1, 2023

 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds its first televised presidential debate. Five candidates will participate.

  • Ecuador's presidential candidates Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will debate before the presidential election on Oct. 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • China celebrates the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

  • Today is the Republic of Korea Alliance Day, marking the US-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953.

  • Today is Tuvalu Independence Day, celebrating the country’s independence from the UK in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (September)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Cyprus Independence Day, celebrating the day the country gained its independence from the UK in 1960.

  • France elects a new President of the Senate.

  • The United Kingdom's Conservative Party will hold its annual national conference through Oct. 4.

  • Russia's fall conscription season will begin. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Turkey's National Assembly will return to session, with its vote on Sweden's accession to NATO on the agenda.   Much may hinge on whether the U.S. agrees to self-16 fighter jets which Turkish President Erdogan has long wanted and has suggested may be the price for Sweden’s admission to NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nigeria celebrates its 63rd anniversary of independence from Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Monday, October 2, 2023 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Former President Donald Trump’s civil fraud case begins in New York.  The case centers on whether the former President fraudulently valued properties.  Along with the former President, his three eldest children are also accused of fraud.

  • The U.S. Supreme Court begins its autumn session. They will be considering a number of major cases, including one that could effectively rule the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is unconstitutional because it gets its funding via the Federal Reserve and not via Congressional appropriations. Another case will look at the precedent of federal judges deferring to administrative judges at federal administrative agencies to interpret vague statutes – the upshot being that if they change this precedent, federal regulatory agencies would likely be curtailed in their regulatory agendas.

  • In Guatemala, large peasant organizations will demonstrate and erect roadblocks throughout the country to protest alleged actions by the prosecutor's office targeting the electoral process. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participates in a roundtable with workers, small business owners, local employers, and community leaders to discuss efforts to redevelop and grow the local economy in York, Pennsylvania.  Also participating will be Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker.

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability at the Forecasters Club Luncheon at the Cornell Club, New York.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks on the economic outlook before the 50 Club of Cleveland Monthly Meeting.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates a discussion before the 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference: “Measuring and Adapting to Climate Risk,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), ISM Manufacturing PMI (September), Construction Spending (August)

  • Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Balance of Trade (September), BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Peru Inflation (September)

  • Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

  • Mexico Business Confidence (September), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Costa Rica Current Account (Q2)

  • Uruguay Balance of Trade (August), Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Opening ceremony for Philippines-U.S. Samasama naval exercise. The joint-Naval exercises go through October 13 and will be held off the coast of Southern Luzon.  They come at a time of heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over control of the Scarborough Shoal.  Last week, Philippine President Marcos ordered the Philippine Coast Guard to destroy barriers the Chinese had set up to block off Philippine fishing vessels.  The exercise also comes after the US and Philippines held the largest-ever joint military exercises on the island.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates the National Day of Golden Week.

  • India’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday.

  • Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions released, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3), Tankan Large All Industry Capex (Q3), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (September),

  • South Korea Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (September), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (September), Commodity Prices (September)

  • New Zealand Building Permits (August)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September), Inflation (September)

  • Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Empresarial El Diario Vasco in San Sebastián, Spain.

  • Bank of England Director of Insurance Supervision Shoib Khan gives a speech at the Association of Financial Mutuals Annual Conference in London.

  • Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, takes part in a fireside chat hosted by Redburn and Rothschild on macro and monetary policy in London.

  • Eurozone Unemployment (August)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • UK Nationwide Housing Prices (September), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIs (September)

  • Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Switzerland Retail Sales (August), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Romania Unemployment Rate (August)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Iraq Independence Day, celebrating the day it gained its independence from the UK in 1932.

  • Today is the 5th anniversary of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Guinea celebrates its 65th anniversary of independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Angola FX Reserves

  • Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

  

 

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Global

  • The Nobel Prize for Physics is announced.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In the House of Representatives, we expect Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to offer a motion to vacate the chair – effectively, a no-confidence vote – for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  Such a vote, if successful, would force McCarthy from the chair and likely throw the House and the Republican Caucus into chaos as they struggle to figure out who should be the new Speaker of the House.  Currently, there are reports circulating that House Majority Whip Tom Emmers (R-MN) is a leading candidate acceptable to the anti-McCarthy House Republicans.

  • The trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX begins in New York.

  • Peru's prosecutor's office will meet with U.S. authorities to discuss the extradition of former President Alejandro Toledo.

  • El Salvador's presidential election campaign period will begin ahead of the vote in February 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a speech before the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation, “Economic Outlook for 2024: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Labor Market, and Uncertainties,” before the Leadership Atlanta alumni roundtable, “Where Are We Going? Riding the Financial Rollercoaster: A Forward Look Beyond 2024”.

  • US Redbook (September 30), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (October), JOLTS Job Quits (August), LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (August)

  • Brazil Industrial Production (August)

  • Colombia Exports (August), Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

  • Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • South Korea’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates National Foundation Day.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision, Australia Building Permits (August), Home Loans (August)

  • New Zealand NNIER Business Confidence (Q3), NZIER Capacity Utilization (Q3), Global Daily Trade Price Index

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Pakistan Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Germany celebrates its reunification in 1990,  a national holiday. Markets are closed.

  • The Constitutional Court of Georgia will consider the impeachment suit against Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili brought by the ruling Georgian Dream party.

  • Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, and Poland will ban the entry of Russian-registered passenger cars.

Economic Reports/Events –


Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

  • Turkey Inflation (September), CPI (September), PPI (September)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (September), GDP (Q2)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nigeria’s two largest workers unions have called for indefinite strikes to protest against the cost of living crisis.  The crisis comes after the government canceled a petrol subsidy.

  • Mozambique is expected to sue shipbuilder Privinvest, its owner Iskandar Safa, and Credit Suisse in London on Tuesday over a decade-old $2 billion “tuna bond” scandal. However, UBS, which acquired Credit Suisse recently, is expected to attempt to settle the case before the case begins.

  • Ethiopia will host this year’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU) ​Regional Development Forum for Africa in Addis Ababa. This year’s theme is “Digital transformation for a sustainable and equitable digital future.”

  • The Windaba Conference 2023 begins in Cape Town, South Africa.  The conference is the premier wind energy in Africa and brings together energy ministers and leading energy companies together to discuss new projects and developments in the sector.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q2)

  • Nigeria PMIs (September)

  • Angola GDP (Q2)

 

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Global

  • OPEC+ holds a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee hearing to discuss the state of the oil markets and prices. They will also discuss potential new oil quotas recommendations.

  • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is expected to release its Global Stocktake related Report.

  • The Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden, appears in federal court on gun charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on the Role of Research, Data, and Analysis in Banking Reforms at the 2023 Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid gives brief welcome remarks before the 2023 Community Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  • US Global Composite & Services PMIs (September), MBA Mortgage Market Index (September 29), ADP Employment (September), ISM Services PMI (September)

  • Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (September)

  • Colombia PPI (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Jibun Bank & Composite PMIs (September)

  • South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

  • Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (September), Judo Bank Services PMI (September)

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Lebanon BLOM PMI (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Lesotho Independence Day, celebrating when it became a sovereign state from the UK in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ghana PMI (September)

  • Kenya PMIs (September)

  • Uganda PMIs (September)

  • Zambia PMIs (September)

  • South Africa PMIs (September)

  • Uganda Current Account (September), Stanbic Bank Uganda PMI (September) 

 

Thursday, October 5, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Cyber Risk in the Banking Sector at the Large and Foreign Banking Organizations Cyber Conference: Managing Cyber Risk from the C-Suite, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a conversation-style interview on the economy, monetary policy, and the Fed’s role in fostering economic growth before the hybrid Economic Club of New York luncheon.

  •  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester gives brief opening remarks before the Chicago Payments Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on the national outlook before the 2023 WilmingtonBiz Conference & Expo, Wilmington, North Carolina.

  • US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), Challenger Job Cuts (September)

  • Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), Ivey PMI (September)

  • Colombia Inflation (September)

  • Uruguay Inflation (September), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • El Salvador GDP (Q2)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (August)

  • Paraguay Inflation (September)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea CPI (September), Inflation (September), FX Reserves (September)

  • India Global Composite & Services PMIs (September)

  • Singapore Retail Sales (August)

  • Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

  • Taiwan Inflation (September)

  • Philippines Inflation (September)

  • Thailand Inflation (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The European Political Community meets in Granada, Spain.  This is the 3rd meeting of the Community, bringing together leaders from the EU to discuss the future of the EU as well as considering admittance of new members, including Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey FX Reserves (September 29)

  • Egypt FX Reserves (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Mozambique PMIs (September)

  • Reserve Bank of Uganda Interest Rate Decision

  • Rwanda PPI (August)

 

 

Friday, October 6, 2023

Global

  • The Nobel Peace Prize is announced.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The presidents of Panama, Laurentino Cortizo, and Costa Rica, Rodrigo Chaves Robles, will visit the Darien region in Panama to address the migration crisis. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Brookings Institution Event: Making American’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century, Washington, D.C.

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (September), Used Car Prices (September), Total Vehicle Sales (September)

  • Canada Unemployment (September)

  • Brazil Car Production (September)

  • Mexico Auto Production and Exports (September)

  • Chile Inflation (September)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (September)

  • Colombia Inflation (September)

  • El Salvador Inflation (September)

  •  

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Household Spending (August), Average Cash Earnings (August), Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

  • The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review, Retail Sales (August)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (September)

  • Singapore FX Reserves (September)

  • Philippines Unemployment (August), Industrial Production (August)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Heads of State hold informal meetings in Granada, Spain.  They are expected to discuss the EU’s Strategic Agenda, which includes enlarging the EU and possibly allowing Ukraine to join.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Factory Orders (August)

  • France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • UK Halifax House Price Index (September)

  • Hungary Industrial Production (August)

  • Switzerland Unemployment (September)

  • Italy Retail Sales (August)

  • Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Greece Balance of Trade (August)

  • Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Ukraine FX Reserves (September)

  • Russia Vehicle Sales (September), FX Reserves (September)

 

Middle East

  • Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Mauritius Inflation (September), FX Reserves (September)

  • Seychelles Inflation (September)

  • South Africa FX Reserves (September)

  • Uganda Balance of Trade (August), Business Confidence (September)

 

Saturday, October 7, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China FX Reserves (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

 

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Germany’s states of Bavaria and Hesse hold elections.

  • Luxembourg holds Parliamentary elections.

  • South Korea’s financial markets are closed as the nation celebrates National Foundation Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

  

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Francis Kelly
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