The Global Week Ahead
December 17 - 24, 2023
It is a week until Christmas, and the political and financial worlds are relatively quiet this week. But there are several important events we are keeping our eye on this coming week.
In the US, the Senate will return to work Monday, hoping that negotiations between the White House and Senate Republicans have hammered out a border security deal allowing a vote on aid packages to Ukraine and Israel. But even if an agreement is reached, the House of Representatives is gone until January 9 and will not make return until then.
In Hong Kong, newspaper publisher and democracy advocate Jimmy Liu is on trial for supposedly violating the Beijing-imposed and highly controversial National Security Law, which is seen as crushing free speech. The trial outcome will likely be seen as an inflection point by markets as to the very future of Hong Kong as a safe place to live and conduct business.
Meanwhile, in Taiwan, presidential candidates will hold their first public policy presentations on national television. This will be the first of three such presentations (the other two are scheduled for December 26 and December 28). Each candidate is given ten minutes to present their views on a specific topic. Observers will be watching closely for reactions from Beijing for what the candidates say about Taiwan-China relations.
In Europe, the EU begins formal negotiations with Ukraine for accession to the Union. European leaders voted this past Thursday to begin the talks despite the staunch opposition of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
On the global economic radar screen this week, it is a relatively quiet week ahead. The biggest event of the week is the Bank of Japan meeting to discuss interest rates. The other big event of the week is the 6th ECB Biennial Conference on Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance. Several central bankers will be speaking at the conference.
In the US, markets will be looking at the personal income figures and the PCE inflation figures released on Friday.
Finally, a quick scheduling note: We will publish an abbreviated Global Week Ahead next week.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week. Our best wishes for a joyful Christmas!
Sunday, December 17, 2023
Global
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
The ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit continues in Tokyo and goes through December 18. The Summit formally began yesterday.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Italy’s Brothers of Italy Party holds its annual “Atreju” gathering in Rome. The four-day gathering will bring together conservative leaders from across Italy and abroad: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Elon Musk, and other notable figures are scheduled to attend.
The United Russia Party (the ruling party in Russia, which holds 72% control of the Russian Duma), holds its 21st Party Congress in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin will address the meeting.
Serbia holds snap parliamentary elections. The Serbian Progressive Party is expected to retain its majority in the Parliament, but opposition parties may pull off a surprise win. President Aleksander Vucic is under pressure from the European Union (EU) and the US to normalize relations with Kosovo, which has refused to recognize its independence since it broke off from Serbia in 2008. Serbia is a candidate for membership to the EU, but much depends on Serbia settling relations with Kosovo.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel GDP (Q3)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Monday, December 18, 2023
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the morning, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The US Treasury is sending two senior officials to the EU to discuss the implementation of the second phase of the price cap on Russian oil. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes Elizabeth Rosenberg and Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand will meet with government and private sector officials Through December 20.
The US Senate is expected to return to Washington (as opposed to being out of session for the Christmas break) to vote on a possible compromise piece of legislation that will provide additional funding to Ukraine, aid to Israel, and new US border security measures.
Economic Reports/Events –
US NAHB Housing Market Index (December)
Canada New Housing Price Index (November)
Mexico Aggregate Demand (Q3), Private Spending (Q3)
Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
In Hong Kong, the trial of publisher Jimmy Lai begins. He is charged with violation of the controversial National Security Law for articles he published in his Apple Daily newspaper. A staunch defender of democracy in Hong Kong, he has been a sharp critic of the Chinese Communist Party. Markets are watching this trial closely as it is seen as a landmark case that will define the future of living and doing business in Hong Kong.
Economic Reports/Events –
Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Q4), Services & Composite NZ PSIs (November)
Singapore Non-Oil Exports (November), Balance of Trade (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
The EU is expected to announce an extension of the trade truce with the US over steel tariffs which were put in place by President Trump. The extension is expected to run through the US elections in November 2024.
Finland’s Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen travels to Washington, D.C. to sign the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as part of Finland’s joining NATO.
The European Union is expected to hold its first formal negotiations with Ukraine on EU membership. The EU decided this past Thursday to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban vows to continue to oppose Ukrainian membership. However, when EU leaders met this past Thursday to vote on commencing talks with Ukraine, Orban shocked observers by leaving the room so he did not have to vote either way.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Heads of Government Summit takes place in Moscow. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will serve as host. The CIS is comprised of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan travels to Hungary to meet with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and participate in the Hungarian-Turkish Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Budapest.
EU President von der Leyen travels to Kenya to sign the EU-Kenya Economic Partnership Agreement and holds bilateral meetings with Kenyan President William Ruto. She then travels to Rwanda to meet with President Paul Kagame and attends the launch of BioNTech Africa.
The European Environmental Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss reaching an agreement (‘general approach’) on a proposal for a regulation on packaging and packaging waste that will serve as the negotiating mandate to start talks with the European Parliament.
German farmers are expected to crowd into Berlin to protest against the newly approved federal budget which includes abolition of tax benefits for agricultural diesel.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser will travel to Georgia to conclude a new migration agreement to simplify deportations to the Eastern European country.
Economic Reports/Events –
The European Central Bank holds the 6th ECB Biennial Conference on Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance through December 19. ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give the keynote lecture. Later, ECB Board Member Philip Lane chairs a panel entitled “New policy challenges and reform needs for the EMU.”
Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent gives as speech at the London School of Business.
Germany Ifo Business Climate (December), IFO Current Conditions (December)
Spain Balance of Trade (October)
Poland Inflation (November)
Belarus GDP (November), Industrial Production (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
The results of the Egyptian presidential election are formally announced. President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is all but assured of being re-elected.
Today is the 13th anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring. They are seen as beginning in Tunisia in 2010 when a street merchant, Mohamed Bouazizi, self-immolated in protest over the confiscation of his wares and subsequent harassment by corrupt municipal officials. Bouazizi was subsequently awarded posthumously the Sakharov Price for his contributions to “historic changes in the Arab world.”
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel Unemployment (November)
Jordan PPI (October), Unemployment (Q3)
Qatar Inflation (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Today is Republic Day in Niger, a national holiday commemorating the creation of the Republic and independence from France in 1960.
Economic Reports/Events –
Angola FX Reserves (November)
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Development (FAO) is expected to release its report on the State of Food Systems Worldwide.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
In Ecuador, A court holds a hearing for the suspect in the assassination case of former Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio.
Today is the 25th anniversary of the House of Representatives of President Bill Clinton for his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky.
Economic Reports/Events –
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the U.S. economy, outlook for business, and the Federal Reserve's role before a Harvard Business School Club of Atlanta alumni luncheon.
US Building Permits (November), Housing Starts (November), Redbook (December 16)
Canada Inflation (November), CPI (November), Raw Materials (November)
Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Colombia ISE Economic Activity (October), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), ANZ Business Confidence (December)
Hong Kong Unemployment (November)
Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will visit Berlin for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Fico is seen as a nationalist-populist who allies himself with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and leans toward supporting Russia in opposing support for Ukraine.
The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Brussels. They will seek political agreement on proposals to extend the period of application of three emergency Council regulations, adopted in December 2022, under Article 122 TFEU. The emergency measures were adopted last year following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, in order to enhance solidarity between member states, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and protect EU’s citizens from excessively high energy prices. The emergency regulations need to be extended because of the persisting risks for the EU’s security of gas supply and in order to prevent market volatility and excessively high gas prices.
Economic Reports/Events –
ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives the introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2023 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates.
Eurozone Inflation (November), CPI (November)
Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)
Slovakia Inflation (November)
Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)
Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Deposit Interest Rate (December), Inflation Report
Bulgaria Current Account (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travels to Bahrain to meet with Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, then he travels to Qatar to meet with Emir Sheikh Tamin, and then travels on to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the Gaza War. The U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown will accompany him.
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US CB Consumer Confidence (December), Existing Home Sales (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 15), Current Account (Q3)
Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations
Mexico Retail Sales (October)
Colombia Imports (October), Balance of Trade (October)
Argentina Balance of Trade (November), Leading Indicator (November)
Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Taiwanese presidential candidates will hold their first public policy presentations on national television. This will be the first of three such presentations (the other two are scheduled for December 26 and December 28). Each candidate is given ten minutes to present their views on a specific topic. While these are not debates, each candidate can respond or comment on what other candidates say in their ten-minute presentation. Observers will be watching closely for reactions from Beijing for what the candidates say about Taiwan-China relations.
After 74 years on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Toshiba will be delisted. The massive conglomerate is in the midst of being restructured under the leadership of a private equity firm that wants to re-list the company in five years.
Economic Reports/Events –
China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y
Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)
Taiwan Export Orders (November)
Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)
New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (December), Global Dairy Trade Price Index
Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)
Thailand New Car Sales (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Today is the 60th anniversary of the opening of the Berlin Wall in West Berlin. West Germans were allowed one-day visits to see relatives in the East for the holidays.
There will be an informal video conference of EU Economy and Finance Ministers. They are expected to discuss the EU economic governance framework.
In the UK, junior doctors in England begin another three days of strike action in their ongoing dispute over pay and conditions in the National Health Service (NHS).
Economic Reports/Events –
ECB Board Member Philip Lane gives a speech followed by Q&A at the seminar "The euro area outlook" organized by ESRI - The Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin, Ireland. Later, he participate in a policy panel at the Economics Winter Workshop organized by the Central Bank of Ireland.
Eurozone Current Account (October), New Car Registrations (November), Construction Output (October), Consumer Confidence (December)
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (January), PPI (November)
UK Inflation (November), PPI (November), Retail Price Index (November)
Switzerland Current Account (Q3)
Spain Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November), Industrial Production (November), Employment Growth (November), PPI (November)
Hungary Unemployment (November),
Italy Current Account (October)
Serbia Current Account (October)
North Macedonia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Russia Consumer Confidence (Q4), PPI (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Iraq is scheduled to hold local and regional elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Consumer Confidence (December), Central Government Debt (November)
Israel Inflation (December)
Egypt Current Account (Q3)
Oman Inflation (November)
Qatar M2 Money Supply (November), Total Credit Growth (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Congo holds presidential and parliamentary elections. This is a particularly important election for markets as Congo holds 70 percent of the world’s reserves of coltan, a mineral used to make mobile phones. The country also produces 30 percent of the world’s diamonds and large quantities of cobalt and copper.
The International Monetary Fund’s executive board is scheduled to meet for the second review of Zambia’s extended credit facility program.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing Significant to Report.
Thursday, December 21, 2023
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). Later, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US GDP (Q3), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December), Core PCE Prices (Q3), Corporate Profits (Q3), PCE Prices (Q3), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December), Philly Fed Employment (December), Philly Fed New Orders (December), Retail Consumer Spending (Q3), CB Leading Index (November), Kansas Fed Composite Index (December), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)
Canada Retail Sales (October), Average Weekly Earnings (October)
Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (November)
Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (December)
Paraguay PPI (November)
El Salvador GDP (Q3)
Argentina Economic Activity (October), Retail Sales (October), Unemployment (Q3)
Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
South Korea PPI (November)
New Zealand Credit Card Spending (November)
Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (November)
Hong Kong Current Account (Q3), Inflation (November)
Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melonie holds an end-of-year news conference.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban holds an end-of-year news conference where he may reveal his plans on how to deal with his ongoing dispute with the EU over supporting Ukraine. Orban strongly opposes Ukraine’s ascension to the EU. However, when EU leaders met this past Thursday to vote on commencing talks with Ukraine, Orban shocked observers by leaving the room so he did not have to vote either way.
Economic Reports/Events –
France Business Confidence (December), Business Climate Indicator (December)
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (November), CBI Distributive Trades (December)
Italy PPI (November), Construction Output (October)
Hungary Gross Wage (October)
Greece Current Account (October)
Poland Retail Sales (November)
Slovakia PPI (November), Consumer Confidence (December), Unemployment (October)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing Rate (December), FX Reserves (December 15)
Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate
Lebanon Inflation (November)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Today is São Tomé Day, commemorating when the first Europeans arrived on the island in 1471 (it was uninhabited).
Economic Reports/Events –
Botswana GDP (Q3)
Ghana PPI (November)
Friday, December 22, 2023
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).
Today is the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year and the first day of winter in the northern hemisphere.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
US Core PCE Price Index (November), Durable Goods Orders (November), Personal Income (November), Personal Spending (November), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (December), New Home Sales (November), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (December), Michigan Current Conditions (December), Building Permits (November)
Canada GDP (October), Budget Balance (October)
Brazil Current Account (November), FDI (November), Current Account (November), FDI (December 15), FGV Consumer Confidence (December)
Mexico Balance of Trade (November), Economic Activity (October), Mid-month Inflation (December)
Chile PPI (November)
Colombia Business Confidence (November)
El Salvador Current Account (Q3)
Paraguay GDP (Q3)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Japan Inflation (November), Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Reserve Bank of India Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves (December 15)
Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)
Malaysia Inflation (October), Leading Index (October)
Taiwan Unemployment (November), M2 Money Supply (November)
Philippines Consumer Confidence (Q4)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Albania’s Parliament may meet to vote to approve the migrant asylum agreement structured between Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama. The plan – which would allow the Italian government to build two refugee centers in Northern Albania to process 36,000 migrants. Italy would fund the centers and the cost of processing. However, the deal was temporarily blocked by the Albanian Constitutional Court this past Thursday.
Economic Reports/Events –
France PPI (November), Consumer Confidence (December)
UK GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (November), Current Account (Q3), Business Investment (Q3)
Spain GDP (Q3)
Italy Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December), Industrial Sales (October)
Ireland Wholesale Prices (November),
Poland Unemployment (November)
Slovenia Business Confidence (December)
Hungary Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (Q3)
Kosovo Balance of Trade (November)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)
Kuwait Inflation (November)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
Zimbabwe celebrates Unity Day, a day celebrating the union of two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, ending a nationwide conflict between the two parties.
Economic Reports/Events –
Angola M3 Money Supply (November)
Saturday, December 23, 2023
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Today is Festivus, established on an episode of “Seinfeld” shown on this day in 1997 (hat tip to Frank Costanza (the late, great Jerry Stiller). Let the Airing of Grievances and the Feats of Strength commence!
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, December 24, 2023
Global
It is Christmas Eve. NORAD (the North American Aerospace Defense Command) will once again be tracking Santa Claus as he flies around the world.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Libya celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1951 when the country gained independence from France and Britain after the U.N. General Assembly voted for its independence.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
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