The Global Week Ahead

April 30 - May 7, 2023

This week, much of the world celebrates Labor Day on Monday – meaning many financial markets will be closed. But on Monday, President Joe Biden will host meetings with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to solidify further mutual defense agreements between the two nations in the face of growing tensions in the South China Sea with China.

In the Middle East, Israel’s Parliament is expected to again take up work this week on the highly controversial judicial reforms that have led to widespread demonstrations in the country.   In London on Saturday, King Charles III and the Queen Consort Camilla will be officially crowned King and Queen of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth Realms.

The real action this week will be among central banks. The US Federal Reserve meets and will announce whether to raise rates again or hold on Wednesday. The European Central Bank will also reveal a similar decision on Thursday. But several other central banks worldwide – Australia, Turkey, Malaysia, and Brazil, to name a few – will also be announcing interest rate decisions.

Those announcements will come amongst a slew of inflation data and PMIs in the US, Europe, and Asia – a lot of data for markets to take in this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds a vote on several constitutional amendments, including extending the presidential term from five to seven years, adding that Uzbekistan officially known as a “legal, social and secular state” (adding the word “secular”), adding a living minimum wage, guaranteeing the rights of the disabled, and a number of other amendments.

·       Vietnam will mark its 48th National Reunification Day.

·       French Polynesia holds the 2nd round of Assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) begins a 48-hour walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s Knesset (Parliament) is expected to resume working on the controversial judicial reform legislation that has sparked widespread national protests. 

·       US Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) travels to Israel. He will be leading a bipartisan delegation of 20 members of the House.  House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will also be visiting. McCarthy is expected to meet with Amir Ohana, the Speaker of the Knesset, and McCarthy will also address the Knesset. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Lending (March), M3 Money Supply (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mali will hold a constitutional referendum aimed at restoring democracy after a military takeover.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, May 1, 2023

 Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will convene an international meeting on Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar (1-2 May).  

·        Switzerland takes the chair of the UN Security Council from Russia for the month of May. The UN Security Council President for May, Ambassador H.E. Mrs. Pascale Christine Baeriswyl of Switzerland, who will brief reporters on the program of work for the month.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. will meet with President Biden at the White House. The goal of the meeting is to further cement the mutual commitment to the defense of the Philippines, particularly in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), ISM Manufacturing PMI (April), Construction Spending (April)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Marshall Islands Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       India S&YP Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (April), Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (April), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April), Commodity Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Labor Day is celebrated in most of Europe and is a public holiday.

·       French labor unions will hold nationwide demonstrations and strikes to protest the government's pensions reform during International Labor Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Tuesday, May 2, 2023 

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (April 29th), JOLTS Report (March), Factory Orders (March),  Total Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Mexico FX Reserves (March), Business Confidence (April), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Argentina Tax receipts (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank holds its 56th annual Board of Governors meeting in Incheon, South Korea. They will meet through Friday and are expected to discuss a wide range of issues, from food security and climate change to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation (April), CPI (April), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), Inflation (April), Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will meet Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti in Brussels, Belgium. They are seeking to find a diplomatic solution to ongoing tensions between the two states over elections.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden will deliver a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for a new plant of Infineon Technologies AG in Dresden, Germany. Later, she will meet with the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, in Prague.

·       Finland's center-right National Coalition Party, the far-right Finns Party and two junior partners will begin formal negotiations to form a new government following elections on April 2nd.

·       In the UK, strikes are expected by the National Education Union, members of the Unite union who work at the GSK pharmaceutical company, by the workers at the Passport Office, and also ambulance drivers across the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a discussion on "Banking supervision in a new economy": with Enria with Luc Laeven, ECB Director General Research, at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference in Frankfurt.

·       Eurozone Inflation (April), CPI (April),  HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April), M3 Money Supply (April), Loans to Households (March)

·       Germany Retail Sales (March) HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (April), S&P/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April), Inflation (April), CPI (April), PPI (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga will resume protests against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria PMI (April)

·       South Africa Manufacturing PMI (April), Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Angola Gross Reserves (April)

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

·       US MBA Mortgage Data (April 28), ADP Employment Change (April), S&P Global Manufacturing & Composite & Services PMIs (April), ISM Services Data (April)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates Constitution Memorial Day, a national holiday marking the new constitution brought into force after World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea FX Reserves (April)

·       India S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs (April)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (April) Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Indexes (April),, Retail Sales (April) RBA Chart Pack

·       Malaysia Central Bank Decision on Interest Rates

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Informal meeting of EU Employment and Social Affairs Ministers in Stockholm through May 4th.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is hosting the 14th Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, together with the presidency of this year’s COP28 climate conference in the United Arab Emirates.

·       German Finance Minister Christian Lindner will be speaking with Moritz Schularick, president-designate of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The topic will be “New business models for Germany” and will cover the future of globalization regarding commodity, sales, and financial markets; the division of tasks between the state and the private sector; and the role of political consulting. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in policy panel "Banking Supervision and the Role of Banks in a Future Banking System – Opportunities and Challenges Ahead" at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference 

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives the closing speech at the Annual ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference 

·       Eurozone Unemployment (March)

·       France Budget Balance (March)

·       Italy Unemployment (March)

·       Russia GDP (March), Unemployment (March), Business Confidence (April), Retail Sales (April), Real Wage Growth (February), Corporate Profits (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Auto Sales (April), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April), Inflation (April), PPI (April) CPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria will launch its first national census in 17 years. The current population now exceeds 200 million people and is on track to become the 3rd largest population in the world by 2050, according to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP (Q4)

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Global

·       The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (March), Nonfarm Productivity (Q1), Unit Labor Costs (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (April 29th)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Ivey PMI (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April), Unemployment (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) will meet in Brussels to discuss the reform of multilateral development banks as well as the global consequences of Russia’s war on Ukraine as well as the situation in Sudan.

·       The EU Health Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Stockholm to discuss crisis preparedness.

·       Local elections are to be held in more than 230 councils in the UK. The results will offer some insights into the strength of the Conservative Party.

·       Also in the UK, security officers at Heathrow Airport are expected to start a three-day strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Eurozone HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (April), PPI (March)

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       Spain Unemployment (April)

·       UK New Car Sales (April), S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (April), Mortgage Approvals & Lending (March), BoE Consumer Credit (March),

·       Italy S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMIs (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PMIs (April)

·       Kenya PMIs (April)

·       Zambia PMIs (April)

·       Ghana PMIs (April)

·       Mozambique PMIs (April)

·       Uganda PMIs (April)

Friday, May 5, 2023

Global

·       The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives the commencement address at Michigan State University in East Lansing, Michigan.

·       US Non-Farm Payrolls (April), Unemployment Figures (April), Consumer Credit Change (March), Used Car Sales (April)

·       Canada Unemployment (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet in Goa, India. Among those attending will be Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari – the first such high-level visit from a senior official from Islamabad in almost ten years.

·       Cambodia will host the Southeast Asian Games through May 17th in Phnom Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (April)

·       India FX Reserves (April 28th), Bank Loan Growth, Deposit Growth

·       Indonesia GDP (Q1)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy, Home Loans (March), Investment Lending for Homes (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events – Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at The State of the Union event organized by the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy. 

·       Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (April), Retail Sales (March)

·       Germany Factory Orders (March), HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       France Industrial Production (March), Non-farm Payrolls (Q1), HCOB Construction PMI (April), FX Reserves (April)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April), Retail Sales (March)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March), Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (April 28th)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the US, Berkshire Hathaway holds its annual shareholder’s meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, led by chair Warren Buffett.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla are formally crowned King and Queen of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth Realms in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mauritius FX Reserves (April) 

Sunday, May 7, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds its Constitutional Assembly election, choosing new members of the Constitutional Council to draft a new constitution. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand is expected to hold general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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