Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 2/16/25 Francis Kelly 2/16/25

The Global Week Ahead

Big Moves Toward Ukrainian Peace Talks, The EU Seeks to Head Off A Trade War with the US, Germany Holds What Could Be Historic Elections, The Israeli-Hezbollah Cease-Fire Is Set to Expire, and Markets Look to the Release FOMC Minutes

February 16 - 23, 2025

It will be a big week geopolitically - potentially historic in several ways. First, there is rapid movement toward establishing a framework to begin peace negotiations with Russia over its war on Ukraine. President Trump is dispatching US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to Saudi Arabia Monday to meet with Russian counterparts. The meeting aims to begin setting up the parameters for a possible meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks to start negotiating a Ukrainian peace deal.

As Rubio/Walz/Witkoff meet in Riyadh with the Russians, Trump’s Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, retired US Army General Keith Kellogg, will meet with EU President Ursula von der Leyen and then NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the peace effort.

As all this is taking place, French President Emmanual Macron will be convening an “emergency” meeting of EU leaders (leaders of Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Sapin, the Netherlands, and Denmark, as well as the NATO Secretary-General and the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission) to discuss what President Trump is doing and what they should be doing. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said this “is a once-in-a-generation moment for our national security.” All this being said, the two massive questions on the table are: What does Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky think about what Trump is saying and doing? And what exactly is President Trump’s vision for a peace deal, and does it include Ukraine giving up the land Russia has seized? All in all, it appears Zelensky and Ukrainian concerns are being somewhat left to the side. Also, coordination between the US and NATO partners lags behind Trump’s lightning-speed efforts.

Meanwhile, in Washington, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is flying over to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to urgently discuss how to avoid a looming US-EU trade war, which will be launched by President Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs. Sefcovic is not scheduled at this point to meet with President Trump directly, but rumors abound that this might actually happen. Markets need to watch this trip closely.

Also happening in Europe this week, German voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government. Christian Democrat Party Leader Fredrik Merz is on track to see his party win in the polls along with their Bavarian partners, the Christian Social Union (currently at 29.2%). The question is: Which other parties will they form a coalition with to avoid at all costs working with the ultra-far-right AfD Party, which is now currently in second place in the polls (21.3%)? Most Germans – indeed, most of Europe – are shocked and dismayed to see the AfD – which has repeatedly been shown to have a significant number of members who are Nazi sympathizers gain such an uptick in popularity. And that makes this election potentially historic as the Merz will likely have to go in with the Green Party and the left-of-center Social Democrats (SPD) led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Turning to the Middle East, Monday marks the grim milestone of the 500th day since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed more than 2,500 civilians and resulted in the taking of 251 hostages. While the Gaza cease-fire remains incredibly fragile, with sporadic attacks taking place, hope remains that the rest of the hostages will be released in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is technically set to expire. However, most observers expect it to be extended. Israel is asking for a ten-day extension (until February 28) before they pull back the last of their troops from Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is not likely to want to return to full-scale fighting, having been severely mauled by Israeli forces and having a large portion of its military leadership killed.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are keenly awaiting the release of the FMOC’s minutes on Wednesday to get a clearer sense of just how worried the Federal Reserve is about a resurgence of inflation and if there is any chance for further rate cuts this year.

In Asia, Japan releases Q4 GDP estimates, January CPI figures, and trade and machinery order data. Australia’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates on Tuesday.

In Europe, the UK releases labor figures on Tuesday, inflation data on Wednesday, and consumer confidence on Friday. Germany releases the ZEW Survey on Tuesday, and we will see the Eurozone consumer confidence report on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

· Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng leads a delegation of 220 representatives from 140 Canadian organizations on a trade mission to Australia as part of the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD, and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

· Today is the first anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s murder in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The 8th Indian Ocean Conference takes place in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security focused on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Walz, and President Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will travel to Saudi Arabia for meetings with Russian envoys to lay the groundwork for negotiations seeking to end the war in Ukraine.

· EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington for meetings with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett in an effort to ward off possible trade tariffs on the EU.

· Today is President’s Day in the US, a national holiday. Financial markets and banks are closed. The US House of Representatives is out of session this week in honor of President’s Day. The US Senate is in session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give brief remarks on the economy and bank regulation at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers, Phoenix, Arizona.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the UNSW Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, Australia.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series Conference with the University of the Bahamas.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Housing Starts (January)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (December)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ ISE Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a Tech Symposium with leading Chinese tech CEOs in Beijing in an effort to spur further growth in the sector.

· Malaysia will host the China Conference: Southeast Asia 2025 in Kuala Lumpur. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will speak.

· Sri Lanka's three-month-old government will present its first national budget as the country faces pressure from the International Monetary Fund to reach a primary fiscal surplus of 2.3 % of GDP and a tax-to-GDP ratio of 14% by next year. The IMF's conditions are part of a $3 billion bailout to help the country recover from its 2022 economic meltdown.

· Vietnam’s Parliament is scheduled to vote on a series of major civil service reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production Final (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (December)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

· Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

· China Vehicle Sales (January)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Sri Lanka PPI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European heads of state gather in Paris for an emergency meeting to discuss and potentially agree on a common proposal to resolve the Ukraine War. The meeting is being convened in response to President Trump’s fast-moving effort to meet with Russian President Putin to discuss Trump’s proposal to end the war.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with General Keith Kellogg (ret.), the US Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine and Russia in Brussels. Kellogg will also meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Brussels to discuss President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine.

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss the state of convergence in Bulgaria, the macroeconomic outlook for the Euro area, and the work program for the group up to July 2025. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will participate.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Serbia's Foreign Minister Marko Duric for meetings in Moscow.

· Romania’s far-right opposition parties are expected to submit a no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s government.

· There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Brussels through February 18.

· The US Army Europe and Africa will hold its biennial exercise in the Arctic called Arctic Forge 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

· Italy Balance of Trade (December)

· Spain Balance of Trade (December)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ European Commission Winter Forecasts/ ECOFIN Meeting

· Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Ireland Balance of Trade (December)

· Belarus Industrial Production (January)

· Turkey Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 500th day anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel and the taking of hostages.

· Today is February 17th, Revolution Day, a national holiday celebrating when the people of Libya threw off the rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s 40 years of rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

· Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Global

· The World Trade Organization begins a two-day council meeting in Geneva.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Practicing multilateralism, reforming and improving global governance. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Lula da Silva hosts Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Sao Paulo.

· Bermuda holds elections for its House of Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr will give a speech on Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in a moderated discussion before the 2025 Conference for Community Bankers hosted by the American Bankers Association.

· Canada Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Median (January)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (January)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (February)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (December)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, begins a three-day visit to Japan to review the country’s nuclear power plants.

· South Korea's constitutional court continues hearings this week on whether President Yoon Suk Yeol should be removed from office over his short-lived martial law order in December. That ruling is expected early next month. On Thursday, a Seoul district court will begin Yoon's criminal trial on insurrection charges.

· Singapore’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Lawrence Wong, delivers the government's 2025 budget in a critical election year. As a key step in preparing for the city-state's general election due by November, observers are expecting new policies and generous support measures aimed at tackling the most pressing voter concerns, such as rising living costs.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Th EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU competitiveness and improving the business environment, the situation in Ukraine, the EU budget for 2026, and the economic governance framework.

· France’s upper House of Parliament is expected to debate and vote on the highly controversial 2025 Social Security budget.

· Today is the inauguration of President Zoran Milanovic in Croatia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has a “fireside chat” in Brussels with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Belgian think-tank Bruegel, on “preserving and enhancing open financial markets.”

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a livestreamed MNI Connect video conference “The ECB's Balance Sheet Policies and Implications in the Current Economic Context”.

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (January/Labour Productivity Final Q3

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q4

· France Inflation Rate Final (January)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)/ ZEW Current Conditions (February)

· Belarus GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement expires unless extended. The initial deal, brokered by the US and France, began in November and halted nearly 14 months of conflict by requiring both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Gambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q4/ Unemployed Persons Q4/ Annual Budget Speech

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

· Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund will host the third FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, United States, through Feb. 21, and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend and speak.

· The Caricom Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community meet in Barbados.

· The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Department of Labor nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

· The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through Saturday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Household Balance Sheets” at the Martin H. Crego Lecture in Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York.

· US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/14)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Redbook (February/15)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/14

· Brazil Business Confidence (February)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s Parliament vote on proposed rail line to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board member Jajimi Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in Miyagi, Japan.

· New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q4/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Machinery Orders (December)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (January)/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q4

· China House Price Index (January)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (February)

· India M3 Money Supply (February/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission will present its “vision” for agriculture.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will give an annual speech at Russia's State Duma on Russia's foreign policy priorities.

· The French Parliament will examine a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Francois Bayrou tabled by the center-left Socialist Party for his recent controversial remarks on immigration.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland speaks on a panel at the Currency Research Central Bank Payments summit in Paris on “what can be the next game changer.”

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI Output & Input (January)/ Retail Price Index (January)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (December)

· Italy Current Account (December)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (December)

· Russia PPI (January)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The leaders of five Arab countries hold a summit on Donald Trump's Gaza plan in Cairo. The leaders of Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan will attend. Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas is rumored to be attending, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (January)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the annual national budget to parliament.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Global

· G20 Foreign Ministers will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, to meet. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russia's Sergei Lavrov will be there.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg will visit Kyiv, Ukraine, for meetings regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and President Trump’s efforts to start peace talks.

· The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Linda McMahon to be Secretary of Education.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech entitled “Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve” at the 2025 Whittington Lecture, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of New York.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Chicagoland Chamber Mid-Market Chicago event.

· Mexico Retail Sales (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Canada New Housing Price Index (January)/ PPI (January)/ Raw Materials Prices (January)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February)/ CB Leading Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/20)/Fed Balance Sheet (February/19)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (February)

· Colombia Cement Production (December)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Halifax International Security Forum starts a two-day conference in Taipei. It is the first time the Forum has been held in Taiwan, and the conference's theme is to "highlight Taiwan's thriving democracy for global leaders," with a series of on- and off-the-record discussions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/15)

· Australia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

· Indonesia Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Taiwan Export Orders (January)/ Current Account Q4

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga is due to address the IISS-Asia strategic think tank in Singapore (the Shangri La Conference).

· Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gives the annual State of the Nation speech.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Sasha Mills, executive director of financial market infrastructure at the Bank of England, speaks at the UK T+1 Accelerated Settlement Market event hosted by KPMG in London.

· Germany PPI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)/ Central Government Debt (January)

· Greece Current Account (December)

· Italy Construction Output (December)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January)/ Employment Growth (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ PPI (January)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

· Euro Area Construction Output (December)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (February)

· Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)/ Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)

· Slovakia Current Account (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (January)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The French Army will officially hand over control of their military base in Abidjan, Ivory Coast – one of France’s last outposts in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (December)

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 21, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Central Bank Communication at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Economic Activity (December)

· Canada Retail Sales (December)/ Retail Sales Final (December)/ BoC Gov Macklem Speech

· USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February)/Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/21)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (February)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Australia S&P Global Australia Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (January)

· India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)

· China FDI (YTD) (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote speech at the FIW-Research Conference on International Economics in Vienna, Austria.

· Great Britain Retail Sales (January)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (January)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (January)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (January)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

· Serbia PPI (January)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Saturday, February 22, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani visits the Philippines for talks with his Filipino counterpart, Gilbert Teodoro, including about an intelligence-sharing agreement. The move follows Tokyo's supply of air defense radar equipment to Manila in 2023, and forms part of an effort to strengthen defense collaboration with like-minded countries around China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion Day in Algeria, a national holiday celebrating the revolution in 2019, throwing off the autocratic reign of power of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

· Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country. Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor. But it is unclear what sort of coalition he will after form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

· Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/14/25 Francis Kelly 2/14/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The OCC Gets An Acting Comptroller, The CFPB Is Ordered to Stop Doing Whatever It’s Doing, Congress Starts Moving on Crypto Legislation, And Treasury Gets a New Assistant Secretaries for Financial Markets and Financial Institutions

February 10 - 14, 2025

While President Trump has yet to nominate anyone to any major financial regulatory post other than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) (Paul Atkins as Chair), he has overseen the installation of a number of acting heads. The latest is Rodney Hood as the Acting Comptroller of the Currency.

Hood, who served as Chair of the National Credit Union Administration during President Trump's first term and remained as Vice Chair during most of the Biden Administration, has a strong pedigree in banking, having held senior positions at Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and J.P. Morgan Chase.

What is interesting is that this is only an acting role. Hood reportedly does not want to be made full-time and will only serve until President Trump selects someone else. Hood joins the "Acting Club" with Caroline Pham as the Acting Chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Travis Hill as Acting Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Mark Uyeda as Acting Chair of the SEC (until Atkins is confirmed), and Russel Voight (the newly confirmed Director of the Office of Management and Budget) as the Acting Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

The CFPB is the hot topic of the week here in Washington, especially since Voight took over the Acting role from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Voight has ordered agency employees not to come into work or perform any work tasks – including moving on any ongoing litigation. Moreover, Voight has instructed the Federal Reserve – which funds the CFPB out of its budget – not to send any more money as it is not "reasonably necessary to carry out its duties." What is clear is the Trump Administration wants to do away with the CFPB – to the loud cheering of virtually every financial institution regulated by the agency – and, if they cannot outright shut it down, then starve it to death financially.

The National Treasury Employees Union, which represents CFPB employees, has sued Voight, asking a judge to halt his orders and block Elon Musk's DOGE staffers from accessing internal CFPB communications systems. If you go to the CFPB's website, you get the always ominous "404: Page Not Found" message (see screenshot below).

Over at Treasury this past week, there were two particularly important nominations for the financial services sector. Jason Trennert, the founder and Chair of Strategas Research Partners, was nominated to the role of Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets, and Luke Pettit, an aide to Senator Hagerty and previously at Bridgewater Associates and, before that, the Federal Reserve, was nominated to be Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee continue rapidly accelerating their legislative strategies for the year. House Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) and his top deputy on cryptocurrency policy unveiled a draft bill last week to create a stablecoins regulatory structure. The legislation closely mirrors legislation offered in the Senate by Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) and co-sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and a number of other members.

There is not much happening at the regulatory agencies this coming week. The big events are Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's semi-annual testimony before Congress on the State of the Economy and Governor Christopher Waller's interesting and timely speech in San Francisco on Stablecoins.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Tuesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress." Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify.

House of Representatives

Tuesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Examining the Economic Crisis in Farm Country.”
Tuesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Judiciary Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Reining in the Administrative State: Regulatory and Administrative Law Reform."
Tuesday, February 11, 2:30 p.m. – The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee holds a hearing on "A Golden Age of Digital Assets: Charting a Path Forward."
Wednesday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "The Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report." Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify.
Wednesday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing on "Driving Economic Growth: SBA Lending Programs and the Vital Role of Community Banks."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday, February 11, 3:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Bank Regulation at the 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference.
Wednesday, February 12, 5:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the A Very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications, San Francisco, California.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, February 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Tuesday, February 11, 1:00 p.m. – Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a virtual meeting of the Consumer Advisory Board to discuss broad policy matters related to the Bureau's Unified Regulatory Agenda and general scope of authority (NOTE: This meeting is likely to be cancelled).
Wednesday, February 12, 1:00 p.m. – The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a virtual meeting of the Combined Community Bank Advisory Council and Credit Union Advisory Council to discuss broad policy matters related to the Bureau's Unified Regulatory Agenda and general scope of authority (NOTE: This meeting is likely to be canceled).

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

Thursday, February 13, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board of Directors holds a meeting to consider a regulatory burden final notice.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

Wednesday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – the FCSIC Board of Director will hold a meeting. The agenda includes review and setting of insurance premium accrual rates (Open); Policy statement concerning contracting (Open); Report on biennial liquidity assistance exercise (Closed); Annual report on Contracts (Closed); and Annual report on whistleblower activity (Closed)

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Tuesday, February 11, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 U.S. Regulatory & Compliance Orientation Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Monday – Tuesday, February 10 – 11 – Compliance Week holds its “Cyber Risk & Data Privacy Summit” in Washington, D.C.
Monday – Tuesday, February 10 – 11 – The Washington International Trade Association holds its 2025 Washington International Trade Conference. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) delivers a luncheon keynote address on Monday.
Tuesday, February 11, 3:00 p.m. – the Federalist Society will hold a virtual discussion entitled Cryptocurrency after the Election.”
Thursday, February 13, 9:00 a.m. – PunchBowl News hosts "The Summit: Tax Policy," discussing tax policy in the new administration.
Thursday, February 13, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual event entitled “Is “Twin Peaks’ the Future of Financial Supervision?”
Thursday, February 13, 9:45 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a conference entitled “The Outlook for Retirement Security in a New Congress.”
Thursday, February 13, 11:00 a.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 11 a.m., on "Recapitalizing the GSEs (government-sponsored enterprises) through Administrative Action: Impact on Mortgage Rates and the MBS (mortgage-backed security) Market."

Francis Kelly 2/9/25 Francis Kelly 2/9/25

Global Week Ahead

The AI Action Summit Convenes in Paris, Trump Meets with Indian Prime Minister Modi as Secretary of State Rubio Meets with EU Foreign Ministers, and Powell Goes to Capitol Hill

February 9 - 16, 2025

Europe serves as the host of two important geopolitical events this week. First, the growing opportunity and risk of Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominate the attention of world leaders and prominent business CEOs this week as the AI Action Summit kicks off in Paris. Co-hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron, the event will include attendees from 80 countries, including U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. There are expected to be more than 100 side events, and in total, more than 10,000 people will attend. The event is expected to focus on both the risks and opportunities AI offers.

Second, European foreign ministers will gather and meet with newly sworn-in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday for the first time. Rubio will also meet with Ukrainian Foreign minster Andrii Sybiha to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely President Trump’s plans to seek a peace treaty with Russia. Rubio will then travel on to the Munich Security Conference in Germany following by visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to discuss the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

While all this is going on, in the U.S., President Trump will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington to discuss trade issues and how to further expand the mutual defense and security relationship between India and the U.S. including the opportunity for India to increase purchases of leading U.S. military technology. The relationship between Trump and Modi was strong during his first term and has remained so ever since. What market are likely to be focused on most of all is any discussion between the two leaders over attracting manufacturing in China to India and the U.S.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be focused on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s semiannual economic reports to Congress. Powell starts Tuesday when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee and then on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell’s testimony comes as US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production reports are released this week.

Turning to Asia, China’s CPI and PPI are out this week, and Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey and PPI are released this week. In Europe, the UK’s 4th quarter GDP is out as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with the European Parliament to discuss the economy and ECB policy.

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections. 137 seats in the National Assembly are up for a vote. And incumbent President Daniel Noboa is likely to win re-election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese asset freeze sanctions on 18 Chinese companies for helping Russia evade sanctions will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will transition from the Soviet-era BRELL grid to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.

· Kosovo holds parliamentary elections for 120 seats.

· Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Prince Karim Al-Hussaini, the Aga Khan IV and spiritual leader of Ismaili Muslims will be buried in Aswan, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Global

· The AI Action Summit convenes in Paris begins in Paris. It will be co-chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron. Multiple leaders from around the world are expected to attend.

· United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Paris to attend the AI Action Summit. He is expected to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders on the sidelines of the Summit to discuss other issues including Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza.

· The United Nations he Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Candidates for the Organization of American States' new secretary general will present their candidacies.

· The Delphi Forum will begin in Washington, D.C. The Greek-focused forum will include speakers from Congress and business.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Production (January)

· Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s new targeted 10 percent tariffs on the US are due to take effect.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Paris to co-chair the AI Action Summit through Tuesday. He goes on to Washington to meet with President Trump on Wednesday and Thursday.

· Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit China through February 14. New Zealand has objected to the meetings over security concerns.

· US and South Korean military forces will take part in a live-fire training exercise in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (January)

· Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Construction Output Q4

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

· China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Vehicle Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Warsaw, Poland.

· German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius in Berlin, Germany.

· Church of England General Synod meeting begins. On the agenda are safeguarding proposals following the independent review by Keith Makin into the church’s handling of allegations of serious abuse by the late Archbishop John Smyth and other church leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will brief member of the European Parliament on
the state of European and global economic affairs as well as giving an update on the European Central Bank’s activities. The meeting takes place in Strasbourg, France.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills will deliver remarks at the Chair/CEO/INEDs Roundtable for UK Financial Market Infrastructure firms.

· Netherlands Manufacturing Production (December)

· Romania Balance of Trade (December)

· Turkey Industrial Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

· Greece Industrial Production (December)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

· Germany Bundesbank Balz Speech

· Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran’ celebrates Revolution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

· Jordan's King Abdullah II will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. They will discuss the situation in Gaza as well as Syria. Abdullah is also expected to discuss the pause of US Agency for International Development (AID) aid to Jordan which has been paused.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Bank Regulation at the 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on the economic outlook before the University of Kentucky Gatton School of Business and Economics 2025 Economic Outlook Conference.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote remarks before the Pace University Economics Society in New York.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ Redbook (February/08)/WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/07)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (January)

· Mexico Industrial Production (December)

· Canada Building Permits (December)

· El Salvador PPI (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippine midterm election season for parliamentary and local elections officially begins.

· Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Board of Directors holds its first board meeting in the US. They will visit the company’s Arizona facility – its first cutting edge facility to build overseas.

· Japan celebrates National Foundation Day, a national holiday celebrating the founding of the nation in 660BC. Government offices, schools, banks and many companies close for the day

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Members of the European Parliament and representatives from the European Commission and the Polish Council Presidency will assess the current state of EU-US trade relations, multilateralism, and the EU’s potential responses if the US imposes tariffs on European products.

· Members of the European Parliament will meet to discuss how to address the US government’s recent decision to restrict the export of AI Chips to certain EU Member States.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote speech at the London campus of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, titled “Are we underestimating changes in financial markets?”

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the Nuremberg Talks Series' panel discussion organized by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung in Nürnberg, Germany.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at Leeds Beckett Univeristy on “Economic Prospects.”

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

· Ireland Construction PMI (January)

· France Unemployment Rate Q4

· Turkey Retail Sales (December)/ Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

· Slovakia Construction Output (December)

· Russia Balance of Trade (December)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Bruno Lemarquis, the United Nation’s Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). He will brief reporters virtually on the situation in the DRC.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Global

· The United Nation’s Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1591 Committee (dealing with Sudan). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultation on the Middle East (Syria).

· OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee to present his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Washington, D.C. for meetings with President Trump through February 13. The discussions are likely to focus on India’s trade surplice and how to improve Indian investment in the US. They will also discuss how to continue to attract manufacturing in China to both India and the US. A big focus will be on the growing defense cooperation between the two countries.

· Ontario premier Doug Ford, chair of the Council of the Federation, leads a joint mission of Canadian premiers to Washington to meet key members of the Trump administration, Congress and business leaders to lobby for maintaining strong Canada-US relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the A Very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications, San Francisco, California.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will give remarks at the Atlanta Chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors.

· USA MBA Purchase Index (February/07)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Fed Chair Powell Testimony/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/07)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)/ Fed Waller Speech

· Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam holds an Extraordinary Session of the National Assembly in Hanoi through February 17. The meeting brings together the Standing Boards of the National Assembly with the Government’s party Committees and they will focus on national defense and security, approve four laws and five resolutions designed to revamp institutional frameworks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4

· Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment NOV

· India Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Defense Minister John Healey convenes the Ukraine Defense Contact Grupo in Ramstein, Germany.

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join the foreign ministers from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Paris, France.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event.

· Megan Greene, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks on the impact of global developments on the UK at the Institute of Directors in London.

· The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin on the EU’s Green investment needs in the EU and their funding.

· Italy Industrial Production (December)

· Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech

· Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Current Account (December)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Erdogan will also attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meetings (HLSCC) in Indonesia and Pakistan. Erdogan will also travel to Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union (AU) Assembly and the AU Executive Council will meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Global

· The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a consultation on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The International Energy Administration releases its February Oil Market Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to the Munich Security Conference in Germany and then will travel on to Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia through February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (December)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/08)/ PPI (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/07)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/12)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai will travel to China to sign an agreement on a cross-border rail line for transporting coal.

· The Indonesia Motor Show begins in Jakarta and runs through February 23. More than 30 auto manufacturers will be in attendance.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

· Japan PPI (January)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4

· Indonesia Car Sales (January)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Defense Chiefs are scheduled to meet in Brussels.

· French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a conference on Syria in Paris to support a fair and inclusive political.

· Pope Francis hosts a workshop, Tax Justice and Solidarity, with speakers including former South African president Thabo Mbeki and Brazil’s current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded interview at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2025.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP (December)/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)

· Germany Inflation Rate (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Romania Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)

· Turkey Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)

· Hungary Industrial Production (December)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Economic Bulletin/ Industrial Production (December)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)

Friday, February 14, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (December)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)/ Wholesale Sales (December)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

· USA Export & Import Prices (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Business Inventories (December)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (December)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/14)

· Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export & Import Prices (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Food Inflation (January)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/08)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/08)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q4

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

· India WPI Food Index (January)/ WPI Fuel (January)/ WPI Inflation (January)/ WPI Manufacturing (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/31)/ Deposit Growth (January/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Munich Security Forum begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Hungary Construction Output (December)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Spain Inflation Rate (January)

· Poland Inflation Rate (January)

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Employment Change Q4

· Greece Inflation Rate (January)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Serbia Building Permits (December)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (January)/ M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

· Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Abkhazia holds presidential elections following the resignation of Aslan Bzhania following wide-spread national protests.

· Taiwan holds local by-elections.

· Togo holds senatorial legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Serbia celebrates Statehood Day, a two-day national holiday marking the day in 1804 when the first Serbian Uprising took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union (AU) Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/7/25 Francis Kelly 2/7/25

The Global Week Ahead

Tariffs On Canada, Japan, and China Go Live, Trump Meets With Netanyahu To Discuss Gaza and Iran And Then With Japan’s Ishida On China and US-Japan Trade, And EU Leaders Gather To Discuss Defense and Security Policy

President Trump promised he would bring tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China if they did not do more to curb illegal immigration and the flow of Fentanyl in the US, and he made good on his threat on Saturday.

Many market participants we spoke to were hopeful a deal would be worked out in time and seemed surprised Trump moved on slapping 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10 percent tariffs on China. Canada immediately responded with retaliatory measures, putting 25 percent tariffs on US exports to Canada, including beer, food products, and appliances. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is readying counter-tariffs, and China said it would sue the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The big question now is: How long will this last? The answer is anyone’s guess because it is not clear exactly how Trump will be satisfied by any of the three countries on illegal immigration and drug trafficking—what is the metric of success? Hopefully, that will become clearer in the coming days, and a deal can be hammered out.

Looking ahead, Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza, possible next steps, and overall policy toward Iran. It is Trump’s first formal meeting with a foreign leader since returning to office.

Later in the week, Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House. Japan has been both upset and nervous with Washington of late as former President Biden blocked Nippon Steel’s bid to buy US Steel on spurious national security grounds (Nippon Steel is suing the US government over the ruling, and the court case begins this week). And Japan has been nervous about where they stand with President Trump vis a vi China as Trump officials have been talking about a “Grand Bargain” with China. Ishiba is likely to raise the Nippon Steel issue with Trump in the hope that Trump could perhaps broker a deal that appeases the US steel union and allows Nippon to move forward with the acquisition. He will also talk to Trump about Japan potentially helping to financially support the building of a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska and become a major gas purchaser.

In Europe this week, we are watching as EU leaders gather for a meeting to discuss EU defense and security needs. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is invited to attend, as is NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. While no major policy announcements are expected to come from the meeting, it does show the EU is moving more aggressively to develop stronger defense and security capabilities inside the EU as well as bolster NATO in the face of growing Russian aggression.

Turning to the global economic reporting radar screen this week, in the US we are watching the jobs report out on Friday as well as ISM indices out on Monday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday.

Turning to Europe, the Bank of England meets on rates where the market is expecting another rate cut. Other major reports out this week is the Eurozone CPI German industrial production, trade balance, and factory orders, and France’s industrial production and trade balance.

Finally, moving over to Asia, China – coming off the Lunar New Year holiday – releases the Caixin Manufacturing PMIs on Monday and Services PMIs on Wednesday. Japan releases the December labor cash earnings figures and the Bank of Japan summary of opinions from their January meeting.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic. The primary focus of this trip is to discuss illegal immigration, transnational criminal organizations, and drug trafficking. But he is also going to focus on China’s growing role in the Hemisphere – particularly in Panama as President Trump has threatened to take back the Canal due to Panama allowing the Chinese company Hutcheson Whampoa to operate the Canal as well as ports at either end of the Canal.

· Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 3, 2025

Global

· At the UN Security Conference, there will be a press briefing by Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China and President of the Security Council for February on the agenda for the month.

· OPEC+ holds a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting in Vienna.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nippon Steel’s lawsuit against the US Federal Government for blocking their acquisition of U.S. Steel begins.

Economic Reports/Events

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (January)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Fed Musalem Speech

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ Private House Approvals (December)/ Commodity Prices (January)

· South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (January)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal EU leaders retreat in Brussels. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have be invited to attend. According to a memo released in advance of the meeting, the leaders will be discussing defense policy.

· The French Parliament will receive President Emmanuel Macron’s budget proposal.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness and Trade Ministers in Warsaw, Poland through February 4.

· The new Special Committee on the European Democracy Shield will hold its constitutive meeting to elect a chair and vice-chair and launch the committee’s activities. It will deal with the so-called “Democracy Shield” initiative, included in the Commission’s 2024-2029 political guidelines, and other initiatives designed to counter malicious interference in EU democratic processes

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ New Car Sales (January)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (January)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travels to Washington, D.C. to meet with President Trump, making him the first foreign leader to meet with Trump since being sworn into office. The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the hostage-release cease-fire deal in Gaza and how to coordinate policy on dealing with Iran going forward.

· The US Senate Finance Committee will vote on the nomination of Robert Kennedy, Jr. to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reverse Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy to the Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ PPI (December)

· Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· USA Redbook (February/01)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/31)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)

· Colombia Exports (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China is expected to reveal data on domestic travel and spending over the Lunar New Year holidays as early as Tuesday, offering a barometer of consumer demand at a critical moment for the country's sluggish economy.

· Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate on a panel on Women in Finance during St. Brigid Day celebrations at the Embassy of Ireland in London, UK.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Romania PPI (December)

· France Budget Balance (December)

· Spain Unemployment Change (January)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline to begin negotiations on “Phase 2” of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire agreement to release hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liberation Day in Angola, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Kansas Bankers Association Harold A. Stones Government Relations Conference.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Do Non-Inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity?” at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks on economic perspectives before hybrid 31st Annual Automotive Insights Symposium.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before the Conference Board"2025: A Year in Preview" Conference

· Brazil Industrial Production (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/31)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders. Prices/ PMI (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/31/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

· Colombia PPI (January)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra travels to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss growing online fraud run by Chinese criminal syndicates aimed at Thai citizens as well as to seek China’s help in curbing negative rumors about Thailand’s safety for Chinese tourists.

· India's national capital territory goes to polls with a tense three-way contest expected between Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party and the country's main opposition Indian National Congress. More than 15.5 million people are registered to vote in the election for 70 constituencies of the Delhi assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chinese financial markets reopen after the Lunar New Year holiday.

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

· Australia S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

· Singapore Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

· China Caixin Composite PMI (January)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

· Thailand Inflation Rate (January)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/24)

· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (January)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liberation Day in San Marino.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat and a Q&A at an event organized by Peterson Institute for International Economics "The euro area in 2025" in Washington DC,

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

· France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (January)/ PPI (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

· Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (January)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (January)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Unity Day in Burundi, celebrating ethnic unity between Tutsis and Hutus.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (January)

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the future of payments at the Navigating the Future of Payments with Christopher Waller, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President May Daly speaks on economic trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the region and beyond before the Rotary Club of Oakland

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Great Britain BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (February/01)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/31)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/06)/ Fed Waller Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/05)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (January)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Nagano, Japan.

· Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· South Korea Current Account (December)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/01)/ BOJ Tamura Speech/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks at the inaugural BIS Chapultepec Conference in Mexico.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)

· Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech/ Bundesbank Balz Speech/ New Car Registrations (January)

· Romania Retail Sales (December)

· Hungary Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)

· France HCOB Construction PMI (January)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (January)/ BoE Bailey Speech

· Euro Area Retail Sales (December)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the State of the Nation Address before the South African parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

Friday, February 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Turks and Caicos Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Wisconsin Bankers Association Bank Executives Conference.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” at the 2025 Miami Economic Forum, Miami, Florida.

· Chile Inflation Rate (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

· Brazil Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Wages (January)

· USA Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Average Weekly Hours (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)/ Used Car Prices (January)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

· Argentina Industrial Production (December)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (January)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba travels to Washington to meet with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss mutual security issues in the Indo-Pacific including dealing with China. Ishiba is also expected to make the case to Trump on behalf of Nippon Steel in their blocked bid for U.S. Steel. Ishiba is also considering offering support for a $44 billion gas pipeline in Alaska as well as an offer to buy large quantities of the gas. Ishiba will also be seeking Trump's cooperation in resolving a long-running dispute with North Korea over its abduction of Japanese citizens in the '70s and '80s.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (December)/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

· Philippines Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/31)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference "VI Encuentro Económico-Asegurador" organised by Mutualidad de Abogados de España in Madrid, Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (January)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

· Spain Industrial Production (December)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

· Greece Balance of Trade (December)

· Ireland Industrial Production (December)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (January)/ SACCI Business Confidence (December)

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· North Korea celebrates Military Foundation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Switzerland will hold a referendum on an environmental initiative called “For a responsible economy within our planet’s limits.” It would aim to limit the environmental impact of Swiss consumption within ten years by aligning it with planetary boundaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador holds presidential elections and parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

· Lichtenstein holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/2/25 Francis Kelly 2/2/25

U. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

President Trump Fires CFPB Director Chopra, The Senate Banking Committee Looks At Debanking, and House Republicans To Meet on Rolling Back Regulations Via The Congressional Review Act

February 3 - 7, 2025

It has only been the second week of the Trump Administration, but it was jam-packed with Executive Orders, efforts to reorganize the government, confirmation hearings, and much, much more. But the big regulatory news of the week came this weekend when President Trump fired Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra.

Chopra has been the last remaining Biden financial regulator. No replacement has been named by Trump, and it is unclear who will run the agency until a replacement is named. The President – the surprise of many – has yet to announce any new regulators since naming Paul Atkins as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission last month.

Meanwhile, Congress continued to ramp up its work. The Senate Banking Committee announced they will be holding a hearing this coming week on debanking – an issue President Trump spoke about during his recent address to the World Economic Forum in Davos (we would note President Trump himself was debanked by several major banks in January 2021 after the January 6th riot on Capitol Hill). Taking Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) is bringing in three witnesses to testify – two who have companies that have been “debanked” including Black Rifle Coffee Founder and CEO Evan Hafer.

Black Rifle, a conservative-leaning coffee business, was apparently targeted by the FDIC who wanted them debanked because they had “black rifle” in their name (as Chair Scott pointed out in a tweet in January).

he other debanked witness will be Nathan McCauley, CEO and Co-Founder of Anchorage Digital. Anchorage was debanked following Federal Reserve, FDIC and OCC guidance in 2023 regarding crypto firms. However, Anchorage is a federally chartered bank.

Over in the House Financial Services Committee, Republican members are going to hold a one-day retreat (but are not going far – they are holding it across the street from the Capitol in the Library of Congress). The big focus of the retreat will be to discuss which financial regulations passed in the last year that can be repealed by passage of the Congressional Review Act (to understand what that is and how Congress is able to reach in and repeal regulatory rulemaking, you can go HERE.).

The Committee is also holding two hearings next week – one looking at how to “make community banking great again” and the second looking at the Biden Administration’s efforts to “put crypto in the crosshairs.”

Turning to the regulators themselves, there is not a lot going on this week (as there are no chairs at any of the agencies yet). We will be watching, however, two speeches being given by Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman on bank regulation. Bowman continues to be the odds-on favorite to be chosen by President Trump to be the next Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. We should note that state banking organizations from all 50 states sent a letter to Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent on Friday urging President Trump to name Bowman the Vice Chair (you can read the letter HERE).

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Monday, February 3, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee is expected to vote on the nomination of Brooke Rollins as Secretary of Agriculture.

· Wednesday, February 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hold a hearing on "Investigating the Real Impacts of Debunking in America."

· Wednesday, February 5, 10:30 a.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Perspectives from the Field: Farmer and Rancher Views on the Agricultural Economy.”

· Thursday, February 6, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, February 4 – The House Financial Services Committee Republicans will hold a retreat at the Library of Congress to discuss strategy for 2025 including regulations they want to roll back using the Congressional Review Act.

· Wednesday, February 5, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Make Community Banking Great Again."

· Thursday, February 6, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Operation Choke Point 2.0: The Biden Administration's Efforts to Put Crypto in the Crosshairs”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, February 4, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reverse Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy to the Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania.

· Wednesday, February 5, 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Kansas Bankers Association Harold A. Stones Government Relations Conference.

· Wednesday, February 5, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Do Non-Inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity?” at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania.

· Thursday, February 6, 2:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the future of payments at the Navigating the Future of Payments with Christopher Waller, Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.

· Friday, February 7, 9:25 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Brief Economic Update and Bank Regulation” at the 2025 Wisconsin Bankers Association Bank Executives Conference.

· Friday, February 7, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” at the 2025 Miami Economic Forum, Miami, Florida.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, February 4, 9:00 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a closed meeting of the Debt Management Advisory Committee to discuss the economy, financial markets, treasury financing, and debt management and to present a written report of its recommendations.

Department of Commerce

· The U.S. Senate will likely vote early in the week to confirm Howard Lutnick as the new Secretary of Commerce (Date To Be Confirmed)

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· The U.S. Senate will likely vote early in the week to confirm Scott Turner as the new Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (Date To Be Confirmed)

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, February 5, 3:00 p.m. – SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will participate in a one-on-one conversation at the SIFMA Women’s Leadership Forum DC.

· Thursday, February 6, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Sunday & Monday, February 2 & 3 – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak at the Commodity Market Council’s 2025 State of the Industry conference in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

· Monday, February 3, 3:15 p.m. – CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak at a keynote fireside chat at Commodity Market Council’s 2025 State of the Industry Conference in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

· Thursday, February 6, 4:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a panel, Decoding DeFi, at the Digital Assets at Duke Conference at Duke University’s Pratt School of Engineering and Duke Financial Economics Center in Durham, North Carolina.

· Thursday, February 6, 5:30 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will moderate a fireside chat with the Honorable Sharon Bowen at the Financial Service Professional’s 10-year anniversary celebration in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, February 6, 2:00 p.m. – The NCU will hold a webinar outlining the agency’s 2025 supervisory priorities.

FINRA

Tuesday, February 4, 4:30 p.m. – FINRA holds a Webinar on new and updated regulatory notifications.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday – Wednesday, February 3 – 5 – The Investment Company Institute holds its 2025 ICI Innovate Conference in Huntington Beach, California.

· Tuesday, February 4 – SIFMA hosts the C&L Society Forum in New York.

· Tuesday, February 4, 2:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a forum on "Manufactured for the Future: Building a Climate-Resilient Manufactured Housing Stock."

· Tuesday, February 4, 1:00 p.m. – The American Bar Association holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1 p.m., on the antitrust agenda of Representative Scott Fitzgerald, (R-Wis.), who was recently named chairman of the House Judiciary Committee's Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust Subcommittee.

· Wednesday, February 5, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion on affordable housing featuring Oregon Governor Tina Kotek.

· Wednesday, February 5, 2:30 – 6:00 p.m. – SIFMA holds its Women’s Leadership Forum DC in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, February 5, 9:00 a.m. – European Central Bank Board Member Philip Lane will give a webinar talk entitled “The Euro Area in 2025.”

Francis Kelly 1/31/25 Francis Kelly 1/31/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Senate Banking And House Financial Services Committees Rev Up for A Busy Year, Banks Wondering Where are the New Financial Regulators?

The inaugural was cold but exciting. Lots of parties and fun times (or so we heard – we stayed home. Just too cold for us!). Now, Washington is back to work. The two key financial services-focused committees in Congress – the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) and the Senate Banking Committee are beehives of meetings and strategy sessions.

The HFSC has announced a full agenda for February, holding at least five hearings ranging from “Making Community Banking Great Again” to hearings on crypto and the California wildfires and the insurance industry to examining policies to counter China.

The Senate Banking Committee is also beginning to announce a series of hearings in February, starting with one looking at debanking in America.

But Washington’s regulatory world is chattering amongst themselves, all asking the same question: Where are President Trump’s much-anticipated nominations for the financial regulatory agencies? So far, the President has nominated only one regulator – Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. Moreover, two Biden regulators are still in their chairs and working away – CFPB Director Rohit Chopra and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu. Having Chopra there is driving banks crazy as they are hoping for a more friendly regulator and fast.

And when will we formally hear who is replacing Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr, overseeing supervision? There are only two options for President Trump as there are only two Republicans on the Board (aside from Fed Chair Jay Powell) to pick from: Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Everyone assumes Bowman will be the pick as she is a former state bank commissioner and a community banker. But for whatever reason, nothing has happened. We are monitoring the nomination process closely.

But for now, below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week (there really isn’t much going on:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, January 29, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services Secretary.

· Wednesday, January 29, 3:30 p.m. – The Senate Special Committee on Aging holds a hearing on "Making Washington Work for Seniors: Fighting to End Inflation and Achieve Fiscal Sanity."

House of Representatives

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday & Wednesday, January 28 – 29 – The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rates. There will be a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on January 29.

· Friday, January 31, 8:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give Brief Remarks on the Economy and Perspectives on Mutual and Community Banks at the Northern New England CEO Summit.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, January 27, 11:15 a.m. – SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce will speak at the 52nd Annual Securities Regulation Institute in Chicago, Illinois.

· Tuesday, January 28 – The Securities Enforcement Forum New York takes place in New York. A number of senior SEC staff will be speaking.

· Thursday, January 30, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Friday, January 31, 12:05 pm. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a panel entitled Market Structure Developments at the ABA Business Law Section’s Derivatives and Futures Law Committee Winter Meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Monday, January 27, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC holds an event entitled Helping Military Consumers Protect Against Scams & Identify Theft.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· January 26-29 – The American Bankers Association holds its annual Insurance Risk Management Forum in San Diego, California.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, January 27, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “The present and future of fast payment systems.”

· Monday, January 27, 3:30 p.m. – The Federalist Society holds a webinar entitled “Frozen Out: Debanking Practice and Policy in the New Administration.”

· Wednesday, January 29 - The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual conference, beginning at 9 a.m., on "Transatlantic Perspectives on U.S.-China Geoeconomic Competition."

Francis Kelly 1/26/25 Francis Kelly 1/26/25

The Global Week Ahead

Will the Trump Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and Canada Begin This Week? Rubio Goes to Latin America; the Lunar New Year Celebration Begins in Asia, and A Big Week for Central Banks

January 26 - February 2, 2025

It will be a very busy week ahead, both politically and economically. President Trump has threatened to put 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China unless there is progress on illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking (he placed 25 percent tariffs and a travel ban on Colombia Sunday for refusing to take back deported Colombians). The question now is, will there be some progress, or are the tariffs a fait acompli?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a series of meetings in Latin America, traveling to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. While Rubio is expected to focus on migration issues, he will also likely discuss the situation in Venezuela and trade and security issues. It is Rubio’s first trip as Secretary of State, indicating that Latin America will be a significant focus of the new Trump Administration.

In Asia, we note Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is traveling to Beijing for two days of meetings. This is the second high-level set of meetings between India and China in the last two months, all to improve tense relations between the two countries. The meetings take place as most of the major markets in Asia get ready to celebrate the Lunar New Year and China celebrates its annual eight-day Spring Festival – which serves as a major consumer spending event in China and will be indicative of how strong the Chinese economy is as the country continues to struggle with its massive real estate crisis.

In Europe, EU Foreign Ministers meet this week to discuss how to move forward on renewing sanctions on Russia. Hungary is trying to block the renewal of sanctions, causing significant tensions. The ministers are also expected to discuss EU-US relations and how best to work with the new Trump Administration.

In the United States, three of President Trump’s arguably most controversial nominees will get their Senate confirmation hearings this week. FBI Director-designate Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, and Health and Human Service Secretary nominee Robert Kennedy will each appear before the respective US Senate committees.

Turning the Middle East, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah expires today. What happens next is unclear. The expiration comes as the fragile ceasefire with Hamas continues to hold and as Israeli and US hostages are slowly being released.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it’s a big week for central banks as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Brazil all meet to decide interest rates.

Beyond the central bank action and breaking down the week by region, the US will see Q4 GDP numbers, December PCE inflation print on Thursday, and Q4 employment cost index figures on Friday. These come after the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report and durable goods orders come out on Tuesday.

In Europe, January CPI flash numbers are out Friday for Germany and France, and the Eurozone CPI’s following Monday.

In Asia, markets are closed in most major markets for the Lunar New Year, and in Australia, markets are closed for the Australia Day holiday. But China – celebrating an eight-day Spring Festival holiday – will release January PMIs, and Japan will release its CPI print, PMIs, and industrial production figures.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump announces 25 percent tariffs on Colombia for refusing to accept U.S. plans carrying deported Colombian nationals.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India celebrates Republic Day, a national holiday celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950. There will be a large military parade through New Delhi.

· Today is Australia Day, a national holiday, commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Belarus holds presidential elections.

· In Berlin, Germany's Greens hold a party congress ahead of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire expires.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 27, 2025

Global

· Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting and briefing on ICC Sudan, which will include the International Criminal Court report on Darfur.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Tapachula, Mexico, a new migrant caravan set to depart southern Mexico despite Trump immigration crackdown.

· Venezuela's opposition leader Gonzalez Urrutia meets with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa.

· Canada’s legislature returns to session in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ New Home Sales (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Building Permits Final (December)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

· Colombia Business Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri travels to Beijing for two days of meetings with Chinese Vice Minister Sun Weidong. It is the second high-level meeting between India and China in the last two months, all in an effort to de-escalate tensions between the two countries.

· Australia Day is observed. Financial markets are closed.

· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosts Indonesian President Prabowo in Putrajaya, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)/ NBS General PMI (January)

· Japan Coincident Index Final (November)/ Leading Economic Index Final (November)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum holds an 80th anniversary commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz with a ceremony held in a special tent built over the gate to the former Auschwitz-Birkenau camp. Guests include King Charles.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Foreign Ministers will discuss the War in Ukraine and extend sanctions on Russia. They will also discuss the state of EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East (focusing on Syria and Gaza), and the situation in Moldova and Georgia.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will exchange views on the proposed regulation on cross-border enforcement of the EU rules on unfair trading practices in the agricultural and food supply chain, as well as on the proposed regulation amending the common market organization as regards the strengthening of the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro in Lisbon, Portugal. He then travels to Madrid, Spain to meet with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Luc Frieden, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

· The Arctic Frontiers Annual Conference begins in Tromso, Norway.

· Paris Fashion Week begins. Will Derek Zoolander be there this year?

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded Lámfalussy Lecture at the Lámfalussy Lectures Conference organized by the Hungarian Central Bank. Later, she will give welcome remarkets at a commemorative event on the occasion of International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

· Turkey Business Confidence (January)/ Capacity Utilization (January)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (January)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (December)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (January)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

· Greece Total Credit (December)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Spain Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks. She then travels on to Bahrain for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ghana President Dramani Mahama visits Angola for bilateral talks.

· The Africa Energy Summit begins in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentine rail workers will launch a nationwide six-hour strike after negotiations with rail operator Ferrocarriles Argentinos broke down.

· Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the 2025 Doomsday Clock time. Last year, the clock was reset at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight it has been in its nearly 80 years of existence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Durable Goods Orders (December)/ Redbook (January/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services/ Revenues Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/24)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In China, the Spring Festival, a national holiday, begins and runs until February 4th. The holiday will be watched by markets to gauge the strength of Chinese consumers’ willingness to spend despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Malaysia PPI (December)

· Singapore Imports/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission unveils a roadmap for restoring EU competitiveness.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Polish presidency’s (Poland) priorities for the next six months.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Emil Horatiu Hurezeanu at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends and offers an exchange of views with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the Governing Council event in Brussels.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a virtual panel discussion at the conference "T2, T1, T0: Go! The future of financial markets and their infrastructures: What’s ahead?" organized by Banque de France in Paris.

· Bank of England Executive Director Rebecca Jackson gives a speech at UK Finance entitled “Prime Brokerage” in London.

· France Consumer Confidence (January)

· Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

· Slovenia Retail Sales (December)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (December)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s ban on operations by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees goes into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

· Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will have his confirmation hearing in the US Senate.

· Canada’s Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue to release final report of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference.

· Former US Senator Robert Menendez is sentenced following his conviction for bribery and corruption charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee’s Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference.

· The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ Press Conference

· The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/24)/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (December)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline/ Heating Oil/ Refinery Crude Runs Stocks Change (January/24)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Lunar New Year, celebrated across many countries in South-East Asia. Financial markets are closed in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

· Azerbaijan holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan publishes its Policy Meeting Minutes/ Consumer Confidence (January)

· Australia Inflation Rate Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (December)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ CPI Q4/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q4

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand New Car Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The embezzlement trial of the former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov begins in Moscow.

· British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives a speech on economic growth in London.

· German Economy Minister Robert Habeck presents the national 2025 economic report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council monetary policy meeting begins in Frankfurt.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q4

· Euro Area Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

· Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

· Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade (December)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)/ M1 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Robert Kennedy, President Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, has his confirmation hearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pension Committee.

· Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard will have her confirmation hearing in the Senate.

· FBI Director nominee Kash Patel will have his Senate confirmation hearing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Net Payrolls (December)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

· USA GDP Growth Rate/ Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/25)/ GDP Sales Q4/ PCE Prices Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/29)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Development Bank Institute holds a two-day online conference entitled “From Crisis to Resilience, Shaping the Future of Banking in Asia and the Pacific.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/25)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/25)/ BoJ Himino Speech

· Australia RBA Bulletin/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4/ RBA Jones Speech/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (January)

· Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting in Brussels of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers through January 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council meets on interest rates. A press conference follows the announcement.

· Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the Treasury committee, answering questions on the latest Financial Stability Report.

· Great Britain Car Production (December)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

· Netherlands Business Confidence (January)

· France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)

· Germany Import Prices (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)/ KOF Leading Indicators (January)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (January)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

· Spain Inflation Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (January)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Sales (November)

· Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2025

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate

· Greece PPI (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger officially leave regional group Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). All three nations are leaving following coups in their respective countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate/ Budget Balance (December)

Friday, January 31, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the situation in Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a tour of Latin America. He will travel to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. There is no official agenda, but illegal migration will likely be the top issue discussed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

· USA Personal Income & Spending (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Fed Bowman Speech/ PCE Price Index (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Employment Cost - Benefits & Wages Q4/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/31)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (December)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

· Peru Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Mitsubishi Motors is expected to announce whether or not to join a planned merger with Nissan and Honda.

· Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday celebrating when the Republic declared its independence from Australia in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/Applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

· Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

· Philippines PPI (December)

· Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Business Confidence Q4

· Thailand Industrial Production (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Private Consumption & Investment (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

· India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/17)/ Deposit Growth (January/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/24)/ Infrastructure Output (December)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Unless extended by the EU, sanctions on Russia are due to expire today.

· Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Serbia for the inter-governmental summit.

· Today, on the 5th anniversary of the UK leaving the EU, the Brexit safety and security declarations for EU imports come into force.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Change Rate/ Persons Rate (January)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

· Hungary PPI (December)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (December)

· France Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

· Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Current Account (November)/ New Car Sales (January)

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

· Greece Retail Sales (November)

· Italy PPI (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Ukraine Current Account (December)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for France to remove all military forces from Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Balance of Trade (December)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Global

· China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Democratic National Committee elects a new chair.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman gives the annual budget speech to parliament for the financial year, which begins in April. The budget is expected to significantly increase government spending on infrastructure projects and the agricultural sector

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Togo holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump may impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico (to be confirmed).

· President Trump may impose 10 percent tariffs on China (to be confirmed).

· Today is Groundhog Day – Is Spring around the corner or will we have six more weeks of winter?

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 7 - 9, 2025

Russia’s War on Ukraine

The Global Week Ahead

U. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

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U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

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