Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 11/17/24 Francis Kelly 11/17/24

The Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in Brazil, The IAEA Board of Governors Meet to Discuss Iran’s Nuclear Program, the 1000-Day Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, and President-elect Trump Continues to Name His Cabinet

November 17 - 24, 2024

It will be another busy week geopolitically as G20 leaders gather in Brazil for the annual G20 Summit. While no major breakthroughs are expected at the Summit, it will be the last G20 meeting for President Joe Biden and will also lead to a number of bilateral meetings between Chinese President Xi and other leaders.

Also this week, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss the status of Iran’s ongoing – and accelerating – development of nuclear weapons. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi just returned from meetings in Iran and will report his findings to the Board. The Board is also likely to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the risk posed to nuclear power plants in Ukraine due to Russia’s war on Ukraine. This coming week will also mark the 1000 day since Russia’s invasion. EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels this week to discuss the situation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the European Parliament to mark the grim milestone.

In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump is expected to continue his rapid-fire announcements of cabinet and other senior staff picks. So far, Trump is moving at a historically fast pace in assembling his team and is likely to push the incoming Senate to push through required confirmation votes in advance of his inauguration on January 20th (the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd).

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets will be keenly focused on several major central bank speeches, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on Monday and Friday and the speech of the Central Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda on Monday.

Among the major economic data reports, the U.S. Redbook is out Tuesday, initial jobless claims are out Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Report is out Friday. In Europe, UK consumer confidence figures and retail sales are out Friday. In Asia, Japan releases trade balance figures on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Global

· The G20 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron visits Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gives a speech at parliament on Remembrance Day attended by his Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegal holds snap parliamentary elections.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nigeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 18, 2024

Global

· The G20 Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· The Council of the International Maritime Organization meets in London.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the protection of civilians in Sudan. Afterwards, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. In the afternoon at 3:30 p.m., it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

· The International Atomic Energy Commissions holds is quarterly Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria. The main focus of their meeting is expected to be Iran’s ongoing development of nuclear weapons.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give welcome remarks before the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Chile Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Canada Housing Starts (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (September)

· USA NAHB Housing Market Index (November)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (September)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong's Monetary Authority hosts its third Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit, bringing together Wall Street dealmakers and investors. It is Hong Kong's flagship event for courting global capital, as the city seeks to maintain its international financial hub status amid geopolitical tensions between China and the West.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo gives a speech in Nagoya, Japan.

· New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (October)/ PPI Input & Output Q3

· Japan Machinery Orders (September)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (October)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Services PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU Foreign affairs ministers will discuss the state of affairs in Ukraine, Georgia, EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will receive the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, at his official residence in Brussels. He will also meet with the Prime Minister of Romania, Marcel Ciolacu, at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss the situation of agricultural markets and commodities, a recurring topic on the Council's agenda. In this context, the presidency will also present an 'other business' item on the outcome of the sectoral debates it organized on the current challenges facing the different agricultural sectors and their future perspectives. The Ukrainian Minister for Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, is expected to join the ministers prior to their discussion and to address the Council.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers in Budapest responsible for demographic issues through November 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on "Les enjeux économiques et humains d'une ère en mutation" at the "Les Essentiels des Bernardins" in Paris, France

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the SUERF Marjolin lecture at the conference “Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and Policy: New Perspectives” organized by Banca d’Italia in Rome, Italy.

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q3

· Euro Area / Balance of Trade (September)

· Spain Balance of Trade (September)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (October)

· Belarus GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (October)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Global

· The G20 Summit continues in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Today is the 1000 day since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In the House of Representatives, Democrats will vote on their leadership.

· A judge in New York will consider dismissing charges against President-elect Trump over hush money payments.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI Median (October)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (October)

· USA Building Permits Prel (October)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Redbook (November/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/15)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A Hong Kong court is due to hand down sentences in the city's biggest national security trial. The case concerns the so-called Hong Kong 47 -- nearly four dozen democrats who were charged for holding unofficial primaries in July 2020 to select candidates for the city's Legislative Council election. Of the group, 45 were convicted of "conspiracy to commit subversion" under the strict national security law Beijing forced upon the city four years ago. The sentences, which could be as severe as life in prison, will be followed the next day by the resumption of another closely watched trial -- that of jailed pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses special session of European Parliament from Kyiv marking the 1000 day of the Ukraine War.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will participate in a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) in Defence Ministers’ format. The meeting will take place at the Europa building of the Council of the EU, in Brussels.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the upcoming December European Council, the annual rule of law dialogue, and other issues.

· Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey appears before parliament's Treasury Committee.

· There will be a National Farmers Union rally in London, protesting about new government policies, in particular applying inheritance tax to agricultural land.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 10th Green Finance Forum "Innovate in nature" during 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area Current Account (September)/ Inflation Rate Final (October)/ CPI Final (October)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q3

· Italy Current Account (September)

· Hungry Deposit Interest Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Spain Consumer Confidence (October)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel holds local elections for people in areas close to the border of Gaza and Lebanon who were unable to vote in February.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Global

· The International Network of AI Safety Institute meets in San Francisco to discuss global safety issues around artificial intelligence will take place. The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US.

· The UN Security Council holds closed-door meeting on Lebanon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Lula will hold bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Argentina for meetings with President Javier Milei.

· French President Emmanuel Macron visits Chile.

· India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Agency Policymaking” at The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/15)/ EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (November/15)/ EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (November/15)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (October)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (October)/ Leading Indicator (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (October)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (November)

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q3

· Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (November)

· Taiwan Export Orders (October)/ Current Account Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia’s Upper House of parliament begins considering a law banning promotion of childless lifestyles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the dinner speech at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on monetary policy at the University of Leeds.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)/ Residential Property Prices (September)

· Germany PPI (October)

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI Input & Output (October)/ Retail Price Index (October)

· Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review/ Construction Output (September)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q3

· Greece Current Account (September)

· Italy Construction Output (September)

· Russia PPI (October)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (October)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (October)

· Oman Inflation Rate (October)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

· Jordan Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Southern Africa regional bloc, the South Africa Development Community Summit, will hold a summit to discuss the post-electoral crisis in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence Q4/ Retail Sales (September)

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Global

· The BRICS International Municipal Forum Economic Congress meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.

· The UN Security Council meets on Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Washington Post holds its 3rd Annual Global Women’s Summit in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech on “Banks and Artificial Intelligence” at the 2024 FinRegLab AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to participate in conversation before the 2024 Financial Stability Conference: Emerging Risks in a Time of Interconnectedness and Innovation, hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Office of Financial Research.

· Mexico Retail Sales (September)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (October)/ PPI (October)/ Raw Materials Prices (October)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (November/16)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Paid/ Business Conditions/ Manufacturing Index (November)/ Existing Home Sales (October)/ CB Leading Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/15)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/20)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (November)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

· Paraguay PPI (October)

· Peru Current Account Q3/GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo speaks at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum 2024 being held in Tokyo.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/16)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (October)

· Indonesia Current Account Q3

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

· Thailand New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. They will discuss the future of the EU’s trade policy.

· Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets other officials to discuss Caspian sea cooperation in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the welcoming
remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the CEBRA International Finance and Macroeconomics conference "The Role of Central Banks and International Financial Institutions in the Transition Towards a Low-Carbon Economy" in Luxembourg.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 27th Annual Research Conference “The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty” organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia, Cyprus.

· Netherlands Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· European Union New Car Registrations (October)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

· France Business Confidence (November)/ Business Climate Indicator (November)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit Growth (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, November 22, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada hosts Nato parliamentary assembly annual session in Montreal, featuring 281 parliament members from 32 Nato member states addressing topics on the Euro-Atlantic Defence and security agenda.

· The Halifax International Security Forum begins in Halifax and runs through November 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence at the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington, D.C.

· Chile PPI (October)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Economic Activity (September)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

· Canada Retail Sales (September)

· USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations/ Current Conditions/ Inflation Expectations Final (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/22)

· Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

· Japan Inflation Rate (October)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

· Singapore Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (October)

· India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 34th European Banking Congress "Out of the Comfort Zone: Europe and the New World Order" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Observatorio Económico organized by El Confidencial/MAPFRE in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a fireside chat at the JPMorgan European Financials Conference in London, UK.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on Panel 3 "Monetary policy" at colloquium in honor of Claudio Borio in Basel, Switzerland.

· Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

· Hungary Gross Wage (September)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (October)

· France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

· Slovakia Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (October)

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Saturday, November 23, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine holds International Holodomor Memorial Day, commemorating the estimated 7 to 10 million people killed during the 1932-33 Holodomor (“murder by hunger”).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 2024 African Economic Conference will be held in Gaborone, Botswana, to explore ways to secure Africa’s economic future.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL). PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

· Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/17/24 Francis Kelly 11/17/24

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

Is SEC Chair Gensler Stepping Down Next Week? The Senate Judiciary Committee Finally Holds a Hearing on Visa/Mastercard, and the House Financial Services Committee Hauls Up All the Prudential Regulators for One Last Hearing

November 18 - 22, 2024

The Trump Transition is off to a record pace of naming new cabinet secretaries and senior White House staff, but no financial regulator has been named yet. We would note that the closest to a regulator being named was the surprise announcement that former SEC Chair Jay Clayton is being nominated as the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York—the U.S. Prosecutor with the most oversight of Wall Street.

But it appears the first of the sitting financial regulators is getting ready to go. SEC Chair Gary Gensler strongly hinted he would submit his resignation letter in the next week or so with a timeline for departing the building in early January. We guess most other regulators will follow suit in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Congress is spicing up things in the coming week with two hearings of note. The first is the long-awaited/much-delayed Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the “duopoly” of Visa and Mastercard. Senate Judiciary Committee Dick Durbin (D-IL) has been trying to schedule this hearing for the better part of the year and now is getting his wish with only a few weeks left in this Congress. As of Sunday afternoon, there are no announced witnesses yet, which suggests to us there is still a tug-of-war going on between the Committee and Visa and Mastercard as to who – if anyone – from the two firms will testify.

We note that this hearing will likely have some bearing on the pending Capitol One/Discovery merger and be mentioned frequently in the hearing, as proponents of the deal argue that approving the merger will help break up that supposed “duopoly.”

Also, this coming week, the House Financial Services Committee is holding an oversight hearing, which is supposed to include all the prudential regulators. While no witnesses are listed for this hearing, either, our guess is Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Marty Gruenberg would be most likely the witnesses – but the question is: will Gruenberg show? He’s been dodging the committee since the independent report was released, showing his culpability in allowing and even contributing to a highly abusive workplace at the FDIC. And he claims he will step down when the Senate confirms a replacement. But at this point, we do not see the nominee, Christy Goldsmith Romero, getting confirmed, and we will likely have to wait until President-elect Trump nominates someone – which could be months away.

Below are all the other major regulatory events we are tracking in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, November 19, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing on "Breaking the Visa-Mastercard Duopoly: Bringing Competition and Lower Fees to the Credit Card System."

· Wednesday, November 20, 2:00 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Tax Policy in 2025: Implications for the American Economy.”

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, November 20, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.”

Joint Committees

Tuesday, November 19, 2:30 p.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing on "Building on the Success of TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act): The 2025 Tax Policy Debate."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Wednesday, November 20, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the UVA Economics Presents: A Conversation with Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook and Dean Christa Acampora, Charlottesville, Virginia.

· Wednesday, November 20, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Agency Policymaking” at The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida.

· Thursday, November 21, 4:40 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech on “Banks and Artificial Intelligence” at the 2024 FinRegLab AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

· Friday, November 22, 6:15 pm. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence at the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, November 20, 11:00 a.m. – The SEC, along with the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB), and FINRA holds a Joint Compliance Outreach Program for Municipal Market Participants. The event is being held both virtually and in person in Denver, Colorado.

· Thursday, November 21, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, November 19, 9:30 a.m. CT – Chairman Rostin Behnam will give a keynote address and fireside chat at FIA’s Futures & Options Expo in Chicago, Illinois.

· Tuesday, November 20, 1:40 p.m. CT – Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will speak on a panel titled “Impact of Technology and Modernization of Clearing” at the Futures Industry Association (FIA) Futures & Options Expo 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

· Wednesday, November 20, 2:00 p.m. CT – Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel titled “24/7 Trading: Are We Ready?” at the Futures Industry Association (FIA) Futures & Options Expo 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

· Thursday, November 21, 9:30 a.m. – The CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Committee will meet. The meeting will be open to the public via live webcast or listen-only audio feed via telephone. You can find the agenda HERE.

· Thursday, November 21, 4:20 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, November 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the NCUA will hold a meeting.

· Friday, November 22, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a Public Budget Briefing.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Monday, November 18, 5:30 p.m. – FTC Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya will give a speech entitled “The FTC and Worker Surveillance” at the New York University

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday – Thursday, November 18 – 20 – The Futures Industry Association holds its 2024 Expo in Chicago, Illinois.

· Tuesday, November 19, 2:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold a virtual Industry Briefing on the U.S. Treasury Clearing Report.

· Thursday, November 21, 11:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance will hold an online event entitled “Artificial Intelligence in Latin America and the Caribbean.” The event will be held in Spanish.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, November 19, 9:15 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a event entitled “What will tax policy look like in the new Trump administration?” in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, November 19, 1:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1 p.m., on "Preservation: An Essential Response to the Housing Affordability Challenge."

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 20 – 21 – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds its 13th annual Housing Center Conference, November 20-21.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/15/24 Francis Kelly 11/15/24

The Global Week Ahead

Preparing for the 2nd Trump Presidency, Peru Hosts the APEC Summit and Brazil Hosts theG20 Leaders While a Muted COP29 Begins, and Markets Wait for A Slew of Major Economic Reports

November 13 - 17, 2024

The political world shook last Tuesday when former President Donald Trump won a sweeping victory with enough of a coattail to help carry Republicans to win control of the U.S. Senate and – as of this writing – likely holding onto a razor-thin majority of the U.S. House of Representatives The immediate fall-out has been a massive spike in geopolitical assessments in major capitals around the world, trying to get a handle on the potential impact of the return of the Trump foreign economic policy – particularly one that is now threatening across-the-board tariffs on any country Trump believes is not dealing fairly with the U.S.

The clearest directional indicator of where and how Trump is going to move on these policies will be found in his cabinet appointments. We expect the President-elect will move swiftly this coming week to begin filling out his cabinet while pressing the Republican Senate to rapidly accelerate the confirmation process as soon as the Senate is sworn into office on January 3. Why the heightened state of urgency? Our view is that Trump is a "lame duck" who cannot run for re-election in 2028. At best, according to Trump staffers we have spoken to, Trump understands he has a solid two-to-two and half years to move on his agenda before the 2028 election cycle starts up, slowing down Washington's political legislative and regulatory agendas (as they do with processes again. He's going to be a man on a mission, we have been told, to move hard and fast, more than any other President we have seen.

Also, this week, the APEC Summit begins in Peru. The event highlights the growing political and trade relations between Latin America and the Indo-Pacific. Chinese President Xi will be in attendance and will use the trip to inaugurate the controversial Chancay port in Peru. The U.S. is concerned – as are some Peruvian leaders and other regional leaders – the port, which is owned and operated by the Chinese – could be used to support Chinese Naval operations in the region.

President Biden will also be in Peru for the APEC Summit, part of a six-day trip to Peru and Brazil. While in Brazil, he will attend the G20 Summit, hold bilateral meetings with Brazil's President Lulu, and visit the Amazon Rain Forest to advocate for faster policy responses to Climate Change.

While all this is happening in Peru and Brazil, the United Nations' COP29 Summit begins in Azerbaijan. This meeting seems to be on track to be less ambitious and more muted than previous COP Summits. A number of global investment banks—normally regular and active attendees at COP meetings—are not attending. While an estimated 197 countries will be represented, far fewer national leaders will be in attendance than in prior years.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets are looking out for a raft of economic reports in the U.S., EU, China, and Japan. Despite being a shortened week for U.S. markets due to Veterans Day, markets will be intensely focused on the CPI print on Wednesday, and the PPI will be released on Thursday. Also, U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures will be out this week on Friday. Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will be speaking at a conference hosted by the Dallas Federal Reserve on Thursday.

In Europe, the UK GDP and labor market figures are released on Tuesday, Germany's ZEW survey is out on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank's minutes from its October meeting are out on Thursday. On Friday, the ECB releases the Autumn Economic GDP Forecast.

In Asia, China releases its October industrial production and retail sales figures on Friday, while Japan releases flash Q3 GDP estimates.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Primer Grito de Independencia Day in Panama, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit 2024 begins in Lima, Peru and runs through November 16.

· Mauritius holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Cambodia Independence Day, celebrating when in 1945 Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk proclaimed the country an independent kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Remembrance Day, marking the anniversary of the end of World War I in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 11, 2024

Global

· The United Nations COP9 Summit begins in Baku, Azerbaijan. More than 197 countries will participate, and it runs through November 24.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Grossi is expected to travel to Iran to discuss the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Veterans Day, a U.S. federal holiday. Most banks as well as the bond market is closed. The equity markets are open.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (September)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Diet will select a new Prime Minister in an extraordinary session of the parliament.

· Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang will meet with Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Gam Kim Yong and co-chair the 20th Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation.

· The IMF begins its mission to Pakistan to consider possible aid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (September)/ Bank Lending (October)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Sales (October)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q4

· Malaysia Construction Output Q3

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Kazakhstan PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Armistice Day in the UK and most of Europe, marking the end of World War I.

· The Paris Peace Forum begins and runs through November 12.

· The Berliner Forum on Foreign Affairs begins in Berlin, Germany. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the Malta Financial Services Authority’s (MFSA) Annual Banking Supervision Conference in St. Julian’s, Malta.

· Ireland Construction PMI (October)

· Romania Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Industrial Production (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Auto Sales (October)

· Slovakia Construction Output (September)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (September)

· Hungary Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Arab-Islamic Summit begins in Riyad., Saudi Arabia. The primary discussion will focus on the situation in Gaza.

· Syria peace talks sponsored by Russia, Turkey, and Iran will take place in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (October)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (October)/ Core Inflation Rate (October)

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli President Isaac Herzog will meet with President Biden at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments systems at the Clearing House Annual Conference, New York, New York.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in the Yahoo Finance Invest 2024"New Challenges, New Opportunities" conference.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape" before the Carnegie Mellon University Lecture Series.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Confidence (November)

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (November)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 1 to 2.5 yrs./ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Loan Officer Survey

· Canada Building Permits (September)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (October)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (October)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 15th Annual China Airshow begins in Zhuhai and runs through Sunday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November)/ NAB Business Confidence (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (October)

· India Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Parliament holds confirmation hearings for 6 executive vice presidents-designate, including Italy's Raffaele Fitto, Spain's Teresa Ribera, France's Stephane Sejourne and Finland's Henna Virkkunen, as well as Estonia's Kaja Kallas.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a high-level policy panel entitled "Financial sanctions and their implications for the international monetary system" at Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance 2024 organized by the ECB, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Netherlands Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ ZEW Current Conditions (November)/ Current Account (September)

· Romania Inflation Rate (October)

· Turkey Current Account (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Claimant Count Change (October)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Serbia Inflation Rate (October)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Tech Festival 2024 will take place in Cape Town through November 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q3/ Unemployed Persons Q3/ Manufacturing Production (September)

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Global

· The G7 Ministerial Meeting on Tourism begins in Florence, Italy.

· The UN Security Council will hold a vote on renewing Yemen sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Senate Republicans will meet to vote on who will be the chamber’s next majority leaders. Senate Democrats will hold their leadership vote in December.

· Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives will meet to vote on their leadership for 2025-2026. House Democrats will meet in on November 19 to choose their leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of Memphis.

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to give luncheon keynote before hybrid “Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/08) / MBA Purchase Index (November/08) / Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)/ Redbook (November/09) / Total Household Debt Q3/ Monthly Budget Statement (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/08)

· Peru Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (September)

· Japan PPI (October)

· Australia Wage Price Index Q3

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment AUG

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q3

· India M3 Money Supply (November/01)

· China New Yuan Loans (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (October)/ Total Social Financing (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Michel Barnier in Brussels.

· The Rebuild Ukraine conference will be held in Warsaw through Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France Unemployment Rate Q3

· Romania Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production Final (September)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Belarus Inflation Rate (October)

· Poland Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The breakaway region of Somaliland will hold a presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Global

· The International Energy Agency Monthly Market Report is released.

· The G20 Social Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and runs through November 16.

· The IMF’s 25th Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference begins in Washington, D.C., and runs through November 15.

· The UN Security Council votes on the renewal of the UN mission in Abiye, a disputed region between Sudan and South Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden begins a six-day state visit to Peru and Brazil and also attends the APEC Summit being hosted by Peru this year. Chinese President Xi will also attend the summit. Additionally, Biden will visit the Amazon rainforest to stress the importance of dealing with climate change.

· The CPAC Conference begins in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Argentine President Javier Milei is expected to attend also meet with President-elect Trump.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a speech at the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Global Perspectives Conference.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on central bank independence and the economic outlook at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting, Departamento de Montevideo, Uruguay.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give keynote before the “Intermediating Impact: Making Missing Markets" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

· USA PPI (October) / Initial Jobless Claims (November/09)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/13/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/13)

· Colombia Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (October)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Sri Lanka holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (October)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a panel debate about the state of the economy at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sidney.

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Full Time & Part Time Employment Chg (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/09)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/09)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (October)/ WPI Food Index (October)

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks alongside UK chancellor Rachel Reeves at the annual financial and professional services dinner at the City of London’s Mansion House.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine Mann will give a speech entitled “Revitalizing the Global Economy” at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 31 Encuentro del Sector Financiero organized by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a policy panel entitled "Reassessing Policy Tools for Current and Future Challenges" at 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "Rethinking the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global Economy" in Washington, D.C.,

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (October)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Hungary Construction Output (September)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Spain Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ Employment Change Prel Q3/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Flash Q3/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Household Consumption (September)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/08)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (September)/ Mining Production (September)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Friday, November 15, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (September)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (November)/ Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Business Inventories (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/15)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (September)

· Peru Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Peru.

· Nikkei and the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) host the 21st CSIS/Nikkei Symposium in Tokyo under the title of "Shaping the Future: New Leadership in Japan, U.S. and Next Indo-Pacific Order." The Mount Fuji Dialogue, a gathering that unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, is scheduled to start on Saturday in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)/

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q3/ GDP Price Index Prel Q3/ GDP Private Consumption Prel Q3/ Industrial Production Final (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (September)

· China House Price Index (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ NBS Press Conference

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Malaysia Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q3

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final Q3

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP (October)

· India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth (November/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s 2025 budget is presented to the Bundestag.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Budget) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the EU’s 2025 annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the high-level European Supervisory Authorities’ conference entitled "Financial services and Gender – Data, trends and progress in the EU and beyond" organized by EBA, ESMA and EIOPA in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane moderates a policy panel at a seminar entitled “A Fragmenting Trading System: where we stand and implications for policy" as part of the G7 Finance Track events organized by Banca d'Italia in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion on productivity at the CER Ditchley Park conference "A European path to higher economic growth" in Chipping Norton, UK.

· UK GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ GDP (September)/ Goods Trade Balance (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Business Investment Prel Q3/ Construction Output (September)/ GDP (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (October)/ Labour Productivity Final Q2

· Germany Wholesale Prices (October)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

· France Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Poland Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (September)

· Serbia Building Permits (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola M3 Money Supply (October)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q3

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will attend the G20 Summit -which begins on Monday – and will meet with Brazilian President Lula in Rio de Janeiro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an on-stage conversation at Trilateral Commission meeting in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability, in London.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds a national referendum on a new constitution and could lead to the end of military rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Global

· The G20 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegal holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/10/24 Francis Kelly 11/10/24

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Elections Bring a Shock Wave to the Washington Regulatory Outlook, New Leaders on Key Congressional Committees, and Who Will President-Elect Trump Pick as His Regulators?

November 11 - 15, 2024

What a week it was. Everyone expected it to be a close presidential race, but it was not, as President-elect Trump ended up sweeping all seven of the swing states and winning 329 electoral votes. Republicans also saw a bigger pick-up of seats in the Senate and, as of this writing, appear on track to retain control of the House of Representatives by the slimmest of margins.

With these election results comes a vastly different scenario for financial regulation in 2025 – 2026. We expect all the major regulatory chiefs – SEC, CFTC, OCC, FDIC, etc. – to step down as President-elect Trump moves quickly to nominate and get the Republican-controlled Senate to confirm his nominees quickly. Gone will be much of the SEC’s efforts on climate-related regulation, and almost certainly, the Federal Reserve Board-led effort to implement Basel III rules will at least be put on ice if not outright disregarded.

The elections also bring significant change to three of the four major regulatory oversight committees. We will see a new chair of the Senate Banking Committee following the defeat of current chair, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) – the new chair most likely Senator Tim Scott (R-SC). But we will also see arch-activist Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) move up to become the Ranking Democrat on the Banking Committee.

Also, in the Senate, we expect Senator John Boozman (R-AK) to become the new chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee and oversee the CFTC.

In the House of Representatives, there will be a new chair of the House Financial Services Committee—either Representative French Hill (R-AK) or Andy Barr (R-KY).

But the big question now is who President-elect Trump will pick as his new regulatory head? No one knows yet, but we expect Trump to move quickly to nominate his cabinet, subcabinet, and key regulatory heads. We will be offering special reports on those nominations as they are announced.

Meanwhile, below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week. There is nothing major going on other than Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell speaking at the Dallas Fed on Thursday and SEC Chair Gensler gives two speeches. We predict that most of the regulatory agencies are assessing what – if anything – they can accomplish between now and the January 20 inauguration. Some may try to push through some last-minute regulatory priorities. Still, our guess is most of the agencies will stand down and prepare to hand over control to whomever the President-elect nominates as the respective new regulatory head.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate returns to work this week. Republican senators will choose a new Majority Leader as Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has announced his intention to step back from the role. Currently, the race is between Senator John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX).

· Thursday, November 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the Nominations of Deva A. Kyle to be director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation and David Samuel Johnson to be inspector general for tax administration in the Treasury Department.

House of Representatives

· The House returns to work this week. House Republicans will vote on their leadership – and whether to keep current Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) as many outstanding House elections are yet to be called and control of the House majority remains uncertain.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, November 12, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller

Gives a speech at The Clearing House Annual Conference, New York, New York

· Thursday, November 14, 7:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting, Departamento de Montevideo, Uruguay.

· Thursday, November 14, 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· Wednesday, November 13, 10:30 a.m. – The Small Business Administration holds a virtual meeting of the SBA Investment Capital Advisory Committee to discuss institutional investment market trends, innovation, and policy impacting small businesses and their ability to access patient capital.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, November 12, 8:00 a.m. – Yahoo holds its 2024 Finance Invest Conference, beginning at 8 a.m. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler delivers remarks on "Investing in Regulatory Frameworks."

· Wednesday, November 13 – 9:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting.

· Thursday, November 14 — The Practicing Law Institute (PLI) 56th Annual Institute on Securities Regulation will hold its conference in New York. SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give remarks.

· Thursday, November 14, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, November 13, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion. The agenda includes Updates from committee members about key challenges facing their communities or organizations; Presentations and panel discussions on qualitative research regarding consumer perceptions of banks and non-bank financial services firms; FDIC's proposed rulemaking on recordkeeping for custodial deposit accounts with transactional features; and Review of results from the 2023 FDIC National Survey of the Unbanked and Underbanked Households

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Tuesday, November 12, 2:00 p.m. – The FTC holds a conference on Identity Theft and College Students.

· Thursday & Friday November 14 & 15 – The FTC holds its 17th Annual Microeconomics Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, November 14, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC holds an Open Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, November 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a meeting for a report on access to capital in Indian country.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, November 12 – The Investment Company Institute holds its annual Closed-End Fund conference in New York.

· Tuesday – Friday, November 12-15 – The American Bankers Association hods its annual Agricultural Bankers Conference in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Nothing of significance is scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/8/24 Francis Kelly 11/8/24

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Elections Are Finally Here, Iran Prepares for Another Strike on Israel, South Korea Confers with EU Leaders over North Korean Troops in Ukraine, and Is the Fed Ready for More Rate Cuts?

November 3 - 10, 2024

It seems like it has taken forever, but the U.S. elections are finally here on Tuesday. It is rather extraordinary when you think of all that is being voted on: A new President, 435 members of the House of Representatives, 33 members of the U.S. Senate, 11 governors, ten state attorney generals, 86 state legislatures in 44 states, and 8 U.S. territories, 22 major city mayors, and countless state and local judges will be elected. And a myriad of state ballot measures covering everything from abortion to taxes to water rights to education reform.

We have spent endless hours analyzing potential market outcomes and implications these past few months. While we believe there is a slight chance the U.S. House of Representatives flips to Democratic control by a slim margin and the U.S. Senate flips to Republican control by a slim margin, we just cannot project two days out who will win the presidency. It all comes down to who will win Pennsylvania and every poll, every data point, every anecdotal story we have heard points to the tightest of margins between former President Trump and Vice President Harris.

The question we get asked most often is: What are we going to be looking at on election night? Our recommendation is to watch Florida first. Trump is almost certain to win the Sunshine State – but by how much? By what margin? If it is a large margin, it is a possible indicator that Trump is having a big night. It may be a good night for Harris if it is not a significant margin. We will also be watching North Carolina – does Trump win, or does Harris surprise with a win? Again, the Tar Heel State will be a good early indicator. Unfortunately, our prediction is Pennsylvania will be close, complicated, and slow to reveal the victor. And if the race is as close as it appears to be now in the Keystone State, markets had better brace for a couple of days of uncertainty.

While virtually the entire world will be glued to televisions and computer screens watching the returns' role in, there are several other major geopolitical events we are watching closely this week. First, despite early indications Iran was not going to strike back at Israel for Israel's recent retaliatory strike on Iran, it now appears sentiment among Iran's leaders has shifted considerably. Two senior Iranian military leaders in the last week have publicly promised to strike back at Israel is a serious and rising risk. The change in stance appears to come as a result of Iran coming to grips with just how damaging Israel's October 25th strike actually was: crippling Iranian air defenses and destroying or crippling major drone production facilities as well as sensitive rocket fuel mixing facilities.

Also this week, South Korean leaders will be meeting with European Union leaders to discuss the recent deployment of approximately 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia, moving to the frontlines to battle Ukrainian forces. We see this as a significant game-changer in the Ukraine War, and South Korea clearly does too. As the South Korean Foreign Minister said Friday, "all possible scenarios are under consideration" which means Seoul is likely to being sending weapons to Ukraine and possibly sending military advisors and observers to Ukraine. It could also prompt NATO to reverse the current stance of not allowing NATO weapons supplied to Ukrainian forces to be used against Russian troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has said would cross "a red line."

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, the big events are all at the central banks. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and Thursday. Markets have factored in a likely 25 basis point cut, but with last week's feeble jobs report, some wonder if the cut will be more.

The Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sweden's Riksbank, Norway's Norges Bank, and the Central Bank of Brazil will also meet this week to discuss interest rates.

Looking at economic data releases this week, in Europe, markets are watching Germany's trade balance, factory orders, and industrial production numbers. France also releases industrial production and trade numbers.

In Asia, the Chinese Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will meet, and markets are watching for any new stimulus measures to stabilize the economy. China will also release trade balance figures. Meanwhile, Japan releases wage figures while the Bank of Japan releases minutes from its September meeting.

And bringing back to the U.S., the ISM services report, productivity and unit labor costs, and the University of Michigan consumer survey are all out this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

· G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Delegations from the Colombian government and ELN guerrillas meet for peace talks in Caracas, Venezuela.

· Today is Dominica Independence Day, celebrating when the country was granted independence from the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8. They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues. They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Moldova holds the second round of its presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Turkish-African Summit is held in Djibouti. Turkey has invested heavily across Africa in recent years, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan carrying out 50 visits to 31 countries during his two decades in power.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 4, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Non-proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

· The UAE hosts energy industry executives at the annual ADIPEC Conference. (Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference). This is the largest energy conference with more than 2,200 exhibiting companies and more than 17,000 participants expected to attend.

· The 7th OECD World Forum on Well-Being is held in Paris.

· Interpol convenes its 92nd General Assembly in Glasgow, Scotland through November 7.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

· Boeing workers vote on improved contract offer to end strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (August)

· USA Factory Orders (September)/ Total Vehicle Sales (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visits Beijing for a four-day visit. This is his third trip to China since taking office two years ago.

· Indonesia and Russia will hold their first joint naval drills in Surabaya, on the northeastern coast of Java island, from Monday to Friday. Southeast Asia's largest economy has adopted a neutral foreign policy, avoiding taking sides over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while also trying to sidestep the U.S.-China rivalry. But Indonesia's new President Prabowo Subianto is looking to boost ties with Russia, after meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow this summer.

· The 11th summit of the heads of state of the Organization of Turkic States begins in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (October)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the competitiveness of the European economy, with a view to agreeing and adopting a formal statement. Ministers will continue to follow up on the implementation of the statement of the Eurogroup in inclusive format on the future of capital markets union, in line with the high-level roadmap endorsed in May. They will also discuss how best to regularly take stock of the performance of European capital markets and monitor progress on EU and national measures.

· South Korean and EU officials are to hold their first strategic dialogue in Seoul to discuss Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops. The meeting may give an indication of whether South Korea will send military observers and possibly advisors to Ukraine and/or ramp up military aid to Ukraine.

· Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, press conference follows in Berlin. Rutte will also meet with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius, Minister of Finance Christian Lindner, and other senior officials.

· Today is Russia’s Day of Unity, celebrating when in 1612 a popular uprising against Polish forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at a high-level conference "10 years of SSM: Looking back and looking forward" organized by European Banking Institute in collaboration with Hessisches Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will also participate on a panel entitled "Competitiveness of European Banks.”

· Romania PPI (September)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Auto Production & Sales (October)

· France Budget Balance (September)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ New Car Registrations (October)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ New Car Registrations (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Energy Expo 2024 begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· It is election day in the United States.

· The former U.S. Navy contractor, Leonard Glenn Francis – better known as “Fat Leonard” – will be sentenced following his 2023 extradition from Venezuela in a federal court in San Diego.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Redbook (November/02)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ ISM Services PMI (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (October)

· Colombia PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The annual China International Import Expo kicks off in host city Shanghai, attracting exporters from more than 70 countries. China aims to boost trade through the six-day expo as sluggish domestic demand weighs.

· Palau will hold a presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Tokyo Stock Exchange extends its closing time by 30 minutes to 3:30 p.m., in a move to "further improve convenience for market users, international competitiveness, and resilience," it said. Trading will still start at 9:00 a.m.

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (October)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (October)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Thailand Inflation Rate (October)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (October)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss The Council will seek a political agreement on a package of legislation on value added tax (VAT) in the digital age. The package consists of three proposals that set out to tackle VAT fraud, support businesses and promote digitalization. They will also take stock of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).The Council is expected to adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans, submitted by some member states.

· President Emmanuel Macron hosts Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for a state visit.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Rome.

· German. Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, press conference follows.

· The French Parliament continues debates over the government's 2025 budget proposal.

· The Berlin Peace Dialogue 2024 begins in Berlin, Germany.

· Today is Guy Fawkes Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the French Competition Authority’s 15th Anniversary Event in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy at Harvard University’s Department of Economics in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (October)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (October)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (September)

· France Industrial Production (September)

· Spain Unemployment Change (October)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (October)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (October)

· Serbia PPI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatar holds a constitutional referendum including a proposal to change strengthening the role of the emir and abolishment of the elections to the Consultative Assembly with its members being appointed instead.

· The IMF will begin reviewing Egypt’s loan program.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (October)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (October)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (October)

· Jordan PPI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (October)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (October)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (October)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (October)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Global

· The inaugural ministerial meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s IAEA World Fusion Energy Group takes place in Rome.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (October)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (October)/ Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations/Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks at the Economic Club of Canada.

· Colombia Exports (September)

· USA EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/01)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the keynote speaker at the opening of the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea. The forum focuses on issues surrounding the geopolitical flashpoint, with China and the Philippines locked in an increasingly tense row over the disputed waterway.

· The Singapore FinTech Festival begins. Industry leaders, investors and policy makers will gather in Singapore for one of the world's largest financial technology exhibitions. Organized annually by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the three-day event will discuss and showcase the latest advancements in the sector including digital banking, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology and sustainable finance.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3/ Labour Costs Index Q3/ Participation Rate Q3

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (October)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (October)/ RBA Chart Pack

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (October)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (October)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (October)

· China Standing Committee National People's Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Michel Barnier in Brussels.

· Facing low approval polls (14 percent), Germany’s Coalition Committee of the governmental parties meets in Berlin, discussing the future of the coalition – meaning, new parliamentary elections could be called.

· Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Kazakhstan for meetings.

· Russia’s Upper house of parliament votes to ratify Defence treaty with North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the 10th anniversary of the Single Supervisory Mechanism in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Member Claudia Buch will also speak.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos speaks at a lunch and takes Q&A session at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar organized by European Economics and Financial Centre in London.

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Germany Factory Orders (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ PPI (September)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (October)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (October)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Angolan President Joao Lourenco will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

· South Africa will host the Critical Minerals Africa Summit in Cape Town through November 7.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, November 7, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 9th Ministerial Conference on the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean Will Be Held in Santiago, Chile.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference afterwards.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (October)

· Brazil Car Production (October)/ New Car Registrations (October)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (November/02)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/26)/ Wholesale Inventories (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/01)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/06)/ Used Car Prices (October)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (October)

· Argentina Industrial Production (September)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 7th China International Import Expo begins in Shanghai. Chinese Premiere Li Qiang will give an opening speech. According to Chinese press reports, leaders from other countries, including Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Mongolian Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene, and Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević will attend the opening ceremony.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (September)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (September)/ Overtime Pay (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/02)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/02)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Building Permits Final (September)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (September)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Moscow. The title of his speech is reported to be “titled "Security for Each and Everyone. Together Into a New World."

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel entitled "Stepping up: a new era for international climate leadership" at Friends of Europe’s flagship Festival of politics and Ideas "Voices, choices and leadership: a tipping point for Europe?" in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at a conference entitled "Public Debt: Past Lessons, Future Challenges" organized by Bank of Greece in Athens, Greece.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at DNB Banking Seminar (virtual).

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

· Romania Retail Sales (September)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (October)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (October)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE Monetary Policy Report/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ BoE MPC Vote Hike/ BoE MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

· Hungary Retail Sales (September)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (September)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (October)

· Spain Industrial Production (September)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Greece Balance of Trade (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/01)/ Treasury Cash Balance (October)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Friday, November 8, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman speaks on banking issues at

the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium, Oxford, Mississippi.

· Chile Inflation Rate (October)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (October)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Participation Rate (October)/ Average Hourly Wages (October)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change(October)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (October)

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (November)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (November)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (November)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/08)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (November)/ Household Spending (September)/ Coincident Index Prel (September)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (September)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q4

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Motorbike Sales (October)/ Car Sales (October)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· China Current Account Prel Q3

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/01)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of state in Budapest, Hungary hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Hungary is Chairing the European Council until the end of December.

· Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis hosts Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Athens.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at 11th anniversary of McKinsey’s and Quantum Black’s flagship EMEA Data & AI Summit in Versailles, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone moderates a panel at a high-level event on Italy and the World Bank Group: "Partnering for Africa's prosperity" co-organized by the World Bank Group, Banca d'Italia, and the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance in Rome, Italy.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will give a monetary policy report national agency briefing in London.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (October)

· Netherlands Manufacturing Production (September)

· Turkey Inflation Report

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (October)

· Italy Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Greece Inflation Rate (October)

· Ireland Industrial Production (September)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Vehicle Sales (October)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (October)

· Hungary Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Foreign Ministers of the Russia-Africa partnership forum meet in Sochi, Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 35th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a the closing event "Climate risks, adaptation and mitigation: what do central banks make of their economic effects?" at Green Swan Conference 2024 "Impact of climate change on the real economy: what does it mean for business and for monetary policy?" co-organized by Bank for International Settlements, Bank of Japan, Bank of Spain and Network for Greening the Financial System in Basel, Switzerland.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar will travel to Russia through November 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Primer Grito de Independencia Day in Panama, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit 2024 begins in Lima, Peru and runs through November 16.

· Mauritius holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Cambodia Independence Day, celebrating when in 1945 Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk proclaimed the country an independent kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Remembrance Day, marking the anniversary of the end of World War I in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/1/24 Francis Kelly 11/1/24

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

AT LAST, THE ELECTIONS ARE FINALLY HERE! And Not A Whole Lot Is Going On in the Regulatory World This Week…

November 3 - 8, 2024

The elections are finally here this week. Washington is bracing for what Tuesday brings, especially the regulatory world because change is coming to the regulatory agenda in 2025 and beyond.

The only major event this week is the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC), meets Wednesday and Thursday to discuss the economy and interest rates. And on Friday, Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation on banking topics at the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium. The Securities Enforcement Forum is being held on Wednesday, bringing together current and former senior SEC officials – mostly enforcement staff – with white-collar attorneys, in-house counsels, and compliance executives. And that is about it for the regulatory calendar this coming week.

This past week saw a ramping up in the fight over the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) efforts to tighten its oversight of how giant asset managers invest in banks. House Republicans let it be known they are not happy with the FDIC’s effort, sending a letter to FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg objecting. The FDIC is requiring BlackRock and Vanguard to sign agreements this week meant to more aggressively monitor the asset managers’ promises to remain passive investors in banks in which they have big ownership stakes.

Also, this past week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at the American Bank Association’s annual meeting that Treasury believes fraud in the banking system is becoming a huge problem and that her department is now using artificial intelligence to detect and deal with the issue.

Also, anticipating the changes coming to Congress' composition and what they might mean for the regulatory world, Senator Tim Scott (R.-S.C.), the current ranking minority of the Senate Banking Committee, appears to have locked up enough support to become the next Chair of the Senate Banking Committee if control of the chamber flips.

Let’s see what happens on Tuesday. And don’t forget to vote! Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 6 & 7 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington to consider interest rates.

· Friday, November 8, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a conversation on banking topics at the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium, Oxford, Mississippi.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· Friday, November 8, 9:30 a.m. – The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis holds a virtual meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee to discuss proposed improvements, extensions, and research related to BEA's economic accounts and include an update on recent statistical developments.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, November 6 – Acting Director of Enforcement Sanjay Wadhwa and several other SEC enforcement officials will participate in Securities Enforcement Forum D.C. 2024.

· Thursday, November 7 – The SEC holds its Virtual National Compliance Outreach Seminar for Investment Companies and Investment Advisors. You can find the agenda HERE.

· Thursday, November 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Friday, November 8, 6:00 p.m. PT – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will receive the Daniel K. Inouye Trailblazer Award from the National Asian Pacific American Bar Association (NAPABA). The award is NAPABA’s lifetime achievement award and highest honor and recognizes the Trailblazer’s leadership, vision, courage, tenacity, and substantial contributions to the legal profession.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Thursday, November 7, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Community Banking chaired by FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg to discuss issues that are of interest to community banks. You can find the agenda HERE.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 6 & 7 – SIFMA holds its annual Market Structure Conference in New York.

· Thursday, November 7, 10:00 a.m. – The Futures Industry Association holds a virtual conference entitled Commodities Enforcement Trends and Developments.

· Friday, November 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a Cyber Security Roundtable entitled “Resilience in the Face of Digital Fraud and Cyber Threats” in Brussels, Belgium.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/1/24 Francis Kelly 11/1/24

Puppies!

Our beautiful Quinn just had five beautiful puppies!

My wonderful wife brings a lot of joy into our house with her breeding business. Our wonderful, sweet Quinn just had five beautiful, healthy puppies - all pure-bred German Shepherds. If you are interested in buying one, reach out to Maura at Open Door Farm. In the meantime, I’m loving having these little ones squeaking away in our bathroom and growing so fast!

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in Brazil, The IAEA Board of Governors Meet to Discuss Iran’s Nuclear Program, the 1000-Day Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, and President-elect Trump Continues to Name His Cabinet

November 17 - 24, 2024

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Monday, November 18, 2024

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Friday, November 22, 2024

Saturday, November 23, 2024

Sunday, November 24, 2024

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

Is SEC Chair Gensler Stepping Down Next Week? The Senate Judiciary Committee Finally Holds a Hearing on Visa/Mastercard, and the House Financial Services Committee Hauls Up All the Prudential Regulators for One Last Hearing

November 18 - 22, 2024

Recommended Weekend Reads

Latin America Holds the Key to Critical Mineral Needs, What Does Secretary of State-Designate Marco Rubio Have to Say About Latin America? And Just How Successful Has China’s Belt & Road Been?

November 15 - 17, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

November 13 - 17, 2024

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Elections Bring a Shock Wave to the Washington Regulatory Outlook, New Leaders on Key Congressional Committees, and Who Will President-Elect Trump Pick as His Regulators?

November 11 - 15, 2024

Recommended Weekend Reads

The 2nd Trump Presidency, Ukraine: What Happens Now?, And China’s Axis of Losers

November 8 - 10, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Elections Are Finally Here, Iran Prepares for Another Strike on Israel, South Korea Confers with EU Leaders over North Korean Troops in Ukraine, and Is the Fed Ready for More Rate Cuts?

November 3 - 10, 2024

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

AT LAST, THE ELECTIONS ARE FINALLY HERE! And Not A Whole Lot Is Going On in the Regulatory World This Week…

November 3 - 8, 2024

Recommended Weekend Reads

Entering the Age of Global Depopulation, The Surprising Resilience of Globalization, and How Brazil Could Become the Global Engine for Global Clean Energy Revolution

November 1 - 3, 2024

Puppies!

Our beautiful Quinn just had five beautiful puppies!

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