Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 10/27/24 Francis Kelly 10/27/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Regulators Get Very Quiet A Week Before the Elections and the Next FMOC Meetings; SEC Chair Gensler Heads to Vegas to Talk About the Global Money Ecosystem

October 28 - November 1, 2024

It will be a mostly quiet week in Washington’s regulatory world. Elections have that effect on Washington as members of Congress are all off either campaigning for re-election or campaigning for colleagues. Congressional staff are mostly working from home or on shortened schedules.

The biggest election from the financial regulatory perspective is Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown's (D-OH) tense reelection battle against Republican Bernie Moreno. The latest polls suggest the race is a statistical tie, as Moreno has gained significant ground on Brown in the last two weeks.

The regulatory agencies are, of course, at work but not much is scheduled publicly. Aside from a fireside chat SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in at the Money 20/20 Conference on tech, finance, and the global money ecosystem and a CFTC Open meeting, there is not much going on.

Perhaps the biggest event of the week will be the American Bankers Association’s (ABA) Annual Convention being held in New York. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the keynote speaker, and she is expected to offer her thoughts on the state of the US economy and the current state of play of bank regulation.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· The Federal Reserve Board member have no public speaking events scheduled as they are in the “Quiet Period” in advance of the November 7 Federal Open Markets Committee Meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, October 28, 11:15 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen drops by a meeting of the U.S. China Financial Working Group and the Economic Working Group.

· Tuesday, October 29, 9:00 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a meeting of the Debt Management Advisory Committee. The agenda includes: Discussion on the economy; Discussion on financial markets; Discussion on treasury financing; Discussion on debt management; and Written report of its recommendations.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, October 28, 2:40 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the Money 20/20 Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada.

· Tuesday, October 29, 2:30 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat with Erica Williams, Chair of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), as part of the PCAOB’s International Institute on Audit Regulation. A livestream of the chat will be available.

· Thursday, October 31, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, October 29, 10:00 am. – 4:30 p.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting. The Commission will consider: Final Rule – Operational Resilience Framework for Futures Commission Merchants, Swap Dealers, and Major Swap Participants, a Final Rule regarding Investment of Customer Funds by Futures Commission Merchants and Derivatives Clearing Organizations, a Final Rule on Derivatives Clearing Organizations Recovery and Orderly Wind-down Plans; Information for Resolution Planning, the Commission Fall 2024 Unified Agenda Submission, and the CFTC Executive and Supervisor Compensation Structures.

· Thursday, October 30, 9:20 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will deliver a keynote address at the ISDA Annual Legal Forum in New York.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· October 30 – 31 – FINRA hosts the Diversity Leadership Summit (virtually).

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, October 28 - 29 – The American Bankers Association holds its 2024 Annual Convention. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will give a keynote speech.

· Tuesday & Wednesday, October 29 -30 – SIFMA holds its National Conference on the Securities Industry in New York.

· Wednesday, October 30 – ISDA holds its Annual Legal Forum in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Friday, October 31, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Basel III implementation status and prospects," referring to a framework that sets international standards for bank capital adequacy, stress testing and liquidity requirements.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/27/24 Francis Kelly 10/27/24

The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point. Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers. But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency. Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans. But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved). Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region. But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon. Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates. We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday. This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday.

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday. But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures. Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday. In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7. Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

· European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

· Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house. The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

· Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

· Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

· Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.

· The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

· The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

· The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

· The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

· The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

· Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

· Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Colombia Business Confidence (September)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

· The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president. Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana.

· ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Malaysia PPI (September)

· Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China. Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces. They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

· The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

· The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31. The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.” There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands. Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

· The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

· Spain Retail Sales (September)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31. The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· Canada BoC Macklem Speech

· Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

· USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

· A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

· G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal. he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024. During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

· USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

· Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

· Philippines PPI (September)

· Singapore Bank Lending (September)

· Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Singapore Business Confidence Q3

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV). Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

· The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

· France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

· Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

· Greece PPI (September)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

· Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Botswana holds general elections. President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

· Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

· Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

· Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

· Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

· India Government Budget Value (September)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad. The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries. The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

· The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

· The UK Conservative Party elections will end. The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

· Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

· France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (October)

· Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

· The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

· The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

· Peru Inflation Rate (October)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (September)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Spain New Car Sales (October)

· Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· One of our favorite days of the year! The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 2nd round of presidential elections takes place in Moldova.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8. They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues. They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/25/24 Francis Kelly 10/25/24

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

It’s World Bank/IMF Week in Washington, There Are Not One But Two Big Fintech Conferences This Week, And Pressure on FDIC Chair Gruenberg To Explain Himself Grows

October 21 - 25, 2024

Washington will be a very busy place this week as finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge for the annual World Bank/IMF meetings. While burgeoning global debt will be a major focus of the meetings, issues surrounding the stability of the financial markets will be a central theme (We would note it will also be a significant theme of the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Russia this week, as Russian President Vladimir Putin and other BRICS leaders seek to build an alternative financial system).

Also, this week, not one but two big Fintech Conferences will be held, one in Washington and one in Philadelphia. The one in Washington – the Georgetown University Law Center's Institute of International Economic Law holds its eighth annual Fintech Week Conference – will see speeches by a number of regulators, including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam, and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra.

Also this week, Bloomberg is holding its Global Regulatory Forum in New York, where SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak. He will also speak at SIFMA’s Annual Meeting in New York.

Quickly looking at what happened last week, we would note that while Congress remains out of session until after the November elections, there still was some notable action. House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry on Wednesday slammed FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg for “continued obstruction” of the panel’s investigation into the agency's workplace culture, calling on the bank regulator to schedule a transcribed interview by the end of the day. Gruenberg continues to refuse to cooperate or explain himself.

McHenry – who is retiring from Congress at the end of this session – also sent a letter to the General Accountability Office (GAO) asking for an investigation into the Treasury Department's management of small business ownership data, which it collects under a law intended to fight money laundering.

Also of note, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes a bipartisan stablecoin bill currently being negotiated in the House “comes close” to the administration’s goals for regulating digital assets. While we believe there is virtually no chance of the bill being passed by the end of this year, we believe it will be revived early in the new Congress next year.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in a Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday & Wednesday, October 22 – 23 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will hold its 8th Annual Fintech Conference in Philadelphia. Among the speakers will be Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker, and a large number of industry leaders.

· Wednesday, October 23, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, October 21, 10:25 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will deliver remarks and participate in a one-on-one conversation with SIFMA President and CEO Kenneth Bentsen at the SIFMA Annual Meeting in New York.

· Tuesday, October 22, 11:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will speak at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York. A livestream of his remarks will be available. See the conference agenda here.

· Thursday, October 24, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, October 21, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at SIFMA’s Annual Meeting in New York.

· Tuesday, October 22, 2:05 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will give a keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

· Wednesday, October 23, 9:05 a.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat with Congressman Ro Khanna at DC FinTech Week in Washington, D.C.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, October 22 – Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Vice Chair Travis Hill will speak at the DC Fintech Week Conference in Washington, D.C.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, October 22, 9:00 a.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu will discuss the future of banking with Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research at the Bank for International Settlements, during DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Wednesday, October 23 -- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra delivers remarks at the DC Fintech Week Conference in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, October 24, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA holds a Board Meeting. The agenda will cover an update on cybersecurity and a briefing on New Charter and Field of Memberships.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Friday, October 21 - 26 – The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group officially kick off their 2024 Fall Meeting.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday, October 21 – SIFMA holds its annual meeting in New York.

· Monday – Friday, October 22 – 25 – The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting takes place in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, October 22 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its annual 2024 Anti-Money Laundering Conference in New York.

· Thursday, October 24, 10:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a discussion on "Scaling Local Innovations for Achieving Housing Affordability."

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, October 21, 9:00 a.m. – 4:30 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a conference on "Geopolitics and International Trade and Finance: Knowns and Unknowns."

· Monday, October 21 - The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center holds a virtual forum, beginning at 1 p.m., on "Tax Policy, the 2024 Election, and a Look Ahead to 2025."

· Tuesday, October 22 – Day One of The Georgetown University Law Center's Institute of International Economic Law holds its eighth annual Fintech Week Conference begins. Among the speakers today will be Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, Representative French Hill, (R-Ark.), National Security Council Special Adviser for Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure Policy Carole House participates in a discussion on "The Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence," and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Vice Chair Travis Hill.

· Tuesday, October 22, 4:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Climate, development, and international financial institutions: Perspectives from the Global South.”

· Wednesday, October 23 – Day Two of The Georgetown University Law Center's Institute of International Economic Law Fintech Week Conference. Rep. Ro Khanna, (D-Calif.) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam deliver remarks. Also, New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra delivers remarks.

· Wednesday, October 23 – The Association of Certified Sanctions Specialists holds its sixth annual conference on "Global Sanctions and Export Controls” in Washington, D.C. Among the speakers will be Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary for export enforcement at the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security, Scott Anderson, national coordinator for the Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security's Disruptive Technology Strike Force, and Molly Braese, chief of staff to the assistant Commerce secretary for export enforcement at the Bureau of Industry and Security.

· Wednesday, October 23, 9:00 a.m. – The Center for Global Development holds a discussion on "Bretton Woods at 80: Priorities for the Next Decade."

· Wednesday, October 24, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 9 a.m., on "Geneva Report Launch: Much Money, Little Capital, and Few Reforms: The 2023 Banking Turmoil."

· Wednesday, October 24, 11:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 11 a.m., on "Monetary Policy Transmission Across the Euro Area."

· Wednesday, October 24, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Monetary Policy During Periods of Economic Volatility." Adrian Orr, Governor of the Bank of New Zealand, will speak,.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/20/24 Francis Kelly 10/20/24

The Global Week Ahead

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

This will be an extremely busy and particularly important week, both geopolitically and for global markets. The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings are being held in Washington, D.C. this week. As finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge on Washington to discuss global economic issues, managing growing global debt, which, as the IMF reported this past week, is approaching $100 trillion globally – 93 percent of the global GDP – and is on track to surpass 100 percent of global GDP by 2030). On the sidelines of the meetings, G20 Finance Ministers will also meet in Washington under the chairmanship of Brazil, who is strongly advocating the voice of the “Global South” as a growing economic power.

However, as the World Bank/IMF meetings occur, leaders of the BRICS nations will gather in Russia to meet under the chair of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting – seen by Moscow as something of a victory over Western sanctions and pressure to end its war on Ukraine – will see the presidents or prime ministers of China, India, Turkey, the UAE, Brazil, Iran, Egypt, and more than 24 other countries discussing issues including how to end the dominance of the US dollar and building an alternative financial system. Most observers are not expecting any significant breakthroughs. But it is also likely the BRICS will approve the invitation to up to two dozen new member countries.

Also this week, several important elections are being held in countries Russia is battling to influence and draw into its orbit: Moldova, Bulgaria, and Georgia. Russian efforts have become so brazen—especially in Moldova—that they are offering bribes to vote against the pro-EU/pro-West governments.

We also continue to watch the evolving situation in the Middle East. Israel continues to prepare for a retaliatory military strike against Iran (which could come at any time) while continuing its efforts to destroy Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon. But the news that Hamas’ political leader, Yahha Sinwar, has been killed by Israeli Forces may prove to be an inflection point in the war in Gaza. At the time of this writing, there are reports trickling in of larger numbers of Hamas fighters surrendering to Israeli Forces.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond the World Bank/IMF meetings and BRICS meeting, markets are focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the durable goods orders report on Friday. Also, the Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday.

In Asia, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday and any new stimulus plans or details of already announced stimulus plans coming from Beijing. In Japan, the October CPI is out this Friday.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will be released on Friday, as will Germany’s Ifo survey and France’s, Italy’s, and the U.K.’s consumer confidence reports.

Below is what else we are closely watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

· The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, celebrating the overthrow of a dictatorship in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

· China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU – to the point where Russian operatives are openly offering bribes to Moldovans to vote against joining the EU. Pro-EU President Maya Sandu is likely to receive the most votes in the election, but a runoff is also likely.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Global

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be in Addis Ababa to take part in the 8th African Union – United Nations annual conference. The high-level discussions will be co-chaired by Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the Secretary-General. Later in the day, the Secretary-General will go to the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Addis Ababa, where he will take part in the re-inauguration ceremony of Africa Hall, which is reopening after extensive renovations to transform it into a modern conference center.

· The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Cali, Colombia through November 1.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Anticipating the impact of scientific developments on international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is likely to visit Israel for talks regarding the situation in Gaza and pursue new cease-fire negotiations in the wake of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas City.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak and participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2024 SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) Annual Meeting in New York.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Chippewa Falls Chamber of Commerce town hall.

· USA CB Leading Index (September)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Hauser Speech

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Taiwan Export Orders (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore’s International Energy Week begins and runs through October 26. Speakers include industry executives and energy ministers from Tanzania, Cambodia, Laos, Australia and New Zealand, discussing energy security and transition plans.

The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg through October 22. The ministers will discuss reaching a political agreement on next year’s fishing opportunities in the Baltic Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (September)

· Greece Current Account (August)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

· Slovenia PPI (September)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (September)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (September)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

· Jordan Industrial Production (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique’s opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, who early vote counts placed second in the country’s October 9 presidential election, called for a countrywide strike today to protest preliminary results he’s already rejected. He urged supporters to “paralyze” the country, according to a video posted to his social media channels including YouTube on Wednesday. Mondlane has repeatedly said he was winning.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Global

· The 16th BRICS Summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and runs through October 24. This is the first time the BRICS has met since expanding the membership to include Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ethiopia. In total, leaders from 32 countries are expected to attend. Among the agenda items will be efforts to move away from the dominance of the US dollar further, create an alternative financial infrastructure, and plan for future expansion.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting with ICJ briefing. In the afternoon, a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) is scheduled to be held, followed by consultations.

· G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada's 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech" before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Mexico Economic Activity (August)

· Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)

· USA Redbook (October/19)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/18)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (September)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament will debate and vote on a €35 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine as part of the G7’s support initiative. The package leverages extraordinary profits from frozen Russian assets and aims to address Ukraine’s urgent financing needs in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meetings with the presidents and prime ministers of Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding further integration with the European Union, including stronger trade ties.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Estonia for meetings with Estonian President Alar Karis and Prime Minister Kristen Michal. The next day, he will meet with Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna and then visit the Tapa Army Base, where he will address the troops together with the President of Estonia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion about "The future of cross-border payments: faster safer together – safe and inclusive fast payments across borders" during the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. Lagarde will also be interviewed by Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua at the IMF.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the annual SCION Day 2024 organized by ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) in Zürich, Switzerland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a speech at the Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York. He then will give a speech at Colombia University.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg's Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

· European Union New Car Registrations (September)

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

· Hungary Gross Wage (August)

· Poland Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)/ Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Global

· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Washington, D.C. on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

· G20 Trade and Investment Ministers will meet in Brasilia, Brazil through October 25.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to give opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on "Recognizing the Impact of Community Colleges" before the 2024 Virginia Education and Workforce Conference.

· USA MBA Purchase Index (October/18)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/18)/ Fed Beige Book

· Mexico Retail Sales (August)

· Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision/ BoC Monetary Policy Report/ BoC Press Conference to follow.

· Argentina Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at an "Atlantic Council Front Page" event in Washington, D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel "CBDC, cross border payments and the future of money in a deglobalized world" at 'Bretton woods in a new world' conference organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in conversation session at 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Thriving in turbulence: Sustaining growth in a new economic landscape" in Washington, D.C,

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (September)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

· Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit Growth (September)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

· G20 Anti-Corruption Ministers will meet in Natal, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Montserrat holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to give welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024" event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank.

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (October)/ Federal Tax Revenues (September)

· Chile PPI (September)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/19)/ / S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ New Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/18)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (October)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Building Permits Final (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/23)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

· Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/19)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Singapore URA Property Index Final Q3

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Philippines Budget Balance (September)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Denmark hosts North Sea Cooperation ministers meeting in The Cooperative consists of Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg and the European Commission. Great Britain participates as an observer.

· The European Court of Justice will rule on Intel's fight against a once-record €1.06 billion EU antitrust fine for rebates to laptop makers.

· The EU’s Conference of Presidents (EP President Metsola and political group leaders) will decide on the winner of the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The three shortlisted candidates are (in alphabetical order): Dr Gubad Ibadoghlu, academic and anti-corruption activist in Azerbaijan; María Corina Machado, as leader of the democratic forces in Venezuela and President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia; and "Women Wage Peace" and "Women of the Sun", Israel/Palestine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be a panelist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar hosted by the Inter-American Bank in Washington, D.C. Later, Bailey will give the Mike Gill Memorial Lecture at the CFTC in Washington.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in panel discussion at the 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at a conference entitled "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics" organized by ECB and FED Cleveland Fed in Cleveland, Ohio.

· France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/18)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Semafor holds its World Economy Summit in Washington through October 25. Among the speakers will be Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s Special Advisor on Energy Security and other senior Administration officials.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/25)

· Paraguay PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Japan Tokyo CPI (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October 18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit India through October 27. Accompanying Scholz will be a large number of German CEOs seeking new investment opportunities with India. The German government recently released a white paper entitled “Focus on India” which seeks to lay the groundwork for a stronger partnership with India. Additionally, discussions between Scholz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will focus on greater defense cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a re-recorded speech at a conference entitled "EU Banking Regulation at a Turning Point" organized by Universitá degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ CBI Distributive Trades (October)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

· France Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

· Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

· Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

· Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Greece Total Credit (September)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia will hold parliamentary elections. Much like the elections earlier in the week in Moldova, significant Russian efforts to interfere and influence in the elections are expected. The elections are expected to be decisive in determining if Georgia moves toward possible EU integration or rejects integration for a tighter alliance with Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream Party has accused Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the opposition and Western allies argue that the government is undermining democratic principles. If Georgian Dream wins, it has vowed to ban the main opposition parties, leading to fears of democratic backsliding, while a victory for the opposition could restore Georgia’s pro-Western course.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

· Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

· Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/18/24 Francis Kelly 10/18/24

The Global Week Ahead

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

With less than a month until the US elections, the world tensely awaits Israel's promised military response to Iran's recent missile attack as Israeli military forces continue to intensify their attacks on Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon. It remains unclear if Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil production and shipping facilities or, military sites, or critical infrastructure facilities – or some variation of all of these.

The situation in the Middle East and Ukraine will be the focus of EU leaders this week as the European Council meets in Brussels. Of note, the leaders will discuss and debate further military aid to Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to use NATO/EU weapons to strike Russian positions and troops inside Russia – something Russian President Vladimir Putin has angrily threatened the West would be seen as a significant escalation crossing one of his "red lines."

The EU leaders will also discuss the recently released competitiveness reports written by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and how best to implement the report's sweeping recommendations. They will also discuss ongoing trade tensions with China.

Later in the week, President Biden will visit Germany for meetings with German Chancellor Scholz. Biden was scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton hitting Florida.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are preparing for the IMF/World Bank meetings beginning on October 21st. Until then, markets are focused on US retail sales and industrial production figures released this week as indicators of where the Federal Reserve will go with rates when it meets in November.

Moving to Asia, markets remain intensely focused on China following the extraordinary efforts to stabilize the economy. Beijing releases inflation figures and important trade balance numbers this week. Elsewhere, Japan releases CPI figures.

In Europe, the European Central Bank meets on interest rates, and markets anticipate a 25-basis point cut. The UK releases inflation data, and Germany sees the release of the ZEW survey, which will better clarify how the country's economy is doing in the face of a spate of negative data.

Below are the other major political and economic events we are watching this coming week:

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

· The World Health Summit begins in Berlin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden was scheduled to travel to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration. However, the trip was cancelled due to Hurricane Herman hitting Florida.

· The XVI Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas takes through October 16 I Mendoza, Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China PPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with senior Iraqi leaders in Baghdad. Araghchi has been traveling throughout the region this past week meeting with leaders in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in an effort to gather support and in advance of an expected Israeli attack on Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Global

· OPEC releases its monthly report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on 1559 report (regarding the security situation in Lebanon).

· The Nobel Prize for Economics winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada celebrates Thanksgiving. Financial markets are closed.

· Today is Columbus Day in the US. Stock markets remain open while bond markets and some banks observe the day and are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before the "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy" conference hosted by Stanford University.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in panel discussion at the Central Bank of Argentina's Money and Banking Conference:" Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy and Inflation” in Argentina. Later, he participates in lecture/fireside chat," The Current State of U.S. Monetary Policy," hosted by the Department of Economics at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Vietnam through October 14 and sign a railway deal. It is the first official visit to Vietnam by a Chinese premier in 11 years.

· U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

· Malaysia's parliament will convene and likely pass the Mufti Bill, which would empower religious figures to make edicts without parliamentary oversight.

· Today is Health and Sports Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (September)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

· India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

· China Vehicle Sales (September)/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Foreign Minister Foreign Secretary Lammy travels to Beijing and Shanghai, China for meetings.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and then he will travel to Germany. At SHAPE, Rutte will meet with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Christopher Cavoli, and other senior officers. In the afternoon, NATO Secretary General will travel to Wiesbaden, where he will meet the German Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, and visit the site of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training – Ukraine (NSATU) command.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

· The EU Environment Council will meet in Luxembourg. The agenda includes approving the conclusions on preparations for the COP29 Meetings, the UN Convention on Biodiversity, and the Global Plastics Treaty.

· NATO holds “Steadfast Noon” nuclear preparedness drills in the North Sea.

· The 10th Annual Berlin Process Summit takes place in Berlin, Germany. The event brings together representatives from Western Balkans and EU countries.

· The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg. The meeting will focus on It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters and cooperation (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity). The delegations will also touch on regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The UK International Investment Summit, hosted by the UK Government, takes place in London. The aim of the Summit is to show “the UK is the best place in the world to do business.” However, the summit comes two weeks before Prime Minister Keir Starmer releases his new budget, which is expected to call for significantly higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. On Thursday, P&O Ferries – which was prepared to roll-out a $1.4 billion port expansion in the UK as the showpiece of the conference, announced they were pulling out of the deal after Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Transport Minister Louise Haigh called the firm “rogue operators” and were boycotting using the firm.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will speak on a panel at the Reserve Bank of India’s 90th Anniversary High-Level Conference in New Delhi, India.

· Ireland Construction PMI (September)

· Romania Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

· Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

· Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Turkey Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Nigerian Economic Summit will be held in Abuja. Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun and central bank governor Yemi Cardoso will be among the speakers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Global

· The G7 Tech and Digital Ministers meet in Cernobbio, Italy.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations

· The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council meets in Geneva, Switzerland

· The OECD’s Forum on Green Finance and Investment 2024 takes place in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in moderated conversation at event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business in New York.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in moderated conversation on the economic outlook and impact on small business with the Gathering Spot.

· Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)/ Wholesale Sales Final (August)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ Redbook (October/12)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agenda will focus on combating terrorism, enhancing security cooperation among states, and promoting economic collaboration through trade and investment initiatives.

· Japanese political parties officially kick off campaigning in advance of the October 27 general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)/ BoJ Adachi Speech

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Kazakhstan GDP (September)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss EU-Swiss relations, and the fight against antisemitism.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Luxembourg. They will discuss energy prices, and the state of the energy union and REPowerEU.

· The Second Accession Conference with Albania will meet in Luxembourg.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

· Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production Final (August)

· France Inflation Rate Final (September)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

· Spain Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

· Serbia Building Permits (August)

· Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Cyber Defense Forum, organized by the African Telecommunications Union, will take place in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet for consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, there will be a TCC meeting on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its World Energy Outlook 2024 Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/11)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/11)

· Canada Housing Starts (September)/ Manufacturing Sales Final (August)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his 3rd annual policy address. Lee is expected to focus on the economy after further curbing dissent earlier this year with the imposition of a local national security law known as Article 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Seiji Adachi gives a speech to business leaders in Kagawa, Japan.

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Westpac Leading Index (September)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (September)

· Japan Machinery Orders (August)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Remittances (August)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (October/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit is held in Brussels. The summit will be co-chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the Emir of Qatar, H.H. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as the rotating President of the GCC. The summit is an opportunity for the EU to develop a closer partnership with the GCC and its member states (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar, and the State of Kuwait).

· The 76th Frankfurt Book Fair takes place through October 20 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner of Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI Input & Output (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ European Council

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (September)

· Russia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenya’s Senate will debate whether to dismiss Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after the National Assembly voted to impeach him. Gachagua has denied all 11 charges against him, which include enriching himself and stirring ethnic hatred.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (August)

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Global

· G7 Defense Ministers meet in Napoli, Italy.

· The BRICS Business Forum and Business Council meets in Moscow, Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the Forum.

· IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will give a speech on the outlook for the global economy and policy priorities in advance of the IMF/World Bank meetings the following week in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Annual Exploring Career Pathways in Economics and Related Fields Conference.

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/05)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Business Inventories (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/16)

· Brazil Business Confidence (October)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

· Australia Employment Change (September)/ RBA Bulletin/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council will meet in Brussels. EU leaders will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East, competitiveness, migration, and general foreign affairs.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU trade ministers through October 18 in Budapest, Hungary.

· France and Ukraine will hold a Nuclear Safety Conference in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank meets to discuss and set interest rates. A press conference will follow.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives speaks via video message on "Supervisory expectations on public cloud usage by European Central Bank (ECB)" at KPMG Cloud Conference 2024 "Profitable Scaling: The Cloud Journey accelerates" in Frankfurt, Germany. Later, she participates on a panel discussion at the “Financial and Regulatory Outlook Conference 2024: A New Age of Finance” organized by Oliver Wyman in Rome, Italy.

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (September)/ CPI Final (September)/ Core Inflation Rate Final (September)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

· Italy Balance of Trade (August)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

· Great Britain BoE Woods Speech

· Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 18, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden will visit Germany. He had been scheduled to visit last week but had to cancel due to Hurricane Milton. The previously scheduled visit was going to be a formal state visit – something no US President has enjoyed in over 40 years. This visit is now being downgraded to a simple one-day visit. Additionally, there was going to be a meeting of NATO leaders chaired by Biden at Ramstein Air Base to discuss the situation in Ukraine. That meeting will not be rescheduled for this visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

· USA Building Permits Prel (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/18)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (September)/ Leading Indicator (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The APEC Finance Ministerial Meeting is held in Lima, Peru.

· ASEAN’s AIPA General Assembly meets in Vientiane.

· Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will present the annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

· India Bank Loan Growth (October/04)/ Deposit Growth (October/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/11)

· Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate Q2

· Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/12)

· China House Price Index (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ NBS Press Conference

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Retail Sales (September)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (September)

· Euro Area Current Account (August)/ Construction Output (August)

· Spain Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Serbia Current Account (August)

· Slovakia Current Account (August)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July) / Balance of Trade (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The IMF’s executive board will meet for the first review of Ethiopia’s $3.4 billion financing program.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (September)/ Building Permits (August)

· Ghana PPI (September)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey. The two leaders will discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

· The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

· China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/12/24 Francis Kelly 10/12/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Gets Ready for IMF/World Bank Week, The FDIC’s Look at the Resolution of Systemically Important Banks, and HUD Looks at the Mortgage Market and Access to Capital

October 14 - 18, 2024

It is going to be another relatively quiet week in Washington across the board – Congress remains out of session until after the elections, and regulators are quietly preparing for the annual International Monetary Fund/World Bank weeklong meetings that begin on October 21st. With finance ministers, central bankers, and other major regulatory officials converging on Washington for back-to-back meetings, speeches, and events, there will likely be a lot to watch and report (which we will detail in next week’s report).

We would note that that The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee to discuss the resolution of systemically important financial companies. This continues to be a moving target for bank regulators as banks and Congressional Republicans push back on expanding the definitions for “systemically important.”

Also, this coming week, the Department of Housing and Urban Development is partnering with Ginnie Mae to host a conference looking at the mortgage market and access to capital. With the housing market nationally struggling with still too-high interest rates and a shortage of housing inventory – an issue that has become a hot-button issue on the presidential and congressional campaign trails – this will be a particularly interesting event. In addition to this, House Financial Services Committee Ranking Democrat Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA) said in an interview last week that if Democrats win control of the House in November and she becomes Committee chair again, her number one priority issue will be housing.

Last week, regulators, lobbyists, and everyone else who follows the banking sector were jarred to see TD Bank hit with a $3 billion fine and agreed to asset caps after submitting a guilty plea for money laundering by drug traffickers. As the 10th largest bank in the U.S., the size and impact of the penalties are pretty significant.

Also last week, the digital asset exchange Crypto.com sued the Securities and Exchange Commission after learning they are the target of potential charges by the agency. Crypto argued in their lawsuit that the SEC has no authority over their business or the crypto business overall, saying the agency is acting under “an unlawful de factor rule.” This will be a very interesting case, especially in light of the Supreme Court’s Chevron decision earlier this year clipping the wings of aggressive regulatory actions.

Finally, and perhaps most impactful to markets, the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division jointly released their final version of Hart-Scott-Rodino rules (e.g., new rules dealing with mergers and acquisitions). One aspect of the rules that private equity and other acquisition firms took note of is how the regulators want to look at how Big Tech firms and private equity are acquiring large amounts of smaller companies in a bid to snuff out oncoming competition potentially.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in Pro Forma session and not returning to work until after the election. No work and no hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session until after the November elections. No business or hearings are scheduled. They will return to work on November 12.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, October 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks virtually entitled “Career Opportunities and Diversity in Economics” at the Exploring Careers in Economics event hosted by the Federal Reserve.

· Friday, October 18, 12:10 p.m. (Vienna, Austria) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks entitled “Decentralized Finance” at the Nineteenth Annual Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop in Vienna, Austria.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· Tuesday, October 15, 8:30 a.m. – HUD and Ginnie Mae will host a strategic summit on "Mortgage Market Resilience and Access to Credit." Participants include am Valverde, acting president of Ginnie Mae; Daniel Hornung, special assistant to the president for economic policy at the National Economic Council; Julia Gordon, assistant HUD secretary for housing and Federal Housing Administration commissioner; Bob Broeksmit, president/CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association; David Dworkin, president/CEO of the National Housing Conference; Ted Tozer, fellow in the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute and former Ginnie Mae President.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, October 15, 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold its annual Private Credit Forum. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will deliver remarks.

· Thursday, October 17, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, October 15, 6:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will receive the Pioneer Award from the Asian Pacific American Bar Association (APABA) of Washington, D.C. at the Annual Gala.

· Wednesday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. – The CFTC’s The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Clearing and Risk will hold a public roundtable Oct. 16 from 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m., to discuss existing, new, and emerging issues in clearing. The roundtable will be held in the Conference Center at CFTC's headquarters at Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street N.W., Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, October 16, 11:00 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a keynote fireside chat at FIX Trading Community’s Americas Trading Conference 2024 in New York.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, October 15, 9:00 a.m. – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee to discuss the resolution of systemically important financial companies.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Friday, October 18, 8:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. – The FTC hosts the Second Federal Trade Commission Conference on Marketing and Public Policy in Washington, D.C.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, October 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration holds a board meeting. They are scheduled to vote on a proposed rule dealing with Annual Independent Audits and Internal Controls over Financial Reporting Requirements

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, October 15, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a hybrid forum on the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

· Tuesday, October 15, 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold its annual Private Credit Forum. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will deliver remarks.

· Thursday, October 17, 8:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Meeting the global climate finance challenge: A conversation with UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell” in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Sunday and Monday, October 13 – 14 - Stanford University's Hoover Institution holds a conference, beginning at 11:05 a.m., on "A 50-Year Retrospective on The Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy” in Stanford, California. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will deliver remarks.

· Friday, October 17, 12:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Sustainable Homeownership and Wealth Preservation for Communities of Color."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/11/24 Francis Kelly 10/11/24

The Global Week Ahead

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel, Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Monday is the one-year anniversary of Hamas' surprise attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking hundreds more hostage, changing the security situation in the greater Middle East and leading to war in Gaza and now in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Markets are now bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran after Iran attacked Israel with another rocket attack this past week. The biggest question is whether Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Will be sending updates as the situation progresses this week.

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Germany for a US president's first official state visit in almost four decades. While in Germany, Biden will chair a meeting of NATO state leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely address the issue of whether Ukraine will be allowed to use NATO-supplied weapons to proactively attack Russian targets inside Russia – something which Moscow has said would be a dramatic provocation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has – again – suggested the use of nuclear weapons. Still, most experts we have spoken to do not believe he will use them and instead ramp up asymmetric attacks on Western targets, impacting market operations (e.g., cyberattacks, cutting critical communication cables, etc.).

Biden will travel from Germany to Angola. He is following up on a promise he made to African leaders in 2022 that he would visit Africa and seek to shore up relations with the continent.

Elsewhere in the world, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to travel to China this week to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. She is also expected to discuss the EU's ongoing deliberations to effectively block Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) from being imported to China – a hot-button issue between China and the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, Markets are looking at the US September CPI figures released this week after the surprise uptick in employment numbers last week. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting minutes and the Michigan consumer survey for October are out this week.

In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes are also being released this week. The UK releases GDP numbers, while Germany releases factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures—all closely watched to see if Germany is beginning to pull out of its economic doldrums. France will present its 2025 budget this week, which will be important as the fragile political coalition could be impacted.

This week in Asia, China returns from its week-long Golden Week holiday, and the country's stock exchanges reopen. It also releases CPOI and PPI figures. Japan releases its Monthly Labor Survey, Economy Watchers Survey, and PPI figures—all important figures to watch as Japan prepares for snap parliamentary elections on October 27.

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil holds local elections, including for Mayor of Sao Paulo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) will be held. Opinion polling indicates that the most likely scenario will be a vote in favor of constructing the plant. If approved, it will help Kazakhstan's domestic electricity supply challenges and reduce its dependence on both fossil fuels and electricity imports from abroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· London is bracing for a large protest in support of Palestinians.

· Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold local elections.

· In Italy, Matteo Salvini's League holds an annual meeting in Pontida.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tunisia will hold a presidential election. President Kais Saied will almost certainly win as opposition parties are boycotting the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 7, 2024

Global

· Today is the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ assault on Israel, murdering more than 1,200 people and the taking of hundreds of civilian hostages, many of whom have been subsequently murdered.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court begins its fall session. They will hear cases dealing with online pornography, transgender rights, and nuclear waste storage.

· A Colombian Court will hear evidence against ex-president Alvaro Uribe on bribery and fraud charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas (IBAT) Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall Seminar.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Money Marketeers of New York University Inc.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

· USA Consumer Credit Change (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Leaders of the ASEAN bloc meet for a three-day summit in the Laotian capital, Vientiane, to discuss economic and security issues. Japan's newly appointed prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also joins the meeting to talk about East Asia's role in the Southeast Asian club of 10 nations. More than 1,000 CEOs and senior executives along with world leaders will attend.

. Pakistan is bracing for nationwide protests to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The anti-Israel demonstrations are being held by the Muslim-majority nation's major Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

· South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visits Southeast Asia, stopping in the Philippines and Singapore. In the city-state, he is slated to attend a business forum highlighting economic cooperation and is also expected to speak on issues including Korean unification at a separate lecture.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Japan Coincident Index Prel (August)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is expected to visit China for meetings. She is expected to discuss the ongoing EU deliberations on EV tariffs and the situation in Ukraine and the Mideast.

· The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg. They are scheduled to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

· The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Foreign Ministers will meet in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's symposium, "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe," in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Factory Orders (August)

· Romania Retail Sales (August)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (August)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (September)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ PPI (August)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Oil Week conference will kick off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations.

· The United Nations Human Rights Council will meet to discuss Honduras and Haiti.

· The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.

· The United Nations International Conference on Victims of Terrorism co-organized by the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) and the Kingdom of Spain will take place on 8 and 9 October 2024 at Palacio de Congresos Europa in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.

· The 7th Vienna Energy Security Dialogue takes place in Vienna, Austria.

· BRICS Senior Health officials will meet in Moscow through October 9 in advance of the BRICS Health Ministers this week.

· The 11th Meeting of Heads of BRICS Intellectual Property Agencies meets in Moscow through October 9.

· The BRICS Think Tank Network for Finance Conference will be held in Moscow (in person and via video).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Latin American and Caribbean Competition Forum begins in Santa Domingo, The Dominican Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on “The Discount Window: 1913-2000” at Davidson, College, Davidson, North Carolina.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech on Global Inflation at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 2024, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the 23rd annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Redbook (October/05) / RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/04)

· Chile Inflation Rate (September)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Brazil Car Production (September)

· Argentina Industrial Production (August)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Regional election results are scheduled in India's northern Jammu and Kashmir region. They were the first polls in the former state -- now a federally-governed territory -- in about a decade and came five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government scrapped its special autonomy status.

· China’s stock exchange reopens after a weeklong holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (August)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Household Spending (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Theya re expected to discuss a recovery plan for Europe, the situation in Ukraine, EU energy policy, and the upcoming G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, climate finance, tax policy, and pending legislative proposals dealing with digital finance and capital markets union.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

· The European Parliament will debate the state of Georgia’s declining democracy, Russian attempts to interfere in Moldova’s presidential elections and the situation in Sudan with EU foreign policy chief Borrell. Resolutions on Georgia and Moldova will be put to a vote on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair the keynote session at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul will give the keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)

· Germany Industrial Production (August)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Greece Balance of Trade (August)

· Hungary Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Mozambique Presidential Election

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

· G7 Health Ministers meet through October 11 in Ancona, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook will give remarks on “Entrepreneurship and Innovation” at the Women for Women Summit presented by the College of Charleston School of Business, Charleston, South Carolina.

· The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Payments Symposium will be held Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President, and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister are scheduled to speak.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association monthly meeting.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks on the current state of the economy before the Future of Global Energy Conference presented by Shell USA, Inc. and co-hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the Worcester Regional Research Bureau 39th Annual Meeting.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy and the economic outlook at Boise State University.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/04) /Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/04) / / FOMC Minutes released

· Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will formally dissolve its lower house ahead of snap elections to be held on Oct. 27, when newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look to strengthen their numbers in parliament. Ishiba was elected LDP leader -- and became the country's newest prime minister -- as Fumio Kishida opted not to vie for another term in Japan's top job.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

· Kazakhstan PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU employment, social policy, and health ministers in Budapest, Hungary through October 10.

UK onservative MPs start voting to determine the final two candidates vying to become the party’s next leader, after Rishi Sunak announced his resignation in the wake of the party’s heavy general election defeat. The outcome is announced tomorrow. Party members will then vote on these two options

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a session entitled "The true cost of greening the world" at IUCN Leaders Forum 2024 "Harnessing innovation, enabling conversation" in Geneva, Switzerland.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

· Ireland Industrial Production (August)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France New Car Registrations (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Daniel Chapo is the presidential candidate for the governing Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and is highly likely to be elected president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to have a private meeting on Somalia, and in the afternoon a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· The G7 holds a Ministerial meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation in Rome, Italy.

· The 4th Meeting of BRICS Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors takes place through October 11 in Moscow.

· The 14th Meeting of BRICS Health Ministers will take place through October 11 in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will travel to Germany for the first state visit of a US president in four decades. He will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Additionally, Biden will lead a summit on the Ukraine War at the US airbase in Ramstein. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat,"2025 Economic Outlook and Beyond" before the Virginia Maritime Association 2024 International Trade Symposium.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives remarks and participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy before event organized by Binghamton University.

· USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/05) / EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/04)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October)/9

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Retail Sales (August)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan celebrates its National Day, with new President Lai Ching-te due to mark the occasion with a speech. With tensions with China at very tense levels, comments being made in Taipei will be closely watched.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank Lending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/05)/ PPI (September)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/05)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (September)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (August)/ Building Permits MoM Final (August)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (August)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (September)/ Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Justice and Home Affairs Council ministers will meet in Luxembourg through October 11. They will discuss fighting child sexual abuse, Schengen, EU law enforcement IT systems, asylum and migration, and internal security.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Ms. Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, regarding joining the EU.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

· Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q2

· Hungary Inflation Rate (September)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

· Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (August)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

· Greece Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (September)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Friday, October 11, 2024

Global

· The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s Community Bankers Symposium will be held in Chicago. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give remarks on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Community Bankers Symposium (Virtual).

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks before the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Navigating a Change Landscape" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in panel before the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas Women in Financial Services Conference.

· Mexico Industrial Production (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA PPI (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Prel (October)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/11)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Macao will hold a leadership election with just one candidate, former top court president Sam Hou-fai. Only the roughly 400 pro-Beijing members of an election committee are allowed to vote. Sam recently described the development of the casino industry, which powers Macao's economy, as "disorderly" and "barbaric.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)/ Food Inflation (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/04)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

· China Vehicle Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Romania Inflation Rate (September)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

· Slovakia Construction Output (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Turkey Current Account (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

· Angola Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain: National Day, aka Dia de la Hispanidad, commemorating the day in 1492 when Christopher Columbus caught sight of the New World. Includes annual military parade in Madrid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden travels to Angola for meetings through October 15 with Angolan President João Lourenço to discuss increased trade and climate collaboration.

Fulcrum Perspectives

Washington Regulators Get Very Quiet A Week Before the Elections and the Next FMOC Meetings; SEC Chair Gensler Heads to Vegas to Talk About the Global Money Ecosystem

October 28 - November 1, 2024

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

Our U.S. Election Special: Election Integrity, Who Your Neighbors Gave To, and How Economic Indicators Impact Votes. Plus, Why Europe is Unprepared to Defend Itself, and Mexico’s Economic Challenges

October 25 - 27, 2024

U.S. 2024 Elections

Africa

Europe

Mexico

It’s World Bank/IMF Week in Washington, There Are Not One But Two Big Fintech Conferences This Week, And Pressure on FDIC Chair Gruenberg To Explain Himself Grows

October 21 - 25, 2024

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

The Latin American Nations are Best Positioned for Nearshoring, How America’s Gender Gap is Reshaping the Election, and Macroeconomic Limits of China’s Africa Strategy

October 18 - 20, 2024

The Tense Wait for Israel’s Military Response to Iran’s Attack Continues, the European Council Gathers on Ukraine and Middle East Policy, Biden Goes to Germany, and the ECB Meets on Rates

October 13 - 20, 2024

October 11 - 13, 2024

What to Watch For At The Upcoming BRICS+ Summit, China’s Dollar Dilemma, Time for A Containment Strategy for Venezuela, and How Protectionism is Failing as an Economic Strategy

The Sad Anniversary of Hamas’ Murderous Assault on Israel, Biden Travels to Germany and Angola, US Supreme Court Begins its Autumn Term, and Germany’s Foreign Minister to Travel to China

October 6 - 13, 2024

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Monday, October 7, 2024

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Friday, October 11, 2024

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Sunday, October 13, 2024

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