The Global Week Ahead

Nov 10

Preparing for the 2nd Trump Presidency, Peru Hosts the APEC Summit and Brazil Hosts theG20 Leaders While a Muted COP29 Begins, and Markets Wait for A Slew of Major Economic Reports

November 13 - 17, 2024

The political world shook last Tuesday when former President Donald Trump won a sweeping victory with enough of a coattail to help carry Republicans to win control of the U.S. Senate and – as of this writing – likely holding onto a razor-thin majority of the U.S. House of Representatives The immediate fall-out has been a massive spike in geopolitical assessments in major capitals around the world, trying to get a handle on the potential impact of the return of the Trump foreign economic policy – particularly one that is now threatening across-the-board tariffs on any country Trump believes is not dealing fairly with the U.S.

The clearest directional indicator of where and how Trump is going to move on these policies will be found in his cabinet appointments. We expect the President-elect will move swiftly this coming week to begin filling out his cabinet while pressing the Republican Senate to rapidly accelerate the confirmation process as soon as the Senate is sworn into office on January 3. Why the heightened state of urgency? Our view is that Trump is a "lame duck" who cannot run for re-election in 2028. At best, according to Trump staffers we have spoken to, Trump understands he has a solid two-to-two and half years to move on his agenda before the 2028 election cycle starts up, slowing down Washington's political legislative and regulatory agendas (as they do with processes again. He's going to be a man on a mission, we have been told, to move hard and fast, more than any other President we have seen.

Also, this week, the APEC Summit begins in Peru. The event highlights the growing political and trade relations between Latin America and the Indo-Pacific. Chinese President Xi will be in attendance and will use the trip to inaugurate the controversial Chancay port in Peru. The U.S. is concerned – as are some Peruvian leaders and other regional leaders – the port, which is owned and operated by the Chinese – could be used to support Chinese Naval operations in the region.

President Biden will also be in Peru for the APEC Summit, part of a six-day trip to Peru and Brazil. While in Brazil, he will attend the G20 Summit, hold bilateral meetings with Brazil's President Lulu, and visit the Amazon Rain Forest to advocate for faster policy responses to Climate Change.

While all this is happening in Peru and Brazil, the United Nations' COP29 Summit begins in Azerbaijan. This meeting seems to be on track to be less ambitious and more muted than previous COP Summits. A number of global investment banks—normally regular and active attendees at COP meetings—are not attending. While an estimated 197 countries will be represented, far fewer national leaders will be in attendance than in prior years.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets are looking out for a raft of economic reports in the U.S., EU, China, and Japan. Despite being a shortened week for U.S. markets due to Veterans Day, markets will be intensely focused on the CPI print on Wednesday, and the PPI will be released on Thursday. Also, U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures will be out this week on Friday. Additionally, Fed Chair Jay Powell will be speaking at a conference hosted by the Dallas Federal Reserve on Thursday.

In Europe, the UK GDP and labor market figures are released on Tuesday, Germany's ZEW survey is out on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank's minutes from its October meeting are out on Thursday. On Friday, the ECB releases the Autumn Economic GDP Forecast.

In Asia, China releases its October industrial production and retail sales figures on Friday, while Japan releases flash Q3 GDP estimates.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Primer Grito de Independencia Day in Panama, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit 2024 begins in Lima, Peru and runs through November 16.

· Mauritius holds parliamentary elections.

· Today is Cambodia Independence Day, celebrating when in 1945 Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk proclaimed the country an independent kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Remembrance Day, marking the anniversary of the end of World War I in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 11, 2024

Global

· The United Nations COP9 Summit begins in Baku, Azerbaijan. More than 197 countries will participate, and it runs through November 24.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Grossi is expected to travel to Iran to discuss the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Veterans Day, a U.S. federal holiday. Most banks as well as the bond market is closed. The equity markets are open.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (September)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Diet will select a new Prime Minister in an extraordinary session of the parliament.

· Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang will meet with Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Gam Kim Yong and co-chair the 20th Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation.

· The IMF begins its mission to Pakistan to consider possible aid.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (September)/ Bank Lending (October)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Sales (October)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q4

· Malaysia Construction Output Q3

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Kazakhstan PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Armistice Day in the UK and most of Europe, marking the end of World War I.

· The Paris Peace Forum begins and runs through November 12.

· The Berliner Forum on Foreign Affairs begins in Berlin, Germany. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the Malta Financial Services Authority’s (MFSA) Annual Banking Supervision Conference in St. Julian’s, Malta.

· Ireland Construction PMI (October)

· Romania Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Industrial Production (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Auto Sales (October)

· Slovakia Construction Output (September)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (September)

· Hungary Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Arab-Islamic Summit begins in Riyad., Saudi Arabia. The primary discussion will focus on the situation in Gaza.

· Syria peace talks sponsored by Russia, Turkey, and Iran will take place in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (October)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (October)/ Core Inflation Rate (October)

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli President Isaac Herzog will meet with President Biden at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments systems at the Clearing House Annual Conference, New York, New York.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in the Yahoo Finance Invest 2024"New Challenges, New Opportunities" conference.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech, AI and the Changing Financial Landscape" before the Carnegie Mellon University Lecture Series.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Confidence (November)

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (November)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 1 to 2.5 yrs./ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Loan Officer Survey

· Canada Building Permits (September)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (October)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (October)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 15th Annual China Airshow begins in Zhuhai and runs through Sunday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (November)/ NAB Business Confidence (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (October)

· India Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Parliament holds confirmation hearings for 6 executive vice presidents-designate, including Italy's Raffaele Fitto, Spain's Teresa Ribera, France's Stephane Sejourne and Finland's Henna Virkkunen, as well as Estonia's Kaja Kallas.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a high-level policy panel entitled "Financial sanctions and their implications for the international monetary system" at Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance 2024 organized by the ECB, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Netherlands Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Germany Inflation Rate Final (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ ZEW Current Conditions (November)/ Current Account (September)

· Romania Inflation Rate (October)

· Turkey Current Account (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Claimant Count Change (October)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Serbia Inflation Rate (October)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Tech Festival 2024 will take place in Cape Town through November 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q3/ Unemployed Persons Q3/ Manufacturing Production (September)

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Global

· The G7 Ministerial Meeting on Tourism begins in Florence, Italy.

· The UN Security Council will hold a vote on renewing Yemen sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Senate Republicans will meet to vote on who will be the chamber’s next majority leaders. Senate Democrats will hold their leadership vote in December.

· Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives will meet to vote on their leadership for 2025-2026. House Democrats will meet in on November 19 to choose their leaders.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of Memphis.

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to give luncheon keynote before hybrid “Energy and the Economy: Meeting Rising Energy Demand" Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/08) / MBA Purchase Index (November/08) / Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)/ Redbook (November/09) / Total Household Debt Q3/ Monthly Budget Statement (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/08)

· Peru Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (September)

· Japan PPI (October)

· Australia Wage Price Index Q3

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment AUG

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q3

· India M3 Money Supply (November/01)

· China New Yuan Loans (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (October)/ Total Social Financing (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Michel Barnier in Brussels.

· The Rebuild Ukraine conference will be held in Warsaw through Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France Unemployment Rate Q3

· Romania Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production Final (September)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Belarus Inflation Rate (October)

· Poland Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The breakaway region of Somaliland will hold a presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Global

· The International Energy Agency Monthly Market Report is released.

· The G20 Social Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and runs through November 16.

· The IMF’s 25th Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference begins in Washington, D.C., and runs through November 15.

· The UN Security Council votes on the renewal of the UN mission in Abiye, a disputed region between Sudan and South Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden begins a six-day state visit to Peru and Brazil and also attends the APEC Summit being hosted by Peru this year. Chinese President Xi will also attend the summit. Additionally, Biden will visit the Amazon rainforest to stress the importance of dealing with climate change.

· The CPAC Conference begins in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Argentine President Javier Milei is expected to attend also meet with President-elect Trump.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a speech at the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Global Perspectives Conference.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on central bank independence and the economic outlook at the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Chapter of the Econometric Society 2024 Meeting, Departamento de Montevideo, Uruguay.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give keynote before the “Intermediating Impact: Making Missing Markets" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)

· USA PPI (October) / Initial Jobless Claims (November/09)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/13/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/13)

· Colombia Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (October)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Sri Lanka holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (October)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a panel debate about the state of the economy at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sidney.

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Full Time & Part Time Employment Chg (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/09)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/09)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (October)/ WPI Food Index (October)

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks alongside UK chancellor Rachel Reeves at the annual financial and professional services dinner at the City of London’s Mansion House.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine Mann will give a speech entitled “Revitalizing the Global Economy” at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 31 Encuentro del Sector Financiero organized by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a policy panel entitled "Reassessing Policy Tools for Current and Future Challenges" at 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "Rethinking the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global Economy" in Washington, D.C.,

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (October)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Hungary Construction Output (September)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Spain Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ Employment Change Prel Q3/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Flash Q3/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Household Consumption (September)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/08)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (September)/ Mining Production (September)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Friday, November 15, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (September)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (November)/ Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Business Inventories (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/15)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (September)

· Peru Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Peru.

· Nikkei and the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) host the 21st CSIS/Nikkei Symposium in Tokyo under the title of "Shaping the Future: New Leadership in Japan, U.S. and Next Indo-Pacific Order." The Mount Fuji Dialogue, a gathering that unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, is scheduled to start on Saturday in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)/

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q3/ GDP Price Index Prel Q3/ GDP Private Consumption Prel Q3/ Industrial Production Final (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tertiary Industry Index (September)

· China House Price Index (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ NBS Press Conference

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q3/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Malaysia Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q3

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Final Q3

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP (October)

· India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth (November/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s 2025 budget is presented to the Bundestag.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Budget) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the EU’s 2025 annual budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the high-level European Supervisory Authorities’ conference entitled "Financial services and Gender – Data, trends and progress in the EU and beyond" organized by EBA, ESMA and EIOPA in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane moderates a policy panel at a seminar entitled “A Fragmenting Trading System: where we stand and implications for policy" as part of the G7 Finance Track events organized by Banca d'Italia in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion on productivity at the CER Ditchley Park conference "A European path to higher economic growth" in Chipping Norton, UK.

· UK GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3/ GDP (September)/ Goods Trade Balance (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Business Investment Prel Q3/ Construction Output (September)/ GDP (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (October)/ Labour Productivity Final Q2

· Germany Wholesale Prices (October)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

· France Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Poland Inflation Rate Final (October)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (September)

· Serbia Building Permits (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola M3 Money Supply (October)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q3

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden will attend the G20 Summit -which begins on Monday – and will meet with Brazilian President Lula in Rio de Janeiro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an on-stage conversation at Trilateral Commission meeting in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability, in London.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds a national referendum on a new constitution and could lead to the end of military rule.

The Global Week Ahead

November 13 - 17, 2024

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