Recommended Weekend Reads

August 9 - 11, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Geoeconomics

• The Case for a Carbon Tax: My Long Read Q&A with Kyle and Shuting Pomerleau  American Enterprise Institute’s Policial Economy Podcast

  The Biden administration has set ambitious goals to decrease US carbon emissions. Starting in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act granted clean energy tax credits to businesses in hopes of encouraging a greener economy. Kyle and Shuting Pomerleau see a carbon tax as a superior approach. To offset any regressive effects, they propose a revenue swap, using the income from the tax to directly finance an expanded child tax credit.  The interview is with Shuting Pomerleau, who is the deputy director of climate policy at the Niskanen Center. Kyle Pomerleau is a senior fellow at AEI, where he studies federal tax policy.

• Pocketbook Politics: The Impact of Wealth on Political Preferences and Participation  Anton Brännlund,  David Cesarini,  Karl-Oskar Lindgren, Erik Lindqvist,  Sven Oskarsson  & Robert Östling/ National Bureau of Economic Research

  The rich tend to support policies favoring the affluent and are over-represented among both voters and legislators. This paper investigates whether these correlations reflect causal effects of wealth by leveraging random, positive wealth shocks in the form of lottery prizes. Compared to suitably matched controls, large-prize winners are no more likely to cast votes in national elections or run for political office. We also find no significant effects of parents’ lottery winnings on their children’s political participation. But winners of large lottery prizes become more negative toward taxes on wealth, real estate and inheritances. Although we do not detect any statistically significant effects on other political preferences, effects tend to go in the direction of a more right-wing political orientation. We find no evidence that lottery wealth changes moral values or strengthens beliefs in the importance of hard work for success in life.

• Is Greece’s Six-Day Work Week a Harbinger?  Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg/Project Syndicate

  Greece’s surprising move back to a six-day work week in some sectors reflects a mix of evolving political sentiment and merciless arithmetic. To maintain their current quality of life, citizens across almost all high-income countries must either open their borders to new immigrants or work more.

China

• Is It Me or the Economic System? Changing Evaluations of Inequality in China Big Data China/CSIS

  Harvard Professor Ilaria Mazzocco and CSIS Scholar Scott Kennedy highlight new research on a significant shift in popular sentiment in China regarding the causes of economic inequality and assess implications for policymakers.

• China’s Real Economic Crisis – Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model Foreign Affairs

  The Chinese economy is stuck. Following Beijing’s decision, in late 2022, to abruptly end its draconian “zero COVID” policy, many observers assumed that China’s growth engine would rapidly reignite. After years of pandemic lockdowns that brought some economic sectors to a virtual halt, reopening the country was supposed to spark a major comeback. Instead, the recovery has faltered, with sluggish GDP performance, sagging consumer confidence, growing clashes with the West, and a collapse in property prices that has caused some of China’s largest companies to default. But there is a more enduring driver of the present stasis, one that runs deeper than Xi’s growing authoritarianism or the effects of a crashing property market: a decades-old economic strategy that privileges industrial production over all else, an approach that, over time, has resulted in enormous structural overcapacity. For years, Beijing’s industrial policies have led to overinvestment in production facilities in sectors from raw materials to emerging technologies such as batteries and robots, often saddling Chinese cities and firms with huge debt burdens in the process.

• No Quick Fixes: China’s Long-Term Consumption Growth   Rhodium Group

  Investment-led growth has peaked in China, as the financial system can no longer generate the same pace of credit expansion as in the past decade. With this source of growth drying up, household consumption growth will be the single most important determinant of China’s long-term economic trajectory and growth rate. In this report, the authors explain what is holding back household consumption in China, examine the policy debate over how to catalyze consumer spending, and offer a range of long-term forecasts for consumption growth.

Latin America

• Can Maduro Pull Off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?   CSIS Americas Program/Ryan Berg

  Venezuela is now living in the post-electoral moment of one of the most brazen thefts in modern Latin American history. Fortunately, the Venezuelan opposition was well prepared for this. In a June 2023 event with CSIS, opposition leader María Corina Machado predicted that if there were elections in Venezuela, “there are only two outcomes: a landslide victory or an obscene fraud.” These words have proven prophetic in recent days, as both of these outcomes have transpired.  President Nicolás Maduro had telegraphed his intentions ahead of the vote by declaring that he would win “by hook or by crook” and recently warning that there would be a “bloodbath” in the country if he didn’t win.
  

• Twelve Graphs on Why Maduro Could “Win” by Stealing Venezuela’s Election   Cato Institute

  After the recent elections in Venezuela, President Nicholas Maduro claimed – without providing any evidence – that he had beaten opposition candidate Edmundo González by a margin of 51 to 44 percent.  But, as this report shows using stastitical analysis broken down into graphs, the fair calculations, of the results shows around 65 percent of Venezuelan voters rejected Maduro’s government at the polls. 

Russia

• Too Many Dead Soldiers to Count  Mediazona & BBC New Russia

  BBC News Russia have confirmed the deaths of 61,831 Russian soldiers in Ukraine by name, including over 2,000 confirmed in the last two weeks. In a Telegram post, Mediazona said it currently has a backlog of soldiers’ deaths to confirm: “The number of obituaries is rising so quickly that [we] can’t keep up.” (The journalists’ count only includes soldiers whose deaths can be verified from sources like obituaries and funeral announcements, so the real number of Russian soldiers killed is much higher. Last month, Meduza and Mediazona estimated it at 120,000.)
  

• 2024 Defense of Japan  Japanese Ministry of Defense

  In its annual risk assessment, the Japanese Defense Ministry writes that the world “is now facing the greatest trial since the end of World War II” and that Japan faces “a new era of crisis” with potential implications for the Indo-Pacific.  The report not only discusses ongoing tensions with China (which is identified as the gravest threat to Japan) and North Korea, but also Russia in a whole new way. The report castigated Russia, saying “This situation, in which a permanent member of the Security Council, which is supposed to take primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security, openly engages in military actions challenging international law and the international order, claims innocent lives and repeatedly uses language and actions that can be interpreted as threats involving nuclear weapons, is unprecedented.”

European Union

• The Missing Strategy in Europe’s Chip Ambitions  Interface I

  European semiconductor technology suppliers hold market-leading—sometimes monopolistic—positions at various points in the global semiconductor value chain. Europe is home to competitive suppliers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, chemicals, sensors, automotive chips, and power semiconductors, to name just a few. Because of the steep barriers to entry and close customer–supplier relationships, these are not easy markets to enter and successfully compete as a new company. The world depends on semiconductor technologies from European companies, and just as Europe depends on front- and back-end manufacturing in Asia, Asian fabrication plants (fabs) depend on manufacturing equipment and chemicals from European suppliers. Furthermore, manufacturers of electric vehicles all over the world depend on chips from Europe. The list goes on. Semiconductors are a strategic asset to Europe, one that provides geopolitical leverage—as other countries depend on access to our technology.

• Foreign Direct Investment and National Security: Perspectives from the EU and the US  Istituto Affair Internazionali

  Foreign direct investment (FDI) serves as a cornerstone of the global economy, driving economic growth and development across nations.  However, amidst rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, there is a discernible shift towards strengthening or establishing new frameworks for FDI screening.  This study looks at the similarities and differences between the US and EU in conducting such screening – and how the implications of these screenings may have implications that go beyond purely economic considerations, affecting transatlantic relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.

• How to Ensure Defense Capabilities for Europe? Economic and Fiscal Consequences Econopol

  Abstract: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised the question of whether the issue of external border security and defense needs to be more closely integrated within the European Union. Many proposals are under discussion aimed at assigning the EU with tasks that are currently performed at national level. Most EU members have increased their defense spending in the past year or plan to do so soon. However, whether an EU defense union is politically achievable remains controversial. It entails additional costs and ‒ even more importantly ‒ the member states would have to give up some of their sovereignty. The project is linked to the plan to build a robust and efficient defense industry. This is because European arms production has so far suffered from national fragmentation and chronic underfunding. In this issue of EconPol Forum, our authors take a critical look at the needs of the common EU defense policy. They examine how it should be efficiently financed and coordinated at EU and national level. They also provide insights into the role of the European defense industry in a single market and its strengths and weaknesses in a global context. Furthermore, they shed light on the financing of R&D and technology through the EU’s coordinated defense policy and its expected impact on growth, productivity, and competitiveness.

The Global Week Ahead

The World Waits and Watches for Iran’s Retaliatory Response, Harris to Announce Her Vice-Presidential Running Mate, And a Fairly Quiet Week in the Global Markets

It may be the Dog Days of Summer in the Northern Hemisphere, with Washington, Brussels, and many other G7 capitals emptied for much-needed vacations.  But markets are closely watching the Middle East as tensions reached a new high point as Iran is likely to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Lebanon and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.   The US has bolstered its naval presence in the region in a show of support for Israel.  But they are also there as the risk of Iranian-backed militia groups in Syria and Iraq will attack US military targets in the region, too.

Meanwhile, following successful meetings of the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the US) foreign ministers and defense ministers last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will hold "2+2" meetings in Annapolis, Maryland, with their counterparts from Australia.  The conference aims to further strengthen security and diplomatic relations between the two nations, particularly around the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) security arrangement, in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific.

Finally, US Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate on Wednesday, capping three weeks of extraordinary momentum as she seeks to win the presidency in November.  The Democratic Convention begins on August 19.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, there are no major central bank speeches scheduled as most central bankers are on vacation in advance of the annual Jackson Hole Conference on August 22. But there are still a healthy number of economic reports being released.

Markets will focus on the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions following last week's interest rate increase. Also, in Asia this week, China will release its inflation print and trade figures on Friday. 

Europe is mostly quiet this week, aside from Germany and France releasing factory orders and industrial production figures.

 Finally, in the US, the ISM services index and international trade balance figures are released this week, as well as the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which offers a clearer snapshot of credit conditions.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will visit Mongolia

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to meet with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 5, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with prospective vice presidential running mates.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Chile through August 6.

·        The Panama Canal Authority will increase daily transits to 35 in another step to normalize the shipping route after a severe drought in 2023 forced authorities to restrict transits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to discuss monetary policy and economic trends before moderated conversation hosted in partnership with the Hawaii Executive Collaborative.

·       Canada Average Hourly Wages (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ ISM Services PMI/ Services Business Activity/ Services Employment/ Services New Orders/ Services Prices (July)/ Loan Officer Survey

·       Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM (July)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (July)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (July)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite PMI (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)/ Monetary Policy Report

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (July)

·       Serbia PPI (July)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US, Germany, the UK, and Morocco will conduct the Arcane Thunder 24 military exercise in Germany and Morocco through Aug. 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (July)

·       Qatar Qatar Financial Centre PMI (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Jordan PPI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Linguists and language researchers will convene in Nairobi for the World Congress of African Linguistics to discuss the use of African languages for development.

·       Burkina Faso celebrates Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its freedom from France in 1960.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (July)

Tuesday, August 6, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will hold talks with their Australian counterparts, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Minister for Defense Richard Marles, in Annapolis, Maryland as part of the 34th Australia-U.S Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN).  The focus of the meetings will be to find new ways to further strengthen US-Australian security ties in the face of growing Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

· In Miami, Florida, the sentencing of former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, convicted of multiple charges, including conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and foreign travel in aid of racketeering.

·       Bolivia celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it won its independence from Spain in 1825.

·       Today is Independence Day in Jamaica, marking when the island country gained its full independence from the UK in 1962.

·       El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, a national holiday.  The day celebrates the feast of the Divine Savior of the World, who El Salvador is named after.

·       Today is Culturama Day, a public holiday celebrated in Saint Kitts and Nevis in honor of the islands’ cultural history.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Car Production MoM (July)/ New Car Registrations MoM (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (August)/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo will end his visit to Mongolia and begin a visit to South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Household Spending (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (July)/ Building Permits MoM Final (June)/ Private House Approvals MoM Final (June)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Germany Factory Orders MoM (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Retail Sales (June)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (June)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q2/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union, the first to be held in Africa, will take place in Cape Town.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast, marking when the nation gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Women and peace and security: Sustaining WPS commitments in the context of accelerated drawdown of peace operation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Presidential candidate Kamala Harris is expected to announce her vice presidential running mate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Used Car Prices (July)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule on whether the opposition Move Forward Party should be dissolved.

· Japan and the US will conclude the joint military exercise Resolute Dragon in Okinawa, which began on July 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (July)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       South Korea Current Account (June)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Japan Coincident Index Prel (June)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (June)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       India M3 Money Supply (July/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government will hold a cabinet meeting, with discussions possibly including a potential windfall tax the government is considering imposing on banks and other companies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at the 2024 Yale Program on Financial Stability Financial Crisis Forum in New Haven, Connecticut.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (June)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Thursday, August 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/02)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/7)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (June)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is ASEAN Day, marking the signing of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations declaration by the five founding members, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, 57 years ago. The body now has 10 members.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/03)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

· Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock delivers the annual Rotary club lecture in Armidale, Australia.

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Car Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

Friday, August 9, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 50th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s leaving office the day after he resigned.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (June)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Part & Full-Time Employment Chg (July)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/09)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida begins a three-day trip to Central Asia.  He will hold the first joint summit with the leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan.  The meetings will focus on how to boost trade as well as establishing stronger diplomatic relations.  Japan is eager to build stronger ties with these nations as they are energy and mineral-rich.

·       Singapore celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day when the country won its independence from Malaysia in 1965.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Current Account Prel Q2

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July)/26/ Deposit Growth (July)/26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Germany Inflation Rate Final (July)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production & Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

·       Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (June)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country won its independence from Spain in 1822.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, the Divest for Palestine conference begins.  The purpose of the conference is to demand that local councils, universities, cultural institutions, and financial institutions cut their ties with and divest their funds from companies that are arming and supporting Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 11, 2024

 Global

·       Today is the final day of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US ban on the importation of Russian uranium takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame will be sworn in to office after being re-elected in July.

·       Chad celebrates its Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Summer Break Comes to Washington

August 5 - 9 , 2024

Last week, we said the Dog Days of Summer were not officially here.  Well, this week, they are here in force.  Washington collectively ran out of town for the summer holidays.  There is very little going on this coming week – no Fed speeches, no big regulatory agency meetings, no Congressional hearings, not many think tank events or trade association events.  So, for now, we should all enjoy the quiet.

But last week was anything but quiet.  The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a bipartisan agreement among the board on a proposed rulemaking to step up oversight of asset managers and the amount of shares in banks that they own.  Until now, this has been a self-certification process with the asset managers promising to live by the rules.  No more.  Bank examiners will be looking much more closely at who owns what amount of shares in banks – something the asset management industry does not like.  But when you have the FDIC Board – Republicans included – agreeing more has to be done, that is tough to fight back against.   You can read all the materials  and proposed rulemaking by the FDIC  HERE.

But that was not the only action happening at the FDIC last week: The agency’s Inspector General released a scathing report further detailing the abusive atmosphere allowed to persist among employees, including how FDIC leadership failed to properly address allegations of sexual harassment of employees or to implement programs designed to prevent such misconduct.  The Inspector General also revealed a separate report is forthcoming detailing  “FDIC executives’ knowledge of harassment and related misconduct” as well as “factual findings regarding selected allegations that senior officials personally engaged in harassment or related misconduct.”

Somehow, FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg continues to hold onto his seat, saying he will step down only when a replacement is confirmed by the Senate – which, considering the Senate Banking Committee failed to move on an expected confirmation vote last week, kicking it into September – makes us believe Gruenberg could be still sitting in the chair for months and months to come.  That is a true scandal in and of itself.

Turning to Congress, the House of Representatives left for the summer break two weeks ago while the Senate was in session last week.  Despite hanging around and extra week, they did not get two expected actions done: First, as mentioned above, the Senate Banking Committee did not move on the nomination of Christy Goldsmith Romero as the next FDIC Chair. Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) put it off until September.  But we think he will still have trouble moving the nomination forward as – so far – all Republicans oppose her nomination.

Over at the Senate Agriculture Committee,  Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) pulled back from marking up her crypto regulatory bill, also choosing to wait until the Senate comes back in September.   We have a feeling the dynamics and concerns over the draft bill will be pretty much unchanged by then, ending Stabenow’s efforts (she is retiring at the end of this session).

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives – while out of session – still fired off two missives of note. First, the House Republican Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Working Group—led by Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman Bill Huizenga (MI-04)—released its final staff report Thursday.  The report is the culmination of the Working Group’s comprehensive examination of the factors contributing to the rise of ESG initiatives and the consequences for everyday investors, in addition to recommendations to protect American capital markets from the threats posed by these politically motivated mandates.

The report calls for legislative action on a number of major points, including:

• Reform the proxy voting system to safeguard the interests of retail investors.

• Promote transparency, accountability, and accuracy in the proxy advisory system.

• Enhance accountability in shareholder voting by aligning voting decisions with the economic interests of shareholders.

• Increase transparency and oversight of large asset managers to ensure their practices reflect the pecuniary interest of retail investors.

• Improve ESG rating agency accountability and transparency to safeguard retail shareholders.

• Strengthen oversight and conduct thorough investigations into federal regulatory efforts that would contort our financial system into a vehicle to implement climate policy.

• Demand transparency, responsibility, and adherence to statutory limits from financial and consumer regulatory agencies.

• Protect U.S. companies from burdensome European Union (“EU”) regulations, safeguarding American interests in global markets.

You can read the full report HERE.

And second, this past Wednesday, the Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Patrick McHenry (R-NC), and all the Committee Republicans sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell demanding the Fed withdraw and re-propose the Basel III Endgame rulemaking in its entirety, given the substantial changes to its original form. The letter follows Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Committee in support of re-proposal where he suggested it needed substantial re-writes.  You can read the full letter HERE.   It is another hammer blow against the draft rules, which are already on life-support as Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr scrambles to salvage the proposal.

Below is a listing of all the other (very few) significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out for the month of August and returns on September 9. No events are scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

• The House is out for the month of August and returns on September 9.   No events are scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Monday, August 5, 4 p.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will discuss monetary policy and economic trends before moderated conversation hosted in partnership with the Hawaii Executive Collaborative in Hawaii.

• Thursday, August 8, 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Tom Barkin speaks virtually at The National Association for Business Economics.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, August 8, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• Thursday, August 8, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet to receive the annual report on the Farm Credit System’s Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers and Ranchers Mission Performance.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Wednesday, August 7, 12:30 p.m. – The Competitive Enterprise Institute holds a discussion on "A Global Antitrust Paradox?," focusing on "the effects of heightened antitrust scrutiny on U.S. industry and national security."

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Wednesday, August 7, 8:30 a.m. – Politico is hosting an event entitled “Finding Balance: What’s Next for Social Security” in New York.  

• Thursday, August 8, 3:00 p.m. – The National Association for Business Economics holds a virtual discussion with Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

August 2 - 4, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

China

• How is China’s domestic situation evolving?    Brooking Institution

  There is a lot of discussion in Washington about China’s social and economic challenges and the potential implications of these challenges for Chinese society, governance, and foreign policy. In the following collection of short essays, Brookings scholars offer their different perspectives drawing on decades of experience living and working in China to answer the question, “How is China’s domestic situation evolving?”  They cover everything from gender right to economic challenges to domestic tourism to education to political and military changes and challenges.

• Why the China model is failing   Australian Strategic Policy Institute

  The authoritarian China model under President Xi Jinping’s leadership is facing increasing failure. Its most critical flaw lies in the unconstrained power of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), arbitrarily intervening in market and social activities for the interest of itself or its leaders without robust mechanisms for accountability and self-correction.  The China model is thought to have contributed to the country’s ‘economic miracle’ in more than four decades to the early 2010s. From 1978 to 2012, the Chinese economy grew at an average annual rate of 9.4 percent, rising from low-income status to become the world’s second largest. For many developing countries, this growth symbolizes the success of the CCP’s authoritarianism, which they seek to emulate.
  

• China’s updated playbook for reviving growth risks more tensions with the world  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  China’s most senior leadership concluded a major political meeting in July with a communiqué correctly identifying a “grave and complex international environment” and “arduous tasks” at home. But as expected, there was limited indication of new policy approaches to revive its slowing economy and recover from a real estate crisis. Nor did the meeting portend a serious effort to defuse growing backlash in the United States, the European Union, Indonesia, Brazil, and others against China’s economic playbook, which emphasizes increased investments in manufacturing for exports to boost its sluggish growth.
  

• Why is It So Hard for China to Boost Domestic Demand? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  As most analysts expected, the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum communiqué, released July 18, was much vaguer on demand-side measures designed to boost the role of consumption in driving the Chinese economy than it was on supply-side measures. This was the case even though over the past five to ten years, a near unanimous consensus has developed among both Chinese and foreign economists that consumption’s very weak role in driving the economy is the main constraint to sustainable growth in China. Despite this consensus, Beijing has been unable to shift the economy away from its overreliance on investment—and, more recently, on its trade surplus—to maintain high growth rates. In early June, American economist Paul Krugman publicly worried in a Bloomberg interview that China’s leaders were “bizarrely unwilling” to use more government spending to support consumer demand instead of production

The Global Drug Trade

• We bought everything needed to make $3 million of fentanyl.  All it took was $3,600 and a web browser   Reuters

  In this fascinating interactive report, Reuters investigative reporters showed that at the tap of a buyer’s smartphone, Chinese chemical sellers will air-ship fentanyl ingredients door-to-door to North America. Reuters purchased enough to make 3 million pills. Such deals are astonishingly easy – and reveal how drug traffickers are eluding efforts to halt the deadly trade behind the fentanyl crisis.

• Sky High: The Ensuing Narcotics Crisis in the Middle East and the Role of the Assad Regime   Observatory of Political and Economic Networks

  The staggering scale of recent narcotics seizures in the Middle East—and Arab Asia in particular—and their ties to state and non-state actors in Syria is drawing the world’s attention. The United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union have begun sanctioning Syrian and Lebanese suppliers as part of their response, with US legislators awaiting a holistic government response. Some countries in the region have recently considered the once-unthinkable: normalizing relations with the Assad regime, partly in the hope of cooperating directly with Damascus to curb the supply.

  This research documents the seizure over the last three years of over a billion pills of amphetamine-type drugs commonly known as ‘captagon’. It offers the most comprehensive attempt, to date, to understand the breadth and nature of the ongoing narcotics crisis and the networks sustaining much of their supply in Syria and to a lesser extent in Lebanon. While all drug types are observed, special attention is given to captagon.  Researchers constructed two databases specifically for this project. The first documents 1,251 drug seizures originating, transiting through, or reaching their destination in Arab Asian countries between 2016 and 2022. The richness of the data enables identification of how seizures vary by drug type, amount, countries of origin, countries of transit, and geolocation of seizures over time.  The second is a network database that maps actors involved in the supply of narcotics from Syria and Lebanon. It contains 712 nodes (441 individuals and 271 non-individuals) and a narrative detailing their roles and relationships within the network. The database, compiled from primary and secondary sources, is the most expansive documentation effort on the subject to date.

Economics/Trade/Foreign Direct Investment

• The Bretton Woods Moment – and Its Necessary Replacement   Carnegie Endowment Working Group for Reimaging Global Economic Governance

  Despite a concatenation of shocks—a China shock in trade, the global (or North Atlantic) financial crisis, surges in migration, a global pandemic—the current architecture of global economic governance has persisted and demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability. Trade has not collapsed; financial integration recovered from the global financial crisis; the cross-border movement of people has resumed post-pandemic. The interwar decades of disintegration, nationalist isolation, and great power war have yet to be replicated. Rather than “deglobalization” or the collapse of the existing global order, institutions and integration appear to have reached a stable plateau. Nevertheless, this plateau risks further descent into disorder, albeit less from a concerted attack on that order than out of discontent with its failure to confront such urgent challenges as climate change effectively. Conflict over the current distribution of costs and benefits poses another threat to the status quo. 

• Low US Economic Confidence Steady  Gallup

  Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index registers -35 in July, stable compared with the past two months and consistent with the longer trend of negative public sentiment about the current and future American economy.  Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index did show improvement between November and March, gaining 20 points, but since then has slid back to where it was in December 2023. During President Joe Biden’s term, confidence has slumped to as low as -58 in June 2022 amid soaring inflation, the worst reading since the Great Recession in 2008 and early 2009.

• Trends in Competition in the United States: What Does the Evidence Show?  Carl Shapiro & Ali Yurukoglu/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Has the United States economy become less competitive in recent decades? One might think so based on a body of research that has rapidly become influential for antitrust policy. We explain that the empirical evidence relating to concentration trends, markup trends, and the effects of mergers does not actually show a widespread decline in competition. Nor does it provide a basis for dramatic changes in antitrust policy. To the contrary, in many respects the evidence indicates that the observed changes in many industries are likely to reflect competition in action. We highlight research that points to targeted interventions that can enable antitrust enforcement policy to better promote and protect competition. Throughout the paper, we identify open questions and opportunities for future research in the cross-industry evidence-at-scale paradigm, the industry-specific study paradigm, and their intersection.

Energy Policy

• Taking Stock 2024: US Energy and Emissions Outlook   Rhodium Group

  Every year, Rhodium Group provides an independent projection of future US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under current policy and expectations for economic growth, future fossil fuel prices, and clean energy cost and performance trends. In the ten years since we released our first Taking Stock report, the US has made progress on a path to decarbonization. In 2023, US GHG emissions were 18% lower than they were in 2005. In addition, policies enacted at all levels of government have never been stronger for achieving even deeper cuts to emissions, including the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), adoption of a suite of federal regulations aimed at driving down emissions, and ambitious state action. With all federal and state policies on the books as of June 2024, we estimate the US is on track to reduce its GHG emissions by 38-56% below 2005 levels in 2035, representing at least a doubling—and potentially as much as a four-times increase—from the pace of annual emissions abatement from 2005 to 2023. On the way to 2035, we find the US could reduce its emissions by 32-43% below 2005 levels in 2030. These emissions reductions under current policy are a measurable acceleration in mitigation even compared to our Taking Stock 2022 edition from just before the passage of the IRA, in which we found the US on track for a 24-35% reduction below 2005 levels in 2030. But they are not enough for the US to achieve its 2030 climate commitment under the Paris Agreement of a 50-52% reduction by 2030, or deep decarbonization by mid-century.

Great Power Arctic Strategy

• The High North – Important or Overlooked?     Janes Defense Group Podcast

  In this podcast, James Rands, senior Balkans and military capabilities analyst at Janes, joins Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to provide a deeper understanding of the High North, Arctic region.  With climate change likely to expose a northern sea route in the next decade or so and the potential abundance of natural resources, many countries will want to stake claim on this previously impenetrable region. Rands highlights the military capabilities required to operate in this challenging environment. They also discuss the important role open-source intelligence plays in providing early-warning indicators of activity and any escalation in tensions in what is likely to become a key global strategic area.

• Arctic Strategy 2024   US Department of Defense

  In a new report, the US Defense Department lays out a strategy to defend the Arctic.  In the introductory memo, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin states: “The United States is an arctic nation, and the region is critical to the defense of our homeland, the protection of the US national sovereignty, and our defense treaty commitments.  I am issuing this 2024 Arctic Strategy to guide the US Department of Defense in a concerted approach to preserve the Arctic as a stable region in which the US homeland remains secure and vital national interests are safeguarded.”

The Global Week Ahead

July 28 - August 4, 2024

Much of the world is focused on the Olympic Games in Paris this week, while summer holidays are beginning for many in the Northern Hemisphere.  But there are still plenty of important meetings and events happening this week around the world.

Asia will be a massive focus for the U.S. this coming week as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin conduct two separate “2+2” meetings – the first with their counterparts in Japan and the second with their counterparts in the Philippines.  The two sets of meetings aim to bolster U.S. military alliances with the two countries significantly.  Before the US-Japan meetings, the U.S. Defense Department announced the very significant establishment of a new U.S. military command in Japan, one of the most important restructurings in the U.S. command structure in Asia in decades.   And then the week after next, Blinken and Austin will then host a 2+2 meeting with their Australian counterparts (August 6), further cementing the U.S.’ new enhanced security structure in the region.

Also this week, the European Union begins transferring the interest income from frozen Russian bank accounts to Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate and is likely to confiscate Western financial assets and securities held in special accounts in Moscow. 

However, the most significant events this week came from several of the G7 central banks.  The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rate adjustments—a likely 25-basis point cut.  The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also meeting this week to decide interest rates.  There is a good chance the Bank of Japan will raise rates while the Bank of England moves to cut rates.

Elsewhere on the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at the U.S. jobs report on Friday, and JOLTS and ADP figures will also be released earlier in the week.   In Europe, the Eurozone, Germany, and France release GDP figures and CPI reports this week.

Finally, returning to Asia, China releases PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI this week and will give some further clarity to the struggling Chinese economy. 

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Venezuela holds presidential elections.

• Peru celebrates its Independence Day, with President Dina Boluarte scheduled to give a speech to Congress.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States and Japan will hold a 2+2 meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara in Tokyo, Japan.   The meetings will focus on bolstering military cooperation between the US and Japan in the face of growing Chinese aggressive behavior in the region.  In advance of the meetings, the US Defense Department announced the creation of a new command structure in Japan, overseeing the more than 50,000 US troops in Japan and empowered to work more closely with the growing Japanese defense structure.

·       China’s Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will visit Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia to conduct the fourth round of shuttle diplomacy on the War on Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2

• Thailand Industrial Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni continues her state visit to China through July 31.  Meloni, who also is the chair of the G7 this year, is seeking to improve relations with China after she pulled Italy out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend a naval parade in St. Petersburg to celebrate Russia's Navy Day. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste José Ramos-Horta will pay a state visit to China through July 31.

• The South African Development Community will host the 7th Annual Industrialization Week in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Sudan

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hosts a foreign ministers’ meeting – the 8th summit – of the Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in Tokyo.  The ministers are expected to oppose the growing militarization of the South China Sea, pledge further collaboration on preventing cyber-attacks in the region, and discuss the establishment and maintenance of resilient supply chains. The gathering will follow meetings between the Japanese, U.S., and South Korean defense ministers on Sunday and will set the stage for a Quad leaders' meeting in India later this year.

·       Today is Wallis and Futuna Territory Day, celebrating the islands becoming a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia PPI (June)

·       Singapore Export Prices (June)/ Import Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United Kingdom's new Labour Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will unveil a Treasury analysis highlighting the fiscal situation her government has inherited from its Conservative predecessor, and she will announce reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework.  She is expected to accuse the former Conservative Party of causing a £20 billion shortfall to the government budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)/ CBI Distributive Trades (July)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Chilean President Gabriel Boric will visit the United Arab Emirates seeking new investment and economic ties between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        IMF conducts its third review in advance of issuing a third tranche worth $820 million of an Egypt loan.

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (June)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       USA Redbook (July/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The US and Philippines hold a 2+2 dialogue (foreign ministers and defense ministers), in Manila to discuss mutual diplomatic and security issues.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with their Filipino counterparts Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro and Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo. The meeting comes on the heels of similar talks between Manila and Tokyo in early July. The discussions aim to bolster the U.S.-Philippine alliance, which has deepened significantly under the Marcos Jr. administration as the country shifts its foreign policy closer to Washington.

·       EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell visits Hanoi, where he will meet Vietnamese authorities to discuss foreign affairs, security and climate policy.

·       Today is Vanuatu Independence Day, marking the day in 1980 when the country gained its independence from the joint rule of the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines PPI (June)

·       Australia Building Permits Prel (June)/ Private House Approvals Prel (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is expected to testify in the corruption probe of his wife, Begona Gomez.  The Spanish First Lady has been accused of influence peddling and corruption after a complaint was filed by an anti-graft NGO.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (July)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

·       Greece PPI (June)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (June)/ Composite Economic Index (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision.

·       The Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/26)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/ Fed Press Conference

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada GDP (May)

·       Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and the co-chairs of the US-Singapore Critical and Emerging Technology Dialogue in Singapore.  The purpose of the meeting is to “advance initiatives to strengthen ties between our innovation ecosystems and reduce barriers to collaboration while protecting national security.  The growing bilateral discussion regarding critical and emerging technologies further underscores the importance of the U.S.-Singapore strategic partnership in facilitating a free, open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient Indo-Pacific region.”

·       Myanmar’s military dictatorship may call an extraordinary National Defense and Security Council meeting to decide whether to extend the state of emergency (which is renewed every six months).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision.

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs to Applications ratio (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Industrial Production Prel (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

·       New Zealand Building Permits (June)/ ANZ Business Confidence (July)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ Housing Credit (June)/ Inflation Rate Q2/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ Retail Sales (June)/ CPI Q2/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (July)

·       China NBS General, Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       India Infrastructure Output (June)/ Government Budget Value (June)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Indonesia M3 Money Supply (July/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Hungary PPI (June)

·       France Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (May)/ Inflation Rate Prel (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Prel (July)

·       Spain Current Account (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

·       Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

·       Ukraine Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (June)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

Thursday, August 1, 2024

Global

·       Sierra Leon assumes the chair of the UN Security Council.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        The US Democratic Party begins a virtual roll call vote window through August 7 to choose nominees for president and vice president.

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

·       US tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and their batteries, computer chips, and medical products, go into effect.

·       Guyana celebrates Emancipation Day, marking the abolition of slavery by the British Empire in 1833.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/27)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders & Prices (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/31)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates China Army Day, marking the founding of the People’s Liberation Army in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nikkei is reporting an estimated 40 million to 50 million Thai citizens will be able to register for that country's long-awaited digital wallet handout. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's signature election pledge faced delays for nearly a year as the government sought legal ways to finance the 500-billion-baht ($14 billion) program. A distribution date in the fourth quarter has yet to be set.

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Commodity Prices (July)

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/27)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (June)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union will transfer the tranche of interest earned in frozen Russian accounts to Ukraine.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate.

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the start of the Warsaw Uprising, when the city’s residents tried to oust the German army before it was occupied by the advancing Soviet forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its interest rate decision.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will participate in an online Q&A on the UK economy and bank policies. 

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ New Car Sales (July)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Greece HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigerian youth activists are planning a nationwide anti-government protest through August 10.  Calling it “Ten Days of Rage,” the protests are over ongoing economic hardships.

·       Today is Benin Independence Day, celebrating the country’s independence from France in 1960.

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Friday, August 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)/ Gross Fixed Investment (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Factory Orders (June)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (July)

·       Australia Home Loans (June)/ Investment Lending for Homes (June)/ PPI Q2

·       Thailand Business Confidence (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/26)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia, commemorating the Illinden Uprising and the first assembly of the anti-fascist Assembly for the National Liberation of Macedonia in the midst of World War II in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania PPI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       France Industrial Production (June)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Italy Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

·       Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, August 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A six-month cease-fire between Colombia and the rebel group National Liberation Army is set to expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Cooks Islands Constitution Day, celebrating their independence from European colonial rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 29 - August 2, 2024

The Dog Days of Summer in Washington Haven’t Quite Started Just Yet

Last week we said Washington’s financial regulatory world was entering the dog days of summer.  That might have been a bit premature.  First, we saw former President Donald Trump address the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, where he promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and create a “strategic national bitcoin stockpile.”   Financial regulation has now officially entered the 2024 presidential election debate!

Then, we saw the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued a request for information from the industry on bank’s partnerships with fintech firms.  Specifically, the regulators want to hear about how banks are maintaining “effective risk management practices.”  They also separately issues a joint-statement reminding banks’ of the potential risks of working with third-party companies that provide bank despot products and services.

The same trio of bank regulators also issued a notice requesting comment on interagency efforts to reduce regulatory burdens, focusing on consumer protection, the role of directors, officers, and employees, and money laundering.

Also this past week, FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill stepped up and made a public call for scrapping the pending bank capital rules and starting over from scratch and not simply making modifications to the draft. He went on to argue the Basel-mandated rules, as currently drafted, may not be legal.  Hill then presented a vision for a number of important bank regulatory issues.  If former President Trump is elected, Hill is seen as his choice as FDIC Chair.

The Federal Courts were also active this past week as a federal judge in Texas stayed the long-suffering Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule.

Looking at the week ahead, the FDIC is holding an Open Meeting to consider new rules on industrial loan companies and brokered deposits. And the SEC is holding a Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee. 

Up on Capitol Hill, the Senate Agriculture Committee is tentatively planning to mark up a crypto regulatory bill while the Senate Banking Committee might vote on the nomination of Christy Goldsmith Romero to be FDIC Chair (much depends on whether recently convicted Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), a member of the committee, will show up to vote.  Following his recent federal bribery conviction, Menendez said he would resign.

But what will likely be the best event this week will be Capitol Account’s event in the Capitol Visitors Center. SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will participate in a fireside chat, giving great insights into the SEC’s agenda for the rest of the year and what to expect in the wake of the Chevron decision. You can watch it virtually, but you have to register, which you can do by clicking HERE.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing entitled “Tax Tools for Local Economic Development.”

• Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. –  The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Tourism, Trade, and Export Promotion Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Enabling Rural Businesses to Grow at Home While Competing Abroad."

• Tuesday, July 30, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Economic Policy Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Banning Noncompete Agreements: Benefits for Workers, Businesses, and the Economy.”

• Wednesday, July 31, TBD – The Senate Agriculture Committee is tentatively planning to hold a markup of Committee Chair Senator Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) draft crypto bill.

• Wednesday, July 31, TBD – Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is floating the idea of voting to advance FDIC Chair-nominee Christy Goldsmith Romero’s nomination.  However, with the pending resignation of Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ following his recent criminal conviction, the committee will be one Democratic vote shy, and at this point, it appears there are no committee Republicans known to support the nomination.  It is not clear if Menendez will show up or not.  Also likely to be included in the vote would be the advancement of the nominations of Caroline Crenshaw to be an SEC Commissioner and current CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson to be an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and Gordon Ito to be a member of the FSOC. 

House of Representatives

• The House is out for the month of August.  No events are scheduled at this time.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday & Wednesday, July 30 – 31 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days to discuss the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on July 31.

U.S. Treasury Department

• Tuesday, July 30, 9:00 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a closed meeting of the Debt Management Advisory Committee to discuss topics related to the economy, financial markets, Treasury financing, and debt management, followed by a written report of its recommendations from the committee.

• Thursday, August 1, 2:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department’s Advisory Committee on Risk-Sharing Mechanisms meets.  The agenda for the meeting includes: Presentations addressing the Federal Insurance Office's partnership with the National Science Foundation to establish a new Industry-University Cooperative Research Center to provide research, analysis, and thought leadership to improve the insurance sector's modeling and underwriting of terrorism and catastrophic cyber risks; Hear a presentation by FIO staff on the 2024 Report on the Effectiveness of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program and the International Forum of Terrorism Risk (Re)Insurance Pools Conference hosted by FIO in April 2024; and Roundtable discussion by the members to provide industry insight on the effectiveness of TRIP, terrorism insurance market conditions, ideas for private market risk-sharing mechanisms that can offset losses arising from acts of terrorism, and the administration of TRIP.

Department of Commerce

• Thursday, August 1, 2:00 p.m. – The Commerce Department Economic Development Administration holds a virtual meeting of the National Advisory Council on Innovation and Entrepreneurship to discuss strategies to unlock sources of capital to leverage federal investments and designations, including current and future tech hubs, aligned with the Commerce Department's existing work in this area.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds its Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting.  The Committee will continue its exploration of ways to expand access to early-stage capital raising and support underrepresented emerging fund managers, the Committee will explore recent changes to the SBIC program designed to increase access and diversify funding for small businesses, start-ups, and fund managers.  The full agenda can be accessed HERE.

• Thursday, August 1, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

• Wednesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors will hold an Open Session.  You can find the full agenda HERE, which includes proposed rulemakings on brokered deposits, parent companies of Industrial Banks, and several other items.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Thursday, August 1, 10:00 a.m. – The OCC, along with the FDIC and New York Department of Financial Services, are holding a Bankers Roundtable entitled “Access to Financial Products and Services for the Unbanked and Underbanked” in New York.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Wednesday, July 31, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC holds a hearing before the FTC’s Administrative Law Judge regarding the proposed merger of Kroger Company and Albertsons Companies.

• Thursday, August 1, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC holds an Open Commission meeting to discuss Pharmacy Benefit Managers Report and their impact to access and affordability of medicines and then receive a presentation on Military Consumer Production.

• Thursday, August 1, 3:30 p.m. – The FTC and the Department of Justice Antitrust Division will jointly hold a the first public hearing of the Strike Force on Unfair and Illegal Pricing.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Tuesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – Capitol Account holds an event on investment advisers’ rules sponsored by Charles Schwab. SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda participates in a fireside chat, An industry panel discussion features Jon Beatty, Head of Advisor Services, Charles Schwab; Karen Barr, President, Investment Adviser Association; James J. Burns, CEO/President, JJ Burns & Company and Stephen Johnson, Chief Counsel Wealth & Asset Management Legal Group, Charles Schwab. Location: Capitol Visitor Center, room SVC 215. Pre-registration is required for people without congressional identification. Click here to sign up.

• Tuesday, July 30, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Debanking: The Newest Threat to Free Speech and Religious Liberty?"

• Wednesday, July 31, 6:00 p.m. – Axios holds a discussion on "Investment for Improvement," focusing on "how corporate investment in the economy can impact and reflect broader market trends, affect long-term inflation and drive financial growth for specific sectors and consumers."

• Wednesday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – The Competitive Enterprise Institute holds a "Lunch Briefing: De-Weaponization of Financial Regulation."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

July 26 -28, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Latin America

• A Second Independence Day? Scenarios for Venezuela’s July 28 Election  Ryan Berg & Alexandra Winkler/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Expectations for Venezuela’s upcoming elections on July 28 are astronomical. For many Venezuelans, the day represents something akin to a second independence day. Much is at stake: liberty, respect for fundamental human rights, economic and social prosperity, and the reunification of Venezuela’s many separated families, given that nearly 8 million have fled the Maduro regime’s authoritarian grip and unprecedented economic mismanagement.

• Meet the Candidates: Venezuela   Americas Quarterly

  Venezuela’s dictatorship is expected to hold a single-round election for president and vice president on July 28. Most observers do not expect the vote to be free or fair. The ruling PSUV party officially named President Nicolás Maduro as its candidate on January 25. After the nation’s Supreme Court barred leading opposition figure María Corina Machado from participating, Venezuela’s opposition coalition backed Edmundo González Urrutia as its candidate. We will occasionally update this page to reflect developments in the campaigns. AQ also asked a dozen nonpartisan experts on Venezuela to help us identify where each candidate stands on two spectrums: left versus right on economic matters and a more personalistic leadership style versus an emphasis on institutions. We’ve published the average response with a caveat: Platforms evolve, and so do candidates.

• What the U.S. Election Means for Latin America   Americas Quarterly

  Immigration, drug trafficking, nearshoring, and infrastructure investment are all important issues in this election—and they all touch on Latin America.  Former advisers from the Trump and Biden administrations write on the impact another term for their onetime boss would have on the region. 

Africa

• Who Speaks for Africa at COP?  Power and Politics at the UN Climate Negotiations   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Although all of Africa contributes less than 4 percent to global greenhouse gases annually, many African countries are especially vulnerable to extreme weather events and are unable to adapt to long-term changes in the climate.1African countries experience an average of 5 to 15 percent GDP loss per year due to climate change.2 But when the countries who are party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) come together at their annual summit (the Conference of Parties, or COP) to discuss how to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change, who speaks for the continent of Africa?

•   The Forgotten War in Congo   Foreign Affairs

  Last year, the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo turned 30. It is a grim milestone, and one that received almost no global attention. The silence isn’t a surprise. Since its inception, the war in Congo has excelled at evading international recognition. Few people noticed when the M23 Movement, the region’s biggest militia, rounded up and executed 171 civilians in November 2022. The world was quiet when Doctors Without Borders declared that they had treated 25,000 survivors of sexual violence in Congo last year. Almost no one outside Africa remembers that, in June, an armed Islamist group massacred 41 people in Congo’s northeast. Today, more than seven million Congolese are displaced, more than at any other time in history, and yet the war still barely features in global media. The New York Times has written 54 articles about Congo in the past twelve months, including ones on the environment and the country’s recent election. It has, by contrast, run 2,969 articles on Ukraine.

The Middle East

• In lawless Gaza, cigarette smuggling fuels attacks on aid trucks   Washington Post

  A black market for cigarettes is booming in the besieged Gaza Strip, a window into the lawlessness and desperation in the enclave nine months into Israel’s war against Hamas. The illicit cigarettes, one of Gaza’s last forms of currency, are hidden inside hollowed-out watermelons and boxes of diapers, smuggled on trucks through Israeli-controlled crossings, and sold for as much as $30 apiece.  Gangs lie in wait along the anarchic road in southern Gaza that runs through military zones, ransacking trucks in search of cigarettes, humanitarian officials say. Once cigarettes reach the open market, Hamas authorities try to take a cut of the sales through fines and extortion, according to traders and civilians. The black market is fueling attacks on humanitarian trucks, hampering desperately needed aid deliveries as relief officials warn of famine.

China 

• The Limits of the China Chip Ban    Foreign Affairs

  In 2022, the Biden administration rolled out export controls to prevent Beijing from obtaining advanced semiconductors and the equipment to produce them domestically. The stated objective of these restrictions was to deny China the cutting-edge AI capabilities it could use to modernize its nuclear and conventional weapons. However, these measures may also protect the United States’ technological and economic edge over China. Although leadership in AI is not officially stipulated as an aim of the restrictions, U.S. officials have regularly asserted that it is central to the country’s competitive economic advantage, which in turn advances its national security. However, the chip controls will probably fall short of achieving either outcome. They are unlikely to substantially slow Beijing’s military modernization, much of which can be accomplished using older legacy chips. Where cutting-edge AI chips are needed, the Chinese military can use previously imported chips, smuggled chips, and domestically designed and produced chips. By impeding China’s ability to develop and deploy AI throughout its economy, the export restrictions could slow China’s growth and curb its competitiveness, thereby helping the United States stay ahead.

• China’s Global Activity: Building Grabs the Spotlight from Owning  Derek Scissors - American Enterprise Institute

  China’s documented global investment shrank modestly in the first half of 2024. Auto and parts production led. However, the dollar value of construction activity surged year over year, topped by building power plants and refineries.  The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reports only good news for investment. Its post-COVID numbers are nearing the 2015–16 peak, which saw controversy around the world. There is no new controversy, suggesting investment is different now—likely stuck in offshore financial centers.  Chinese investment in the US was tiny in the first half of 2024. There are no equivalent figures for American investment in China and no sense of how much money supported Chinese technology or supply chains. Without this knowledge, the US cannot properly compete. 

Map & Chart of the Week

More Than 650,000 Russians have Emigrated Since the Start

of the Ukraine War. Did They Go?

The Bell, an independent Russian news outlet, conducted a study into the exodus of Russian’s following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  According to their work, the Bell estimates a minimum of 650,000 people have left Russia – a number which is growing and creating a significant political and economic headache for the Kremlin and the Russian Central Bank as tensions in the labor market grow.

But where did all those Russians go?  Below is a map and chart breaking it all down.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 22 - 26, 2024

The Dog Days of Summer are upon us in Washington.  There is not much happening this coming week regulatory-wise, but we would note there are some interesting congressional hearings. 

Of particular note, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI) will hold a hearing on Zelle Fraud.  Senior executives from Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, and Wells Fargo will testify about what exactly happened.  PSI is an unusual Subcommittee in Congress with special powers to conduct deep investigations into virtually anything.  But is long has been a source of intense investigations into financial services related fraud, its hearings can and often do lead to criminal indictments down the road from the US Department of Justice.

Also, this week, the Senate Banking Committee is holding a hearing about “Advancing National Security through Export Controls, Investment Security, and the Defense Production Act.”  While a good piece of the hearing will likely focus on the national security aspects of trade with China, sanctions on Russia, and other related issues, we think there is a good chance this will quickly veer into aspects of Nippon Steel’s ongoing bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  Considering the Chair of the Banking Committee is Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), a fierce critic of the deal who is in the re-election battle of his career, we cannot see him not taking the opportunity to speak out against the deal.

Finally, we will be watching FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill speak this week at the American Enterprise Institute on proposed changes to banking regulation and resolution policies. If President Trump is elected in November, many see Hill as the natural choice to be the next FDIC Chair, so this could be a preview of his agenda in 2025.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, July 23, 3:30 p.m. – The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations holds a hearing on Zelle fraud, featuring executives from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. 

·       Thursday, July 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Advancing National Security through Export Controls, Investment Security, and the Defense Production Act.”

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing on "Financial Conditions in Farm Country."

·       Tuesday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “AI Innovation Explored: Insights into AI Applications I Financial Services and Housing.”

·       Wednesday, July 24, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Wasteful Spending and Inefficiencies: Examining DoD Platform Performance and Costs."

·       Wednesday, July 24, 10:30 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "Housing Solutions: Cutting Through Government Red Tape."

·       Thursday, July 25, 8:30 a.m. – The House Agriculture Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Reauthorizing the CFTC: Stakeholder Perspectives."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, July 25, 12:00 p.m. – The Securities and Exchange Commission Office of Minority and Women Inclusion holds a virtual discussion with SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, July 23, 9:30 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver the keynote address at the USDA Advisory Committee in Tarrytown, New York.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Wednesday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill will speak at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on "Proposed Changes in Bank Regulatory and Resolution Policies."  

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

 Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Wednesday, July 24, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "The Evolution of European Banking Supervision. “Claudia Buch, Chair of the European Central Bank Supervisory Board, will speak.

• Wednesday, July 24, 8:00 a.m. – The Atlantic Council holds a conference entitled “The Atlantic "Shaping the Global Economy: From Food Security to Digital Transformation.”

• Wednesday, July 24, 1:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies Corporations, Securities & Antitrust Practice Group holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1 p.m., on "FTC Negative Option, Junk Fee, and Commercial Surveillance Rulemakings - Weighing Costs, Benefits and Litigation Risk in a Post-Chevron Environment."

• Wednesday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a discussion on "Proposed Changes in Bank Regulatory and Resolution Policies."  FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill will speak.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

July 21 - 28, 2024

The coming week will likely be the decisive week for the political future of President Joseph Biden.  Following weeks of growing calls from Democratic members of Congress and other Party leaders for him to withdraw from the 2024 presidential election, it appears the make-or-break moment is upon him and the nation.   Reports in recent days have swung wildly from “He’s going to announce today and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris” to “He’s going to withdraw and let there be an open process” to “He’s not getting out no matter what – he’s in this to win.”  No one seems to know exactly what the President is thinking or intends to do.   The Democratic Presidential Convention begins in Chicago on August 19, so pressure literally grows by the day on the President to withdraw as more and more Democrats demand he stand down.

Elsewhere around the world this week, Venezuela holds presidential elections.  Current autocratic President Nicholas Maduro has been badly harassing his political opponents – arresting many of them in the weeks leading up to the election on Saturday.  And widespread fraud and vote rigging by Maduro is expected.  Nevertheless, Maduro is trailing in the polls as the country has seen massive rallies in support of opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who is the proxy candidate for Maria Corina Machado whom Maduro banned from running.

In Beijing this week, Chinese officials are going to try to hammer out a deal between the long-competing Palestinian Hamas and Fatah factions to help broker a deal in Gaza.  While the odds of an actual rapprochement between the two groups is unlikely, it is considered a small step in the right direction and shows China’s determination to increasingly play a global role. 

Meanwhile, in Paris this week the Summer Olympics begin as the French Parliament continues to argue how to form a new working government following elections earlier this week. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, the G20 Finance and Central Bank Governors will gather in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  Not much is expected to come from the meetings as there is too much disagreement on issues such as Ukraine, Gaza, the seizing of Russian assets, and other hot-button issues.

Also this week, the People’s Central Bank of China meets on rates as does the Bank of Canada.  The US Federal Reserve goes quiet in advance of the Federal Markets Open Committee meeting the week after next.   Markets are watching the Q1 GDP figures being released on Thursday and the PCE inflation release on Friday, both which will be influential on the Fed’s decision to begin cutting or not.

In Europe, Germany, Italy, and the Eurozone consumer confidence numbers are released.

Below are all the other major political and economic events and reports we are tracking this week:

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer visits Beijing for high-level talks.  China is seeking to broaden their relations with the Maldives in an effort to counter US relations in the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Officials from Palestinian Fatah, Hamas factions visit Beijing for talks moderated by the Chinese government.  The two competing factions will seek to bridge the gap between them to help bring peace to the Gaza Strip.

·       Israel will begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews for military service.  The highly controversial order comes after the Israeli Supreme Court recently ruled, they could be drafted. Traditionally, ultra-orthodox Jews do not serve, and it is expected many draftees will resist.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 22, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council, chaired by Russia this week, is scheduled to hold a briefing on Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may meet with President Biden at the White House if the President tests negative for COVID (which he tested positive for last week).

·       U.S. Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle appears before the House Oversight Committee on Trump assassination attempt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Economic Activity (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Inflation Rate (June)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan begins its annual military drills, the first under the new administration of President Lai Ching-te. His defense minister, Wellington Koo, has emphasized making the exercises more practical and less performative, amid growing concern over Chinese pressure and the threat of an invasion. The exercise will run for five days through Friday.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. will give his 3rd State of the Nation Address to the country.  He is expected to heavily focus on growing tensions with China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       China People’s Central Bank decision on Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ 5Y (July)/ FDI (YTD) (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (Q2)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (June)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (June)

·       India Union Budget 2024

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and hear from the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba via videoconference. They will also discussion the situation in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through July 23.

·       The Farnborough International Airshow begins in England and runs through July 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the AFME seminar entitled “The Future Bank of England Balance Sheet – Managing Its Transition Towards a New System for Supplying Reserves” in London.

·       Greece Current Account (May)

·       Poland Retail Sales (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)/ Inflation Expectations (July)/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (June)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit (May)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

 Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Redbook (July/20)/ Existing Home Sales (June)/ Richmond Fed Services & Manufacturing Index (July)/ Money Supply (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s new government delivers its new annual budget to Parliament.  It is expected there will be significant new welfare programs for the poor and more funding requests for infrastructure.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (June)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Phillip Lane gives  opening remarks at the joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review "Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (July)/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (July)/ Overnight Lending Rate (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (June)/ Composite Economic Index (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the UN Mission to Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu gives joint address to Congress.   A large number of Democratic members of Congress are expected to skip the speech in protest over the situation in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       U S Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give pre-recorded video opening remarks at the Advance Together: Celebrating the Achievements of Texas Community Partnerships, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas, Texas

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/19)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (June)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (June)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ New Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/19)/ Building Permits Final (June)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (July)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (June)/

·       Chile PPI (June)

·       Paraguay PPI (June)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Final (Q2)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (June)

·       India HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July/12)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (June)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through July 25.

Economic Reports/Events -

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President  Luis de Guindos chairs Session 5 at joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review "Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel "The global 'new normal': fragmentation, tensions, and uncertainty" at joint conference of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and IMF Economic Review "Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in an  online conversation with Nicolas Véron at Financial statements series organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (August)/ HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (May)

·       Euro Area / HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

·       Spain PPI (June)

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (May)/ Industrial Production (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit Growth (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States will host the Africa Trade and Economic Cooperation Forum in Washington, D.C., through July 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (June)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, July 25, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors gather in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to meet through July 26.  Ahead of the meeting, Brazil – which is chairing the G20 this year – announced a short joint statement was hammered out by the attending countries focusing on alignment on inequality, poverty, and climate change.  Beyond that, there is expected to be not much agreement among the attendees.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.         

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (July)/ Federal Tax Revenues (June)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/20)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q2)/ GDP Price Index (Q2)/ Core PCE Prices (Q2)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/20)/ Real Consumer Spending (Q2)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/19)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/24)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Vientiane, Laos.  They are expected to discuss growing tensions with China as well as the situation in Myanmar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (July)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q2)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (July/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/20)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Index (May)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Car Sales (June)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends the Paris Summit 2024 Sport for Sustainable Development (S4SD) "Faster, Higher, Stronger – Together For a Better Future" in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain Car Production (June)/ CBI Business Optimism Index (Q3)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

·       France Business Confidence (July)/ Business Climate Indicator (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/19)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (July)/ Ifo Current Conditions (July)/ Ifo Expectations (July)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Greece Total Credit (June)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (June)

Friday, July 26, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Finance and Central Bank Governors Meeting being held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil concludes.

·       The 2024 Summer Olympics begin in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Wholesale Sales Prel (June)/ Budget Balance (May)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (June)/ Net Payrolls (June)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (June)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (June)/ Personal Income & Spending (June)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/26)

·       Venezuela Presidential Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Japan Tokyo Core CPI (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (July)/ Coincident Index Final (May)/ Leading Economic Index Final (May)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel (Q2)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (June)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July/12)/ Deposit Growth (July/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (June)

·       France Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate (Q2)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Italy Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuela holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezashkian will be sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

July 14 - 21, 2024

It will be an extraordinary week ahead.  As the US and the rest of the world struggle to understand the attempted assassination attempt on former President Trump, the Republican Presidential Convention begins Monday, and we will learn in the next day or two who will be Trump's Vice-Presidential running mate.  Meanwhile, we expect that US Democratic leaders will continue to discuss and pressure President Biden to withdraw from running for President – something the President has made clear he has no intention of doing.  Polling data will be poured over perhaps more intensely than ever before, mainly to see the downstream implications for House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.   We will be writing separately about all of this over the week as the event develops.

Meanwhile, in Beijing, the Chinese Communist Party convenes for their long-awaited Third Plenum meetings.  Markets will mainly focus on what is said and decide how to further stabilize the Chinese economy in the wake of the ongoing real estate crisis and economic challenges.   Also, in Asia this week, the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting will be held in Tokyo, Japan.  Leaders will participate in the three-day summit-level meeting to discuss climate change and fisheries, but China's growing military presence in the region and impact on security and trade will be addressed.

In Europe, the new EU Parliament gets underway, formally organizes itself, and officially names Ursula von der Leyden as President for a second term.  In London, King Charles gives the King's Speech to Parliament, laying out the legislative agenda of newly elected Prime Minister Kier Starmer and the Labor Party majority.  And in Paris, the French National Assembly meets for the first time since the elections to attempt to hammer out some sort of coalition arrangement and pick a new prime minister.  It is likely to be a prolonged and messy effort.

Looking at the global radar screen this week, markets are watching the European Central Bank meeting to see if the central bank moves to lower rates again—which most economists are not expecting.  Also, in Europe, the UK releases inflation figures, Germany publishes PPI figures, and as mentioned above, King Charles' speech will lay out the UK's economic agenda going forward.

Looking to Asia, China releases its Second-Quarter GDP, and Japan publishes its CPI print.   In the US, Fed Chair Jay Powell participates in a fireside chat with Carlyle Group Founder and Chair David Rubinstein (a terrific interviewer!) to discuss the economy and likely shed more light on when the Fed will begin to move on cutting rates.

Below is our comprehensive weekly laying out all the other key geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China and Russia hold joint naval exercises code-named “Exercise Joint Sea-2024” at the military port of Zhanjiang in South China’s Guangdong Province.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party of China Third Plenum/ PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 15, 2024

Global

·       The Olympic flame arrives in Paris in advance of the Summer Olympics.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Republican Party National Convention begins in Milwaukee, Wisconsin through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Jay Powell participates in a conversation with David M. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in session, “The Bull, the Bear, and the Banker" before the Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2024.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (May)/ Wholesale Sales Final (May)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July) / NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee gathers to hold the Third Plenum meeting.  The four-day event will offer a window on how Beijing plans to address the country's persistent property crisis, weak consumer demand and fading growth prospects. This particular meeting has a history of launching major economic initiatives -- including Deng Xiaoping's "reform and opening up" in 1978 -- but many analysts are tempering expectations.  The meeting is expected to outline key policy initiatives to revitalize both consumer and business confidence and address the continued large drag from the property sector. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)

·       China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ NBS Press Conference/ Communist Party of China Third Plenum

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       India WPI Food Index (June)/ WPI Fuel (June)/ WPI Inflation (June)/ WPI Manufacturing (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q2

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the economic and budgetary situation in the euro area and the fiscal policy stance for 2025.  The chairman of the European Fiscal Board (EFB) Niels Thygesen is expected to present the recent EFB report on the fiscal stance of the euro area. The Eurogroup is also expected to adopt a statement on the fiscal stance for the euro area for 2025 ahead of the preparation of national budgets for next year.

·       The 15th Meeting of the EU-Jordan Association Council takes place in Brussels.  The session will be devoted to discussing bilateral relations, focusing on the implementation of the Association Agreement and the EU-Jordan new Partnership Priorities (2021-2027), which the Association Council adopted in 2022. During an informal lunch discussion, the Association Council will discuss political matters and notably regional and international issues.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will hold a targeted discussion on ways to improve the long-term viability of rural areas, with a focus on generational renewal and demographic aspects. Among the 'other business' items on the agenda, the Hungarian presidency will publicly provide the Council with information on the outcome of the BIOEAST policy forum on advancing research and innovation in Central and Eastern Europe held in Brussels on 4 July 2024.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through July 16 in Brussels. The meeting will concentrate on the decarbonization of the energy system. Related to this, the discussions will focus on issues such as the role of geothermal energy, the implementation of the 2030 energy policy framework and the role of the national energy and climate plans, a resilient, flexible, and integrated electricity system, and the contribution of the energy sector to the new competitiveness deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (May)

·       Hungary Construction Output (May)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Romania Current Account (May)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Final (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (May)/ Ecofin Meeting

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

·       Russia Building Permits (May)

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (June)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Rwanda holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Incumbent President Paul Kagame will likely secure a fourth term, with the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) likely to retain its majority in parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Global

·       G7 Trade Ministers meet in Reggio Calabria, Italy, through Wednesday.  The main themes will be responding to the tensions and frictions which interfere with global trade and potential economic growth, and to streamline international trade through reform of the World Trade Organization. The session with non-member countries and business leaders will also be held to pay attention to the crisis in the Red Sea, which affects international trading routes and supply chains around the world, including the Indo-Pacific region.

· The UN Security Council, chaired by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Multilateral cooperation in the interest of a more just, democratic, and sustainable world order. 

·       The IMF releases an updated World Economic Outlook with updated growth forecasts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The four-day Aspen Security Forum begins in Colorado.

·       Today is Amazon Prime Day, one of the largest online shopping events in the world. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives as speech entitled “Challenges Facing Economic Measurement and Creative Solutions” at the Economic Measurement Seminar hosted by the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (June)

·       USA Retail Sales (June) / Export Prices (June) / Import Prices (June)/ Redbook (July/13)/ Business Inventories (May)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/12)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting gets underway in Tokyo, Japan.  Leaders will participate in the three-day summit-level meeting to discuss climate change and fisheries.  Additionally, leaders will discuss the release of treated wastewater from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

·       Pakistan will observe a two-day public holiday for Ashura through July 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (June)/ Import Prices (June)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (May)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/16)

·       China Communist Party of China Third Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The first session of the new EU Parliament will begin. The constitution of the Parliament will be ratified, and a new President will be elected. Parliament’s first act after its constitution is to elect its President for the next two-and-a-half years (half the legislature). Eight members of parliament will be selected as tellers to oversee the election, held by secret paper ballot. To be elected, a candidate must win an absolute majority of the valid votes cast, i.e. 50% plus one. After the election of the President, MEPs will elect the rest of the members of Parliament’s Bureau: 14 Vice-Presidents and five Quaestors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Bank Lending Survey/ Balance of Trade (May)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at a Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Event with Governor Waller, Kansas City, Missouri.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give informal remarks on the economy before the Greater Prince George's Business Roundtable.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/12)/ Building Permits Prel (June / Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/12)/ Fed Beige Book/ Housing Starts (June)

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank releases its economic outlook report.

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)/ RBA Simon Speech

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (July)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)

·       China Communist Party of China Third Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Workers at Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports strike over Olympic bonuses, staffing.  The strike is expected to snarl the travel plans of an expected 350,000 travelers coming to Paris for the Olympics.

·       King Charles gives the King’s Speech at the Opening of the new parliament, laying out the new legislative agenda of new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labor Party majority.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Core Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI Output (June)/ PPI Input (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (June)/ CPI Final (June)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

·       Russia PPI (June)

·       Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (May)/ Total Credit (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 18, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Accountability and Reform” at the Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World hosted by the Dallas Reserve Bank in Dallas, Texas.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to give opening remarks before the "Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World" conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in fireside chat before the "Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World" conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (July)/ CB Leading Index (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/12)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/17)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)/ Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indonesia International Auto Show begins in Jakarta. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/13)

·       Australia Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ RBA Bulletin/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The new French National Assembly meets for the first time following the recent elections. They will seek to find some sort of agreement on a new prime minister.

·       EU parliament votes on new European Commission mandate for Ursula von der Leyen, securing her second term.

·       There will be a meeting of the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace, England.  Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosts the event where more than 50 European leaders plus the Presidents of the European Council, European Commission, and European Parliament will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council holds a monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference following the meeting.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech entitled “Preparing for liquidity stresses” at an ISDA event hosted by the law firm Linklaters in London.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (June)/ Construction Output (May)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Claimant Count Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (June)/ Employment Growth (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/12)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (June)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa’s Parliament begins its first session under its unprecedented coalition.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

Friday, July 19, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organizations in maintaining international peace and security: the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board, the US Treasury, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency hold a joint-virtual public meeting on the proposed acquisition by Capital One of Discover.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in "A New Era for Monetary Policy" panel before the BCRP-RBWC-IDB 15th Annual Conference: “The Rewiring of the Global Economy" organized by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC), and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give closing remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas/Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta "Exploring Conventional Bank Funding Regimes in an Unconventional World" conference.

·       Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/19)

·       Colombia Imports (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Canada Retail Sales (May)/ PPI (June)/ Raw Materials Prices (June)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (June)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will host a joint military exercise with France, Germany, and Spain through July 25.  This is the first time Japan has hosted the joint exercises with Spain and is part of the broader “Pacific Skies 2024” exercises.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q2

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q2

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q3

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/12)

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (June)

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Current Account (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Slovenia PPI (June)

·       Russia Current Account (May)

·       Slovakia Current Account (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (June)

Saturday, July 20, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro is holding a rally of farmers to help him strengthen efforts for agrarian reform in the country.  It is also Colombia’s Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 21, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Vientiane, Laos through July 27.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.