Recommended Weekend Reads

May 17 - 19, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Critical Minerals

• Mineral Demands for Resilient Semiconductor Supply Chains CSIS

  The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the principal strategic competitor of the United States. In addition to antagonism in other domains, this rivalry entails escalating technological competition. No country is technologically self-sufficient, but the United States’ reliance on China’s considerable market share in the critical minerals industry for semiconductor supply chains creates a dependency that turns a trade imbalance into a potential national security threat. Chips are ubiquitous in all modern technology, and their relevance and worth will only expand in the coming years. The countries that are able to secure their own supply chains for critical technologies will be in a position to write the rules of global economic governance for years to come.

  Americas

• The Woman Inheriting AMLO’s Revolution Foreign Policy

  Most Mexicans began to seriously entertain the idea that Claudia Sheinbaum could be Mexico’s first female president in December 2022, when her trademark slicked-back ponytail began to appear on billboards across the country. Paid for by legislators in Sheinbaum’s party, Morena, the signage was intended to make the former climate scientist and then-Mexico City mayor known nationwide.
  

• Mexico’s Post-Election Fiscal Reality Check   Americas Quarterly

  Mexico is three weeks away from one of its most consequential elections in recent history. Much is at play on June 2, as the outcome of this vote is likely to have economic and political implications that will shape the nation’s future for decades. Why is there so much at stake? From an optimistic perspective, the opportunity nearshoring brings to the country is likely to become more evident in the next six years, but only if the new administration manages to tackle the significant bottlenecks Mexico still faces in broad areas such as energy, infrastructure, security, water, human capital, and its regulatory environment. From a less upbeat vantage point, Mexico’s democracy could be at risk if the election results end up in a landslide.  Notwithstanding the result, no matter who wins the presidential race, the post-June 2 party will likely be short, as the current list of challenges—and inherent risks—the next president will face is probably the most fearsome in 25 years.
  

• War Has Changed. We Didn’t.  That Reality Will Cost Us  Hudson Institute’s Arsenal of Democracy Podcast

  War is rapidly changing. Countries like China are already moving force structure and planning toward a new type of conflict. Meanwhile, the United States overspends and delays the production of systems like aircraft carriers that could soon fall into the category of “a weapon that you can’t afford to lose.” The Sagamore Institute’s Dr. Jerry Hendrix joins the show to explain how the US and its industrial base can change course to prepare for future conflicts before a dangerous “comeuppance” shocks us into action.  This episode features Dr. Jerry Hendrix, a Senior Fellow at the Sagamore Institute.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Russia’s Murky Future”  The Foreign Affairs Interview Podcast

  The noted Russian scholar and biographer of Josef Stalin, Steven Kotkin,  gives a fascinating interview on what is going on inside Russia.  When Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the West quickly came together in support of Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared shakier than ever. Last summer, an attempted coup even seemed to threaten his rule. But today, Putin looks confident. With battlefield progress in Ukraine and political turmoil ahead of the U.S. election in November, there’s reason to think things are turning in his favor.

Australia

• Australia’s New Gas Strategy Makes for Flawed Foreign Policy The Interpreter

  The latest Australian federal budget, handed down on Tuesday night, pledges unprecedented support to making Australia a “renewable superpower”. Yet a new gas strategy that preceded it promises to keep Australia and its Asian energy partners tethered to this fossil fuel for decades. While fiscal commitments now favor Australia’s greener energy engagement, Canberra should wind back broader regulatory support to gas. This would quicken the timeframe in which Australia might provide for both the energy security needs of Asia and the climate security needs of the Pacific.

China

• China Has Gotten the Trade War it Deserves   The Atlantic

  A global trade war is starting, and China is at the center of it. A reckoning for Beijing’s economic model, which is designed to promote Chinese industry at the expense of the rest of the world, has long been coming. China’s trading partners have had enough. The result will be a wave of protectionism, with potentially dire consequences for both China and the global economy.

Global Financial Markets and Economics

• Emerging Threats to Financial Markets  RAND

  In early 2021, a freewheeling, freethinking group of investors on Reddit decided to flex some collective muscle. They plowed their money into GameStop, a video game retailer that several big hedge funds had bet against. The stock price shot up, some people made millions—and, to the delight of those on Reddit, the hedge funds had some very bad days.

Asymmetric Threats

• Contested Connectivity: Cyber Threats in the Asia-Pacific   International Institute for Strategic Studies

  Asia-Pacific countries are facing increasing numbers of state-backed hacking operations serving geopolitical and economic purposes. They are also getting better at conducting them. Domestic and foreign-policy ambitions are manifesting in the information space, where state-linked actors are contesting state adversaries, political opponents, and world views both overtly through activities such as defacement (hacking a target website and replacing its content with the hackers’ own message), and covertly, via disinformation operations. While basic cyber best practice is still out of reach for the least cyber-capable states, a couple of regional states could be considered amongst the most cyber capable globally. Forging a greater range of international partnerships between governments and industry is likely to boost the region’s resilience in cyberspace. Political will and geopolitical alignments will likely shape how that unfolds.

Demographics

• Birth Dearth or Baby Boom?   American Enterprise Institute

  Writing in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Greg Ip and Janet Adamy explored the possibility that the world’s population may peak and begin to fall far sooner than demographers have previously projected: “The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep the population constant. It may have already happened. Fertility is falling almost everywhere for women across all levels of income, education, and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.”

• Addressing Demographic Headwinds in Japan: A Long-term Perspective OECD

  Japan faces serious demographic headwinds. Under current fertility, employment, and immigration rates, the population would fall by 45% by 2100 and employment by 52%. Given the challenges of a shrinking and ageing population, the government has pledged to “create a children-first economic society and reverse the birth rate decline”. One priority is to strengthen the weak financial position of youth, which leads many to delay or forgo marriage and children. Making it easier to combine paid work and family is also critical so that women are not forced to choose between a career and children.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 10 - 12, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Americas

• Mexico and the United States Need to Talk About China Now  Foreign Policy

  Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is rarely shy about criticizing foreign governments—usually that of the United States or other Latin American nations. Yet in January, López Obrador published a video touting his “very good” relationship with the people and government of China during a meeting with Beijing’s ambassador to Mexico. This was no accident. The video came just one day after an explosive report by ProPublica on alleged narco money in López Obrador’s various presidential campaigns, a story that the Mexican president said was part of a media campaign against him by the U.S. government. His meeting with the Chinese ambassador was intended to send a message, but it was also part of a broader trend. During López Obrador’s sexenio, China’s political and economic activity in Mexico has grown significantly. With his successor taking office on Oct. 1, Mexico’s approach to relations with China could shift or continue on a path that is likely to increase tensions with Washington.

• The Wrath of Khan: How Antitrust Policy Can Undermine U.S. National Security  Center for Strategic & International Studies

  To give credit where it is due, today’s title comes from my colleague Jim Lewis, who is coauthor of a report CSIS released on May 3: “Beyond Economics: How U.S. Policies Can Undermine National Security Goals” This white paper describes a range of U.S. policies that appear to be at odds with our national security goals and makes six recommendations for reconciling the differences. The paper begins with an explanation of why technology, particularly critical and emerging technologies (CET), is essential to national security. Space does not permit repeating all of that here, but just think semiconductors, and you’ll get the picture. Our defense infrastructure depends on information and communications technology, and that is only going to become truer in the future.

• Colombia’s Uncertainty Is Sinking Investment and More   Americas Quarterly

  Rising interest rates and a corporate tax rate among the world’s highest help explain the massive drop in Colombia’s fixed investment—a 9% decline in real terms to represent only 17.8% of the nation’s GDP—but they are only part of the story. Increased economic and political uncertainty has also played a significant role as President Gustavo Petro faces a pivotal moment in his four-year term to get at least some of his key reforms approved by Congress.   To the increasing doubts stemming from the lengthy discussions of the structural reforms, the government has fanned more uncertainties by announcing controversial measures in strategic economic sectors while floating the idea of a new Constitution. All are having a compounded effect on both investment and Colombia’s growth prospects. On May 2, the OECD urged authorities to apply policies to revive investment while forecasting a meager GDP expansion of 1.2% for 2024.

• Investment in US factories has soared since the end of 2022  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Real business investment in manufacturing structures in the United States has risen sharply since the end of 2022. The amount of investment in this category in the first quarter of 2024 was about 80 percent higher than the amount at the end of 2022. “Industrial policy” legislation enacted in recent years likely helped fuel this sharp increase. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act and the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Act, both enacted in 2022, provided large subsidies for the renewable energy and semiconductor industries. Although investment in manufacturing structures represents a relatively small part of overall US economic activity, the recent increases in this category have boosted annualized GDP growth by about ¼ percentage point since the end of 2022. Notwithstanding high interest rates, other types of US business investment have also increased. Altogether, private business fixed investment has contributed about ½ percentage point to annualized real GDP growth since the end of 2022.

• The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies  National Bureau of Economic Research

  This study begin by examining determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks (size of issuing country’s economy and financial markets, ability of the currency to hold value, and inertia). But understanding the determination of reserve holdings probably requires going beyond the aggregate numbers, instead observing individual central bank behavior, including characteristics of the holding country (bilateral trade with the issuing country, bilateral currency peg, and proxies for bilateral exposure to sanctions), in addition to the characteristics of the reserve currency issuer. On a currency-by-currency basis, US dollar holdings are somewhat well explained by several issuer characteristics; but the other currencies are less successfully explained. It may be that the results from currency-by-currency estimation are impaired by insufficient sample size. This consideration offers a motivation for pooling the data across the major currencies and imposing the constraints that reserve holdings are determined in the same way for each currency. In this setting, most economic determinants enter with significance: economic size as measured by GDP, size of financial markets as measured by foreign exchange turnover, bilateral currency peg, and bilateral trade share. However, geopolitical variables (bilateral alliance, bilateral sanctions) usually do not enter with significance.

• Will the Dollar Ever Weaken?   Christopher Smart/OMFIF

  It goes up when things are good and it goes up when things are bad, so it’s a fair question to ask under what circumstances the US currency ever actually goes down. When everyone seems to accept that the Federal Funds rate will stay higher for longer, just what will it take to reverse an appreciation trend that is beginning to look more secular than cyclical? The short answer is that there are lots of things that could reverse the current trend. It’s just that very few of them seem likely anytime soon.

• Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates  Federal Reserve Board

  With the issuance of U.S. Treasury debt having risen substantially in recent years, the effect of government debt issuance on longer-term interest rates has come under renewed attention.  While government debt can affect economic outcomes in a variety of ways, its effect on interest rates is an important determinant of the consumption and savings decisions of households as well as the investment decisions of firms and hence of macroeconomic activity.  In this note, we study the role of expectations formation in influencing the relationship between government debt and longer-term interest rates.  While it is common to analyze the effects of government debt on interest rates in a dynamic setting under the assumption of full information, rational expectations, the realism of this assumption is questionable.  In particular, this assumption implies that economic decision makers know all possible future situations that will arise and can use that knowledge to formulate complete state-contingent plans into the distant future.  A key contribution that we make in this paper is to depart from this assumption and study the effects of government debt on interest rates when economic decision makers are ‘boundedly rational’ and only have limited foresight about future events.2  In particular, we adopt the approach of Woodford (2018) in which agents can only engage in sophisticated forecasting and planning out to a finite horizon.3  We embed this approach into the model of Li and Wei (2013), as it provides a simple relationship linking the future path of government debt to longer-term yields and is an empirically relevant model for the effects of the supply of government debt on longer-term interest rates.4  We illustrate how limited foresight attenuates the effect of the supply of government debt on longer-term interest rates.  Calibrating the model to recent empirical evidence implies that limited foresight diminishes the effects of government debt substantially relative to the benchmark of rational expectations. 

Indo-Pacific

• East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse: And How It Will Reshape World Politics  Foreign Affairs

  In the decades immediately ahead, East Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of depopulation, in which they will age dramatically and lose millions of people. According to projections from the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic Social Affairs, China’s and Japan’s populations are set to fall by eight percent and 18 percent, respectively, between 2020 and 2050. South Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12 percent. And Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated eight percent. The U.S. population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12 percent.

• Expanding the Tool Kit to Counter China's Economic Coercion Center for Strategic & International Studies

  China’s 40-year economic development has transformed it into one of the world’s largest economies and most powerful countries. Over the past 12 years, China has been increasingly willing to leverage its economic might to pressure countries to act in its interest. The United States and its allies and partners are not prepared to counter China’s economic coercion. This report identifies coercive sanctions the United States and allied policymakers can use to effectively compete with China in the economic domain and deter future economic aggression from Beijing.

• India’s Battleground State  Foreign Policy

  The biggest question about India’s ongoing national election is not if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) will win but rather by how much they will win. Modi’s deep popularity makes a third consecutive term very likely. But a few factors, including inflation and opposition to the BJP’s Hindu nationalism, could deprive the party of the supermajority that it seeks. The southern state of Karnataka is a battleground between the BJP and the Indian National Congress party, its main political opposition. Congress won big in Karnataka’s state election last year, picking up nearly 43 percent of votes. This underscores the challenges the BJP alliance faces to winning 400 seats of the 543 in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of Parliament—which would be a nearly 50-seat increase from its 2019 result.

Geoeconomics

• What’s Driving the Global Gold Rush?  Harold James/Project Syndicate

  A recent surge in the gold price is symptomatic of a changing world order and the onset of a new age of conflict and uncertainty. Governments and central banks have long viewed the precious metal as a potential source of monetary stability and economic security, and this time is no exception. Gold has returned to the international monetary system. Over 50 years ago, US President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window” (ended the dollar’s fixed-rate convertibility into gold), and the world moved on from its obsession with precious metals. A new era of fiat currency had begun. But now, fiat money is being challenged by fiscal worries and new technology (blockchains/distributed ledgers), and the price of gold has reached all-time highs above $2,400 per ounce.

The Global Week Ahead

The most significant event on our radar this week is the highly anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting, marking the 75th anniversary of Russia-China relations, holds immense importance as it is the first face-to-face interaction between the two leaders since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The discussions are expected to revolve around strategies to boost trade, particularly in light of the tightening sanctions on Russia and the potential for new bilateral energy deals.  Putin is keen on expanding natural gas and oil exports to China.  

The meeting comes as President Biden is expected to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and other goods. China is expected to issue retaliatory tariffs at some point, but it is unclear at this point what sectors will be hit and when. 

Also this week, we expect Israel to ramp up military pressure on Hamas in the Gaza city of Rafah despite President Biden’s decision to hold back on supplying particular military aid.  All indications strongly suggest Israel will not stand down despite Biden’s efforts.  Also in the region this week, 22 Arab leaders will meet in Bahrain for the annual Arab League Summit (and the first one in years in which Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has been invited back since the brutal Syrian Civil War), and the situation in Gaza will be the leading issue of discussion. 

Elsewhere in the world, a new Prime Minister takes office in Singapore, signaling a new era of leadership in the city-state as it further ascends as a leading financial center in the greater Indo-Pacific region.  

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will focus on the US CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday to get a better sense of the inflation threat.   Fed Chair Jay Powell will be in Amsterdam this week, speaking on a panel with other central bank chiefs, and we will be listening closely for his assessment of the economy.  

In Asia, China will release inflation data this coming Wednesday, along with retail sales and industrial production. Having seen more tepid economic reports last week and the threat of stagflation hitting China, markets will be keenly attentive to the coming reports.  Also in Asia this week, Japan will release Q1 GDP figures and its PPI report.  

Finally, in Europe, it is a fairly light reporting week. Markets will examine UK labor figures and note economic data from Germany.  

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week: 

Sunday, May 12, 2024 

Global

· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres begins an official visit to Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain for bilateral meetings and discussions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –s

· U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu will visit India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh through May 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India begins Phase 4 of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

·       The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held.  The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Yom Ha’atzmaut, otherwise known as Israel’s Independence Day, through May 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 13, 2024 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Yemen), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile hosts Chile Fintech Forum 2024 in Santiago.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting, Foreign Bankers’ Association, Amsterdam.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Communicating About Monetary Policy” at the Cleveland Fed Conference on Central Bank Communications, Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Growth and Change at Community Development Financial Institutions” at the Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in the discussion before the Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       Canada Building Permits MoM MAR

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations APR

·       Brazil Business Confidence MAY/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence APR

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence APR

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade MAR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN will hold its annual 21st ASEAN Regional Security Policy Conference in Laos through May 17.

·       South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing, China, through March 14.  It is the first time a South Korean foreign minister has visited Beijing in more than six years.  They are expected to talk about bilateral trade as well as arrange a trilateral meeting with Japan and the situation on the Korean peninsula.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI APR/ Food Inflation YoY APR/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence APR

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence APR

·       Malaysia Construction Output YoY Q1

·       India Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       China Vehicle Sales YoY APR/ Current Account Prel Q1

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  They will discuss outcomes of the recent G7 meeting in Italy, hear the biannual report of the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Board, the current stage of the euro area banking system, Euro-area competitiveness, and the EU capital markets union efforts.

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets in Brussels through May 14.  They will seek to approve conclusions on inclusive societies for young people, European and international policy agendas for children, youth and children’s rights, and the legacy of the European Year of Youth 2022.  On the following day, it will turn its attention to culture and audiovisual issues, with ministers seeking to approve conclusions on the rise of influencers as a part of the EU’s media ecosystem, as well as on ways to empower the cultural and creative sectors through data-driven audience development. They will also hold a policy debate on future-proofing the cultural and creative sectors in the age of artificial intelligence.

·       Georgia’s Parliament will begin the third reading of the controversial “Foreign Agents” bill.  More protests are expected nationwide in opposition to the bill, which is seen as being pro-Russian and a threat to the nation’s democracy.  They are focusing on a so-called “positive agenda” of mutual trade and energy matters, repairing cultural ties, and a long list of other items placed on the so-called positive agenda.

·       Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in  Ankara, Turkey. 

· Norway will host the heads of government from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Germany, which will meet for a summit in Stockholm, Sweden, through May 14.  They will discuss security policy and the situation in Ukraine.

·       Russia’s Duma will consider candidates for deputy prime minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI APR

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence APR

·       Turkey Current Account MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Serbia Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account MAR

·       Euro Area European Commission Spring Forecasts

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds the first round of parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1/ PPI YoY APR

·       Jordan Inflation Rate YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY APR

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay celebrates its Independence Day through May 15.  It commemorates the day in 1811 when they won their freedom from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index APR/ PPI APR/ Redbook YoY MAY/11, Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change MAY/10

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales MAR

·       Colombia Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade APR

·       Uruguay Industrial Production YoY MAR

·       Argentina Inflation Rate YoY APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand holds elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Export Prices YoY APR

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY APR/ Visitor Arrivals YoY MAR

·       Japan PPI YoY APR/ Machine Tool Orders YoY APR

·       Indonesia Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY APR

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economics and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The Council will seek a political agreement on a proposal to make the relief of excess withholding taxes faster and safer (FASTER). This initiative aims to help fight tax abuse and contribute to completing the EU capital markets union by encouraging cross-border investment.  They will also seek a political agreement on the value-added tax (VAT) in the digital age package. The package consists of three proposals that set out to tackle VAT fraud, support businesses and promote digitalization.  They will also discuss the Russian war on Ukraine and the broader economic impact on the EU.  Finally, they will discuss the challenges arising from rapidly the rapidly aging EU population.  The ministers will also exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

·       The seventh Copenhagen Democracy Summit will take place in Copenhagen, Denmark, through May 15.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the presidents of numerous EU countries will speak.   Also scheduled to speak are Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-te as well as US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

·       The 77th Cannes Film Festival opens, running until May 25. The honorary Palme d’Or award this year will go to Star Wars producer George Lucas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Governor Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the high-level scientific conference "Weichenstellungen für Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Wachstum" organized by the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill answers online questions on the economic outlook for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales

·       Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY/ ZEW Current Conditions MAY

·       Romania Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Current Account MAR

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate MAR/ Claimant Count Change APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change APR/ BoE Pill Speech/ Labour Productivity QoQ Final Q4

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY APR

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Spain Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY

·       Greece Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Poland Balance of Trade MAR/ Current Account MAR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Gold Production YoY MAR/ Mining Production YoY MAR/ Unemployed Persons Q1

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on Peace and Security in Africa [G5 Sahel].

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape” at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a fireside chat on the economy in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index MAY/10/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ CPI APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAY/10, NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows MAR/ Foreign Bond Investment MAR/ Overall Net Capital Flows MAR

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity MAR

·       Canada Housing Starts APR/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Final MAR

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ ISE Economic Activity YoY MAR

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate YoY MAR/ Unemployment Rate APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong steps down to be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the country’s former finance minister.

· Today is Buddha’s Birthday, celebrated by many Asian nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Wage Price Index YoY Q1

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Philippines Cash Remittances MAR

·       Indonesia Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       India M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/03/ Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY APR/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping through May 16.

·       The EU Financial Stability Review of the implications of artificial intelligence on financial stability is pre-released.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

·       Hungary Construction Output YoY MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

·       France Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

·       Turkey Budget Balance APR

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change YoY Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production YoY MAR

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices YoY MAR

·       Russia Building Permits MAR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Palestinians commemorate “Nabka Day” (“Catastrophe”) commemorating when 70,000 Arabs fled due to the creation of the State of Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Wholesale Prices YoY APR

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ GDP YoY APR

·       Israel Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Oman M2 Money Supply YoY MAR/ Total Credit YoY MAR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 17th German-Africa Energy Forum is being held in Hamburg, Germany, through May 16.

· The 11th Africa CEO Forum will bring together business leaders, investors, and policymakers from Africa and around the world to Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales YoY MAR

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend the Arab League Summit in Manama and will have remarks.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on “The Economic Impact of Higher Education and Healthcare Institutions" and participate in a conversation before the hybrid 2024 Anchor Economy Conference in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       USA Building Permits Prel APR/ Import & Export Prices APR/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index MAY/ Philly Fed Business Conditions MAY/ Capacity Utilization APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade MAR

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.  The exercises will combine land, sea, and air drills symbolizing the strengthening defense ties between the two nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Employment Change APR/ Participation Rate APR

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment MAY/11/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Stock Investment by Foreigners MAY/11/ Capacity Utilization MoM MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, gathers in Brussels for a meeting, also attended by the Ukrainian chief of defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Make UK Conference entitled “The current state of Britain’s Labour market.”

·       Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

·       Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review

·       Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ Balance of Trade MAR

·       Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report

·       Ireland Balance of Trade MAR

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10/ Auto Production & Sales YoY APR

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Arab League Summit will be held in Bahrain.  Among the invitees are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.  He had been excluded from the annual meetings since the start of the Syrian Civil War.  The Gaza War will be the primary issue for discussion as well as the situation in Yemen and Houthi attacks on international shipping.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, May 17, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Chile to meet with President Gabriel Boric for a State Visit to discuss South American integration.

·       Guatemalan President Arevalo visits Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrado.

·       Peru will host the ASEAN Trade Ministers in Arequipa, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Canada New Housing Price Index YoY APR/ Foreign Securities Purchases MAR

·       USA CB Leading Index MoM APR

·       Argentina Leading Indicator MoM APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand PPI Input and Output QoQ Q1

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate APR

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY APR/ Balance of Trade APR

·       China House Price Index YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ NBS Press Conference/ FDI (YTD) YoY APR

·       Indonesia Property Price Index YoY Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth YoY MAY/03/ Deposit Growth YoY MAY/03/ Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Banking Sector Industry Meeting organized by IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the annual ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement, held in partnership with the Office for National Statistics, at Alliance Manchester Business School.

·        

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production YoY Q1

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Great Britain BoE Mann Speech

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ CPI Final APR

·       Russia Current Account MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR

·       Belarus GDP YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves/ M3 Money Supply YoY APR

·       Ghana PPI YoY APR

Saturday, May 18, 2024 

Global

·       The 10th World Water Forum opens in Bali and runs through May 25.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives the Commencement Speech at the University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections.  Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

·       President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony.  Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 13 - 20, 2024

Last week was electrifying in the otherwise usually staid world of regulation. And the coming week might be just as action-packed. The fireworks were set off when, as we noted in our note last week, an independent investigatory report on the FDIC workplace and FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg was released, and it was, in a word, damning. Conducted by the law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, the report charged, "For too many employees and for far too long, the FDIC has failed to provide a workplace safe from sexual harassment, discrimination, and other interpersonal misconduct."

The report went on to detail numerous incidents of Gruenberg verbally abusing employees and failing to respond to years of employee complaints over workplace culture. Gruenberg has issued a generic apology to staff but refused to step down despite a growing chorus of members of Congress demanding his resignation. As House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) said, the report "details his inexcusable behavior and makes clear new leadership is needed at the FDIC."

In an attempt to defend Gruenberg, House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA) issued not one but two strident press releases in response to the report defending Gruenberg. In the first release, Waters tried to divert the fault away from Gruenberg and onto two previous Republican chairs (despite Gruenberg having been Chair for the last three years. Gruenberg first joined the FDIC board in 2005 as Vice Chair, serving until he became Chair in 2011 and serving until 2018. Then he returned to serving as Vice Chair when Jelena McWilliams was named Chair. He then became Chair again in January 2023 after instigating a series of maneuvers to push McWilliams out so he could become Chair again).   

Then, later in the day, Waters issued an updated statement, again attempting to divert the issue away from Gruenberg and the institution as a whole – all the while ignoring the detailed evidence of Gruenberg's bullying and abusive behavior over the years.

The scandal will be brought into the public square on Wednesday and Thursday in Congressional hearings, starting at the House Financial Services Committee. The Committee had already scheduled an oversight hearing on banking regulation in general with Gruenberg, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu testifying. But at this point, we expect the lion's share of the hearing will be spent either bashing or defending Gruenberg. The fireworks show will be replicated the next day when the trio of regulators testify before the Senate Banking Committee.

Last week, a federal appellate court also blocked the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's regulation on capping credit card fees. We expect the CFPB to appeal the case, which is likely to end up before the Supreme Court.

This past Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved a move to ban derivatives contracts tied to political elections, sporting events, and awards shows like the Oscars, in a blow to political analysts like me.  

Also, last week, the Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed unanimously to examine mortgage servicing companies (NMC) more closely. Secretary Janet Yellen separately called on Congress to establish a system for troubled NMCs.  

We will watch closely this coming week as the House Financial Services Committee is expected to markup legislation seeking to limit SEC regulations on consolidated audit trails and crypto regulations.

And circling back to the regulatory calendar this coming week, the big event will be the SEC Division of Investment Management's annual Conference on Emerging Trends in Asset Management. The conference will bring together a variety of asset management industry participants and academics. SEC Chair Gary Gensler will kick off the meeting with a keynote speech. 

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Thursday, May 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Oversight of the U.S. Financial Regulators: Accountability and Financial Stability”.  Testifying will be Michael Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision, Federal Reserve; The Honorable Martin Gruenberg, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and Mr. Michael Hsu, Acting Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, May 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.” Testifying will be Michael Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision, Federal Reserve; The Honorable Martin Gruenberg, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and Mr. Michael Hsu, Acting Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, May 13, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Communicating About Monetary Policy” at the Cleveland Fed Conference on Central Bank Communications, Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Monday, May 13, 9:10 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Growth and Change at Community Development Financial Institutions” at the Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York.

·       Monday, May 13, 10:00 a.m. (Amsterdam) – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting, Foreign Bankers’ Association, Amsterdam.

·       Wednesday, May 15, 3:20 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape” at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, May 16, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a “Oversight of Financial Regulators” hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Friday, May 17, 10:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Payments Innovation, Technical Standards and the Federal Reserve’s Roles” at the International Organization for Standardization Technical Committee 68 Financial Services 44th Plenary Meeting in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       Saturday, May 18, 5:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives the Commencement Speech at the University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Charlottesville, Virginia.

·       Sunday, May 19, 3:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, May 16, 9:00 a.m. – The SEC Division of Investment Management will host its annual Conference on Emerging Trends in Asset Management. The conference will bring together a variety of asset management industry participants and academics.  SEC Chair Gary Gensler will kick off the meeting with a keynote speech.

·       Thursday, May 16, 2:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday, May 13, 11:15 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on an AI panel at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies (APAICS) at the 2024 Legislative Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C.  The panel is titled How AI is Changing the World.

·       Thursday, May 16, 1:15 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak at the National Futures Association’s (NFA) Board of Directors Spring meeting in Washington, D.C.

FINRA

·       Tuesday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – FINRA holds its 2024 FINRA Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Wednesday & Thursday, May 15 & 16 – FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Wednesday & Thursday, May 15 & 16 – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       Wednesday, May 15, 10:30 a.m. – The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a virtual meeting of the Consumer Advisory Board to discuss broad policy matters related to the Bureau's Unified Regulatory Agenda and general scope of authority.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Tuesday, May 14, 11:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold a Compliance Webinar on the Final Noncompete Rule.

·       Thursday, May 16, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC has a scheduling conference before the Administrative Law Judge re: the Tapestry, Inc and Capri Holding Limited deal.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday, May 14, 11:30 a.m. (London) – the Institute for International Finance hosts the IIF-Fitch Ratings Global Debt Roundtable in London.

·       Wednesday, May 15, 9:30 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds the 2024 IIF/Deloitte Insurance Colloquium in Arlington, Virginia.

·       Tuesday, May 14, 4:30 p.m. (Austin, Texas) – The Investment Company Institute and the Association of Securities and Exchange Commission Alumni (ASECA) holds an event entitled “ICI & ASECA: Celebrating 100 Years of the Mutual Fund”

·       Wednesday, May 15, 11:00 a.m. – SIFMA holds the third of a four-part webinar series on China.  This event is entitled “ U.S. Policy On China: What Might Congress and the White House Do in 2024 and Beyond.”

·       Wednesday, May 15, 1:00 p.m. – The National Association for Business Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Climate Change, Risk, and Insurance: How the Landscape for Risk Is Evolving and Implications for Commercial Real Estate Investors/Owners."

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, May 14, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “Can auditors better serve investors’ needs?”

·       Thursday, May 16, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “How can markets better value nature and price the benefits of conservation?”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

May 6 - 12, 2024

This week is going to be relatively quiet. Monday and Wednesday are holidays in Europe, which means a very quiet week in the EU, while holidays in Japan and South Korea will also help things stay quiet in Asia. 

However, we are watching one big geopolitical event this week, which will take place in the EU: Chinese President Xi Jinping's visits to Europe. Xi's trip begins with meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and EU President Ursula von der Leyden in Paris to discuss the multiple trade spats between the EU and China. From there, Xi heads to Hungary for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and then to Serbia. While all this is happening, Russia celebrates Victory Day this week, marking the end of World War II, and President Vladimir Putin will celebrate being reinaugurated as President of Russia.

Also, this week, we will be watching for renewed efforts to bring a cease-fire to Gaza as Israel prepares to launch a military offensive against the city of Rafah. We do not hope a deal will get done, but the discussions will likely intensify, and we can always hope.

Turning our attention to the US, the US Congress is in session this week. While the budget is finished and aid to Ukraine and Israel has been approved, most of the "major" issues left for Congress to tackle are secondary. This week's key focus for Congress is reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration.  

On the global economic radar this week, there are several key indicators and events to watch. Markets will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday, the UK GDP report, and the University of Michigan consumer survey in the US. In Asia, China will be reporting the latest trade balance and Caixin Services PMI, while Japan will also be releasing trade data. Australia's Reserve Bank meets on Tuesdayto decide rates.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Monday, May 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in conversation before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Fed Williams Speech/ Loan Officer Survey

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

·       Canada Average Hourly Wages (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a European tour of France, Serbia, and Hungary. He will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in trilateral meetings in Paris with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The UK marks the Early May Bank Holiday, a national holiday.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad holds the first phase of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (April)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (April)

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a moderated conversation on the economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/03)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Retail Sales Final (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/07)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will be re-inaugurated as President of Russia.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  The ministers will discuss Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and other current business.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the Equal Treatment Directive and the state of play of the Violence Against Women Survey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Jonathan Hall gives a speech at the University of Exeter entitled “Monsters in the deep… Artificial Intelligence.”

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Halifax House Price Index (April)/ New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (April)/ BoE Hall Speech

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Conference on the Americas takes place in the U.S. capital with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak before students and faculty and participates in a fireside discussion before the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management's Challenges and Opportunities class.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Car Production (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest.

·       North Macedonia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Germany Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Span Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Monetary Policy Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Thursday, May 9, 2024

Global

·       The G7 Justice Ministers meet in Venice, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor will go on strike in protest over President Javier Miliei’s economic reform efforts.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/04)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/03)

·       Canada BoC Financial System Review

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/04)/ Coincident Index Prel (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Australia Building Permits Final (March)/ Private House Approvals Final (March)

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ascension Day, a public holiday in the EU.  The ECB and most major banking systems are closed.

·       Russia will hold a large military parade in Moscow, marking the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks and participates in Q&A at Panel Cívico organized by Asociación Panel Cívico in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a seminar “The tokenization of financial instruments – prospects for the Italian market” organized by CONSOB in Rome, Italy

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at V Edition of the Expansión International Forum in Madrid, Spain.  She later participates on a panel entitled “Finance and Banks.”
Time: 9:55

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 10, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       USA Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Prel (May)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       China Vehicle Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote presentation on the digital euro by at CXVI Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Board Frank Elderson Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable at ASVIS/ECCO Symposium "Europe's Future: Investing in the Climate Transition for All" in Rome, Italy.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain GDP (March)/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Prel Q1/ BoE Pill Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)/ Industrial Sales (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Current Account Prel Q1

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds parliamentary elections (phase 2).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

·       The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held.  The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 6 - 10, 2024

The coming week in Washington's financial regulatory world will be fairly run-of-the-mill, but we will be watching several events which closely which could shake things up considerably.

First, press leaks suggest a long-awaited investigatory report on accusations of a toxic workplace at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may be publicly released early next week. There have been reports the report, conducted by the law firm Cleary Gottlieb, retained by a special committee of the FDIC board, will be tough on the management of FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and other senior managers. Gruenberg has apologized broadly to FDIC staff, but we are curious to see what details the report may reveal.

It will be a busy week at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC convenes its Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee early in the week and then hosts the 11th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation at the end of the week. The event is being cohosted by Lehigh University's Center for Financial Services and the University of Maryland's Center for Financial Policy.

Also, next week, state securities regulators will converge on Washington as the North American Securities Administrators Administration holds its 2024 NASAA Spring Meeting and Public Policy Symposium in Washington, D.C.  

Looking at Capitol Hill, we will be watching the House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee which will be holding a hearing looking at the SEC's Enforcement Division. By the hearing title – "SEC Enforcement: Balancing Deterrence with Due Process" – it seems like it will be a tough review of the Division's enforcement agenda. Over in the Senate Banking Committee, there will be a hearing about financial services fees in the rental housing market and the need for greater consumer protections.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Thursday, May 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Consumer Protection: Examining Fees in Financial Services and Rental Housing.”

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, May 7, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee holds a hearing on "SEC Enforcement: Balancing Deterrence with Due Process."

• Wednesday, May 8, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Mission Critical: Restoring National Security as the Focus of Defense Production Act Reauthorization, Part II."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Wednesday, May 8, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, May 8, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

• Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.

• Friday, May 10, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

• Monday, Thursday, May 6 – 9 – Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia. 

• Friday, May 10,  10:00 a.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council will meet.  You can watch the public portion via this LINK.  An agenda has not been released yet.

• Securities and Exchange CommissionMonday, May 6, 10:00 a.m. – The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under federal securities laws.  You can read the agenda HERE.

• Thursday, May 9, 2:00 p.m. EST – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

• Thursday & Friday, May 9 & 10 – The SEC hosts the 11th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation.  The event is being cohosted by Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services, and the University of Maryland’s Center for Financial Policy and will be held at the SEC. 

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, May 6, 11:30 a.m. PT – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a Fireside Chat at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills, California.

• Tuesday, May 7, 2:00 p.m. EDT – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a Responsible AI panel at the North American Securities Administrators Association’s (NASAA) 2024 Public Policy Symposium that explores the opportunities and challenges faced by policymakers, regulators, regulated financial institutions, investors, and customers.  The event will be held at the Intercontinental Hotel in Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, May 8, 8:15 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak at the World Economic Forum’s Industry Strategy Meeting 2024 in New York.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Wednesday, May 8, 3:15 p.m. London – Acting Comptroller Michael J. Hsu will participate in a keynote discussion on digital assets, including the tokenization of real-world assets and liabilities, as well as consumer protection, compliance, and supervision, at the Financial Times' Crypto and Digital Assets Summit in London.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Tuesday, May 7, 1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. – The Federal Trade Commission host a conference entitled “Older Adults and Fraud: What You Need to Know.” Speakers from the Federal Trade Commission, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Securities and Exchange Commission will share updates from their agencies and free resources to help you spot, avoid, and report fraud.

Farm Credit Administration

• Thursday, May 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the of the FCA holds a board meeting.  The agenda will review the report of the 2022 Census of Agriculture and approval of the minutes of the April 11 board meeting.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• Sunday – Wednesday, May 5 -8 – NASSA holds its 2024 NASAA Spring Meeting and Public Policy Symposium in Washington, D.C.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Monday & Tuesday, May 6 & 7 – SIFMA holds its annual Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crimes Conference in New York.

• Tuesday, May 7, 11:00 a.m. Malaysia – The Institute for International Finance hosts an online Roundtable on Digital Fraud and Scams.  The event is being held in Malaysia.

• Wednesday, May 8, 10:00 a.m. EST – SIFMA holds a Webinar entitled “China: The Emerging Financial Investment Landscape.”

• Thursday, May 9, 11:00 a.m. AEST – ISDA holds a virtual conference entitled “Countdown to D-Day: Navigating APAC Reporting Rules and Implementation Challenges.”

• Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. Istanbul, Türkiye – The Institute for International Finance holds the Türkiye Sustainable Finance Forum in Istanbul.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. - The Affordable Housing Conference of Montgomery County, Maryland, holds its 33rd annual Housing Summit with the theme "Building the Future: Unfinished Business in Affordable Housing.”  Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman delivers keynote luncheon remarks at Noon.  Then Representatives David Trone, (D-Md.),. Jamie Raskin, (D-Md.), and . Glenn Ivey, (D-Md.) will also speak.  The event will be held in Rockville, Maryland.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

May 3 - 5, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

European Union

• Enrico Letta’s Report: More Than a Market, But Less Than An Agenda  Centre For European Reform

  On April 18th, former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta published his long-awaited report on the future of the EU’s single market, entitled ‘Much more than a market’. Letta describes the EU single market as unsuited for a world where the EU’s share of the world economy is shrinking and where it faces competitors less willing to play by global norms. His report correctly identifies many of the EU’s most urgent problems. It has proposals on everything from the need for high-speed rail, investments in outer space, and a more unified health sector, to more quotidian efforts to improve EU law-making processes. But many of Letta’s recommendations echo ideas which have been raised repeatedly in recent years, offering something for everyone while glossing over trade-offs. This is illustrated by his somewhat quixotic call for the EU to strike “a balance between competitiveness, strategic independence and equitable global conditions, avoiding the imposition of detrimental regulations and instead fostering strategic partnerships based on well-founded policies”.

• EU’s red tape Is helping Russia Australian Strategic Policy Institute

  The European Union’s spending rules and public-procurement processes are plainly inadequate to the threat posed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. If the World War II Allies had been subject to such strictures, they would have been unable to buy landing craft for the invasion of Normandy in 1944, equip General Charles de Gaulle’s Free French Army, or issue war bonds in time. The EU’s regulations undermine its capacity to mitigate the war’s effects on Europe itself, weaken its ability to protect itself from a broad range of hybrid attacks, and prolong Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine.

• Security of Supply in Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation  German Institute for International and Security Affairs

  The recent political consensus on the European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) marks a significant step towards a common raw materials policy within the European Union (EU). Against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions, the EU aims to bolster its “strategic autonomy” within its raw material supply chains. To achieve this goal, it is essential for the EU and its member states to enhance collaboration with mineral-rich third countries. The current geopolitical environment will require a concerted effort on the part of the EU with respect to its raw material diplomacy, as only through such effective engagement will the EU be able to diplomatically and programmatically implement raw material partnerships that appeal to third countries. 

• Europe can’t afford to decouple from China  UnHerd

  Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travelled to Beijing to meet senior Chinese government representatives.  His reception was somewhat frosty, as officials told him that the United States must choose between a policy of “confrontation or cooperation” with the Chinese. Beijing’s diplomatic well is now pretty dry, and its representatives are signaling clearly that the Americans need to make a decision on their Chinese strategy.

China

• “Keeping Up with the Pacing Threat: Unveiling the True Size of Beijing’s Military Spending”  American Enterprise Institute

  Beijing’s publicly released military budget is inaccurate and does not adequately capture the colossal scope and scale of China’s ongoing military buildup and wide-ranging armed forces modernization.  After accounting for economic adjustments and estimating reasonable but uncounted expenditures, the buying power of China’s 2022 military budget balloons to an estimated $711 billion—triple Beijing’s claimed topline and nearly equal with the United States’ military budget that same year.  Equal defense spending between the United States and China plays to Beijing’s benefit. As a global power, the United States must balance competing priorities in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere, which spreads Washington’s budget thinly across multiple theaters. Meanwhile, each yuan China invests in its military directly builds its regional combat power in Asia.

• The Potential Chinese Responses to a U.S. Ban on TikTok  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  In March, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill that would require TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, or face a ban within the United States. The Senate is expected to vote on this matter soon, with President Joe Biden expressing his intention to sign the bill into law. However, factors such as the timing of the Senate vote, the November U.S. presidential election, and legal action by TikTok make the app’s U.S. future anything but certain. 

Russia and Ukraine

• Russia’s Shadow Fleet Goes Rogue  Center for European Policy Analysis

  The frequent presence of the Kremlin’s sanctions-dodging vessels off the coast of Gotland, where they perform dangerous ship-to-ship transfers of oil, is a clear provocation, not to mention a looming threat to marine life. Now the Swedish Navy reports that shadow vessels in the waters of Sweden’s exclusive economic zone don’t just conduct their regular business: they’re also equipped with communications gear that is in no way needed by standard merchant vessels. The Russian shadow fleet appears to simultaneously be a spy fleet.

•  These four Ukrainian families hoped to return home one day. Now all they have left of their homes is their keys.  Meduza

  In the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, over 14 million people — nearly one-third of Ukraine’s pre-war population — were forced to flee their homes.  For many of those hoping to someday return, however, Moscow’s war of aggression has left them without a home to go back to. In addition to homes now under Russian occupation, approximately 250,000 buildings in Ukraine (the majority of which were residential) have been completely destroyed.  Meduza spoke to four Ukrainian families who once dreamed of the day they could finally return home. Today, all that remains of their homes can fit in the palm of their hands: their keys.

• Stick, Carrot and More Stick: The Kremlin and Russian Youth Center for European Policy Analysis

  The Russian authorities are increasing the indoctrination of children and young people in an attempt to secure their support. In mid-April, the Ministry of Education ordered teachers to tell pupils about heroes of the “Special Military Operation,” “wartime heroic deeds” and “spiritual-moral values, including service to the Fatherland.”

• Does It Matter If Ukraine Loses?  Centre for European Reform

  In war, the ‘right’ side does not always win. Franco’s Nationalists won the Spanish Civil War; the Taliban drove the West out of Afghanistan. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said recently that without more US help, Ukraine would lose the war.  The commander of Ukrainian forces, Oleksandr Syrskyy, warned on April 13th that the situation in the east of the country had deteriorated significantly.  Even if the aid belatedly approved by the US House of Representatives on April 20th arrives in the next few weeks, democratic Ukraine could still be defeated by authoritarian Russia. Western countries – especially European countries – need to decide how much this matters to them.  At present, some, such as the Baltic states, are doing all they can to ensure that Russia does not win. A few, such as Hungary, seem to be actively working against Ukraine. But for most countries, there is a sizeable gap between leaders’ rhetoric, proclaiming support for Ukraine, and their revealed priorities, in terms of defense spending, weapons delivery and willingness to talk honestly to their domestic audience about the war.

United States

• Immigration Has Helped Boost US Economic Growth  Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Immigration into the United States has surged in recent years, and it has boosted economic growth. Based on an analysis of records from the Department of Homeland Security and other sources, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has substantially revised up its estimates of net immigration into the United States. CBO now estimates net annual immigration averaged 3 million in both 2022 and 2023 and projects that this year’s pace will be high as well. Many new immigrants have likely joined the US labor force, increasing the productive capacity of the macroeconomy. The implied increase in “potential output growth” helps explain how the US economy could have grown at a robust 3.1 percent pace over the four quarters of 2023 without generating more inflation pressures. 

The Hidden Monetary State  Arizona State Law Journal

Money is a motley.  While the state typically enjoys a monopoly on issuing new physical currency, a variety of instruments serve money-like roles in the financial system. The United States relies heavily on its commercial banking system to augment the money supply through issuing deposits. Alongside, and on top of the commercial banking system, a shadow banking system has also developed, offering a range of deposit substitutes. This article seeks to cast new light on the U.S. financial system by exploring how, over the course of the twentieth century, federal policymakers engaged in a series of distinct and largely uncoordinated monetary experiments. As we show through historical case studies, federal authorities designed, promoted, and repurposed financial instruments, endowing them with money-like characteristics by providing them with liquidity support, credit support, or both. In essence, policymakers created special purpose moneys to further national policy ambitions. 

Africa

• The Mirage of African Independence  Compact Magazine

  50 years ago, Portugal’s colonial project in Africa unraveled, bringing to a close the age of overt European imperialism on the continent. In the decades after World War II, dozens of newly independent nations arose in the African territories previously colonized by Britain, France, and Belgium. By the end of the 1960s, among Europe’s imperial powers, just one holdout had remained: Portugal, which had also been the first European nation to acquire African territory with the 1415 conquest of Ceuta, on the North African coast.

Chart of the Week

The Rainy Season Hits Panama and the Canal May Be Getting Back to Normal 

The long drought in Panama appears to be over.  Per Bloomberg: “The rainy season is arriving at the Panama Canal as predicted, fueling hopes that a prominent trade chokepoint will clear up just in time for shipping’s busy time of year. The seven-day moving average of daily vessel crossings reached 25 last week, up from a low of about 21 set in late-January but still well below the long-term average before the drought of about 35 a day, according to data compiled by IMF PortWatch. The canal authority announced recently that it will lift booking slots to 31 daily transits in the second half of May and then to 32 starting in June. Maximum draft rules — which limit the total weight of a ship’s cargo — will rise starting in June, too.”

CFA Society of Houston

Energy, Economics, Elections, and Geopolitical Risk

It was a great pleasure to speak to the CFA Society of Houston this past week in my role as Chief Political Strategist for DWS. As one of the leading global asset management firms, DWS really makes a superb effort to reach out and offer thought leadership content to clients and market participants. It’s a real credit to their leadership and vision, and I’m humbled to be part of it.

Houston is at the crossroads of many political and economic issues: energy, immigration, and economic growth from the boom in semiconductor and other tech businesses moving to Texas.

The questions came fast and furious and were superb—I had so much fun talking with everyone. Thank you, CFA Society of Houston, for having me and giving me the opportunity to talk with you!

The Global Week Ahead

April 28 - May 5, 2024

It is hard to believe May arrives this week. With it comes May Day, celebrated in many countries around the world. This means many financial markets and governments will be closed on Wednesday. But that does not mean this week will be quiet. We are tracking several important events.

First, next Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to make a rare visit to Europe for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić. But Xi’s visit to Serbia will also come around the 25th anniversary of when the U.S. bombed the Chinese Embassy during a series of NATO strikes against the Serbian government. Three Chinese journalists were killed, and the White House called the incident a regrettable mistake.  

Also this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads back to the Middle East for talks with Saudi and Israeli leaders in an attempt to jump-start negotiations to release Israeli hostages held by Hamas and perhaps find an avenue to reach a cease-fire. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching the Federal Reserve’s FMOC meetings this week for any signal of possible interest rate cuts (which seems increasingly unlikely for the rest of the year). Also this week, U.S. employment figures are released.

In Europe, The April CPI prints from the greater Eurozone, Germany, and Spain are coming out, as are the first quarter GDP figures. In Asia, this week, China releases PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI, hopefully giving markets more assurances that China’s economy is leveling out and returning to normal. Japan releases industrial production and labor data this week, as well as the Bank of Japan minutes from their March meeting.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 28, 2024

 Global

·       G& Climate, Energy, and Environmental Ministers meet in Torino, Italy, through April 30.

· The World Economic Forum is holding a Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, through April 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Antony Blinkin will leave for meetings in the Middle East through April 30.  The meetings will be around the World Economic Forum event in Riyad, Saudi Arabia, where Blinken will also speak.  He then goes on to Israel for meetings.

·       The second Mexican presidential debate takes place in Mexico City.

·       China will host three separate Latin American foreign ministers for separate meetings through April 30:

• Bolivian Foreign Minister Celinda Sosa Lunda will visit Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

• Argentinian Foreign Minister Diana Mondino will visit Beijing for talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  Mondino will seek to extend a currency swap with Beijing and seek to stabilize relations as Argentine President Javier Milei is seen growing away from China and closer to the US.

• Peru’s Foreign Minister Javier Gonzalez-Olaechea Franco will visit Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s national elections continue.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A criminal hearing against Colombian President Gustavo Petro's son, Nicolas Petro, will begin in Barranquilla, Colombia, over allegations of taking bribes and money laundering. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will visit Indonesia for meetings with President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo. This will be Lee’s final meeting with a foreign leader before he transfers power to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in mid-May. Wong will accompany him on the trip, Indonesia's foreign ministry said. The discussions are expected to cover topics such as food resilience, the green energy transition, and the development of Indonesia's new capital city, Nusantara.

·       The IMF’s executive board meets to discuss the approval of $1.1bn funding for Pakistan, the last tranche of a $3bn standby arrangement secured last summer to avert a sovereign default and which runs out this month

·        Japan will celebrate its Golden Week holiday through May 4, which will include multiple public holidays and spur significant travel in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore URA Property Index Final (Q1)/ Unemployment Rate Prel (Q1)/ Imports/ Exports/ PPI (March)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment (Q1)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (March)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is expected to announce whether he will step down from office following revelations his wife is under investigation for corruption.

·       Candidates for the European Commission presidency will debate in Brussels. Taking part in the debate are Walter Baier (Party of the European Left); Bas Eickhout (European Green Party); Valeriu Ghilețchi (European Christian Political Movement); Ursula von der Leyen (European People’s Party); Maylis Roßberg (European Free Alliance); Nicolas Schmit (Party
of European Socialists); Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party); and Anders Vistisen (Identity and Democracy Party).

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  They will focus on the measures that have been proposed or taken so far that are aimed at simplifying the common agricultural policy (CAP) and strengthening the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will hold informal meetings in Brussels through April 30.

·       Heathrow Airport Border Force employees are expected to go on strike through May 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks at a dinner at the Royal Automobile Club organized by Euro50 Group in London, UK.

·       Slovakia Business and Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (April)

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg/ Bavaria/ Brandenburg/ Hesse/ North Rhine Westphalia/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ Harmonised Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Togo holds legislative and regional elections.

·       The World Bank hosts the International Development Association Africa Heads of State Summit in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Global

·       The UN will hold a joint event of the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council on the theme “El Niño 2023-2024: Actions for the safety, sustainability and resilience of people and the planet”.

·       The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific is released.

·       Today is the last day of Passover.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Court of Justice holds preliminary hearings in Mexico’s case against Ecuador.  In early April, Ecuadorian police broke into the Mexican Embassy to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who had been residing there to avoid arrest.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)

·       Canada GDP (February)

·       USA Employment Cost Index (Q1)/ Redbook (April/27)/ House Price Index (February)/ Chicago PMI (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/26)

·       Chile Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Periklino Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta.  More than 80 brands will be there to show the latest in EVs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Construction Orders (March)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

·       Philippines PPI (March)

·       Australia Housing Credit (March)/ Retail Sales Prel (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)

·       China NBS & Non-Manufacturing & General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence (Q1)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Thailand Current Account (March)/ Private Investment & Consumption (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Infrastructure Output (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at a conference entitled "Globalization: What's Next?" co-organized by Banque de France, CEPR, the World Bank, and the University of Surrey in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Milles gives a speech at the London Institute of Banking and Finance.

·       France GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ Current Account (February)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate Prel (April)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues (Q1)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (March)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ Inflation Rate Flash (April)/ CPI Flash (April)

·       Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Ukraine Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Global

·       May Day is celebrated around the world.  Many financial markets and banks globally are closed today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Sentencing of co-founder of crypto platform Binance, Changpeng Zhao, over money laundering.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins meetings through May 2 on interest rates.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklern and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Parliament’s Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/26)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/26)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in the Marshall Islands.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Unemployment Rate (Q1)/ Participation Rate (Q1)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry, Construction, & Manufacturing Index (April)/ Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ Commodity Prices (April)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account (Q1)

·       India M3 Money Supply (April/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Labor Day in most of Europe. Banks and financial markets are closed.

·       Today is the 20th Anniversary of the EU trading bloc enlarging to 25 member states (from 15 states).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 2, 2024

Global

·       The OECD Ministerial Council meeting takes place in Paris through May 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Unit Labour Costs Prel (Q1)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (April/27)/ Factory Orders (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/26)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to announce the creation of an international framework for generative AI at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's Ministerial Council Meeting. During the two-day meeting in Paris.  The framework is expected to include more than 40 countries.

·       The Asian Development Bank holds its 57th annual meeting in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (March)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/27)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Building Permits Prel (March)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

·       Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President von der Leyen will travel to Lebanon with Cyprus President Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides.  Together, they will meet with Lebanon Prime Minister Najib Azmi Mikati and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Israel and Gaza as well as migration issues.

·       In England and the UK, local elections will be held for ten mayoral seats.  Also, a by-election will be held for a Parliament seat.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board member Philip R. Lane will give a virtual guest lecture at the University of Stanford in Stanford, California.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (February)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (April)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ PPI (March)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)

Friday, May 3, 2024

Global

·       FAO Food Price Index (April)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, Brazil, and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena in Asuncion, Paraguay, through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee to participate in the panel before the hybrid" Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" event hosted by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/03)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Japan, a national holiday.  It commemorates when a new constitution was ratified in 1945.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (April)/ Home Loans (March)/ Investment Lending for Homes (March)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (March)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/19)/ Deposit Growth (April/19)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

·       France Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (March)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/26)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (April)

·       Germany New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Global

·       The Organization of Islamic Cooperation Banjul Summit is being held in the Republic of Gambia through May 5.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives two commencement speeches at Georgia College and State University (GCSU) in Milledgeville, Georgia.  

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Remembrance Day in the Netherlands.  At 8 p.m., citizens across the country hold a two-minute vigil honoring the civilians and soldiers who died since the beginning of World War II.

·       Today is the 800th day of the War in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 5, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama holds general elections, choosing a new president and vice president.  Currently, José Raúl Mulino of the Realizing Goals Party is leading over several other candidates.

·       The 2024 Milken Institute Global Conference begins and runs through May 8 in Los Angeles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to begin a tour of European nations beginning with a visit to France for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron.  He then will go on to visit Hungary and Serbia.  The visit comes at a time when the European Commission has recently launched an investigation into alleged preferences Beijing gives to Chinese companies in medical devices and green products such as wind turbines and solar panels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 75th Anniversary of the Council of Europe being founded with the Treaty of London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reading

April 26 - 28, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

U.S. National Economic Security Policy

• Onshoring Semiconductor Production: National Security Versus Economic Efficiency Council on Foreign Relations

  Semiconductors—commonly known as microchips, chips, or integrated circuits—enable modern life. Those small devices make everything from computers, smartphones, microwaves, and cars to advanced weaponry work. A car, for instance, needs as many as 3,000 semiconductors, while one Javelin anti-tank missile requires more than 250 chips. As artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing continue to advance, the global demand for semiconductors will only increase, while power will accrue to those countries that can develop, produce, and harness the most advanced chips.

• What can be done about the high and rising national debt?  Brookings Institution

  U.S. policymakers and the American public have expressed significant concerns about the rising national debt, but there have been few meaningful actions in recent decades to address it. On April 16, at an event co-hosted by the Brookings Institution and Miami Dade College, fiscal policy experts and local officials came together to discuss the prospects for policies that can address concerns over rising public debt. You can watch the full video of the event here.

U.S. Election Outlook

• Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report United States Census Bureau

  The voter registration rate (69.1%) for the 2022 congressional election was the highest registration rate of a midterm election in 30 years. However, the voter turnout rate (52.2%) was lower than in the 2018 (53.4%) midterm elections, according to the new Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022 report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. The report, based on data from the 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement, builds on detailed tables released earlier this year.

Russia

• Russian US election interference targets support for Ukraine after slow start Microsoft Threat Analysis Center

  Russian influence operations (IO) have picked up steam in the past two months. The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) has tracked at least 70 Russian actors engaged in Ukraine-focused disinformation, using traditional and social media and a mix of covert and overt campaigns.

• The Black Sea Region Endures Beyond the Theater of War Panorama

  Many strategic surprises have come from the combat operations on the Black Sea theatre in the last 25 months, and they keep coming as the long Russo-Ukrainian war continues to evolve while the prospect of peace is barely visible through its fog. In the domain of politics, one surprise is that the Black Sea region has not been completely transfigured into the theater of war but endured, even if its key institution – the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) – barely functions in a few working groups and the Parliamentary Assembly.

• US vs. Russia: Why the Biden strategy in Africa may be failing Politico

  U.S. officials are starting to accept that their strategy of pressing Niger and other war-battered African countries to break off ties with Moscow and embrace democratic norms is no longer working. The recent breakdown in relations with Niger, where American troops are set to withdraw as Russian fighters arrive, has forced a reckoning inside the Biden administration over its approach to maintaining its allies in volatile parts of Africa.

• Back in Stock? The State of Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of the War CSIS

  This report examines Russia’s evolving defense industrial capabilities and limitations during the second year of the Russia-Ukraine war and analyzes how these changes have affected and will continue to affect battlefield outcomes in Ukraine. The report starts with an overview of Russia’s domestic arms production efforts throughout 2023, followed by a detailed examination of key Russian weapons systems (such as tanks, artillery, drones, missiles, and electronic warfare systems) and their changing roles on the battlefield. The report then analyzes Russia’s general procurement dynamics and identifies the imported components and weapons categories that Russia’s defense industry has particularly relied on in the second year of the war.

India

• How India’s democracy shapes its global role and relations with the West  Chatham House

  Two narratives dominate global discussions about India today: one is on the country’s rise as an increasingly prominent geopolitical and economic actor; the other centers on concerns – particularly among India’s Western partners – about democratic backsliding. As India goes to the polls in 2024, this paper examines the interplay between these two narratives, or more specifically, what India’s status as the world’s largest democracy means for its global role and relations with the West. It does so by analyzing how the changing nature of India’s national identity impacts the country’s foreign policy.

China

•   Why the U.S. and China Suddenly Care About a Port in Southern Chile Americas Quarterly

  Perched on the pylons of a century-old coal pier, sleek black cormorants gaze out at cruise ships, propane tankers, and research vessels dotting the white-capped Strait of Magellan. Farther into the horizon, a humpback whale blows a misty plume toward the sky.

• China is Battening Down for the Gathering Storm Over Taiwan War On The Rocks

  Chinese war drums beat on as pundits hotly debate if or when Beijing will try to seize Taiwan by force. There is no apparent countdown to D-day for initiating a blockade or invasion, but major strategic indicators clearly show that General Secretary Xi Jinping is still preparing his country for a showdown. Developments underway suggest Taiwan will face an existential crisis in single-digit years, most likely in the back half of the 2020s or the front half of the 2030s.

• Middle East

• Six Options for Israel in Gaza The Washington Quarterly

  In response to its devastating October 7, 2023 attack, Israeli leaders have stated that they seek to “destroy” Hamas–a goal easier in rhetoric than in reality.1 Israel’s actions—bombing Gaza, sending in troops to kill Hamas fighters and destroy Hamas’ infrastructure, and targeting Hamas leaders in Gaza and around the region—have killed over 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza, including many children. In solidarity with Hamas, Iranian-backed groups have conducted attacks against Israeli and US targets around the region.2 If, understandably, Israel is loath to allow Hamas a victory and seeks to ensure its security, what options does it have?

• Iran and the de-escalation myth Atlantic Council

  Forgive the Israelis if they aren’t in the mood to take the victory lap the White House has suggested to them, following the remarkable defense of their territory from an unprecedented Iranian barrage of more than three hundred explosive-laden drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. “You got a win,” US President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend, as reported by Axios from a White House source. “Take the win.” Translate that into a strong US suggestion, straight from the Oval Office, that Israel demonstrate restraint in its response and refrain from attacking Iranian territory to avoid further escalation. To drive his point home, Biden also told the Israeli prime minister that US forces wouldn’t participate in any reprisal attack.

International Economics 

• 24-9 Economic Multilateralism 80 Years after Bretton Woods Peterson Institute for International Economics

  The global economic institutions that grew from the Bretton Woods conference of 1944 aimed to create a cooperative policy environment conducive to recovery, development, continuing prosperity, social stability, and democracy. Prominent in the minds of the architects were the macroeconomic and trade policy coordination failures of the 1930s, which accompanied a world depression and the march toward the Second World War. The assumption of “embedded” liberalism’ underlying Bretton Woods gave way to a much more market-oriented system by the early 1990s, fueling strong growth in several large emerging markets and a period of hyper-globalization—but also social tensions in advanced economies. The result has been a changed geopolitical balance in the world as well as a backlash against aspects of globalization in many richer countries, notably the main sponsor of postwar international cooperation, the United States. At the same time, global cooperation is threatened despite the emergence of a broader range of shared global threats requiring joint action. The rich industrial countries that dominate the existing multilateral institutions should recognize them as being instrumental for channeling superpower competition into positive-sum outcomes that can also attract broad-based international support. However, leveraging those institutions will require buy-in from middle- and low-income countries, as well as from domestic political constituencies in advanced economies. The future of multilateralism depends on reconciling these potentially conflicting imperatives.

• Newcomers Bring New Rules  CSIS

  The world’s challenges are increasingly complex. Borders could not stop the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, but Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that the kinds of national wars that characterized the 20th century were still relevant. Ideology has faded, and the states of the Global South have grown larger and wealthier. They now expect a larger share of the global pie. While cooperation has become more necessary, the world has entered an era of increased national contestation.

• Jobs, Trade, and Investment: Cyclical Weakness, Structural Strength The Transatlantic Economy

  Lenin once quipped, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” So, it is with the 2020s. While barely at the half mark of this decade, the world economy has been buffeted by a global pandemic, Russia’s stunning war of aggression in the heart of Europe, an Israel-Hamas conflict that could engulf the broader Middle East, ongoing violence across large swathes of Africa, massive movements of displaced peoples, major disruptions to flows of goods, services, and commodities, and a spike in inflationary pressures reminiscent of the 1970s. Rarely have the challenges seemed so acute.

• Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and its Causal Effects UPenn

  After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation distilled from diverse empirical indicators. To do so, we rely on the use of a flexible, dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. Then, we employ structural vector autoregressions and local projections to gauge the causal effects of changes in fragmentation. We show that more fragmentation impacts the global economy detrimentally but harms emerging economies more than advanced ones. We also document a key asymmetry: fragmentation immediately harms the global economy, while reduced fragmentation only unfolds gradually. A sectoral analysis within OECD economies highlights the adverse effects on those industries intricately linked to global markets, including manufacturing, construction, finance, wholesale, and retail trade.