U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

April 29 - May 4, 2024

The regulatory week ahead is poised to bring two pivotal events that will directly influence the pending CapitalOne – Discover merger.

The first event, a hearing by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, is aptly titled “Merger Policies of the Federal Banking Agencies.” This hearing holds significant implications for the future of financial mergers. 

 Amidst the buzz among financial lobbyists and regulatory circles, the stance of key figures like Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg, CFPB Direct Rohit Chopra, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu, and the new entrant Jonathan Kanter, Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust, is being closely watched. Their potential opposition to significant-sized financial mergers, including the CapitalOne-Discover merger, makes the upcoming hearing even more intriguing.

The second (albeit lesser) event will be Tuesday at the Independent Community Bank Association annual conference, Capital Summit 2024. FDIC Chair Gruenberg and CFPB Director Chopra will jointly participate in a Fireside Chat to discuss the state of banking.

This comes on the heels of regulators announcing they were extending the public comment period for the CapitalOne-Discover deal another month (from April 26 to May 31). Progressive Democrats on Capitol Hill, along with many community organizations, are ramping up their opposition to the deal, and being given an extra month to make their case is not good news for either company.

Last week, there were three particularly big actions in the regulatory world worth noting: one that successfully made it through (although we think that is going to be temporary) and the other that failed. 

First, a divided Federal Trade Commission (FTC) voted to ban noncompete agreements. That action – long expected – ignited several almost immediate federal lawsuits seeking to block the FTC action (making the point that the FTC lacks the statutory authority to make and enforce such a regulation. Our money is on the lawsuits winning this one and quickly).

The second event was the Department of Labor finalizing the rule on retirement savings protections. This proposal has had a long tenure, first emerging during the Obama Administration. After being struck down by federal courts, the SEC passed Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) in 2019. However, the Labor Department and advocates argued that Reg BI left too many gaps and pushed through the current iteration. Expect several federal lawsuits soon challenging this new rule.

The third event was a rather odd, almost last-minute move by FDIC Chair Gruenberg aimed at large asset managers. At the last possible legal moment, Gruenberg called a board meeting last Monday for a board meeting on Thursday to take up possible measures to deal with the size and scope of asset managers who have large stakes in large banks. FDIC Board member and CFPB Director Chopra had offered a rule that would have given the FDIC broad authority to investigate asset management firms’ investments in big banks. Countering his proposal was FDIC Director Jonathan McKernan’s proposal to do some “basic” monitoring of a few large index funds that have large stakes in big banks. The Investment Company Institute and several large mutual funds lobbied furiously against the Chopra measure and, to the surprise of many, FDIC Director and Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu opposed the Chopra measure.

McKernan then took down his proposal and, to make a long dramatic event short, nothing happened.  

But that does not mean regulators are done looking at the largest mutual funds and their holdings in big banks.  We recommend watching this space closely and reading Capital Account, edited by our friend Rob Schmidt, for the most detailed and best reporting on this (and every financial regulatory event going on).  It is well worth the subscription.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• Thursday, May 2, 10:00 a.m.: the Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Higher Prices; How Shrinkflation and Technology Impact Consumers’ Finances.”

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, April 30, 2:00 p.m.: The House Oversight and Accountability Health Care and Financial Services Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Health of the Commercial Real Estate Markets and Removing Regulatory Hurdles to Ensure Continued Strength."

• Wednesday, May 1, 10:00 a.m.: The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Merger Policies of the Federal Banking Agencies.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday & Wednesday, April 30 – May 1: The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates and the economy.  Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference on May 1 at 2:00 p.m.

• ·Saturday, May 4, 9:20 a.m. and 2:20 p.m.:  Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives two commencement speeches at Georgia College and State University (GCSU) in Milledgeville, Georgia.  

U.S. Treasury Department

• April 30, 9:00 a.m.: The Treasury Department’s Borrowing Advisory Committee holds a meeting to discuss the economy, financial markets, Treasury financing, and debt management and for a written report from the committee of its recommendations.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, May 2, 1:30 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, April 29, 9:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. (UK time): CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate virtually in an MSCI Sustainability Institute roundtable event on derivatives and climate in London.

• Thursday, May 2, 1:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.: Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero, sponsor of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Technology Advisory Committee (TAC), will host an “AI Day during a TAC meeting. The public is invited to come in person or watch the meeting via live webcast at CFTC.gov.  The scheduled speakers include Dr. Nicol Turner Lee, Director of the Center for Technology Innovation at the Brookings Institution; Todd Smith, Director of Centralized Data Science and Analytics at the National Futures Association; Francesca Rossi, AI Ethics Global Leader, IBM; Todd Conklin, Chief AI Officer and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Cyber at the U.S. Treasury Department, Sunayna Tuteja, Chief Innovation Officer of the Federal Reserve Board, and Kirsten Wegner, Chief Executive Officer of Modern Markets Initiative.

• Friday, May 3, 10:45 a.m.: CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will give remarks and participate in a fireside chat at the 2024 Fintech and Blockchain Symposium, Co-Hosted by Rutgers Law School’s Center for Blockchain and Fintech and Sidley Austin LLP in New York.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• April 29, Monday, 3:25 p.m.: FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will participate in a Fireside Chat with Independent Community Bankers Association President Rebecca Romero Rainey at the ICBA’s Capital Summit 2024 in Washington, DC.

• May 2, 9:00 a.m.: The FDIC Advisory Committee on Community Banking to provide advice and recommendations on a broad range of policy issues that have particular impact on small community banks throughout the United States and the local communities they serve.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• April 29, Monday, 3:25 p.m.: FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra will participate in a Fireside Chat with Independent Community Bankers Association President Rebecca Romero Rainey at the ICBA’s Capital Summit 2024 in Washington, DC.

• April 30, 1:00 p.m.: The CFPB holds a meeting by teleconference of the Community Bank Advisory Council to discuss broad policy matters related to the Bureau's Unified Regulatory Agenda and general scope of authority.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• April 28 – May 1, Sunday—Wednesday: The Independent Community Bankers of America will hold their Capital Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.  Several members of Congress and regulators, including FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, as well as all the Federal Home Loan Bank Board presidents, will speak.

• May 1, Thursday, 8:30 – 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for International Finance, in conjunction with PWC, will hold a hybrid Roundtable entitled “Liquidity Lessons Learned from the 2023 Banking Turmoil”  in New York and online.

• May 1, Thursday, 11:00 a.m.: SIFMA holds an event entitled “U.S.-China Relations: Outlook for Financial Services.” This is the first of a four-part series and will be conducted under Chatham House Rules.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• April 30,  Tuesday, 9:00 a.m.: The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “The International Sustainability Standards Board’s First Two Years.”  Sue Lloyd 
  Vice-Chair, International Sustainability Standards Board and Sylvie Goulard 
  Professor of Practice in Global Affairs and Geopolitics, SDA Bocconi School of Management, will speak.

• April 30, Tuesday, 4:00 p.m.: The Cato Institute holds a book discussion on "Build, Baby, Build: The Science and Ethics of Housing Regulation."

• May 1, Thursday, 2:30 p.m.:  The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Putting public assets to work through innovative finance.”  They will discuss how the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) Build America Bureau recently announced an unprecedented grant opportunity: the Innovative Finance and Asset Concession Program. The program makes available $100 million in grants over five years to public entities doing pre-development work to structure public-private partnerships and other innovative finance and delivery mechanisms for transportation and transit-oriented development projects. The grant provides up to $1 million in funding with no local match requirement and an additional $1 million in funding with a match. Eligible applicants are public entities that own, control, or maintain assets that could be enhanced through projects eligible for Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) credit assistance.

The Future of TikTok in America: My Interview in Handelsblatt

April 20, 2024

I was delighted to be interviewed this week by Handelsblatt, the leading German newspaper, about the U.S. Congress’ legislative move to ban TikTok.

The legislation now looks assured of passage following the House of Representatives passing a new version to meet the demands of key Senators. A final vote in the Senate is likely on Tuesday, April 23, but it could be delayed by a week.

Is this really the end for TikTok in the U.S.? Not immediately. While the legislation now about to be passed dealt with some of the potential legal issues, look for ByteDance (the parent company of TikTok) to immediately go to the U.S. Federal Court to overthrow the legislation, likely on an argument that it violates the First Amendment rights of both the company and its users. That all but assures a prolonged - perhaps multi-year - battle before TikTok disappears from users’ screens.

You can read the interview HERE (and unless you speak or read German, you might want to use Google Translate or another system to read it!).

The Global Week Ahead

April 21 - 28, 2024

As Israeli-Iranian tensions seem to be receding, events in China this week will likely garner the most attention from global markets.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Beijing for talk arriving just as the U.S. Congress passes legislation granting a military aid package to Taiwan (as part of the Ukraine/Israel military aid package) along with legislation banning TikTok from operating in the U.S., the release of a tough House of Representatives report detailing the Chinese Governments' role in supporting the fentanyl trade, and less than a week after President Biden announced his intention to triple tariffs on some Chinese steel imports.   

Blinken is expected to press Chinese leaders to step back from providing Russia with substantial dual-use technologies and materials that are being used by the Russian military in its war on Ukraine.  All in all, it will not be a leisurely visit for Blinken.

Amid Blinken's visit, China's National People's Congress meets this week to discuss new anti-money laundering laws, a second and final review of a major pending Tariff Law, and consideration of new national nuclear energy laws.

Also, this week, even though the Israeli counter-strike on Iran was seen as de-escalatory, markets and political leaders around the world will continue to watch the situation warily.  Israel begins the observation of Passover Monday night (which goes through April 30), and the hope is the situation in Gaza cools down enough for renewed negotiations with Hamas for the release of Israeli hostages (something Turkish President Recep Erdogan met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss).  But all indications from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding a planned assault on the Gaz city of Rafah seem to be on track, despite the pleas from President Biden and other Western leaders not to do so.

Turning the global economic radar screen, markets will be focused on the U.S.'s Q1 GDP reading and U.S. personal income and outlays reports.  Among those reports is the Federal Reserve's favorite economic metric—the personal consumption expenditures price index—which they use to factor in interest rates. Moving to Europe, the purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the Eurozone and important economic data from Germany and France will be released, giving the European Central Bank more guidance on rates going forward. 

Looking at Asia this coming week, the big event will be on Friday when the Bank of Japan meets to decide on interest rates while Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) is also being released.

Below is what else of note we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 21, 2024

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador will hold a series of referendums on reforms to fight organized crime which has become a major problem for the country.

·       The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.

·       Colombian opposition groups will protest the government of President Gustavo Petro in major cities. 

·       In Rio de Janeiro, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will protest the criminal case against him. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Maldives hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will jointly open with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre the Hannover Messe, one of the largest industrial trade fairs in the world.

·       The Basque region of Spain will hold local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues a series of diplomatic meetings in the Middle East.  He met late last week with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss the release of Israeli hostages.  He now goes on to Iraq for discussions with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani about the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan and the operations of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) whom Turkey considers to be terrorist.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN’s African Science, Technology, and Innovation Forum will take place in Addis Ababa through April 22.

·       The Connected Africa Summit 2024 will be hosted by Kenya’s information ministry in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 22, 2024

Global

·       The Jewish festival of Passover begins tonight and goes through April 30.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Also in the morning, the Security Council will resume a debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The opening arguments will be made in the criminal trial of former President Donald Trump in New York.  The case revolved around alleged hush money being paid to former porn star Stormy Daniels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)/ PPI (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines and the U.S. commence the 39th Balikatan military exercises.  The training exercise includes plans to simulate the sinking of an enemy warship and retaking territory from hostile forces. An estimated 16,700 personnel from both sides participate.

·       Indonesia’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s presidential election victory in February.  He won the election, but the two losing candidates charged there were widespread irregularities.

·       In New Delphi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to make an announcement with Elon Musk about the opening of a major Tesla factory ($3 billion) in India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1 & 5Y

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss the Ukraine War and the EU’s response and sanctions on Russia.

·       The European Parliament's plenary session will convene through April 25 for the last time before the upcoming EU elections in June.  During this session, the Parliament is set to discuss new corporate due diligence requirements under the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.  They will also likely move on new amendments to the Common Agricultural Policy following widespread protests across the EU by farmers angry at export laws. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives the Presidential lecture at Yale University.

·       Euro Area Government Budget and Debt to GDP 2023/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Poland Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi travels to Pakistan to meet with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leaders.  In January, Iran launched a series of missiles and drones into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province against the Iranian Baloch militant group, Jaish ul-Adi.   Raisi then travels to Sri Lanka for meetings with President Wickremesinghe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas.

·       The 5th Africa Climate Talks, hosted by the African Union Commission’s African Climate Policy Centre and African Development Bank, will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

·       The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas. The Summit goes through April 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: Conflict-related sexual violence. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Redbook (April/20)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/19)/ Building Permits Final (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s National People’s Congress meets through April 26.  The agenda items to be discussed are likely to include money laundering laws, give a second review of a pending Tariff Law, and consider energy related laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Singapore Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Health Ministers will hold informal meetings through April 24 in Brussels.

·       Today is St George’s Day. It is celebrated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Catalonia, Croatia, Cyprus, England, Georgia, Greece, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania, and Serbia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable on AI organized by Regulation Partners in Lanzarote (Canary Islands), Spain.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the London campus of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

·       Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to Non-proliferation, and it is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Canada releases the summary of deliberations from the most recent interest rate decision.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/19)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/19)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 7 to 10 yrs.

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials.  This follows the recent visit of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  Blinken is expected to discuss the Ukraine War, President Biden’s recent announcement of his intent to triple tariffs on Chinese steel, the U.S. Congress’ newly passed ban on TikTok, and other major issues.

·       Indonesia will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's 57th working group on small and midsize enterprises in Bali through April 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Australia Inflation Rate (Q1)/ CPI (Q1)/ RBA Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median CPI (Q1)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (March)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Macedonia holds the first round of presidential elections.  The vote comes in the midst of heightened tensions between the country’s Albanian minority and Macedonian majority.  If no candidate wins an outright victory, a run-off election will take place on May 8, which will coincide with the country’s planned parliamentary elections. 

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the  ECB retail payments conference 'Strengthening an innovative and integrated European retail payments market' in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later in the day, he chairs a panel entitled "Strengthening the European retail payments landscape: Public and private sectors join forces" at the conference.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul chairs a plenary session and delivers concluding remarks at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives opening remarks at "Frankfurt liest ein Buch" organized by Frankfurt liest ein Buch e.V. in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later in the day, she gives the opening speech at the Inaugural conference of the ChaMP Research Network "Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World ("ChaMP")."

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives the keynote speech at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)

·       Italy Business and Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit Growth (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to resume an open debate on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       USA GDP Growth Rate (Q1)/ GDP Price Index (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/20)/ Real Consumer Spending Adv (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing and Composite Index (April)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Beijing International Automotive Exhibition begins in Beijing.  Chinese and global automakers will be showcasing their latest models.

·       Today is Anzac Day, celebrating the unity of Australia, New Zealand, and the UK in defense efforts and honoring the military dead. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit Papua New Guinea, where he and Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape will commemorate Anzac Day. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/20)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a speech on the future of the European Union at the Sorbonne University in Paris, France.

·       Italy celebrates National Liberation Day, commemorating the end of Nazi fascism in the country.

·       Portugal celebrates Freedom Day, commemorating the Carnation Revolution in 1974 when, which threw off the military dictatorship.

·       In London, the CBI National Business Dinner is held.  The event is attended by senior figures from business, politics, and media. Traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government.

·       Venice becomes the first city in the world to charge a daily access fee to day-trippers (€5) to tourists on day trips to the Italian city. It does not apply to those staying overnight and only applies on 29 dates between today and July 14, when there is peak tourist activity.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Great Britain Car Production (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (April)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)/ Jobseekers Total (March)

·       Spain PPI (March)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending and Borrowing Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 26, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, faces sentencing after being convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (March)/ Budget Balance FEV

·       Brazil Bank Lending (March)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (March)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       USA PCE Price Index (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Bank of Japan board will meet to discuss and decide interest rates, Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/

·       Australia PPI (Q1)/ Import and Export Prices (Q1)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)IL

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Malaysia PPI (March)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin, Germany, to discuss the situation in Ukraine and additional military support for the Ukrainian military.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area M3 Money Supply (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate (Q1)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (March)

·       Greece Total Credit (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (April)

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 27, 202 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House Correspondents’ Association Annual Diner is held in Washington, D.C. President Biden will address the audience.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating the day when the Liberation Front of the Slovene Nation was formed in 1941 to fight the Nazi occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Sierra Leon’s Independence  Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 19671.

·       Togo celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in when the Togolese Republic was established in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Global

·       G7 Climate, Energy, and Environmental Ministers meet in Torino, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico’s three presidential candidates will participate in the 2nd televised presidential debate, which will focus on economic development, infrastructure building, and employment.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds by-elections for three seats in the Diet’s lower chamber. The elections come at a time when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are at record-low poll numbers due to the handling of a political slush fund scandal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Democratic Republic of Congo holds elections for provincial governors and vice governors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

April 22 - 26, 2024

The regulatory world in Washington will be pretty quiet this week with the Passover holiday this week, and the U.S. Congress is out of session (although the Senate is expected to stay in town to vote on Tuesday on the $95 billion Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan aid package as well as a ban on TikTok).

This week, our focus will be on three potentially pivotal events at the Federal Trade Commission. The Open Meeting scheduled for Tuesday is particularly important. The FTC will deliberate on a rule to ban noncompete clauses in business contracts.    We anticipate the rule will be passed. This decision could significantly impact the financial services industry in the future. Stay informed and prepared for this potential game-changer. 

On Wednesday, the FTC is hosting an informal hearing on a proposed trade regulation rule concerning unfair and deceptive fees. This is part of a broader, coordinated effort strongly supported by President Biden and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra. The focus is on credit card and bank fees, and this rule could significantly alter the regulatory landscape in this sector. Stay tuned for updates on this important development.  

However, the biggest headline-grabbing event at the FTC this week may be what is discussed at an FTC closed meeting on Monday. There is speculation the Commission will be discussing a major pending merger – perhaps the Exxon/Pioneer Energy deal – and whether to block the deal. Of course, Open Meetings are confidential and none of us actually know what the agenda item, but we do know markets will be watching this one closely.  

Below is a listing of all the other major regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is in recess this week for the Passover holiday (except they are expected to return on Tuesday to vote on the Ukraine aid package and TikTok ban legislation).

House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives is in recess this week for the Passover holiday.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• There are no significant events or speeches scheduled at this time as the Fed is in its usual “Blackout Period” in advance of the Federal Open Market meetings, which are being held on May 1 – 2, 2024.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a closed meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Wednesday, April 24, 2:45 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a panel at FIA’s Law & Compliance Conference titled AI and Machine Learning: The Unknown Future Rolls Towards Us at the Gaylord Hotel at National Harbor, Maryland.

• Thursday, April 25, 11:15 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a panel on innovation in futures and derivatives markets at FIA’s Law & Compliance Division Conference. The panel will be moderated by Yvette Valdez at Latham & Watkins.  The event is at the Gaylord Hotel at National Harbor, Maryland.

• Friday, April 26, 5:00 p.m. – CFTC Chair Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at Syracuse University & Alumni Night in D.C. at the law firm of Morgan Lewis in Washington, D.C.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Monday, April 22, 11:00 a.m. – The Federal Trade Commission holds a Closed Commission meeting.

• Tuesday April 23, 2:00 p.m. – The Federal Trade Commission holds an Open Meeting to consider a rule banning noncompete clauses in business contracts.

• Wednesday, April 24, 10:00 a.m. – The Federal Trade Commission holds an informal hearing on a proposed hearing on proposed trade regulation rule on unfair and deceptive fees.

• Friday, April 26, 12:30 p.m. – FTC Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya gives a speech at the Loyola University School of Law’s 24th Annual Loyola Antitrust Colloquium in Chicago, Illinois.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Monday, April 22, 12:30 p.m.: The Institute for International Finance will hold a roundtable discussion with Dominique Laboureix, Chair of the EU’s Single Resolution Board, in Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, April 23, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “New SEC US Treasury Central Clearing Rules – Practical Implications and Planning Considerations.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Wednesday, April 23, 10:00 a.m.: The Bipartisan Policy Institute will hold a Fireside Chat with Housing and Urban Development Acting Secretary Adrianne Todman.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list. 

The Midwest Convenience Store & Energy Convention 2024

A Gathering of Some of America’s Greatest Small Business Entrepreneurs

I had the great privilege to speak at the Midwest Convenience Store & Energy Convention 2024 in St. Paul, Minnesota, this past week. The attendees really represent the heart and soul of American small business. It is truly amazing how critical what they do is to our daily lives, and I suspect many of us take it for granted the service they provide in keeping the broader economy flowing smoothly. We gas up, change our oil, get our coffee on the way to work, and maybe breakfast and lunch.

But I would argue they are also, in many ways, the first line of defense medically for us - where else do you go at any hour of the night to get medicines for your sick child or even yourself? You go to them first before a doctor’s office or even an “iffy” visit to an emergency room to deal with a sick family member. As one who had a chronically ill child for many years, I can attest to this fact.

My deep gratitude to the MCSC organizers for giving me the opportunity to not only speak at your convention but also spend time with your members and hear firsthand the many issues and ideas they have regarding politics and policy in this country. They are smart, common-sense folks—some of them running family operations that are more than a century old!

Recommended Weekend Reads

April 19 - 21, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

India

• A Short History of India in Eight Maps  The Economist

  In his decade in power Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, has centralized the state to an unprecedented extent. Yet his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) has failed to attract many voters in the more prosperous south. The regional divergence is not unique to the BJP. Throughout India’s long history, rulers have tried and failed to unite the subcontinent under central authority. The chief reason is India’s diversity, summed up in clichés about dozens of cuisines, hundreds of languages and thousands of gods. The clichés may be trite, but they are also useful. A whirlwind tour through 2,500 years of Indian history helps explain why.
  

• “Meet India’s Generation Z”  Foreign Policy

  India changes more in five years than many countries would in a quarter century. This is partly because it is still relatively young: The country gained independence just 76 years ago, and nearly half of its population is under the age of 25. As one would expect, then, much has happened in the five years since 2019, when Indian voters issued an overwhelming mandate to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in power.  But what do those aged 18 to 25 think about India’s future?
  

• “The Hindu Nationalist Foreign Policy – Under Modi, India is Becoming More Assertive”  Foreign Affairs

  As India enters into historic elections, and unlike in previous elections, foreign policy is a major issue. Today, more Indians care about their country’s place in the world than did so a decade ago, and the aspirations of average citizens are mirrored in their nation’s fortunes like never before. The BJP has used this new attention to craft a self-reinforcing message: if the party can catapult an “ordinary citizen” such as Modi to global prominence, it can do the same for a country that has languished in poverty and weakness. Similarly, if Modi can make India secure, prosperous, and widely respected, he can do the same for the Indian voter.

Geoeconomics 

• Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned? National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper uses the recent cross-country experience with quantitative tightening (QT) to assess the impact of shrinking central bank balance sheets. We analyze the experience in seven advanced economies (Australia, Canada, the Euro area, New Zealand, Sweden, the UK, and the US)—documenting different strategies and the substantive reduction in central bank balance sheets that have already occurred. Then we assess the macroeconomic and financial impact of QT announcements on yields and a range of other market prices. QT announcements increase government bond yields, steepening the yield curve and potentially signaling a greater commitment to raising policy interest rates, but have more limited effects on most other financial market indicators. Active QT has a larger impact than passive QT, particularly on longer maturities. The implementation of QT has been associated with a modest rise in overnight funding spreads and a decline in the “convenience yield” of government bonds, but QT transactions did not significantly affect the pricing and market liquidity of government debt securities. Finally, we evaluate who buys assets when central banks unwind balance sheets, an issue that will become increasingly important if central banks continue to reduce their security holdings while government debt issuance remains elevated. We find that increased demand by domestic nonbanks has largely compensated for reduced bond holdings by central banks. This series of cross-country results suggest that QT has had more of an impact than “paint drying” but far less than simply reversing the effects of the quantitative easing programs launched during periods of market stress. Looking ahead, although QT has been smooth to date, frictions could increase in the future so that QT quickly evolves into more like watching “water boil.”

Europe

• EP Spring 2024 Survey: Use Your Vote - Countdown to the European Elections EU

  The Parliament’s Spring 2024 Eurobarometer reveals strong interest among citizens in the upcoming European elections (6-9 June) and awareness of their significance in the current geopolitical context. The survey sheds light on Europeans’ voting behavior, their attitudes toward campaign topics, and their preferences for the priority values for the next term of the European Parliament. It focuses also on citizens’ perception of the EP and EU, their perspective on life in the EU, as well as on their opinions about the EU within the current global context.

Russia

• The Impact of Semiconductor Sanctions on Russia American Enterprise Institute

  After Russia again invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies restricted Russia’s access to semiconductors, aiming to disrupt the Kremlin’s defense industrial supply chains. Have these semiconductor controls worked? The secrecy of the Russian defense industrial base makes it difficult to answer this question fully, but this report examines the evidence to provide some tentative conclusions on the impact of tech export controls.

• The Five Futures of Russia: And How America Can Prepare for Whatever Comes Next Foreign Affairs

  Vladimir Putin happened to turn 71 last October 7, the day Hamas assaulted Israel. The Russian president took the rampage as a birthday present; it shifted the context around his aggression in Ukraine. Perhaps to show his appreciation, he had his Foreign Ministry invite high-ranking Hamas representatives to Moscow in late October, highlighting an alignment of interests. Several weeks later, Putin announced his intention to stand for a fifth term in a choiceless election in March 2024 and later held his annual press conference, offering a phalanx of pliant journalists the privilege of hearing him smugly crow about Western fatigue over the war in Ukraine. “Almost along the entire frontline, our armed forces, let’s put it modestly, are improving their position,” Putin boasted in the live broadcast.

China

• A Chinese Perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War: A Conversation with Dr. Zhao Hai CSIS ChinaPower Podcast

  In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Zhao Hai joins us to discuss China’s views on the Russia-Ukraine war and its broader implications for China. Dr. Zhao provides an assessment of how he thinks China perceives the evolving situation on the ground, emphasizing China’s concerns about the risk of further escalation between Russia and the West, potentially involving the use of nuclear weapons. He argues that the Ukraine crisis has heightened U.S.-Russia competition and speaks to how China views the conflict as a sign of the world order shifting towards one of multi-polarity. He also shared his assessment of the United States engaging in enhanced proxy warfare in Ukraine that could be used in the Indo-Pacific in the future. 

• The CCP’s Role in The Fentanyl Crisis The Select Committee on The Strategic Competition Between the United States and The Chinese Communist Party

  The House Committee this week released an in-depth report on the Chinese Government’s role in the Fentanyl trade and its impact on the U.S.  The fentanyl crisis is one of the most horrific disasters that America has ever faced. On average, fentanyl kills over 200 Americans daily, the equivalent of a packed Boeing 737 crashing every single day. Fentanyl is the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45 and a leading cause in the historic drop in American life expectancy. It has led to millions more suffering from addiction and the destruction of countless families and communities. The report charges that beyond the United States, fentanyl and other mass-produced synthetic narcotics from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are devastating nations around the world. It is truly a global crisis. The PRC, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is the ultimate geographic source of the fentanyl crisis. Companies in China produce nearly all of the illicit fentanyl precursors, the key ingredients that drive the global illicit fentanyl trade.

• Why China Remains Unlikely to Invade Taiwan The Interpreter

  The United States, and Washington DC in particular, is awash with expectations of war against China in the near future, most likely caused by a Chinese decision to forcibly annex Taiwan. Plenty of Americans — including senior military officers, academics, and politicians — think Chinese leader Xi Jinping sees war as the best option. Those making this argument typically say Xi is tired of waiting for unification to happen peacefully, sees a military window of opportunity, or has set a deadline for finishing the job. Some think China’s recent economic problems create an incentive for Beijing to launch a diversionary Taiwan war.
  

• China, Russia, and Iran Are Reviving the Age of Empires  Hal Brands/Bloomberg Opinion

  The ghosts of empire are haunting Eurasia. President Xi Jinping’s China is seeking to reclaim the power and privileges of the great dynasties that once bestrode Asia. President Vladimir Putin is channeling the memory and the methods of famous conquerors from Russia’s imperial past. Iran is using proxies, missiles, and other means to build a sphere of influence encompassing parts of the old Persian Empire. Not so long ago, much of the world was ruled by empires. If today’s revisionist states have their way, the future could resemble the past. 

The Economics of a Good Sleep

• Sleeping Our Way to Being Productive VoxEU

  Sleep is key to our physical and mental health. It also affects people’s employment and productivity. This column explores how the amount of weekly sleep influences employment, productivity, and the income of individuals in Germany. Each additional hour of sleep per week increases the probability of employment by 1.6 percentage points and weekly earnings by 3.4%. Sleep is partly the product of both public and private decisions and can be incentivized so that the negative economic effects of not sleeping enough are more salient to individuals.

• Americans Sleeping Less, More Stressed Gallup

  For the first time in Gallup polling since 2001, a majority of U.S. adults, 57%, say they would feel better if they got more sleep, while 42% say they get as much sleep as they need. This is nearly a reversal of the figures last measured in 2013, when 56% of Americans got the sleep they needed, and 43% did not. Americans’ perception that they aren’t getting enough sleep is borne out by the diminished number of hours of sleep they report getting per night.

The Global Week Ahead

April 14 - 21, 2024

Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel is sending shockwaves globally and is likely to scare global markets when they open on Monday morning.   It also makes the coming week highly unpredictable in terms of what to expect.  It was already scheduled to be a very busy week, with the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, the G7 Foreign Ministers scheduled to meet in Italy, and India’s massive six-week-long parliamentary elections getting underway (estimated 900 million+ voters). 

Now, world leader’s calendars are being scrambled – especially among the G7 leaders – as they seek to find a way to calm the situation in the Middle East.   But it is likely they will not be successful as Israel prepares for a likely massive strike-back at Iran. At this point, we see little chance of Israel not massively striking Iran, likely targeting Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, oil facilities, and leadership in Tehran.  We are watching the situation closely and sending our clients essential updates and insights.

The attack may have finally gotten the U.S. House of Representatives focused on finally passing a large military aid package for Israel, which is attached to a $62 billion Ukraine aid package.  We expect the bill to pass the House this week.

Also in the U.S. this week, former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York gets underway, the first time a current or former President has ever been tried for a crime.

As mentioned above, India’s much-anticipated national parliamentary elections get underway. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata (BJP) Party is expected to perform strongly, giving Modi a solid mandate to push through sweeping reforms in the coming year.   Out of a population of 1.4 billion, voter turnout is expected to reach 75 percent – more than 900 million Indians voting.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be primarily focused on U.S. data releases after last week’s unexpectedly strong inflation print.

U.S. industrial production, retail sales, and the publication of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be among the most watched reports.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI print, while in China, the latest Q1 GDP data is released.  Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation figures and the ZEW survey results will be released in Europe.

Below is everything else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is expected to meet today in an extraordinary session to discuss Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday and Sunday morning.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

• New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 15, 2024 

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings begin today.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• A jury trial for Donald Trump is scheduled to start. The former president is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records to facilitate a payment to adult actress Stormy Daniels, who claimed she had an affair with Trump in 2006.

• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala meets with President Biden at the White House.  They are expected to “reaffirm their resolute support for Ukraine.”   Later in the day, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani is scheduled to meet with President Biden (but this may be rescheduled due to Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday).

• The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.

• Chile will host the seventh meeting of the Forum of the Countries of Latin America and the Caribbean on Sustainable Development in Santiago. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in panel before the IMF-BOJ Conference: “Gender Diversity in the Workplace as a Key to Economic Growth."

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before hybrid Associates Meeting of the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR).

• USA Retail Sales (March)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Daly Speech

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (February)

• Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

• El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

• Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Machinery Orders (February)

• India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1

• Indonesia Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

• Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

• Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Energy Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels from April 16 to discuss how to advance sustainable energy infrastructure. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a lecture at the University College Dublin Economics Society in Dublin, Ireland.

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit 2024 in London.

• Ireland Construction PMI (March)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

• Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

• Poland Inflation Rate Final (March)

• Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

• Russia Building Permits (February)

• Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

• Israel Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

• Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

• Oman M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit (February)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Inflation Rate (March)

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings continue. 

• The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook along with Chapter 1 of its global financial stability report.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the charges used against the 330 defendants accused and convicted of storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

• Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presents the annual state budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, Washington, D.C.

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Monetary Policy During Periods of Uncertainty” at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington, D.C.

• Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)

• USA Housing Starts (March)/ Redbook (April/13)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/12)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is on a state visit to China, is scheduled to meet Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping.

• The Digital Silk Road Development Forum is being held in Xi'An, China.

• Philippine transport unions will hold nationwide strikes through April 16 and possibly beyond.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Import & Export Prices (March)

• China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)CH/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ NBS Press Conference

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The National Conservatism conference starts today and runs until tomorrow. Speakers include Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, former UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman, and GB News host Nigel Farage.

• EU President Ursula von der Leyen will give a speech at the High-level Conference on the European Pillar of Social Rights in La Hulpe, Belgium.

• Ukraine and Bulgaria will hold the second Black Sea Security Conference in Sofia, Bulgaria. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

• Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Euro Area Balance of Trade (February)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

• Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

• Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

• Belarus Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

• Oman Inflation Rate (March)

• Qatar Inflation Rate (March)

• Turkey Retail Sales (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Forum on People of African Descent organized by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights will take place in Geneva, Switzerland through April 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024 

Global

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.  G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet.

• The G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Capri, Italy. They will discuss Iran’s attack on Israel, the situation in Gaza, and the Ukraine War.

• The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. 

• The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is expected to release its State of World Population 2024 report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) travels to Colombia to meet with President Gustavo Petro.  They are expected to discuss protecting the Amazon, other environmental issues, the upcoming Venezuelan elections, and the Venezuelan suppression of opposition candidates.

• The Semafor World Economy Summit will be held in Washington, D.C., from April 18 to 20. Several leading global CEOs, senior government officials, and central bankers will speak at the summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve  Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a Fireside Chat at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak on "An Update From the Federal Reserve" before the South Franklin Circle Dialogues Series.

• USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April)/12/ MBA Purchase Index (April/12)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/12)/ Fed Beige Book/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

• Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

• Brazil Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Solomon Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

• Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

• India M3 Money Supply (April/05)

• China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• A special European Council meeting will be held in Brussels through April 18. The participants are expected to discuss a new European competitiveness deal and relations with Turkey.

• Croatia holds parliamentary elections.

  Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates virtually in the Executive Committee meeting of the Italian Banking Association (ABI).

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Institute for International Finance Executive Vice President Clay Lowery at the 2024 IIF Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy (IRFMP): "Monetary Policy Challenges During Uncertain Times" in Washington, D.C.

• Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

• Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (March)/ CPI Final (March)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

• Russia PPI (March)

• Belarus GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel M1 Money Supply (March)

• Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Southern and East Africa LPG Expo, which seeks to advance liquified petroleum gas as clean cooking energy in the subregion, begins in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

Thursday, April 18, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Middle East.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. OFAC licensing for the Venezuelan oil industry is scheduled to expire, placing sanctions back on the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference (Virtual)

• New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion before the Semafor World Economy Summit.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated armchair chat before the Prosperity Partnership Fort Lauderdale Meeting.  Later in the day, Bostic will speak on the economic outlook, monetary policy and real estate in a moderated armchair chat at the University of Miami Herbert Business School.

• USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/Existing Home Sales (March)/ CB Leading Index  (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/12)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ 5-Year TIPS Auction

• Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

• Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japanese Central Bank Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi will give a speech and meet with local leaders in Saga, Japan.

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/13)

• Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ RBA Bulletin/ Participation Rate (March)

• Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Consumer Protection Ministers held in Brussels through April 19. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2023 at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the 2024 EU-US Symposium in Washington, D.C.

• Euro Area New Car Registrations (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Construction Output (February)

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

• Spain Bonos Auction/ Obligacion Auction

• Italy Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 19, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference.

• Mexico Retail Sales (February)

• USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/19)

• Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• India begins the voting for parliamentary elections.   The voting will go on for six weeks.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Inflation Rate (March)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

• India Bank Loan Growth (April/05)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)/ Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q1/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

• Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

• Kazakhstan GDP (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden participates on a panel discussion on monetary policy responses to post-pandemic inflation at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

• Germany PPI (March)

• Great Britain Retail Sales (March)/ BoE Ramsden Speech

• Greece Current Account (February)

• Italy Construction Output (February)

• Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Slovenia PPI (March)

• Russia Current Account (February)

• Slovakia Current Account (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

• Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Ghana PPI (March)

Saturday, April 20, 2024 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Toga holds parliamentary and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Ecuador will hold a series of referendums on reforms to fight organized crime, which has become a major problem for the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Maldives holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

April 15 - 19, 2024

This week, Washington will be abuzz with the World Bank—International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, which will bring together central bank chiefs, finance ministers, and financial regulators from around the world.   

Several major think tank events will offer regulators and central bankers a platform to speak about financial regulatory matters. Most notably, the Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a panel discussion entitled “A Vision of the Future Financial System”  that will feature speakers including Agustín Carstens, Head of the Bank for International Settlements), Joachim Nagel, President, Deutsche Bundesbank, Roberto Campos Neto, Head of the Banco Central do Brasil, and Changyong Rhee, Head of the Bank of Korea. We would also point to the multiple events the Institute for International Finance (IIF) will hold in conjunction with the IMF-World Bank meetings. 

Congress will be busy this week with a number of hearings. The Senate Banking Committee will hold not one but two hearings, one looking at the housing market and the other focusing on the overall regulation of federal housing programs.   

Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, the House Financial Services Committee will examine the rise of ransomware and its threat to the financial system. They will also hold an oversight hearing on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s financials—all part of a long-running (and growing) level of discord between House Republicans and the CFPB’s overall policy direction, particularly around the regulation of card fees.

The SEC will hold its 43rd annual Small Business Forum, while the CFTC will see a multitude of speeches by commissions, most notably Chair Rostin Benham speaking at ISDA’s 38th Annual Meeting in Tokyo.

Below is a listing of all the other major regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, April 16, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee’s Housing, Transportation, and Community Development Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Challenges in Preserving the U.S. Housing Stock.”

• Thursday, April 18, 10:00 a.m.: The Senate Banking Committee will hold an oversight hearing entitled “Oversight of Federal Housing Regulators.” 

House of Representatives

• Tuesday, April 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Held for Ransom: How Ransomware Endangers Our Financial System.”  You can read the Committee Briefing Memorandum HERE.

• Tuesday, April 16, 10:15 a.m. – The House Committee on Education & The Workforce’s Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions hold a hearing entitled “ERISA’s 50th Anniversary: The Path to Higher Quality, Lower Cost Health Care.”

• Tuesday, April 16, 2:00 p.m.: The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Agency Audit: Reviewing CFPB Financial Reporting  & Transparency.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Tuesday, April 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Monetary Policy During Periods of Uncertainty” at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, April 16, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, Washington, D.C.

• Wednesday, April 17, 7:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve  Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a Fireside Chat at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 9:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference (Virtual)

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time (most of Treasury’s senior team will be fully engaged at the IMF-World Bank meetings all week).

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, April 16, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC’s 43rd Annual Small Business Forum will be held at the SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C. 

• Thursday, April 18, 10:55 a.m.: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce will attend the Florida Securities Dealers and Advisors 2024 Industry Outreach Program in Tampa, Florida.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Monday, April 15, 3:50 p.m. Tokyo Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will discuss global regulatory priorities at ISDA’s 38th Annual General Meeting in Tokyo, Japan.  A Q&A will follow his remarks.
  

• Wednesday, April 17, 11:05 a.m. Tokyo Time – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in an interview at ISDA’s 38th Annual General Meeting in Tokyo, Japan.

• Wednesday, April 17, 3:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat on recent CFTC developments and policy agenda hosted by the D.C. Bar and Steptoe LLP in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate as a lead discussant at the Institute of International Finance’s AI & Data Roundtable.  The Roundtable will feature AI leaders, policymakers, and financial service executives for a dialogue about new developments in artificial intelligence, links with data policy, and implications for growth and opportunity.

• Thursday, April 18, 2:30 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a panel discussion titled Enabling the Next Generation of Financial Markets and Innovation” at the Harvard Law School—Program on International Financial Systems (HLS-PIFS) Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States.

• Thursday, April 18, 3:35 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will deliver a keynote address at the 2024 Europe-US Symposium in Washington, D.C.

• Friday, April 19, 9:00 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate in a Digital Currency Roundtable hosted by the Institute of International Finance in Washington, D.C.

The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board (FASB)

• Tuesday & Wednesday, April 16 – 17 – FASB holds meeting.  The agenda includes Accounting and reporting of government land; Climate-related financial reporting; Commitments; Intangible assets; Leases; Omnibus amendments; Public-private partnerships; Reexamination of existing standards; Omnibus concepts amendments; Management's discussion and analysis; Software technology; Seized and forfeited digital assets; and Appointments panel.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Tuesday, April 16, 8:30 a.m. – The OCC holds its Minority Depository Institutions Advisory Committee Meeting in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• Thursday, April 18, 10:00 a.m. – The National Credit Union Administration holds a board meeting.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• Monday – Saturday, April 15 – 20 – The 2024 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank will be held in Washington, D.C.  

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Monday – Wednesday, April 15 – 17 – The American Bankers Association and the North Carolina Bankers Association host the American Mortgage Conference in Savannah, Georgia.

• Tuesday – Thursday, April 16-18 – ISDA holds its 38th Annual General Meeting in Tokyo, Japan.

• Tuesday, April 16, 2:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds their 13th IIF Cybersecurity Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

• Tuesday, April 16, 4:30 p.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a discussion on "Investing in Latin America and Brazil," focusing on "Brazil's tax reform and investment opportunities on ecological transition in Brazil and across Latin America."  Brazil’s Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, and the President of the Inter-American Development Bank, Ilan Goldfajn, will speak.

• Thursday, April 18, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an event entitled The Shifting Financial Landscape Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 9:15 a.m. – SIFMA holds the SIFMA Basel III Endgame Roundtable.  Featured speakers include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randy Quarles, and former FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams.

• Thursday, April 18, 1:30 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds the 2024 IIF Sustainable Finance Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events 

• Monday, April 15, 12:30 p.m. – The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12:30 p.m., on "International Financial Architecture Innovation and the Summit of the Future."

• Tuesday, April 16, 4:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Navigating the ‘Mid-Transition’ Period of the Low-Carbon Shift: The Critical Role of Finance Ministries” in Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, April 18, 8:30 a.m. – The American Consumer & Investor Institute hosts an event on regulating AI in financial services in Washington, D.C.  Speakers include Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), Representative Warren Davidson (R-OH), former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, ACII Executive Director Barbara Comstock and Dalia Blass, former head of the SEC’s investment management division. 

• Friday, April 19, 9:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Toward Reimagined Global Financial Architecture: Progress and Challenges”.

• Friday, April 19, 9:30 a.m. – The Center for Strategic and International Studies holds a discussion on "The Role of Fast Payment Systems in Addressing Financial Inclusion."

• Friday, April 19, 3:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a panel discussion entitled “A Vision of the Future Financial System.”  The speakers include Agustín Carstens (Bank for International Settlements), Joachim Nagel (President, Deutsche Bundesbank), Roberto Campos Neto (Banco Central do Brasil), Nandan M. Nilekani (Infosys; UIDAI (Aadhaar)) and Changyong Rhee (Bank of Korea)

Recommended Weekend Reads

April 12 - 15, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

China

• "As China’s Economy Falters, So Does Middle-Class Confidence"  NBC News

  At a restaurant in the Chinese capital that serves up low-cost meals to seniors, much of the crowd these days is decidedly less than senior. For Wang Ran, a 27-year-old designer, lunch at the restaurant in Beijing costs about half what she would normally pay — which makes a big difference as she downgrades her spending amid an economic slump in China that could have global ramifications.

• "No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition with China Must Be Won, Not Managed"  Foreign Affairs

  Chairman of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI), and former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger write that amid a presidency beset by failures of deterrence—in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Middle East—the Biden administration’s China policy has stood out as a relative bright spot. The administration has strengthened U.S. alliances in Asia, restricted Chinese access to critical U.S. technologies, and endorsed the bipartisan mood for competition. Yet the administration is squandering these early gains by falling into a familiar trap: prioritizing a short-term thaw with China’s leaders at the expense of a long-term victory over their malevolent strategy. The Biden team’s policy of “managing competition” with Beijing risks emphasizing processes over outcomes, bilateral stability at the expense of global security, and diplomatic initiatives that aim for cooperation but generate only complacency. 

Americas 

• “Should Investors Take a Sheinbaum Victory for Granted in Mexico?”  Americas Quarterly

  In a year in which about half of the adult population in the world will vote and several national elections are set to be dramatic, Mexico is a puzzle. On June 2, the country will vote for president, 128 federal senators and 500 congresspeople, governors in nine states (including Mexico City), and local congresses and municipalities—all in all, a whopping 20,000 public offices will be up for grabs.  Yet, markets would suggest Mexico is an oasis of tranquility, a “boring long,” so to speak. After rallying by 15% against the U.S. dollar in 2023, the Mexican peso has posted an additional 2.1% gain this year, the only major currency still outperforming the mighty greenback. Credit default swaps (CDS), which measure the cost of insuring against a government defaulting on its debts, tell a similar story: at 92 points, they are significantly lower than Brazil’s (144) and Colombia’s (149) and have been hovering below the 100 mark for the last 12 months.

•   “Canada Stuck In NATO Penalty Box Through 2030”   Politico

  Canada is not about to meet its NATO defense spending commitments anytime soon, as new spending plans fail to meet the 2 percent target all NATO members are required to spend (and which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau again committed to meeting in 2023). The latest budget suggests Canada will only hit the defense spend-to-GDP ratio requirement of 1.76 through 2030. 

International Finance and Technology

• "Chapter 2: Expanding Frontiers: Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Technology Diffusion" International Monetary Fund

  How can fiscal policies promote innovation and technology diffusion in a fiscally constrained world? Countries are implementing industrial policies to promote innovation in specific sectors amid security concerns. However, the IMF argues industrial policy is only advisable when targeted sectors generate measurable social benefits (such as lower carbon emissions or knowledge spillovers), implementation capacity is strong, and policies do not discriminate against foreign firms. A well-designed fiscal policy mix that supports innovation more broadly across sectors and emphasizes fundamental research can boost long-term growth for advanced economies. For less advanced economies, facilitating technology adoption with strategic investments and tax reforms should be the priority.

• "The New Quantum Technology Race"  Internationale Politik Quarterly

  Throughout history, technological advancements have bestowed states that are innovation leaders with a decisive edge over other states. The development of today’s internet, pioneered by the US Advanced Research Projects Agency, significantly enriched the United States, for example. It currently boasts seven of the world’s top 10 companies, which make their profits from the hardware and software for internet-connected devices.

U.S. 2024 Elections

• "The 2024 U.S. Election, Trust, and Technology: Preparing for a Perfect Storm of Threats to Democracy"  RAND Corporation

  Foreign governments interfered in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, while some domestic leaders alleged election fraud before voting even began. Assertions that the election was “stolen” gained so much traction that, as certification began, a crowd rallied and attacked the U.S. Capitol, causing damage, injury, and death. Messages discrediting the election results and the agencies and officials investigating the riot and election-related offenses have continued unabated, particularly on social media.

Economics 

• "How the Big Mac Index Relates to Overall Consumer Inflation"  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Blog

  The Big Mac index was created by The Economist magazine as an informal way of measuring the purchasing power parity between different countries and currencies. The idea is that in every country, the Big Mac sold at McDonald’s is the same. The price of the Big Mac should reflect the local price of ingredients, wages, and other expenses like advertising. Therefore, even though the Big Mac sandwich is the same in every country, its price differs.

Podcast Recommendation of the Week 

The “In Good Company” Podcast

Last week, the Wall Street Journal ran a fantastic profile of Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management (which has $1.6 trillion under management).  Tangen somehow finds time to run a podcast called “In Good Company,” where he interviews the biggest CEOs in the world – and gets them to share fascinating insights about themselves, their companies, and what they think about all sorts of things on their minds.  Tangen has interviewed Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon (who loves to grill all kinds of meats), former Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman (who revealed he would regularly get physically sick from all the stress of work), Elon Musk, Alibaba Founder Jack Ma, and many others.   Give it a listen – you won’t be disappointed.  It’s available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Spotify.

UBS’s ElectionWatch 2024

The Race, the World, and Investments April 4, 2024

I was delighted to be interviewed last week by UBS’s Chief Investment Officer Americas, Solita Marcelli, about the upcoming US elections. It was a fantastic conversation, and it was a true honor to be joined by former National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers and David Rubenstein, the Co-Founder of the Carlyle Group.

Markets are struggling to price in the impact of the November US elections for a number of reasons. First, the elections are still seven and a half months away. Polls are unfocused and suffering from a population that feels over-polled and weary of the constant campaign cycle in the US.

Additionally, while our house view is it is between a toss-up and leaning Democratic win for control of the House and a likely win for Republicans to control the Senate, we still have primaries to be held and need a clearer sense of candidates and campaign funding. All this will increasingly become clearer in the next two months.

Geopolitical issues often have little impact on presidential elections, but this year may be an anomaly. Progressive Democrats are deeply unhappy with President Biden’s policy toward Israel and the Gaza War. Increasingly, young Democrats seem to be drifting toward the Robert Kennedy, Jr. presidential campaign, which may upend all current thinking about who wins in November.

Add to this a general unhappiness among the electorate over the state of the economy, especially over sticky inflation (note the uptick in inflation numbers today - April 10 - unexpectedly rising 3.5 percent), which may drive voters to think of other candidates and even other political parties.

You can watch the whole interview HERE. I hope you find it informative and useful.