Recommended Weekend Reads
June 14 - 16, 2024
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.
Post-Election Mexico
The Long Shadow of Violence in Mexico’s Elections 35 West Podcast/Center for Strategic and International Studies
On June 2, nearly 60 million people cast their votes for the next president of Mexico, making it the largest election in Mexico’s history. However, the race was also marred by electoral violence, with more than three dozen candidates or prospective candidates murdered over the electoral season. Intimidation, coercion, and threats to family members further compelled many prospective candidates to withdraw from the race, illustrating the corrosive impact of violence and impunity for democratic institutions. In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Chris Dalby, Director of World of Crime and author of the new book CJNG – A Quick Guide to Mexico’s Deadliest Cartel. Together, they discuss Mexico's evolving criminal landscape, the causes and consequences of electoral violence in Mexico, and what to expect from the new Sheinbaum administration's security policy. They also delve into the ways the United States and Mexico can reset security cooperation which has deteriorated in recent years.
Populism’s Grip on Mexico: A Conversation with Denise Dresser Foreign Affairs Podcast
Earlier this month, Claudia Sheinbaum won a sweeping victory in Mexico’s presidential election. Although a lot of the coverage framed the results as a win for women and progressive politics, the story is far more complicated. Mexico’s democracy is in trouble, warns Denise Dresser, a political analyst in Mexico. For years, Dresser has watched Sheinbaum’s party—and its previous leader, Andrés Manuel López Obrador—govern through polarization and the erosion of democratic institutions, even as the country struggles with violence, corruption, and persistent inequality. Dresser is a professor of political science at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. There is a chance that Sheinbaum will chart a different course. But if not, Dresser worries that Mexico could face an autocratic future.
Inside Mexico’s anti-avocado militias The Guardian
The spread of the avocado is a story of greed, ambition, corruption, water shortages, cartel battles and, in a number of towns and villages, a fierce fightback.
Latin America’s Big Opportunity Shannon O’Neil/Council on Foreign Relations
Over the last three decades, economic growth in Central Europe, East and Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa has outpaced growth in Latin America, where most economies have actually become less sophisticated and diversified. But now, current global trends are creating an opportunity for a long-delayed takeoff across Latin America.
The UK Elections
Who’s Ahead in the British Polls? A Day by Day UK Election Tracker The Economist
With the UK general election being held on July 4, here is a link to The Economist’s special election website showing where the UK political parties stand in the polls. As of June 13th, Labour is leading the ruling Conservatives by more than 20 percentage points. The other parties include the Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, Reform Party, and several smaller fringe parties) stand in the polls.
How Nigel Farage Blew up the UK Election Politico EU
Two weeks ago, Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit movement, was looking at his latest vanity project looked as a likely busted flush. Now it has the potential to upend the U.K. election — and reshape the future of British politics for good. For the first time on Thursday evening, an opinion poll from one of Britain’s most respected pollsters put Farage’s startup venture, Reform UK, ahead of its long-standing mainstream rival, the Conservative Party.
NATO Policy
Developing An Economic Security Agenda for NATO War on the Rocks
As the NATO Summit in Washington DC approaches in July, the authors argue he assembled leaders should therefore initiate a NATO Economic Deterrence Initiative aimed at fortifying economic resilience and deterrence capabilities across the alliance. This initiative should include proposals to revitalize consultations, intelligence sharing, and policy coordination on economic security, adapting the alliance to a changing global landscape and sustaining the cohesion and unity that underpin collective defense. By reintegrating economic security into its strategic considerations, NATO can ensure a more comprehensive and resilient deterrent posture for the future.
U.S. Elections
2024 Election Outlook (June 2024) The Tiber Creek Group
Leading Washington lobbying firm Tiber Creek offers a superb overview of the state of the 2024U.S. elections, analyzing the Presidential, House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races and all the many nuances that is making this election season like no other in recent U.S. history.
RFK Jr. on Polluters, Falconry, and Assassinations The MeatEater Podcast
If you not familiar with the MeatEater Show or MeatEater Podcast, they are the wildly popular outdoors hunting television show and podcast hosted by Steven Rinella. Rinella is an American outdoorsman, conservationist, writer, and chef. In this podcast, he talks with independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Among the topics discussed: Brain worms (which Kennedy has suffered from) and bonding over parasites; getting mercury poisoning from eating all the fish you harvest; How Kennedy raised homing pigeons at age 7 and going on to become a master falconer; fighting polluters to keep water clean; making a list of every bad thing you ever did; focusing on what matters to people; government-subsidized vs. free market energy sources; Secret Service security; and more.
Geoeconomics
The Big Threat to Dollar Dominance is American Dysfunction Steven Kamin &Mark Sobel/Financial Times
In the 1960s, French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing lamented the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege”, longing for an international monetary system less reliant on the dollar and the shackles of US economic policy. In 2009, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China called for de-dollarization and a multipolar regime with an internationalized renminbi. Emerging markets joined the chorus, criticizing the spillovers from Fed monetary policy. But the wistful yearnings from seemingly every quarter of the world for the emergence of a non-dollar alternative system miss the point. Instead of reimagining the international monetary system, the focus should be on strengthening the underlying drivers and dynamics of the global economy.
Food Policy in a Warming World Allan Hsiao, Jacob Moscono & Karthik Sastry/NBER
Do governments systematically intervene in agricultural markets in response to climate shocks? If so, what are the aggregate and distributional consequences? We construct a global dataset of agricultural policies and extreme heat exposure by country and crop since 1980. We find that extreme heat shocks to domestic production led to increased consumer assistance. This effect is persistent, primarily implemented via border policies, and stronger in election years when politicians are particularly responsive to constituent demands. Shocks to foreign production led to increased producer assistance, consistent with policymakers' targeting redistribution rather than price stabilization. Interpreted via a model, the estimates imply that policy responses almost fully stabilize prices in shocked markets, reducing losses to domestic consumers by 97% while increasing those to domestic producers and foreign consumers by 55% and 105%, respectively. Responsive policy exacerbates overall welfare losses from projected end-of-century climate shocks by 14%.
Sleep: Educational Impact and Habit Formation National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: There is growing evidence on the importance of sleep for productivity, but little is known about the impact of interventions targeting sleep. In a field experiment among U.S. university students, we show that incentives for sleep increase both sleep and academic performance. Motivated by theories of cue-based habit formation, our primary intervention couples personalized bedtime reminders with morning feedback and immediate rewards for sleeping at least seven hours on weeknights. Our results demonstrate that incentives to sleep can be a cost-effective tool for improving educational outcomes.
Technology
The Big-Tech Clean Energy Crunch Is Here Wired
As the world’s biggest companies race to build the infrastructure necessary to enable artificial intelligence, even remote Scottish wind farms are becoming indispensable. In Europe last year, $79.4 million was spent on new data center projects, according to research firm Global Data. Already in 2024, there are signs that demand is accelerating. Today Microsoft announced a $3.2 billion bet on Sweden data centers. Earlier this year, the company also said it would double its data center footprint in Germany, while also pledging a $4.3 billion data center investment for AI infrastructure in France. Amazon announced a network of data centers in the state of Brandenburg as part of a $8.5 billion investment in Germany, later dedicating another $17.1 billion to Spain. Google said it would spend $1.1 billion on its data center in Finland to drive AI growth.
Catalyzing Crisis: A Primer on Artificial Intelligence, Catastrophes, and National Security Center for a New American Security
The arrival of ChatGPT in November 2022 initiated both great excitement and fear around the world about the potential and risks of artificial intelligence (AI). In response, several AI labs, national governments, and international bodies have launched new research and policy efforts to mitigate large-scale AI risks. However, growing efforts to mitigate these risks have also produced a divisive and often confusing debate about how to define, distinguish, and prioritize severe AI hazards. This categorical confusion could complicate policymakers’ efforts to discern the unique features and national security implications of the threats AI poses—and hinder efforts to address them. This report aims to: Demonstrate the growing importance of mitigating AI’s catastrophic risks for national security practitioners, clarify what AI’s catastrophic risks are (and are not), and introduce the dimensions of AI safety that will most shape catastrophic risks.
Leadership and Psychology
CIA Clinical Psychologist Ursula Wilder on Profiling World Leaders Intelligence Matters Podcast
In this episode of Intelligence Matters, host and former CIA Director Michael Morell speaks with Ursula Wilder, a clinical psychologist at the Central Intelligence Agency, about why intelligence agencies conduct psychological profiles of world leaders, and how past policymakers have used what they have learned to make strategic decisions. Wilder, who also worked in CIA's counterterrorism center and Medical and Psychological Assessments unit, explains the "dark tetrad" of personality -- narcissism, paranoia, Machiavellianism and sadism -- and how those traits can influence how leaders make decisions and engage in negotiations. She and Morell also discuss how policymakers respond to psychological profiles compiled by government agencies.