The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

July 23 - 30, 2023

While most of the capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are going quiet this week or at the end of this week for summer vacations throughout August, it will still be busy in politics and economics. 

The locus of events geopolitically is in Asia this week.  Both the US Secretary of State and Defense Secretary are in Asia for meetings – Secretary of State Blinken in Tonga and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Papua New Guinea (both to discuss bilateral security agreements) before they meet up in Australia for the US-Australia ministerial meetings to discuss defense and security issues in the region.  French President Emmanuel Macron will also be in the area, visiting the French territory of New Caledonia to discuss enhanced economic ties.  All this occurs as Taiwan holds massive defense drills testing the military ability to defend against a potential Chinese invasion and/or blockade.  Civilians participate, too, as they practice shelter-in-place exercises.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the 2nd Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg.  The Summit was initially scheduled in Africa but was rescheduled to prevent warrants placed by the International Criminal Court on Putin from being served.  While the Summit, in which an estimated 43 African leaders come together, is scheduled to cover a wide range of issues, the dominant issue will be Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the potentially dire implications for African and Middle East food security.  Putin now appears to be attempting to broker a new deal that cuts Ukrainian grain and wheat from being exported and Russia essentially taking over as the primary supplier to Africa.  

On the global economic radar screen this week, it is all about central banks and interest rates.  The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan all meet to decide whether to keep rates in place or raise them again.  All this comes as markets watch a flood of flash PMIs worldwide (amid a hectic earnings week).

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 23, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant To Report (NSTR)

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The UK

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Israel’s parliament (Knesset) is expected to hold its final vote on the controversial judicial reform legislation. 

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Monday, July 24, 2023

Global

  • The BRICS National Security Advisors and High Representatives on National Security Meeting will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa, through July 25.  This is in advance of the BRICS Leaders Meeting that will take place in August.

  • UN Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Rome to participate in the UN Food Systems Summit +2 Stocktaking Moment. The high-level event is meant to build on the momentum of the 2021 Food Systems Summit. While in Rome, the Secretary-General will also meet with the President of the Republic of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, and the President of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, as well as with other leaders who are attending the summit. The UN Deputy Secretary-General, Amina J. Mohammed, will also participate in the event. On the margins of the conference, the Deputy Secretary-General will meet with H.E. Mr. Antonio Tajani, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy as well as heads of delegations attending the conference.

  • The World Trade Organization (WTO) has a General Council meeting in Geneva through July 25.

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)

  • Canada Wholesale Sales (June)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Jibun Bank Services & Manufacturing PMIs (July)

  • Australia Judo Bank Services & Manufacturing PMIs (July)

  • Singapore Inflation (June), CPI (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

  • France HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMIs (July)

  • Spain PPI (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi will attend the 13th Meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers and High Representatives on National Security in Johannesburg, South Africa.  He will then travel to Nigeria, Kenya, and Turkey for high-level meetings.

  • The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk,  will conduct a two-day official mission to Chad through July 26.  During his visit, he will meet with senior Government officials as well as human rights representatives and members of political parties and civil society.  Chad has seen a huge influx of Sudanese refugees fleeing the violence which broke out two months ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)

  • Ghana interest rate decision

 

Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Markets Committee begins two days of closed meetings.

  • US Redbook (July 22), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (May), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (July), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/Manufacturing Shipments Index/fed Services Index (July)

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (June)

  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July), IPCA mid-month CPI (July)

  • Mexico Economic Activity (May)

  • Argentina Retail Sales (May)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea GDP (Q2)

  • Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Loan Growth (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels to discuss Ukrainian imports and their impact on EU farm markets.  This comes in the wake of Russia withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  While Ukraine struggles to figure out how to move its agricultural exports out, Poland, Romania, and other EU countries are furious at the impact it is having on prices within the EU and the negative impact it is having on farmers. 

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Bank Lending Survey

  • Germany Ifo Current Conditions & Expectations (July)

  • UK CBI Business Optimism Index (Q3), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (May)

  • Turkey Business Confidence (July), Capacity Utilization (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Tunisia Republic Day, commemorating the vote in 1957 abolishing the monarchy and establishing the country as a republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Central Bank leading economic indicator

  • Ghana mid-term budget

  • Zambia mid-term budget

  • Nigeria interest rate decision

  • Lesotho interest rate decision

 

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, is scheduled to appear in court to plead guilty to charges of tax evasion and gun charges in a Wilmington, Delaware federal court.

  • Cuba celebrates National Rebellion Day, marking the day when Fidel Castro sited as when the revolution began in 1953.  On that day, Castro, along with 136 insurgents, laid siege to the military unit in Santiago de Cuba.  The raid failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate decision & press conference with  Fed Chair Jay Powell;

  • US New Home Sales (June), MBA Mortgage Indexes (July 21)

  • Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

  • Brazil Current Account (June), FDI (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force will host French Air Force units for their first bilateral jet training exercise.  The drills go through July 28 and will take place at Nyutabaru Air Base in Miyazaki, Japan. 

  • Today is Maldives Independence Day, celebrating when the country no longer was a protectorate of Britain and granted autonomy.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Coincident Index (May), Leading Economic Index (May)

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)

  • Australia Inflation (Q2), Monthly /CPI Indicator (June), RBA CPIs (Q2)

  • Singapore Industrial Production (June)

  • India M3 Money Supply (July 14)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The 2nd Russia-Africa Summit takes place in St. Petersburg, Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the summit (which originally was scheduled to take place in Africa but was rescheduled to avoid warrants placed by the International Criminal Court on Putin from being served).  The Summit comes in the wake of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative – a move which will have potentially grave consequences on African food security.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Loans to Households (June), Loans to Companies (June), M3 Money Supply (June)

  • France Consumer Confidence (July), Unemployment (June)

  • UK New Car Production (June)

  • Russia Industrial Production (June), Corporate Profits (May)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Liberia Independence Day, celebrating when the country was founded in 1822 as a haven for freed African-American slaves. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Mozambique Central Bank interest rate decision  

 

Thursday, July 27, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the Central African Republic sanctions.  The Security Council is also scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.  

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US GDP (Q2), Durable Goods Orders (June), Goods Trade Balance (June), Wholesale Inventories (June), Retail Inventories (June), Initial Jobless Claims (July 22), PCE Prices (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (June), Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (July)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)

  • Brazil PPI (June), Federal Tax Revenues (June), Net Payrolls (June)

  • Mexico Unemployment (June), Balance of Trade (June)

  • Argentina Consumer Spending (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Thailand’s National Assembly is expected to hold yet another vote for prime minister. Last week, conservatives and military-appointed senators in Parliament voted to block the frontrunner for the job, Pita Limjaroenrat, from being nominated again for the post.

  • The APEC Business Advisory Council meets in Manila, the Philippines.

  • Today is the 70th anniversary of the armistice being signed to end the Korean War (technically, it is a cease-fire, and North Korea is still at war with South Korea and the US).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (June)

  • Australia Export/Import Prices (Q2)

  • Singapore Unemployment (Q2)

  • Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer and Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen in Salzburg, Austria.

  • EU Health Ministers will hold an informal meeting through July 28 in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.  They will focus on the Spanish presidency's priorities of implementing new initiatives focused on prevention and healthy lifestyles, strengthening the capacities of health systems, and developing new EU strategies in this field.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (August)

  • UK CBI Distributive Trades (July)

  • Spain Unemployment (Q2), Retail Sales (June)

  • Italy Business Confidence (July), Consumer Confidence (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey.  Netanyahu’s visit comes days after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas visiting for meetings with Erdogan.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, FX Reserves (July 21)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa PPI (June)

  • Zambia inflation (July), Trade Balance (June)

  • Malawi Central Bank interest rate decision 

 

Friday, July 28, 2023

Global

  • The G20 Environment and Climate Sustainability Ministers will meet in Chennai, India.

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (HoMC).  

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will chair a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the US Treasury.  They are expected to discuss: An update on the work of the Council’s Nonbank Mortgage Servicing Task Force, an update on the Council’s Climate-related Financial Risk Committee, and an update on developments in the banking sector.  The preliminary agenda for the public session includes an update on the Council’s Climate-related Financial Risk Committee and an update on the transition from LIBOR.

  • Peru celebrates Independence Day, the day when the Declaration of Independence from Spain was announced in 1821.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US PCDE Price Index (June), Personal Spending (June), Employment Cost Index (Q2), PCE Price Index (June), Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations/5-year Inflation Expectations (July)/Consumer Expectations (July)/Current Conditions Reports (July)

  • Canada GDP (May), Budget Balance (April & May)

  • Brazil Nominal Budget Balance, Bank Lending (June), IGP-M Inflation (July), Unemployment (June)

  • Mexico Fiscal Balance (June)

  •  

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Hong Kong High Court will hand down a decision as to whether an injunction outlawing a song associated with the 2019 democracy protests is legal.  The Hong Kong government put out a broad injunction banning anyone from “broadcasting, performing, printing, publishing, selling, or offering for sale, distributing, disseminating, displaying or reproducing” the song.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report, CPI (July)

  • India Bank Loan Growth (July 14), Deposit Growth (July 14), Infrastructure Output (June)

  • Australia PPI (Q2), Retail Sales (June)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (June), Export& Import Prices (June), PPI (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Gatwick Airport in London will see workers go on strike for four days over pay.

  • San Marino celebrates the Fall of Fascism Day and Freedom Day, a national holiday.  It marks the day in 1942 when San Marino was liberated.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Economic Sentiment (July), Industrial Sentiment (July), Selling Price Expectations (July), Services Sentiment (July), Consumer Confidence (July)

  • Germany Import Prices (July), Inflation (July)

  • France GDP (Q2), Household Consumption (June), Inflation (June), PPI (June)

  • Spain GDP (Q2), Inflation (July), Business Confidence (July)

  • Italy PPI (June), Industrial Production (May)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa trade balance (June)

 

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Sunday, July 30, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Independence Day in Vanuatu, marking the day in 1980 when they were granted their independence from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia celebrates Naval Day.  Traditionally, the country shows off its latest weapons, ships, and aircraft, but it is not clear what will happen this year due to the Ukrainian invasion.  While on paper, Russia has the second-largest naval fleet in the world.  But the reality is many of those ships are small - Russia currently has only one aircraft carrier (to the US Navy’s eleven super-carriers) – and they place most of their focus on nuclear submarines, although that has reportedly been cut back due to the costs of the Ukraine invasion.

Economic Reports/Events –

NSTR

  • NSTR 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Central African Republic will hold a referendum on changing the constitution to allow incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to run for a third term in 2025.

  • Today is Enthronement Day in Morocco, celebrating the day King Mohammed VI took the throne in 1999.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly
Previous

Election 2024: Opening Salvos
Next

US Financial Regulatory Week Ahead