The Global Week Ahead

July 9 - 16, 2023

The world marked the 500 days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine yesterday.  Since then, the geopolitical and geo-economic world has changed considerably.  And this coming week will highlight how much it has changed as the NATO Leaders Summit convenes in Vilnius, Lithuania.  The leaders are expected to bolster their commitment to supporting Ukraine militarily and financially and discuss a path for Ukraine to join NATO.  We will be watching closely to see if President Biden meets with Turkish President Recep Erdogan to help seal an agreement to allow Sweden to join NATO.  Also, during the Summit, the leaders of the NATO nations will approve a new defense strategy for the first time since the end of the Cold War.

Also happening at the end of next week will be US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry traveling to Beijing for the first set of talks in over a year, another indication of improving relations between the US and China.  Kerry's trip follows the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

On the economic radar screen this week, G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Gandhinagar, India, through July 16.  One of the key issues they intend to address is food and fertilizer security issues.  This will be particularly important as the Black Sea Initiative, overseen by the United Nations and allowing critical agricultural and fertilizer exports to flow from Ukraine and Russia, expires on July 17.  Russia is threatening to withdraw from the agreement unless certain sanctions are lifted.  As of this writing, there are unconfirmed reports Turkey – who helped broker the deal – has said they may provide Naval escorts for Ukrainian shipments if Russia pulls out, which would be seen as a significant political blow to Russian President Putin's strategy.

Also, this week, we will watch a flurry of important reports in the US, EU, and China.  In the US, we will watch the latest CPI report and China's inflation numbers and trade figures.   The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book, while the Bank of England will release its financial stability report.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 9, 2023

Global

·       Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden will leave to travel to London to meet with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and King Charles III, Lithuania for the NATO summit, and Finland for a U.S.-Nordic Leaders’ summit.

·       Senior officials from the US Trade Representative and US Commerce Department will travel to Busan, South Korea, for the fourth negotiating round of the Ind-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) through July 15. 

·       Today is Independence Day in Argentina, marking the day in 1816 when the Congress of Tucumán declared the independence of the United Provinces of South America, thus creating Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare will travel to China for a week-long series of meetings.  The Solomon Islands, home to about 700,000 people, has become a focal point of China-U.S. rivalry in the Pacific. Under Sogavare, it switched its diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taiwan in 2019 and signed a secretive security pact with China last year, alarming the United States and allies such as Australia. 

·       Uzbekistan holds presidential elections.

·       Palau celebrates Constitution Day, marking the day the country decided not to join the rest of Micronesia and instead adopted its own Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Berlin for talks on trade and mutual security and overall Indo-Pacific security policy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Leaders’ Summit will be held in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, July 10, 2023

Global

·       The Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the UN Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).  

·       The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals Report 2023: Special Edition will be released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress comes back into session after being out the last two weeks for home business and Independence Day vacation.

·       The Bahamas celebrates Independence Day, marking the date the country won its independence from the UK in 1973.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on bank capitalization rules at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Brookings Institution Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks virtually on the economic and policy outlook before the University of California, San Diego 2023 Economics Roundtable Lecture Series: "An Update from the Federal Reserve with Loretta Mester."

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in the "National and Metro Atlanta Economies" armchair conversation before the Cobb Chamber of Commerce Marquee Monday.

·       US Wholesale Inventories (May), Consumer Inflation Expectations (June), Consumer Credit Change (May)

·       Canada Building Permits (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Ministerial meeting and the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia.  Among the topics to be discussed will be security in the Korean Peninsula.  This is one of the few international or regional forums where North Korea participates, as does the US, Russia, China, and the EU.

·       Today is Political Flag Day in Mongolia, the main state holiday of the nation. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (June), PPI (June), Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Japan Current Account (May), Banking Lending (June), Eco Watchers Survey (June)

·       Australia Building Permits (May)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hosts a meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, between Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson seeking to finalize a deal where Turkey approves Sweden’s membership in NATO in advance of this week’s NATO Summit. 

·       President Joe Biden meets with King Charles II at Buckingham Palace in London and then with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London.  Among the issues Biden is expected to discuss with Sunak is a potential US-UK Free Trade Agreement.

·       German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will hold talks with her Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi in advance of the EU-Japan Summit in Brussels later this week.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with Gulf Cooperation Council as part of the Gulf-Russian strategic dialogue in Moscow.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  They are expected to discuss the EU’s long-term budget.

·       The EU Environment ministers hold informal meetings through July 11 in Valladolid, Spain.   They will discuss biodiversity, soil, and water and how to conduct joint management of these issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will give speeches at The annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner being held at the Mansion House in London.

·       UK BRC Retails Sales Monitor (June)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment (May

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)

·       Tanzania Inflation (June)

·       Rwanda Inflation (June)

Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Global

·       The International Energy Agency will release its 2023 Critical Minerals Market Review.

·       The UN Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates virtually in moderated a discussion on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before a National Association of Business Economics.

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (June), Redbook (July 8), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (July)

·       Brazil Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to Japan for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machine Tools Orders (June)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (July), NAB Business Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2023 NATO Summit takes place in Vilnius, Lithuania.  Leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine and, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, will approve a new defense plan while encouraging increased defense spending by all members.  A number of leaders from strategic allied nations who are not NATO members are expected to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. 

·       EU energy ministers hold an informal set of meetings through July 12 in Valladolid, Spain. They are expected to discuss the integration and digitalization of internal energy markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Germany Inflation (June), CPI (June), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       UK Unemployment (May)

·       Italy Industrial Production (May)

·       Russia Current Account (Q2)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)

·       Turkey Current Account (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US – Africa Business Summit begins and runs through July 14 in Gaborone, Botswana.  A number of leading US CEOs and US Government officials will be in attendance.

·       African trade ministers will gather to meet for the 54th African Trade Ministers Meeting under the auspices of the African Continental Free Trade Area in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

·       Namibia Inflation (June)

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Global

·       The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization will launch its new State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report.

·       The UN Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on Colombia.   

·       The UN will hold a hybrid launch of the UN-Energy Policy Brief on a Global Roadmap for the Just and Inclusive Clean Cooking Transition. This event is being organized by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank in collaboration with the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book release (2:00 p.m.)

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in "Banking Solvency and Monetary Policy" panel before the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute: Macro, Money and Financial Frictions” in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks on "FedNow" before a session on Instant Payment Systems before the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute: Macro, Money and Financial Frictions," in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       White House National Economic Director Lael Brainard will give a speech at the Economic Club of New York, Harvard Club, New York.

·       Bank of Canada holds policy interest rate meeting.  Afterward, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers hold a press conference.

·       US Inflation (June), CPI (June), MBA Mortgage Indexes (July 7), WASDE Report

·       Mexico Industrial Production (May)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kiribati celebrates National Day, marking the date the nation located in the central Pacific Ocean was granted its independence by the UK.  Kiribati is part of the Pacific Island known as Micronesia and is where the famous World War II battle of the Tarawa Atoll took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds Monetary Policy Review.

·       Australian Reserve Bank Governor Lowe will speak on the “Reserve Bank Review and Monetary Policy.”

·       China New Yuan Loans (June), Outstanding Loan Growth (June), Total Social Financing (June), M2 Money Supply (June)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (May), PPI (June)

·       India Inflation (June), Manufacturing Production (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England publishes its Financial Stability Report.

·       ECB Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel at the NBER conference "Summer Institute 2023 - Macro, Money and Financial Frictions" in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. 

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (June)

·       Spain CPI (June)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (May), Inflation (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation (June)

Thursday, July 13, 2023

Global

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti(BINUH). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in Sudan.      

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden meets with the Prime Ministers of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland at the US-Nordic Leaders’ Summit in Helsinki.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the Economic Outlook At the Money Marketeers Speech, New York, N.Y.

·       US PPI (June), Jobless Claims (July 8), Monthly Budget Statement (June)

·       Argentina Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand votes to approve a new prime minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       South Korea Reserve Bank Inflation Decision, Export & Import Prices (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation (July)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.  Modi has been invited as the Guest of Honor at the Bastille Day Parade being held on July 14 – a rare exception as France does not invite foreign dignitaries every year to celebrate the holiday and Parade.  The event will also mark the 25th anniversary of the French-Indian Strategic Partnership.  To further celebrate the event, Indian soldiers will march in the parade.  Defense cooperation will be a major theme of the visit.  Additionally, a large group of Indian CEOs will accompany Modi on the trip.

·       The EU-Japan Summit takes place in Brussels through July 14.  The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, representing the EU, will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.  They are expected to discuss international and regional developments – including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine – China, and the Indo-Pacific, cooperation on security issues, and economic security.

·       The EU Social Affairs ministers will hold informal meetings through July 14 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, marking the day when the Berlin Congress recognized the country as an independent state in 1878.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. 

·       ECB release minutes of June meeting.

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (May)

·       Germany Current Account (May)

·       UK GDP (May), Manufacturing Production (May), Goods Trade Balance (May), Industrial Production (May), Balance of Trade (May), Construction Output (May), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)

·       France Inflation (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (May), FX Reserves (July 7)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (May), Gold Production (May) 

Friday, July 14, 2023

Global

·       The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Gandhinagar, India, through July 16.  One of the key issues they intend to address is food and fertilizer security issues.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: sexual violence in conflict. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (July), Import Prices/Export Prices (June)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), New Motor Vehicles Sales (May)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June 30)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launches the Chandrayaan-3, a lunar mission to study aspects of the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Industrial Production (May), Capacity Utilization (May)

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June),  WPI Manufacturing (June), WPI Fuel (June), WPI Inflation (June), WPI Food Index (June)

·       Singapore GDP (Q2)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts his annual summer press conference to discuss domestic and foreign policy issues in Berlin.

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Markets Council (Ecofin) will meet in Brussels. ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates on behalf of the ECB.   They are expected to discuss the long-term EU budget 2021-2027 and recovery package, EU solidarity with and financial support for Ukraine, and the EU response to Russia’s invasion.   

·       Eurozone Balance of Trade (May)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Botswana Inflation (June)

Saturday, July 15, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (June), Auto Production (June), FDI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Democracy and National Unity Day, a national holiday commemorating the failed coup attempt in 2016.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, July 16, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry will travel to China for talks with his counterparts to discuss resuming joint-climate efforts.  This follows the visit last week of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the trip two weeks ago Secretary of State Antony Blinken made to Beijing.  Joint talks over climate were suspended after then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) made a high-profile visit to Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       American Samoa celebrates Manu’a Cession Day, a public holiday marking the day when the Islands of Manu decided to join the rest of American Samoa and become a US-held territory.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida visits Saudi Arabia for talks with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salem.  Kishida will possibly also travel to the UAE and Qatar, all in an effort to bolster oil supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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