Recommended Weekend Reads
September 8 - 10, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Indo Pacific
“India’s Strategic Evolution” Center for Strategic and International Affairs “The Asia Chessboard” Podcast
The podcast begins by examining India’s strategic outlook since the end of the Cold War, considering India’s history, the evolution of its economic model, and shifts in the political perspectives and priorities of the Indian government. The participants turn to India’s role in BRICS – examining the relationship between India and China within the organization, the reasoning behind India's participation in BRICS, and the implications of the August 2023 BRICS summit. Next, they discuss Delhi’s changing relationship with Taipei and expanding engagement with Japan and Australia. The conversation concludes with an assessment of what India wants for its strategic future and how it would interact with the international world order.
“US-led effort to diversify Indo-Pacific supply chains away from China runs counter to trends” Peterson Institute for International Economics
The global economy is threatened by the potential for another devastating pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a belligerent China, all of which have raised concerns about the resilience of worldwide supply chains. Hence, an important outcome of the US-initiated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) negotiations is a proposed supply chain agreement, the outlines of which were published by the US Department of State after negotiations were concluded in May in Jakarta. But diversifying the region’s supply chains—an objective repeated by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during her Beijing visit in July—could prove elusive.
Africa
“African Energy Boom Sparks Power Grab in Senegal” Real Clear World
As Senegal stands on the cusp of an energy boom with its recent discovery of substantial oil and natural gas reserves, the nation faces a pivotal crossroads between economic prosperity and the risk of descending into autocracy. The energy boom's significance extends beyond Africa toward Europe’s ongoing struggle with Russian aggression, holding promise to help European nations reduce Russian oil and natural gas influence with a new supplier. This juncture also comes at a time when governments with strong Western ties across Africa are falling following a series of coups, amplifying concern for Senegal, a former French colony with strong Western ties dealing with its own growing instability. With the government’s ongoing enforcement of crackdowns and imprisonment of opposition members ahead of next year’s election, Senegal’s political institutions are in jeopardy.
“Africa’s ‘Coup Belt,’ Russia, and the Waning Global Order” European Council on Foreign Relations
Coups d’états have returned to Africa. In the 1990s and 2000s, the number of forced takeovers of power on the continent fell, but the figure began to creep back up around 15 years ago. This deterioration has come to particular prominence with the emergence of a ‘coup belt’ spanning from Sudan to Niger (and mostly recently Gabon), where eight coups have taken place in the last three years. The drivers behind coups range from state fragility to weak economic development. But such factors were also a constant in the decades immediately after the end of the Cold War – when Africa experienced fewer coups. The overlooked factor is the weakening of global order and the coup-enabling international environment it has created. Policymakers should consider, in particular, the role that activist ‘middle powers’ and Russia are now playing in taking advantage of an increasingly lawless international setting.
Geo-Economics
“Elevating the Role of Critical Minerals for Development and Security” Center for Strategic and International Studies
Over the next few decades, the role that copper and critical minerals play in achieving the energy transition, spurring economic development, and strengthening national security will continue to grow. The world is slowly shifting its energy mix to one that is greener, but this transition will require significant mining resources. Mining and the processing of minerals are also crucial in maintaining the military’s technological edge, securing manufacturing supply chains, and pursuing sustainable development practices. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has designated 50 critical minerals “essential to the economic and national security of the U.S.,” and the Department of Defense (DOD) has identified more than 250 “strategic and critical materials,” defined as those “those that support military and essential civilian industry.” Yet, unlike some strategic allies, such as Canada, the United States does not consider copper to be a critical mineral (see Box 1 for more on these definitions).
“The Rise of the Walking Dead: Zombie Firms Around the World” VoxEU/CEPR
The rise in the number of unproductive and unviable (‘zombie’) firms worldwide does not bode well for future productivity growth. This column documents global trends in zombification over the last two decades by creating a new dataset of nonfinancial zombie firms, listed and private, for a large set of countries. Despite the widespread increased zombification, the results point to a silver lining: negative macro-financial spillovers from zombie firms to non-zombies can be mitigated by strengthening banks and improving insolvency frameworks.
“Living with High Public Debt” Kansas City Fed/Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen
Public debts have soared to unprecedented peacetime heights. These high debts pose economic, financial, and political challenges. Multilateral financial institutions and others have consequently laid out scenarios for bringing them back down. Our thesis in this paper is that high public debts are not going to decline significantly for the foreseeable future. Countries are going to have to live with this new reality as a semi-permanent state of affairs. These are not normative statements of what is desirable; they are positive statements of what is likely. Financial liberalization, internal and external, is an economic fact of life. The genie is out of the bottle. All of which is to say that, for better or worse, high public debts are here to stay.
Russia/Ukraine
“Behind the Lines: Voting at Gunpoint in Russia’s Sham Elections” Center for European Policy Analysis
Russian occupation forces began conducting “elections” in some occupied regions on August 31 and will finish them on September 10. The aim of the Kremlin is to boost voter participation to add credibility to the elections for local “legislative bodies” and “self-government bodies.” The whole process, which is intended for domestic Russian and international audiences, seeks to show a vibrant political life and create the illusion that local residents have a say over their future. The reality is many are being forced to vote at gunpoint for pre-selected candidates.
Graphic of the Week
China’s New “Standard Map” Offends and Outrages Multiple Countries
Less than two weeks before India hosts the G20 Leaders’ Summit (which Chinese President Xi Jinping is not attending), the Chinese government released its new “standard map.” The map has China claiming ownership of vast territories that are actually controlled by India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. All these countries have strongly repudiated the map and its claims. In India’s case, China claims power over the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as well as the Aksai Chin plateau, a disputed area in the Western Himalayas that is claimed by India but controlled by China. All in all, the map serves to inflame regional tensions with China further but also shows Beijing’s willingness to challenge and anger its neighbors.
