Recommended Weekend Reads

Written By Francis Kelly

July 29 - 30, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful, and have a great weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Global

  • “How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World”  New York Times

    In this interactive article, the author argues The world’s demographics have already been transformed. Europe is shrinking. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation.  But what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning. The projections are reliable and stark: By 2050, people aged 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them. In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get.  As a result, experts predict things many wealthier countries take for granted — like pensions, retirement ages, and strict immigration policies — will need overhauls to be sustainable. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say.

  • “The buzz about electromagnet pulse weapons”  Orbis

    An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) may be naturally occurring or can be created from the detonation of a nuclear weapon high above the Earth’s surface. Either way, it would “fry” electronics completely – virtually all unprotected technology.  Various presidential administrations have grappled with how to best manage risks around EMP threats. As this paper explains, the nuclear EMP debate is unfortunately often framed between two extremes. Some administrations have focused on naturally occurring EMP threats, such as space weather events, whereas others have focused predominately on the nuclear EMP threat or even taken a hybrid approach here. Despite these contretemps, protecting against one form of an EMP threat thankfully also serves to protect against the other. Thus, this paper recommends that the United States Government and the private sector work together to harden the electric grid from both natural and man-made EMP incidents and establish an EMP Manhattan Project to develop national contingency plans for such scenarios.

 

Americas

  • “Chipping Away: Assessing and Addressing the Labor Market Gap Facing the U.S. Semiconductor Industry”  Semiconductor Industry Association and Oxford Economics

    Thanks in large part to the enactment of the landmark CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, a significant share of new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the U.S. But as America’s semiconductor ecosystem expands in the years ahead, so too will its demand for semiconductor workers with the necessary skills, training, and education.  This report projects the semiconductor industry’s workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade, representing 33% growth. Of these new jobs, the study estimates roughly 67,000—or 58% of projected new jobs (and 80% of projected new technical jobs)—risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates.

Asia  

  • “The Case for a Hard Break with China”    Oren Cass & Gabriela Rodriquez/Foreign Affairs

    The authors argue that never in human history have nations with such radically different economic and political systems as the United States and China attempted economic integration. When welcomed into the international community in the late 1990s, China’s GDP was roughly one-tenth of the United States GDP, and in 1999, it was still one of the world’s poorest countries per capita, ranked between Sri Lanka and Guyana. U.S. leaders across the political spectrum were confident that by encouraging China’s integration into the global economy.  It has not turned out that way. Instead, China has rapidly become—by some measures— the world’s largest economy and a powerful counterweight to U.S. influence. Its state-controlled economy and increasingly authoritarian leadership have subverted U.S. investment, supply chains, and institutions. The fundamental problem is that the United States’ free-market economy is incompatible with a Chinese state-controlled one. U.S. liberty and democracy are antithetical to the authoritarianism of the Chinese Communist Party. The United States must break from China or else become irrevocably corrupted by it.

  • “China’s Belt and Road Initiative a Decade On”  International Institute for Strategic Studies

    China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has served as an avenue for Chinese infrastructure development across the Asia-Pacific. However, not all countries there have received equal attention or embraced BRI membership. Following a 2018 peak, BRI investments have slowed, providing a window for Western alternatives. While concerns of ‘debt-trap’ diplomacy – due to indebtedness to China – may not have been borne out, Beijing seems to be moving towards promoting Chinese-centric norms of security, development, and digital governance. 

 

Europe/Eurasia 

  • “Russia’s Surging Trade with China Creates Infrastructure Headaches”  Moscow Times

    Russia’s logistics network is creaking under the weight of record trade with Asia. Russia’s trade with China jumped 30% last year to a record $191 billion, according to Chinese customs data. In the first six months of 2023, trade turnover in dollar terms was more than double pre-pandemic levels.

  

Middle East

Surveys & Charts of the Week 

1.     In 2021, 23 percent of US adults said they use Twitter.

2.     Democrats are more likely than Republicans to use Twitter (as of 2021)

3.     As of this Spring 2023, 60 percent of US adults who had used Twitter in the past year said they’d taken a break from the platform in that time.

4.     Also, in Spring 2023, 25 percent of Twitter uses said it is unlikely they will on the site a year from now.

5.     Following Twitter’s acquisition by Musk, most highly active users continued to use the platform but posted less frequently.

6.     The vast majority of tweets are actually just replies or retweets – 75 percent were either replies to other users (40 percent) or retweets (35 percent).  Only 15 percent were original tweets.

7.     Over the past two years, Democratic and Republican Twitter users’ view of the sites impact on American democracy has changed – For example, Republican users have become much less likely to say the site is bad for democracy (60 percent in 2021 vs. 21 percent now).

8.     Finally, the survey found partisan Twitter users have grown further apart in their views about misinformation, harassment and civility on the platform.

Francis Kelly
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