Recommended Weekend Reads
February 2 - 4, 2024
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Global Terrorism, Crime, and Economics
“Terrorism in Developing and Advanced Economies: A Historical Look” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Acts of terrorism occur throughout the globe, yet the toll on human lives and economic activity can weigh much heavier in different parts of the world. For example, 83% of attacks worldwide from 2002 to 2019 occurred in South Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.1 Many nations in these regions are relatively poor and lack state capacity to counter terror threats effectively.2 Terrorist attacks also create an additional challenge to economic development; studies have shown that terrorism can negatively affect the flow of foreign direct investment and bilateral trade. In this blog post, we first show the number of terrorist attacks from 1970 to 20203occurring in advanced economies and in emerging markets and developing economies as defined by the International Monetary Fund. For brevity, we use the term “developing economies” to refer to this latter group. Second, we list the top 25 nations and territories ranked by cumulative number of terrorist attacks in the post-9/11 period (2002-20). Finally, we list the top 25 nations and territories ranked by per capita terrorist attacks, again over the post-9/11 period.
“Inside the Crime Rings Trafficking Sand” Scientific American
Organized crime is mining sand from rivers and coasts to feed demand worldwide, ruining ecosystems and communities. Every year the world uses up to 50 billion metric tons of sand, according to a United Nations Environment Program report. The only natural resource more widely consumed is water. A 2022 study by researchers at the University of Amsterdam concluded that we are dredging river sand at rates that far outstrip nature's ability to replace it, so much so that the world could run out of construction-grade sand by 2050. The U.N. report confirms that sand mining at current rates is unsustainable. Can it be stopped?
The Americas
“Help the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States” Working Paper/National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China, and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory US agricultural subsidies. Consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears nevertheless to have been a political success for the governing Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Foreign retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support.
“When Journalism Dies” Sebastian Junger/National Review
Award-winning journalist, author (“The Perfect Storm”), and Academy Award nominee Sebastian Junger writes a fascinating essay on the state of international reporting and journalism in the US today.
Russia
“Russia’s Mortgage Bubble” The Bell
One of the most significant aberrations in the Russian economy at the moment is an apparent mortgage bubble. According to data published this week, the total mortgage portfolio of Russian banks rose a record 34.5% year-on-year in 2023 (compared to 20.4% rise the year before). There’s no mystery about the reason: state-subsidized lending. As the mortgage boom continues, the Central Bank is lobbying for an end to most preferential mortgages, arguing that low-income taxpayers are subsidizing homes for those rich enough to save a deposit and service a loan. But the war in Ukraine makes this a politically sensitive topic: those most likely to benefit from subsidized mortgages are often in the security forces or the military – groups the Kremlin must keep on its side.
European Union
“Europe’s Greens Are on the Ropes” Politico EU
Farmers’ ire and a right-wing surge are testing the EU’s climate goals. And the Greens that backed them are teetering. The Greens now face a stark choice as they strategize for their next big electoral test in the June EU elections: compromise to save the best of the Green Deal or stick to their ideals and risk their calls for a greener agenda being sidelined.
“EU-China Relations in 2024” MERICS China Podcast
What are the most pressing issues in EU-China relations in 2024? What does Europe need to focus on in managing relations with China? How might China seek to exploit the campaign season, in which Europe will be preoccupied with its own problems? In this podcast, Abigaël Vasselier, Director of Policy & European Affairs/Head of Program Foreign Relations at MERICS, discusses these and other questions with Claudia Wessling, Director of Communications and Publications.
“Italy’s G7 presidency can be a breakthrough for the ‘West’ and the ‘Rest” Atlantic Council
As it begins its Group of Seven (G7) presidency, Italy has an opportunity to leverage its unique historical and cultural perspective to act as a bridge-builder between the “West” and the “Rest” of the world. Indeed, it must do so because a more inclusive and collaborative approach between these two blocs has become imperative. The dichotomy between the West and the Rest has come to the fore over the past few years, marked by the return of war in Europe and great power competition—embodied most clearly by the rivalry between China and the United States.
Chart of the Week
Iran’s Oil Production has Surged to a 5-Year High
As tensions in the Middle East continue to grow with Iranian-sponsored provocations and attacks, it is worth noting Iran’s oil production – despite US and EU sanctions – has steadily surged. Will the US and EU move to tighten sanctions on Iranian oil? And if so, what impact would that have on global oil prices and the economic recoveries in the US and EU? Most likely, it would cause a surge in oil prices and ultimately reach around to slow economic growth. But one thing is clear: The question is now on the table in Brussels and Washington, D.C., as to whether tougher sanctions will help strip Tehran of a critical revenue stream.
