The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

August 13 - 20, 2023

It seems the week ahead is going to be the last quiet week of the Summer in the North Hemisphere.  The big political events of the week will be President Biden hosting a summit at Camp David with the Prime Ministers of South Korea and Japan to discuss China policy, how to handle an increasingly bellicose North Korea, and broader security in the Indo-Pacific. 

 Also, this coming week, it is expected that former President Donald Trump will be indicted for a fourth time, now for alleged election interference in the state of Georgia. 

We will be watching a number of elections this week.  Argentina holds presidential primaries today (Sunday), and later in the week, elections for president in Ecuador are expected to be held – although the nation is tense following the assassination last week of a leading candidate, Fernando Villaviencio.  Also, this week, Guatemala holds an election, too.

We would note that the week after this one, the BRICS Summit will be held in South Africa (August 22-24), and both leaders around the world and markets will be watching closely what comes out of it.  A large number of countries want to join – including Iran and other rogue states – and there is some resistance to the idea from several members, including Brazil.   Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend virtually as South Africa, a signatory to the International Criminal Court – would be required to arrest him if he showed up in person for war crime charges.

On the global economic radar screen, we will be watching China as retail sales and industrial output will be reported on Tuesday.  Both will give markets a greater sense of how much the country has fallen in deflation. 

We get Federal Reserve meeting minutes this week, hopefully giving markets insights into what the Fed is thinking about inflation and whether we are finally done with interest rate hikes. 

And finally, Japan releases Q2 GDP figures, as does the EU.  Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 13, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds presidential primary elections.  The general elections are on October 22.

  • The Iowa State Fair began this past Thursday (August 10) and goes through August 20.  This weekend and through the coming week, most Republican presidential candidates will troupe through as the Fair has become a “Must Do” for presidential candidates to campaign. If you go, don’t forget to have a corndog. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Saudi Arabia will host an international Islamic leaders conference in Mecca through Aug. 14.  The meeting will bring together more than 150 religious leaders and muftis from 85 countries and will seek to promote moderation, according to the Saudi State News Agency. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. Global Diversity Export Initiative Business Mission to Africa takes place in South Africa, Ghana, and Nigeria through August 15th.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

Monday, August 14, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. Congress remains out of session and will return to work in September (the House returns September 11, and the Senate returns September 5).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)

  • Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Colombia Balance of Trade (June), Industrial Production (June), Retail Sales (June)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Pakistan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India Inflation (July), WPI Inflation (July), WPI Food Index (July), WPI Fuel (July), WPI Manufacturing (July)

  • New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July), Services NZ PSI (July), visitor Arrivals (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Unemployment (July)

  • Turkey Auto Production (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The 19th session of the United Nation’s African Ministerial Conference on the Environment is held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  

  • Bloomberg hosts a week-long conference in Johannesburg on South Africa’s economic outlook in advance of the BRICS Summit being held the following week.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Rwanda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Santiago Peña Palcios will be inaugurated as the new President of Paraguay.  Taiwanese Vice President William Lai will be in attendance. 

  • Today is the anniversary of the 2021 Taliban takeover of Kabul as U.S. military forces withdrew.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Energy Ministers’ Meeting takes place in Seattle, Washington.

  • South Korea celebrates Liberation Day – otherwise known as “Gwangbokjeol” – a  national holiday.  It marks the day the Republic of Korea was officially established and celebrates the liberation from Japanese occupation.  Interestingly, North Korea also celebrates this day, too.

  • Today is Independence Day in India, celebrating the day when Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru lifted the Indian flag above the Lahori Gate in Delhi.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi will give a national speech marking the occasion, and a bipartisan delegation of U.S. members of Congress will be in attendance.

  • The Cambodian Constitutional Court rules on the case challenging parliament's refusal to allow a second vote for Pita Limjaroenrat to become prime minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement,  Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Unemployment (July)

  • India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

  • Japan GDP (Q2), Capacity Utilization (June), Industrial Production (June)

  • Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes, Wage Price Index (Q2)

  • Thailand GDP (Q2)

  • Philippines Cash Remittances (June)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Lithuania will close two of its six current border crossing checkpoints with Belarus. 

  • Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at the opening of the Army 2023 military forum in Moscow.

  • Liechtenstein celebrates National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August), ZEW Current Conditions (August)

  • UK Unemployment (June), Labor Productivity (Q2)

  • Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

  • Serbia Building Permits (June)

  • Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

  • Hungary Construction Output (June), Industrial Production (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (July), Wholesale Prices (July)

  • Turkey Budget Balance (July)

  • Qatar Inflation (July)

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Unemployment (Q2)

  • Nigeria Food Inflation (July), Inflation (July)

  • Botswana Inflation (July)

  • Uganda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The Dominican Republic celebrates Restoration Day, a public holiday.  It celebrates when the country gained independence from Haiti in 1844.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve FMOC Meeting Minutes, MBA Mortgage Market Index (August 11), Building Permits (July), Housing Starts (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July)

  • Canada Wholesale Sales (June), Housing Starts (July)

  • Peru Unemployment (July)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo will deliver a speech to parliament to commemorate the  78th anniversary of the country’s independence.  He is expected to use the speech to announce next year’s budget, including significant infrastructure investment and education spending proposals.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • China House Price Index (July)

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)

  • New Zealand Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (June)

  • Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone GDP (Q2), Industrial Production (June), Employment (Q2), Industrial Production (June)

  • UK Inflation (July), PPI (July), Retail Price Index (July)

  • Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)

  • Poland Industrial Production (June),  Inflation (July)

  • Hungary GDP (Q2)

  • Bulgaria GDP (Q2), Inflation (July)

  • Serbia Current Account (June)

  • Russia PPI (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Unemployment (Q2)

  • Israel GDP (Q2)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Retail Sales (June), SACCI Business Confidence (June)

  • Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Thursday, August 17, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (August 12), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (August), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (August), Philadelphia Fed Employment (August), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (August), CB Leading Index (July)

  • El Salvador Inflation (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Australia’s Labor Party will hold its national conference through  August 20th.  Labor holds the conference every three years, and is the first they have held since taking power in 2022.  Observers are watching to see if the AUKUS agreement with the US and UK is brought up and debated, as some members of the party are opposed to Australia buying nuclear submarines from the UK and the US.

  • Indonesia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday marking when they declared independence from the Netherlands in 1945.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (July), Machinery Orders (June), Tertiary Industry Index (June)

  • Singapore Exports (July), Balance of Trade (July)

  • Australia Unemployment (July)

  • New Zealand PPI (Q2)

  • Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Hong Kong Unemployment (July)

  • Sri Lanka PPI (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Denmark's PM Mette Frederiksen in Berlin.

  • The new Spanish parliament will convene for the first time following the general elections. No new leader has been chosen.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Poland GDP (Q2)

  • Spain Balance of Trade (June)

  • Bulgaria Current Account (June)

  • Hungary CPI (July), Inflation (July)

  • Belarus GDP (July), Industrial Production (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey FX Reserves (August 11)

  • Israel Inflation Expectations (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Southern African heads of state attend a Southern African Development Community Summit (SADC) in Luanda, Angola.  The theme of the meeting is “Human and financial capital: the key drivers for sustainable industrialization of the SADC Region.”

  • Gabon celebrates Independence Day, marking when the country became independent from France in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Building Permits (June)

 

Friday, August 18, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Biden will host the first trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea at Camp David.  The Prime Ministers of both countries will attend.  Issues they are expected to discuss are the situation in the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear program and ramped-up threats, and dealing with China and the ongoing tensions between Beijing and Taiwan. 

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Canada PPI (July), Raw Materials (July)

  • Mexico Retail Sales (June)

  • Chile GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2),

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China FDI (July)

  • Japan Inflation (July)

  • India FX Reserves (August 11)

  • Taiwan GDP (Q2)

  • Indonesia Current Account (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip Lane speaks on the ECB Podcast “Summer School” on the role of banks in fighting inflation.

  • Eurozone Inflation (July), Balance of Trade (June), Construction Output (June), CPI (July)

  • UK Retail Sales (July)

  • Switzerland Industrial Production (Q2)

  • Poland Employment Growth (July), Industrial Production (July), PPI (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

Saturday, August 19, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Sien Loong is expected to give a speech outlining his economic and social agenda.  Lee has been grappling with how to handle the rising cost of living and housing prices.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Sunday, August 20, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Ecuador is scheduled to hold Presidential and Legislative elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Sweden hosts World Water Week through August 24.  They will discuss how to pursue innovative solutions for managing water in an increasingly unstable and resource-scarce world.

  • Today is National Day in Hungary, a national holiday.  It is also known as State Foundation Day as well as St. Stephen’s Day, the nation’s first canonized saint.  It goes back to 1000 A.D. when Pope Sylvester II ordains St. Stephen as King of Hungary.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly
Previous

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead
Next

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead