The Global Week Ahead

April 9 - 16, 2023

We hope everyone has had a joyful Easter and Passover.  This week, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) hold spring meetings in Washington, DC.  The big focus will be on global inflation and how to bring it under control as well as discussions on how to best deal with growing debt problems in a number of emerging markets.

Geopolitically, we will be watching as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – better known as Lula – travels to China, where he is expected to sign a number of trade agreements.  He will also be discussing with Chinese President Xi Jinping how to possibly bring a peace deal to Ukraine and Russia. 

Also this week, President Joe Biden will travel to Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.  And G-7 Foreign Ministers will meet in Japan to discuss Ukraine and China.

On the global economic agenda, markets will be focused on the US CPI and the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meeting minutes for signs of where the Fed will go next in terms of rate increases.  Also, this week the U.K. will be releasing its GDP report.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 9, 2023:

Global

·       Easter is observed by much of the Christian world globally.

·       Palm Sunday is observed today in the Orthodox church.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds local elections in 47 prefectures and several major cities.  The elections are considered a major indicator for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to call for early parliamentary elections following a slide in his poll numbers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgian opposition groups will stage protests in the capital Tbilisi against corruption in the judicial system.

·       Kosovo Constitution Day is observed.

·       The Church of England begins a 28-day period of prayer leading to the coronation of King Charles next month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, April 10, 2023:

Global

·       The World Bank and International Monetary Fund hold their spring meetings through April 16th in Washington, D.C.

·       The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on threats to international peace and security.  Specifically, they will discuss risks stemming from violations of the agreements regulating the export of weapons and military equipment.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will host Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manolo and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Carlito Galvez for a “2+2 Meeting” in Washington, DC.  This is the first such meeting in seven years.

·       The U.S. Congress is out of session this week.

·       Federal Trade Commission Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya (D) and Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter will be the keynote speakers at the University of Utah Quinney College of Law event titled "Do Consumers Still Reign Supreme in the Antitrust Hierarchy? How Antitrust Can Promote the Interests of Workers and Other Stakeholders in the Economy."

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion organized by the Economics Review at New York University.

· U.S. Wholesale Inventories (February), Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout,  Car Production (March)

·       Mexico Auto Production (March), Auto Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China and Japan will hold their 15th round of dialogues on maritime affairs, which is expected to focus on defense hotlines and activities around disputed territories.

·       Bangladesh is bracing for the opposition parties and labor unions to begin nationwide protests over legislation being considered by parliament that would prohibit strikes in sectors and industries deemed “essential.” The Essential Services Bill began to be considered last week by parliament, but nationwide anger has resulted in protests.

·       China hosts the International Consumer Product Expo in Haikou, Hainan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to attend his first official press conference.

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Japan Current Account (February), Consumer Confidence (March), Eco Watchers Survey (March)

·       Indonesia F.X. Reserves (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Easter Holiday is observed in most of Europe.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·      Employees of Morocco's National Ports Agency will hold a general strike.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Tuesday, April 11, 2023:

Global

·       G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Washington, DC, as part of the World Bank/IMF Meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. President Joe Biden will visit the U.K. and Ireland through Friday.  He will be there mainly to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the US-brokered Good Friday Accord.  President Biden is expected to discuss with U.K. leaders the prospects for reviving the US-UK Free Trade Agreement.

·       Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) starts his week-long visit to China that was postponed at the end of last month. Lula plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and sign about 20 agreements.  It is also expected more than 200 Brazilian executives will join in the trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Economic Club of Chicago.

·       Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a town hall at Montana State University.

·       Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook at a Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation event. 

·       US NFIB Business Optimism Index (March), Redbook (April 8th), WASDE Report

·       Brazil Inflation (March)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine and U.S. armed forces will kick off their annual joint military exercises that will run through April 28th.  This is the 38th annual “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) exercise held in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (March), PPI (March)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April), NAB Business Confidence (March)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Switzerland, the country’s two chambers of parliament will hold an extraordinary session to debate the deal negotiated by the government for UBS to buy Credit Suisse.

·       French President Emanual Macron will visit the Netherlands for meetings.

· U.K.’s Civil Servants are expected to go out on strike over pay.  Also, junior doctors are expected to go on strike over pay for 96 hours.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Retail Sales (February)

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March), BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Russia Current Account (Q1)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa FX Reserves (March), Manufacturing Production (February) 

Wednesday, April 12, 2023:

Global

·       The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)  is expected to release the strictest limits on tailpipe emissions for cars, and light-duty trucks, along with standards for heavy-duty trucks. The performance-based standards will address carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and other pollutants from vehicles with model years 2027 through 2032.

·       Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy will host its 2023 Energy Summit. It will feature speakers like Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Larry Fink, among other industry leaders.  

· Mexico's Supreme Court will decide whether to maintain a suspension against a portion of the government's electoral reforms.

·       European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will speak at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, on trade policy, industrial policy, and transatlantic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its March 21-22 meeting.

·       Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver opening remarks at the Investing in Rural America 2023 conference.

·       US MBA Mortgage Index (April 7), Inflation (March), CPI (March), Monthly Budget Statement

·       Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and press conference.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (March), Outstanding Loan Growth (March), Total Social Financing (March), M2 Money Supply (March)

·       India Industrial Production (February), Inflation (March)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (February), Bank Lending (March), PPI (March)

·       Australia Building Permits (February), Private House Approvals (February)

·       South Korea Unemployment (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at an Institute of International Finance event on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an event organized by Asociacion para el Progreso de Dirección in Madrid, Spain.

·       Russia Inflation (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Retail Sales (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Nigeria, two major trade unions will decide whether to strike today over cash shortages.  They previously planned to go on strike on March 29th but deferred the timing as they spoke with the government about finding alternative solutions. The cash shortages are the result of Nigeria’s central bank swapping out old currency for redesigned notes, resulting in businesses closing and leaving millions unable to withdraw money from banks and ATMs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Thursday, April 13, 2023:

Global

·       The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US PPI (March), Initial Jobless Claims (April 8th)

·       Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former leader of the Opposition Congress Rahul Gandhi is in court for a second hearing to appeal against the defamation charge that has barred him from parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March),

·       Australia Unemployment (March), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       South Korea Export Prices & Import Prices (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· E.U. foreign policy head Josep Borrell is expected to visit China through Saturday.  This comes on the heels of last week’s visit by French President Emmanuel Macron and E.U. President Ursula von der Leyden, who was seeking China’s help in bringing an end to the Ukrainian War as well as discussing growing trade tensions between the E.U. and China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Industrial Production (February)

·       Germany Inflation (March), CPI (March), Current Account (February)

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (March), GDP (February), Manufacturing Production (February) Goods Trade Balance (February), Industrial Production (February), Balance of Trade (February), Construction Output (February), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Morocco, pharmacist unions and healthcare industry groups are expected to go on strike for 24 hours, demanding the government better protect the pharmacy sector.  Currently, a large number of pharmacies in the country are facing bankruptcy resulting from the government not honoring tax exemptions for the year 2022. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey F.X. Reserves (April 7th)

·       Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (March), Inflation (March), Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Mining Production (February), Gold Production (February)

Friday, April 14, 2023:

Global

·       OPEC Monthly Report

·       International Energy Agency Oil Mark Report

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will hold a press briefing at IMF/World Bank spring meeting.

·       Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan will speak at the 23rd Annual Loyola Antitrust Colloquium at the Loyola University Chicago School of Law. The event, hosted by the Institute for Consumer Antitrust Studies, will also feature conversations with Sarah Allen of the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will discuss his outlook on the economy at the Graybar National Training Conference in San Antonio, Texas.

· U.S. Retail Sales (March), Import Sales (March), Export Sales (March), Industrial Production (March), Manufacturing Production (March), Capacity Utilization (March), Michigan Consumer Expectations (April), Michigan Current Conditions (April), Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February), Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (April)

·       Argentina Inflation (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       India WPI Fuel (March), WPI Manufacturing (March), WPI Inflation (March), F.X. Reserves (April 7th), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)

·       Singapore GDP (Q1), Monetary Policy Statement, Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       ’s Constitutional Court is expected to render a verdict on the legality of the government’s pension bill, which has caused widespread violent protests in the country. They will also rule as to whether a nationwide referendum can be called to vote on the pension reform effort. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)

·       France Inflation (March)

·       Spain CPI (March), Inflation (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Auto Production (March)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, April 15, 2023:

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Group of Seven chair Japan will host environment ministers and officials from the grouping in Sapporo, Hokkaido, the nation's leading region in developing renewables and carbon capture. During the two-day event, officials will discuss how to tackle the climate crisis while ensuring economic growth and energy security and conclude on Sunday with a joint statement.

·       The China Import and Export Fair will commence on Saturday in the southern city of Guangzhou. Better known as the Canton Fair, some 35,000 companies, including 508 from overseas, are expected to pitch sales on a wide range of goods from household appliances to machinery. The event will last until May 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (March), FDI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

The Jewish Orthodox Holy Fire ceremony is held at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, April 16, 2023:

Global

·       G-7 foreign ministers will meet in Japan to discuss issues, including Ukraine and China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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