Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 12/27/24 Francis Kelly 12/27/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The New 119th Congress Gets Sworn In, Big Banks and Trade Associations Sue The Fed Over Stress Tests As Fed Says It Will Overhaul Stress Test Regime

December 30, 2024 - January 3, 2025

We hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas! This will be a quick report. We are all looking forward to a great 2025 and savoring the coming week, which should be very quiet, especially on the regulatory front.

But at the end of the week, a new era begins with the new 119th Congress coming together to be sworn into office. We expect the current Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson (R-LA), to be re-elected as Speaker of the House on Friday, but it will be closed. This is one of the closest majorities in history, with 219 House Republicans and 215 Democrats, with one vacancy.

The Senate will be particularly interesting to watch in 2025: Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has announced the Senate will work for ten straight weeks before taking a break (except for taking off February 17th for President’s Day). And they will work five days a week instead of the usual three.

Looking at last week, a group of large banks joined forces with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, and several other trade groups sued the Federal Reserve, claiming the annual bank stress tests lacked transparency and failed to take “public input as required by law.”

The suit was filed despite the Federal Reserve saying this past Monday they intended to make changes to the stress tests and would be seeking public comment and input. However, the Fed did not detail what those changes would be. We believe this situation will add significant pressure from Congress and likely the incoming Trump Administration on Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to step aside. We will see.

Again, we hope you enjoy the quiet week ahead and have a wonderful New Year! As we said above, nothing is going on this coming week in the regulatory world – you don’t need to read anything beyond this sentence. But if you have any questions, please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·Friday, 12:00 p.m., January 3, 2025 – The 119th United States Congress will be sworn into office. The Senate will then begin ten weeks of work (with a break on February 17th for President’s Day), being in session five days a week, which breaks from previous historic work schedules.

House of Representatives

Friday, 12:00 p.m., January 3, 2025 – The 119th United States Congress will be sworn into office. The House of Representatives. The House will also vote on who will serve as Speaker of the House, the 130th Speaker of the House of Representatives since the office was created in 1789. Current Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) is expected to be re-elected by a slim margin.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 12/22/24 Francis Kelly 12/22/24

The Global Week Ahead

Peace on Earth and Goodwill to All Men – The World Goes (Mostly) Quiet for Christmas Week

December 22 - 29, 2024

It is shaping up to be a very quiet week around the world. Hopefully, most of the world—or at least a good portion of the world—will enjoy a period of peace, with Christmas being celebrated on Wednesday and Hanukkah also beginning on Wednesday.

We are watching three political events this week: The first in Washington, D.C., the second in South Korea, and the third in Georgia. In Washington on Monday, President Biden is expected to announce his decision to either approve or block Nippon Steel's acquisition bid for U.S. Steel. During the presidential campaign when he was still a candidate, Biden vowed to block the deal to win the support of the United Steelworkers Union, whose leadership strongly opposes the deal (while most of its rank-and-file members support the deal). Reports indicate the Defense Department, Treasury Department, and State Department support the deal – but the very few indications that have come from the White House suggest Biden will abide by his vow to the union and block the deal, which, strangely, will probably end up hurting the overall steel industry in the U.S. and likely severely hurt relations with Japan (not to mention put a chilling effect on foreign investment in the US).

The second event we are watching this week is in Seoul, South Korea. The South Korean Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony. Whether Yoon shows up is another question, as he has vowed to continue fighting against his recent impeachment and refused to accept any documents or summons from the Court. But it keeps the country's ongoing democratic crisis alive.

The third event is in Georgia where recently appointed far-right presidential candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili is scheduled to be sworn into office on December 29. Kavelashvili was appointed by the country's electoral college, which members of his ruling party dominate. The country's current president, Salome Zurabishvili – pro-EU and opposed to Russia's war on Ukraine – has called Kavelashvili's appointment as president "illegitimate" and said she will not leave office. Protests are expected across the nation.

This week's global economic radar screen will be almost as quiet as the international political week. In Asia, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia release minutes from their recent interest rate meetings. In the U.S., the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index and new residence sales, and we also get the durable goods order report. In Europe, there really are no major reports out this week.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week. We want to wish you a blessed Christmas and a joyful Hannukah.

Sunday, December 22, 2024:

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 26th Harbin Ice and Snow World Festival begins in Harbin, China. The event spans more than 1 million square meters and features 300,000 cubic meters of ice and snow, drawing tens of thousands of tourists.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. It is one of the few meetings Putin has had with any EU leader in the last three years. The two leaders discussed energy security issues, as Ukraine has pledged to stop the transit of Russian gas through its territory next month.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to open a number of transport/infrastructure facilities across Russia facilities via video link. Putin launched auto traffic on highway 289 linking Krasnodar, Slavyansk-on-Kuban and Temryuk and the A290 Novorossiysk-Kerch motorway. Putin also took part in the ceremony of opening international airports in Magadan, Cheboksary, and Stavropol.

· In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held. It is the world’s biggest lottery, which has no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

Monday, December 23, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Economic Activity (October)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

· Canada GDP (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (November)/ PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs

· Colombia Business Confidence (November)

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s cabinet is expected to approve a new tax reform plan. The plan is aimed at funding a scheduled defense budget hike via corporate and tobacco levies starting in 2026.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Albania, opposition parties are expected to block roads across the country, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Import Prices (November)

· Great Britain Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Business Investment Q3

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Current Account Q3

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Poland Unemployment Rate (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (October)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambique’s Constitutional Court will deliver a final verdict on the outcome of the country’s October 9 general elections. The losing opposition party of Venancio Mondlane says the election was rigged.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden is expected to decide on a recommendation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) on Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel. During the campaign season, Biden told the United Steelworkers Union – who adamantly oppose the deal – “he had their back” and would block the deal. However, there are no apparent national security concerns to the deal, putting Biden in a tough position to come up with a valid reason to block the deal. Nevertheless, it is widely believed Biden will block the deal.

· NASA’s Parker Space Probe will come closer to the sun’s surface than any other flight ever before – 3.8 million miles away from the surface of the sun.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile PPI (November)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Redbook (December/21)/ New Home Sales (November)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing/ Manufacturing Shipments/ Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/20)/ Building Permits Final (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· Malaysia PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Moldova holds the inauguration of President-elect Maia Sandu. Sandu won by a narrow margin despite Russian meddling in the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Current Account Q3

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Libya Independence Day, marking the day in 1952 when the country gained its independence from the UK and France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Global

· Today is Christmas Day. Markets in Europe, North and South America, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Indonesia, India, and Australia will be closed. Markets will be open in Japan, mainland China, Taiwan and Thailand.

· Today is the first day of Hannukah.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. The two diplomats are expected to explore ways to stabilize relations amid heightened tensions between the two countries.

· South Korea’s Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials is expected to summon recently impeached President Yoon for testimony.

· Today is Quaid-E-Azam Day in Pakistan, celebrating the birthday of Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s. He is widely seen as the founder of the country. It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kauo Ueda will speak at a meeting of Councilors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

· Japan Coincident Index Final (October)/ Leading Economic Index Final (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/21)

· India M3 Money Supply (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council (EAEU) meets in St. Petersburg, Russia. The meeting will be chaired by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The Council brings together the prime ministers of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia to discuss how to further economic integration and will focus on energy and industrial cooperation and the development of e-commerce.

· King Charles delivers the annual Christmas message.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (December/21)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

· Argentina Retail Sales (October)

· Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Former Taiwanese President Ma is expected to visit with students in Harbin and Sichuan, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

· Singapore Industrial Production (November)

· Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Slovenia Independence Day, celebrating the day in 1990 when an independence referendum was held separating the country from Yugoslavia.

· Today is Boxing Day. The London Stock Exchange is closed as will markets in Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Spain PPI (November)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (November)/ Jobseekers Total (November)

· Turkey Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (December)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 27, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December)/ Bank Lending (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (December)/ Net Payrolls (November)

· USA Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/20)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/27)

· Paraguay Current Account Q3

· Costa Rica Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The South Korean Constitutional Court will hold the first public hearing on President Yoon’s impeachment. Yoon was impeached by the South Korean parliament on December 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (December)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (November)/ Current Account Final Q3

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)

· Thailand Industrial Production (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Private Consumption & Investment (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Singapore Import/ Export Prices (November)/ PPI (November)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Chaos Computer Club Congress begins in Hamburg, Germany. It is the largest gathering of hackers in Europe.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Spain Retail Sales (November)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (November)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (December)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Global

· Today is the Feast of the Holy Innocents.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Mongolia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its freedom in 1911 from the Qing China dynasty.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Croatia holds the first round of its presidential elections.

· Georgia will hold its presidential inauguration. Tensions remain high in the country, and mass protests are likely to be held in opposition to the swearing-in of Mikheil Kavelashvili.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (November)/ Private Bank Lending (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chad holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 12/20/24 Francis Kelly 12/20/24

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Wall Street Journal Calls for Fed Vice Chair Barr to be Removed, The FDIC Inspector General’s Scathing Report About Harassment Under Chair Gruenberg’s Watch, And Washington Goes Totally Quiet

December 23 - 27, 2024

There is nothing going on next week in Washington – Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

As we write this, Congress is finally passing a stop-gap spending package to keep the government running for another three months. And with that, the 118th Congress comes to an end.

Enjoy the peace – it’s going to get very busy in January as the Trump Presidency begins and a whole new team of regulators with a vastly different agenda than the current team.

Quickly looking at what happened this past week, there were a couple of important events. First, we would note the Wall Street Journal’s editorial calling for Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to be removed by President Trump “for cause” – the only way a Fed Chair or Fed Governor can be fired by a President. The editorial listed a litany of Barr’s “sorry record”, and suggested Trump could name Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as Barr’s replacement. The piece is hard-hitting, and we believe it suggests Barr – who was appointed by President Biden and has said publicly he intends to stay in the job – is going to face a particularly grueling future oversight by the Republican-led Senate Banking Committee and Republican-led House Financial Services Committee.

But Barr was not the only regulator to take a beating last week. Once again, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) leadership came under withering criticism with the release of a new report from the FDIC’s Inspector General showing that more than a third of employees surveyed reported experiencing or witnessing workplace harassment. "These conditions occurred because FDIC leadership does not consistently implement the agency's policies and stated core values, specifically, fairness, accountability, and integrity," the watchdog agency said in the report. FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg had no comment on the report and continues to refuse to resign despite presiding over such a toxic workplace. Instead, he intends to leave on January 19, the day President Trump is inaugurated (and thereby avoid being fired by Trump).

And finally, Delaware’s banking regulator signed off on the $35 billion Capitol One acquisition of Discover. While the deal has to be approved by federal regulators, it was the first major positive sign the deal may ultimately be approved.

We hope you have a joyful Christmas and a Happy Hanukkah!

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate has completed its work in the 118th Congress. The new Congress – the 119th Congress – will be sworn into office on January 3, 2025.

House of Representatives

· The House has completed its work in the 118th Congress. The new Congress – the 119th Congress – will be sworn into office on January 3, 2025.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 12/16/24 Francis Kelly 12/16/24

Christmas Book Recommendations

We're a bit late but here are a few books we have read recently we recommend for your or a friend's Christmas stocking.

On Xi Jinping: How Xi’s Marxist Nationalism Is Shaping China and the World by Kevin Rudd (Oxford University Press, 2024 - 604 pages).

Yes, it is more than 600 pages long and scholarly. But it is also very much worth the time and effort to read it. Rudd has written not only a monumental biography of China's President Xi Jinping but also a rich historical analysis of Xi's efforts to build a modern China capable of reshaping the world. You may remember Rudd as the former Prime Minister of Australia (and current Australian Ambassador to the U.S.). He is also a top-tier China scholar (he has a PhD from Oxford in China studies), and he has written a great book.

Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order by Saleha Mohsin (Portfolio Press, 2024 - 304 pages)

Mohsin drills into how the U.S. dollar ushered in historic prosperity and cheap foreign goods to the U.S. However, it also severely damaged American manufacturing, encouraging manufacturing to move overseas for cheaper labor. But the dollar also, in the last 50 years, became the all-powerful weapon of the U.S. Treasury Department. Mohsin drills into the intended and unintended consequences of the strong dollar, including the rise of populist sentiment and trade war with China—culminating in an unprecedented attack on the dollar's pristine status during the Trump presidency—and connects the dollar's weaponization from 9/11 to the deployment of crippling financial sanctions against Russia.

Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War by Raj M. Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff (Scribner, 2024 - 336 pages)

Technology is radically changing the way we fight wars—we see it daily in the Ukraine War as drones rule the skies and the trenches. Cutting-edge weapons technology now comes from Silicon Valley, not the Midwestern factory lines that manufacture tanks, armored personnel carriers, and rifles. This is a riveting account of how the Pentagon is slowly and painfully transitioning to meet the challenges.

Raiders, Rulers, and Traders: The Horse and the Rise of Empires by David Chaffetz (W.W. Norton & Company, 2024 - 448 pages)

I've always been fascinated by horses and have had horses for 30 years. But I'm also deeply interested in the horse's role in world history - which has been extraordinary and largely ignored. Every major empire of history - India, Russia, Iran, China, Austro-Hungarian, etc. - only became empires because of the power of the horse—a great read.

Freedom: Memoirs 1954 - 2021 by Angela Merkel (St. Martin’s Press, 2024 - 720 pages)

The reviews of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's memoirs are mixed, with many critics arguing she lacks genuine self-reflection when looking at her policy victories and failures - especially with regard to her dealings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Having met Merkel several times in my career, I owed her the benefit of the doubt and tried the book. I was more than pleasantly surprised: Crisply written (and translated), it reveals an enormous amount of fascinating historical details and context to her years as Chancellor as well as her early life behind the Iron Wall. No matter what you think of her, Merkel was a towering figure of her time who did a nearly miraculous work reunifying Germany after almost 30 years.

America’s Cold Warrior: Paul Nitze and National Security from Roosevelt to Reagan by James Graham Wilson (Cornell University Press, 2024 - 336 pages)

Paul Nitze is now, sadly, a largely forgotten hero of the Cold War who served in every Administration going back to Franklin Roosevelt - 8 presidencies. Along the way, he was also a brilliant investor and businessman. A brilliant man with a rapacious intellectual appetite - he spent two hours a day starting at 5 a.m. reading books just to learn - he had an outsized impact on winning the Cold War, particularly in pushing the U.S. and Soviet Union toward a more rational nuclear policy.

The Seventh Floor by David McCloskey (W.W. Norton & Company, 2024 - 393 pages).

This is David McCloskey’s third novel, and it’s brilliant. Bringing back his rough and ready CIA operative Artemis Procter (who we met in his last novel, “Damascus Station”), now fighting for her career survival in the halls of the CIA, it is a rip-roaring, brain-teasing tale of counter-espionage. Lots of fun. I’m a big McCloskey fan.

One the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver (Penguin Press, 2024 - 576 pages)

I never saw the movie "Bull Durham," but I recall a friend describing it this way: If you love baseball, there was too much sex. And if you are watching it for the sex, there is too much baseball. There is something to this in Nate Silver's new book. If you are reading it for tips on professional poker playing, then there is too much about risk analysis, and if you are reading it to learn more about risk analysis, there is too much poker. But it is still a great read, offering a brilliant explanation of how, in the age of "Big Data," professional risk takers (hedge fund managers, crypto true believers, high-end art collectors) navigate uncertainty and make decisions..

This Fierce People: The Untold Story of America’s Revolutionary War in the South by Alan Pell Crawshaw (Knopf, 2024 - 400 pages)

The historical narrative of the American Revolutionary War focuses heavily on the battles and campaigns that took place in the north - the Battles of Bunker Hill, Saratoga, Cowpens, Trenton, and the Crossing of the Delaware River. But this riveting book looks at how the final three years of the war were mostly fought in the South. And those engagements were particularly fierce, bloody, and brutal, taking place in long-forgotten battlefields in North and South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. It was because of the geographic shift of the war to the South that the British were bottled up and ultimately surrendered at Yorktown, Virginia, just across the North Carolina border.

To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power by Sergey Radchenko (Cambridge University Press, 2024 - 768 pages)

This is an extraordinary historic review of the Soviet Union’s blinding ambition to spread the Marxist revolution around the world while gaining legitimacy and power. But, as Radchenko details brilliantly, Soviet leaders blinded by their hubris and historical ignorance, ultimately driving the USSR into crisis and collapse. Considering what is happening in Putin’s Russia and even Xi’s China and a sense of history repeating itself, this is timely and important read.

Francis Kelly 12/15/24 Francis Kelly 12/15/24

The Global Week Ahead

European Leaders Meet on Ukraine, Russia Lost Syria And May Also Lose in Africa, Germany Holds A No-Confidence Vote to Trigger Federal Elections, and the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan Each Meet on Interest Rates

December 15 - 22, 2024

While most of us look forward to the peace and joy (and quiet) of the holidays and New Year, the coming week will be busy on several fronts. European leaders will gather in Brussels this week to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Russia's war on Ukraine and the unfolding events in Syria. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will join the EU leaders. Russia has ramped up its drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets and has begun deploying North Korean troops against Ukrainian forces, and Ukraine needs more military aid.

Syria continues to be something of a question mark for Western leaders as Syrian rebels move to establish a new government following their shock defeat of Bashir al-Assad's regime. How the rebel coalition will rule and the true intentions of the more radical Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leadership – which at one point was allied with Al Queda – remain somewhat unclear.

But as the West works to develop relations with the rebels, another unexpected outcomofAssad'ssss overthrow has emerged: It appears Russian military forces, responding to demands from the Syrian rebels, are packing up and leaving some of their bases in Syria - but not all of them followingAssad'ssss defeat and fleeing to Moscow. As if Assad's defeat was not enough of a blow to Russian foreign policy, it turns out it is now seriously complicating Russia's aggressive and malignant African policy: Russia's airbases in Syria serve as major military supply transshipment centers foRussia's’s military support of Mali, Burkina, Faso, and Niger – all critical mineral-rich countries which experienced coups in the last year (all assisted by Russia), resulting in all three countries cutting ties with the West and allying themselves with MoscoRussia'ssss operational strategy with these countries is now at risk of collapsing.

As European leaders meet, Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual press conference. This elaborately stage-managed event goes on for hours as Putin takes questions from Russians calling into the event. While all the questions are obviously scripted, the event usually reveals something new about Russia's thinking and intentions toward the rest of the world, and it is always worth paying attention to.

Germany becomes the latest European country to move to snap elections this week, with a no-confidence vote scheduled for Monday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw the collapse of his multi-party coalition last month, pushing him into running a minority government and pressuring him into calling the no-confidence vote.

According to the most recent polls, the Christian Democratic Party/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) leads with 32 percent, with the far-right AfD in second place with 18 percenScholz'ssss Social Democrats (SPD) are in third place with 15 percent.

The ultimate winner will likely be the CDU/CSU allying with the Green Party (12.6 percent) and pro-business, laissez-faire Free Democrat Party (FDP). Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is all about three big central bank meetings: the Federal Reserve Board, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The Fed meeting is being closely watched to gauge how much they intend to cut in 2025 and their assessment of inflation (which reports this past week suggest may be creeping back up). Markets are expecting a 25-basis point cut this week.

The Bank of Japan meeting is proving more uncertain for markets. Will the BoJ hold or raise rates another 25 basis points? Will the Bank of England keep rates at 4.75% or cut them? Market consensus suggests they will hold. We also note that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give remarks on Monday that might offer further insights into the state of the European and global economies.

Regarding major economic data reports, markets are watching US retail sales and industrial production reports on Tuesday and PCE data on Friday. In Europe, the focus will be on UK labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday (right before the BoE meeting). Germany, battered of late by a regular stream of discouraging economic assessments, releases the ZEW Surveys on Tuesday along with the Ifo report and then consumer confidence on Thursday and PPI on Friday.

Turning to Asia, China releases new home prices on Monday and its loan prime rate on Friday, while in Japan, trade balance data comes out on Wednesday, and the November CPI is out on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of everything else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Global

· The UN Internet Governance Forum begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and goes through December 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 3rd China Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation meets in Kunming, China. clean energy, climate change response, and disaster reduction are on the agenda, among other topics,

Economic Reports/Events –

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The U.K. officially joins the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as the 12th member of the Asia-Pacific trade bloc. The general agreement removes trade tariffs between member countries and sets rules on matters such as cross-border investment, e-commerce, intellectual property, and labor.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordanian King Abdullah meets with the Saudi Arabian Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, to discuss the situation in Syria and Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (November)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi is due to meet with his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in Angola's capital of Luanda to discuss the ongoing conflict in eastern Congo.

· Leaders from the West African bloc Ecowas will meet for an annual summit in Abuja, Nigeria. They are expected to discuss the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from the bloc after a 12-month notice period.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 16, 2024

Global

· The UN 2024 meeting of the States Parties to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Economic Commission for Africa will hold an expert group meeting to consult on Africa’s critical minerals.

· The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gives his annual address on the state of the economy and monetary policy at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade in Vancouver, Canada

· Canada Housing Starts (November)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/ S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra visits Malaysia for talks with counterpart Anwar Ibrahim. Security, economic ties, and regional cooperation will be on their agenda.

· Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who took office in September, makes his first overseas visit to India, which analysts see as competing with China for influence in the Indian Ocean. Dissanayake will hold talks with the top Indian leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Colombo's debt crisis is expected to be among the key topics of discussion.

· India’s Upper House will hold a Constitution debate. Parliamentary members want to debate the essence of ten keywords from the Preamble of the Constitution, speaking on themes like equality, justice, sovereignty, independence, democracy, and socialism.

· Today is Independence Day in Kazakhstan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (November)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Machinery Orders (October)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (November)

· China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ NBS Press Conference

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· India HSBC Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Services PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The German Parliament (Bundestag) will hold a vote of confidence on the current government, setting up an early federal election in February. The current coalition essentially collapsed last month, creating a minority government.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Georgia, the Middle East, and Belarus.

· The EU’s 17th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Energy) will meet in Brussels. Following the presentation of a report on the future of geothermal energy (by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency), energy ministers will be invited to approve conclusions on the promotion of geothermal energy. Ministers will also discuss an EU grid action plan.

· The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) Leaders’ Summit takes place in Tallinn, Estonia, through December 18. Hosted by Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, it brings together the leaders of ten nations – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom – to discuss cooperation within the JEF framework and set new plans for adapting JEF activities to the evolving security landscape. The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a coalition of ten like-minded nations with high readiness forces configured to respond rapidly to crises. The JEF can integrate into larger international operations, such as those led by NATO or other security coalitions, and can conduct the full spectrum of operations. It enhances the deterrence messaging of NATO and provides agile, credible, and capable forces supporting JEF Participant Nations interests.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Montenegro Prime Minister Milojko Spajić at NATO Headquarters in Brussels to discuss security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a short press conference with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania , in Vilnius, Lithuania. She will then give a keynote speech at the Annual Economics Conference: Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts at the Palace of the Grand Dukes in Vilnius. She will then participate on a high-level panel at the conference.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the 8th anniversary of Madrid Foro Empresarial in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the CEPR Paris Symposium organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Banque de France and Sciences Po in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a speech on “The Future Roadmap of Bank of England’s RTGS Service” at the Fintech Connect Conference in London.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (November)

· France HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Germany HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Italy Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Building Permits (October)

· Belarus Industrial Production (November)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovakia Current Account (October)

· Turkey Budget Balance (November)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

· Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Day of Reconciliation in South Africa. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In the United States, electoral college electors meet in their states to vote for the new president and vice-president on separate ballots and confirm the results of the November 5 election, in which former president Donald Trump won a second term.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Mexico Private Spending Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

· Canada Inflation Rate (November)/ New Housing Price Index (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (October)

· USA Retail Sales (November)/ Redbook (December/14)/ Capacity Utilization (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Business Inventories (October)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Shanghai’s Vice Mayor, Hua Yuan, will attend an intercity forum in Taipei. The highly controversial visit comes as China-Taiwan relations are in a highly tense state. Taiwan's Beijing-friendly former president, Ma Ying-jeou, is then scheduled to make his second trip to China this year on Wednesday, leading a group of students on a nine-day trip.

· The Asia Development Bank-KDI Global Forum on Global Supply Chain and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific is held in Tokyo, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Singapore Balance of Trade (November)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Turkey to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Syria.

· EP President Metsola will award the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to María Corina Machado, the leader of Venezuela’s democratic forces, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the President-elect of Venezuela. A press conference with EP President Metsola and the laureates will occur after the ceremony.

· The EU Environmental Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss plastic pellet losses, end-of-life vehicles, and 2040 climate targets.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the European Council meeting that is taking place on December 19, the legislative overview for 2025, EU enlargement, and the future of Europe.

· The EU’s 3rd Accession Conference with Albania takes place in Brussels.

· Germany’s Green Party presents a draft of their electoral program.

· Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court will hear an oral hearing on the use of Ramstein for US drone missions in Yemen.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2024 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will then participate at the EDB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the SREP.

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)

· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

· Italy Balance of Trade (October)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

· Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Global

· The inaugural UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet to discuss the formation of the Southern Africa Alliance on Carbon Markets and Climate Finance in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3

· US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on Interest Rates/Fed Chair Powell press conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/13)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/13)/ Building Permits Prel (November)/ Current Account Q3/ Housing Starts (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/13)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ISE Economic Activity (October)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Macau to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the city’s return from Portuguese to Chinese control. The Chinese president would inaugurate Macau’s new administration, led by Sam Hou-fai, on Friday and inspect the city during his three-day trip.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Current Account Q3

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)/ Westpac Leading Index (November)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Loan Growth (November)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Brussels. An agenda has not been published yet.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip Lane will participate in a fireside chat at MNI Connect event (Virtual).

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ Construction Output (October)/ CPI Final (November)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (October)

· Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Qatar, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is Republic Day in Niger, a holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai will travel to Mar-A-Lago, Florida to meet with President-elect Donald Trump. Trump and Pichai are expected to talk about a wide-range of issues, but Pichai indicated in a recent interview AI will likely be the dominant issue of discussion.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (October)

· USA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3/ GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final Q3/ Existing Home Sales (November)/ CB Leading Index (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/13)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/18)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (December)

· El Salvador Current Account Q3/ Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam hosts a massive defense expo to diversify supplies after decades of relying on the old Soviet bloc. Weapons manufacturers from the U.S., Israel and 25 other countries will be among 200 registrants displaying combat facilities and gear for naval, army, air force and cyber functions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

· Bank of Japan meets to discuss interest rates/Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/14)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand New Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual news conference. The event, which usually goes on for hours, features Putin taking direct – but prepared/planted – questions from Russian citizens.

· The European Council meets in Brussels. EU leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak in person to the leaders. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also attend. The leaders will also discuss the situation in the Middle East and then hold a strategic discussion on how the EU can “consolidate its role on the international state and defend [its] interests and promote [its] positions.”

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Bulgaria to visit the multinational battle group at the Novo Selo training ground and meets Bulgarian Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/ BoE MPC Vote Cut/ Hike/ Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes

· Netherlands Unemployment Rate (November)

· European Union New Car Registrations (November)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

· France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

· Euro Area Current Account (October)

· Italy Construction Output (October)/ Current Account (October)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

· Spain Balance of Trade (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (November)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 20, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Federal Tax Revenues (November)

· Canada Retail Sales (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

· USA PCE Price Index (November)/ Personal Income (November)/ Personal Spending (November)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/20)

· Paraguay PPI (November)

· Colombia Interest Rate Decision

· Argentina Current Account Q3/ Economic Activity (October)

· Chile Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Ministers meet in Thailand for talks about the civil war in Myanmar and ways to resolve a nearly four-year-old conflict that has engulfed much of the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Credit Card Spending (November)

· South Korea PPI (November)

· Japan Inflation Rate (November)/ Core Inflation Rate (November)

· Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

· Taiwan Export Orders (November)

· Hong Kong Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Car Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

· Netherlands Consumer Confidence (December)

· Germany PPI (November)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)/ Central Government Debt (November)

· Hungary Gross Wage (October)

· France PPI (November)

· Switzerland Current Account Q3

· Greece Current Account (October)

· Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ PPI (November)

· Poland Retail Sales (November)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

· Serbia Current Account (October)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (December)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (November)/ Total Credit Growth (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 21, 2024

Global

· The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, occurs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo will host EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Kaja Kallas, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, Greece’s PM Kyriákos Mitsotákis and his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson for the North-South Summit, a two-day security gathering in Saariselkä.

· Romania’s Parliament convenes for the first time since the recent elections, which were nullified by the Romanian High Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Sāo Tomé Day, marking the day when the first Europeans arrived in 1471.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Spain, the Loteria de Navidad, aka El Gordo, or the “Fat One”, annual Christmas lotto is held. It is the world’s biggest lottery, with no single jackpot but rather a complex share-the-wealth system.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, marking the day in 1987 when two political parties, ZANU and ZAPU, came together to form ZANU-P.F.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 12/15/24 Francis Kelly 12/15/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

A New Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, The CFPB’s Says He’s Not Leaving, the Blockchain Association’s Powerhouse Policy Summit, And Are We Getting Ready to Spin Out the GSEs?

December 16 - 20, 2024

We are a little more than a week away from the two-week holiday break (the ultimate quiet time in Washington), but things remain busy as regulators and Congress prepare to hit the ground running in 2025.

Last week, we saw the final pieces of the Congressional puzzle fall into place with the election of Congressman French Hill (R-AK) as the new chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Hill, a former banker and the crypto expert, has said his first priority will be on the regulatory burden community banks and "the misdirected oversight and the regulatory priorities of the SEC," as well as finding a way to craft a market structure bill for digital assets.

Hill, who is known to have an excellent relationship with incoming Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), also spoke last week about the need to end the conservatorship of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, an issue which seems to be suddenly gaining steam (we would note the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) releasing a letter and report released a letter and report last week saying improved finances at the two mortgage giants have improved considerably, making them likely more attractive to investors and for the government to sell its stake in the companies. The incoming "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, will likely consider spinning out Freddie and Fannie as among their recommendations to restructure the federal government.

Also last week, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Director Rohit Chopra said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing that he is not planning to step down when President Trump takes office in January. He acknowledged that the President can remove him, but for now, he will wait and see what happens. (Our view? Chopra will get fired on day one.)

Chopra also keeps churning out new regulations. Last week, the CFPB released a final rule restricting banks' overdraft fee charges for customers with insufficient funds. The rule caps overdrafts at $5. As you might imagine, banks are unhappy with the rule.

Looking forward to what is happening this week, the Blockchain Association is holding its annual policy summit in Washington. The list of speakers is, quite frankly, quite impressive by trade association standards and shows the rapidly increasing power of blockchain and crypto in Washington. Both the chair of the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee are speaking along with eight additional senators and members of Congress, two SEC Commissioners, one CFTC commissioner, a number of senior Treasury and IRS officials, and the CEOs of virtually all the major blockchain companies.

Below are all the other noteworthy events in the financial regulatory world in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, December 18, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on "Next to the Fall: The Climate-Driven Insurance Crisis is Here And Getting Worse.".

House of Representatives

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Congressional Joint Committees

· Wednesday, December 18, 2:30 p.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing entitled “Trade Wars & Higher Costs: The Case Against Trump’s Tariffs”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

December 18-19 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss the economy and interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference on Thursday at 2:00 p.m.
U.S. Treasury Department
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Tuesday, December 17, 1:00 p.m. – SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda will participate on a panel discussion entitled “View from the SEC” at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit in Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, December 18, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting. They will consider the 2025 Final Budget and Accounting Support Fee for the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board whether to approve the 2025 Final Budget and Accounting Support Fee for the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
Thursday, December 19, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Tuesday, December 17, 1:35 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate in the “View from the CFTC” fireside chat at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit.

Wednesday, December 18 9:30 a.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting. They will consider two items: 1) The Final Rule on Real-Time Public Reporting Requirements and Swap Data Recordkeeping and Reporting Requirements and 2) The Final Rule on Regulations to Address Margin Adequacy and to Account for the Treatment of Separate Accounts by Futures Commission Merchants.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Tuesday, December 17, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA Board will hold a board meeting. They will consider two items: 1) NCUA’s 2024-2026 Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility Strategic Plan, and 2) the NCUA’s 2024 Annual Performance Plan.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Wednesday, December 18, 9:30 a.m. – The FTC will hold a virtual public workshop entitled “Competition Snuffed Out: How Predatory Pricing Harms Competition, Consumers, and Innovation.”

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Trade Associations

Monday – Tuesday, December 16-17, the Blockchain Association holds its annual policy summit. Speakers include incoming Senate Banking Committee Chair Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), incoming House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AR), SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda, CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger, and anumber of other members of Congress and the Biden Administration.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Wednesday, December 18, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds an event entitled “BRICS cooperation: An alternative to the current global order?”
Thursday, December 19, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event with National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard on how to strengthen America’s supply chains.

Please let us know if you have any questions or want to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 12/13/24 Francis Kelly 12/13/24

The Global Week Ahead

The Implications of Syria’s Assad Regime Stunningly Collapse, What Next for South Korea? Why Romania’s Election Crisis Matters to Markets, And A Big Week for Central Banks.

There is an old saying that in life, there are weeks when nothing happens. and then there are weeks when decades happen. This has been one of those weeks, and the fallout will likely be felt for a long time. First, the more than 50-year despotic Assad Dynasty in Syria has collapsed, suddenly and significantly reshaping the Middle East.

It all happened in less than two weeks. when rebels launched a surprise, lightning-fast offensive from northwestern Syria, stunning the Syrian Army. While we will be writing a more in-depth analysis of what this means for markets, we would two initial market-impactful implications:

First, aside from Bashar Assad, the biggest losers here are Iran and Russia. Iran spent decades carving out a “Shia Crescent” from Iran’s border through Syria and into Southern Lebanon, giving them direct access to the Mediterranean. Now, with Israel effectively destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon and Assad’s defeat, Iran has now lost this strategic pathway.

Moreover, we would note there have been numerous reports Israel has taken advantage of the situation and has spent the last 24 hours destroying every major military airfield, military radar facilities, and anti-aircraft capability in Syria, depriving Iran of their first line of defense against Israel. Now, if Iran were again attacking Israel, forcing Israel to retaliate or, more significantly, if Israel wants to go after Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities or oil production facilities, Israel now has a clear path of attack, which they have never had before.

For Russia, Assad’s defeat is a major strategic loss: Syrian rebels have demanded Russia withdraw from their prized naval base in Tartus (which, as of this writing, it appears they are doing) as well as evacuate all ground forces inside Syria who have been supporting Assad. The loss of the Tartus port is stunning for Russia, as the Russian Navy only has two warm-water naval ports, one in Crimea and the facilities in Tartus.

Second, the true intentions of the Syrian rebels are confusing and to many experts, worrisome. Rebel forces are led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former member of Al Qaeda who was captured by USS forces in Iraq and who spent five years in a US prison in Iraq. After being released, he went to Syria to fight in the Syrian Civil War, establishing Al Queda’s Syrian branch. He and his forces, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, eventually broke with Al Qaeda and professes to be more moderate now. Joining al-Jolani are Kurdish forces (whom US Special Forces have been assisting on the ground for a number of years). But has al-Jolani and his group truly moderated themselves? Or are we about to see Syria become the new Afghanistan, led by a radical Islamist organization while being riven by internal fighting among various other factions?

While all this is going on, several other nations were and continue to be dealing with internal crisis’, most notably South Korea and Romania. In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol created a political crisis last week by briefly declaring martial law. He was forced to retract it soon after, but politicians and citizens are demanding he resign and face criminal charges. We expect Yoon to step down soon but there remain many questions as to what led to him declaring martial law and what happens next to this critical Asian democracy.

Meanwhile, in Romania, the nation’s top court annulled a recent first-round presidential vote which was won by a far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, who is seen as aligned with Moscow. The significance of this for markets is Romania is both a member of the EU and NATO and is now facing potential civil strife until a new election can be held. The Romanian Intelligence Service and Interior Ministry released files last week showing significant “foreign interference” – e.g., Russian – in the election which led to the Constitutional Court annulling the election. Among the findings was declassified evidence that, among other things, Tiktok – which Georgescu used extensively to campaign – had given his campaign massive preferential treatment over the other candidates. The second-round vote was scheduled for today – Sunday – but the court order effectively canceled it.

We would also note Georgia is undergoing similar troubles as evidence emerged of significant Russian interference in their October 26th election which has led the newly elected Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, to announce he was discontinuing talks with the EU about Georgia joining – despite the Georgian Constitution having enshrined in it the goal of joining the EU.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it is going to be a big week for central banks. The European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Central Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Canada, and the Swiss Central Bank all meet this week to set interest rates – a week before the U.S. Federal Reserve meets on interest rates. Markets will be closely attuned to where rates are set and any indication of how the Fed may act in concert – or not.

In the U.S. this coming week, the CPI print comes out on Wednesday and the PPI is out on Thursday. In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey is out Friday – which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan – and in China, inflation figures are out on Monday and trade data is out on Tuesday.

Moving to Europe, the UK GDP and consumer confidence reports are out on Friday.

Below are all the other major events and reports we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania was scheduled to hold a presidential election run-off. However, late last week the Romanian Supreme Court ruled the election was invalid due to foreign interference and has ordered new elections.

· Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 9, 2024

Global

· The BRICS holds the Seminars on Institutional Development Issues in Moscow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The OECD releases its Latin America Outlook.

· The Wall Street Journal holds its annual CEO Summit in Washington and continues through December 10. A number of Fortune 100 CEOs along with members of Congress and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

· USA Wholesale Inventories (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· International Atomic Energy Agency officials and international experts arrive in Japan for a review of the safety and regulatory aspects of the discharge of ALPS-treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the sea

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (October)/ Bank Lending (November)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3

· Australia Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)

· China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce a new Prime Minister following the French Parliament’s no confidence vote last week which forced Prime Minister Michel Barnier to step down.

· Large protests by European farmers are expected in Brussels following the EU reaching a deal with Mercosur last week. Meanwhile, in France, French train, dock, and public sector workers will hold a series of strikes.

· The Netherlands will impose border controls for six months to limit migration.

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will review current macroeconomic development and exchange views with the IMF on euro area policies. Ministers will also discuss the overall budgetary situation and prospects in the euro area and review the economic and fiscal situation of the euro area member states.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet through December 10. The Council will aim to reach a political agreement on two Commission proposals on fishing opportunities. These are the proposal covering fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and the North Sea for 2025 and, in the case of some stocks, also for 2026, and the proposal on fishing opportunities for 2025 in the Mediterranean and the Black Seas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden will give a speech at OMFIF in London on financial stability and the Bank of England’s toolkit.

· Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to testify at his corruption trial. He was scheduled to testify last week but it was delayed until this week.

· Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visits Norway.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 23rd International Economic Forum on Africa 2024 will take place in Paris.

· Tanzania celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ (August)/ (September)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Global

· UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Later they will discuss the situation in Gaza.

· The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (November)

· USA Nonfarm Productivity Q3/ Unit Labour Costs Q3/ Redbook (December/07)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/06)

· El Salvador PPI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's Nihon Hidankyo, an organization that represents survivors of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, receives the Nobel Peace Prize as official award ceremonies get underway in Oslo and Stockholm. The literature prize will be awarded to "The Vegetarian" author Han Kang from South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision/Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (October)

· Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)/ Machine Tool Orders (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet. Ministers will be informed of the progress of work within the Council on proposals to reform the EU’s customs legislation. The presidency will provide the information based on a presidency progress report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (November)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

· Germany Inflation Rate (November)

· Romania Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Industrial Production (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

· Italy Industrial Production (October)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

· Greece Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 2024 UNESCO Forum on Higher Education in Africa will take place in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (November)

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Global

· UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to South Africa to meet with President Cyril Ramaphosa. They will discuss global and regional issues, especially South Africa’s G20 Presidency (which they hold in 2025). On Thursday, Guterres will head to Lesotho. He will be meeting with His Majesty King Letsie III, as well as the Prime Minister and other officials. While there, he is scheduled to address the Parliament as Lesotho celebrates the bicentenary of the Basotho nation.

· IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva will take part in a fireside chat at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York.

· The OPEC monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

· Today is the deadline for U.S. governors to certify their states’ presidential election results and prepare seven Certificates of Ascertainment, one of which must be sent to the archivist and six of which will be used by electors for electoral votes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/06)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (November)

· Brazil Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Bank of Canada meets to discuss and decide Interest Rates. A press conference follows.

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

· Peru Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Beijing, the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference meets. The two-day meeting, held behind closed doors and highly anticipated by markets, is expected to shape the country's growth goals and stimulus plans for 2025.

· The Asian Development Bank (ADB) releases its latest regional economic outlook after its September report projected "developing Asia" -- comprising 46 ADB members, including China and India -- would post economic growth of 5.0% this year and 4.9% in 2025.

· Japan hosts SEMICON Japan in Tokyo. More than 1000 companies and organizations will be showing their wares at 3-day conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (December)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ PPI (November)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

· Australia RBA Chart Pack

· Malaysia Retail Sales (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (November/29)

· Kazakhstan PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal hold opening remarks at the 7th German-Ukrainian Economic Forum in Berlin.

· Switzerland’s parliament will elect a new president.

· French railway workers are planning to go on strike over efforts to privatize the railroad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Inflation Rate (November)

· Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ Auto Production (November)/ Auto Sales (November)

· Slovakia Construction Output (October)

· Russia Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in Burkina Faso, a national holiday.

· Madagascar holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Yemen.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/07)/ PPI (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/11)

· Brazil Retail Sales (October)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Canada Building Permits (October)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/07)

· Australia Employment Change (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q3

· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

· India Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet. Ministers will discuss he adoption of the Council decision setting the date for the lifting of checks on persons at the internal land border with and between Bulgaria and Romania on the agenda of the meeting of ministers. Both countries already fully apply Schengen rules from 31 March 2024. Internal air and maritime border controls with Bulgaria and Romania have also been lifted from that date.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council meets to discuss and decide interest rates. A press conference will follow.

· Netherlands Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/06)

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)/ GDP (October) / Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Germany Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will host his Angolan counterpart João Lourenço on a state visit to solidify relations between the two countries who share deep historical ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ PPI (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ SACCI Business Confidence (October)/ SACCI Business Confidence (November)

· Angola Inflation Rate (November)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, December 13, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

· Canada Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Manufacturing Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

· USA Import Prices (November)/ Export Prices (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/13)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

· Peru Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (November)/ Import Prices (November)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Visitor Arrivals (October)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)

· Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q4/ Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

· India Bank Loan Growth (November/29)/ Deposit Growth (November/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/06)

· China New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Rome. Abbas will also meet with Pope Francis.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet. Ministers will discuss a general approach (member states position) on a proposed directive which lays down minimum rules to prevent migrant smuggling. The law would replace the current EU legal framework which dates back to 2002. The objective of the proposal is to bring member states criminal law on issues such as the definition and sanctioning of migrant smuggling closer together. Ministers are aiming to settle on a member state position on a proposal to update the 2011 directive to strengthen criminal law on child sexual abuse and sexual exploitation. The goal of the update, proposed in February 2024 by the European Commission, is to expand the definitions of the offences of sexual abuse and sexual exploitation of children and to ensure more effective investigation and prosecution of these crimes. Finally, they will discuss a partial general approach on key elements of a proposal for a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law. The proposal is one of the initiatives of the 2020 Capital Markets Union action plan. It aims at encouraging cross-border investment within the single market through targeted harmonization of insolvency proceedings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Romania Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)

· Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· France Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Inflation Rate (November)

· Poland Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (October)

· Greece Construction Output Q3

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (October)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran is set to impose harsher dress codes that would ban women from wearing tight clothing and outfits that expose the body below the neck or above the ankles and forearms. The hardline parliament approved the new edict despite opposition from reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, and two years after earlier dress codes sparked protests.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The South Korean opposition in the parliament are planning to attempt to move an impeachment vote against President Yook Suk Yeol unless he steps down. This comes after he declared martial law last week. However, South Korean ruling party leaders have announced Yoon will be stepping down soon in an “orderly, early” way.

· Tokyo-based startup Space One is set to launch its Kairos rocket from western Japan, less than a year after its first attempt ended in failure. A successful launch this time would make it the first private venture in Japan to put a satellite into orbit. The company's backers include Canon Electronics and rocket-engine maker IHI.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD) (November)/ Vehicle Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia holds presidential elections which are sure to be highly contentious. Georgia has been rocked by protests after the Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, announced the government will suspect talks on EU accession despite the goal of joining is written into the country’s constitution. The President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichivili, has said the October 26th parliamentary elections were fraudulent with heavy interference from Russia – and therefore, illegitimate. Kobakhidze, by saying the Parliament is illegitimate and as the parliament elects the president, has said she will not recognize the outcome and stand-down.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Rome to discuss the situation in southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Global

· The UN Internet Governance Forum begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 3rd China Indian Ocean Region Forum on Blue Economy Development Cooperation meets in Kunming, China. clean energy, climate change response, disaster reduction on the agenda among other topics,

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite & Services PMI Flash (December)

Fulcrum Perspectives

The New 119th Congress Gets Sworn In, Big Banks and Trade Associations Sue The Fed Over Stress Tests As Fed Says It Will Overhaul Stress Test Regime

December 30, 2024 - January 3, 2025

Peace on Earth and Goodwill to All Men – The World Goes (Mostly) Quiet for Christmas Week

December 22 - 29, 2024

Sunday, December 22, 2024:

Monday, December 23, 2024

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Friday, December 27, 2024

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Germany’s Century-Long Re-Armament Challenge, How the EU Needs to Deal With Industrial Policy, Looking at Argentina President Milei’s Economic First Year, and The Return of Economic Statecraft

The Future of Europe

The Americas

Geopolitical Strategy and Economic Statecraft

Economics

The Wall Street Journal Calls for Fed Vice Chair Barr to be Removed, The FDIC Inspector General’s Scathing Report About Harassment Under Chair Gruenberg’s Watch, And Washington Goes Totally Quiet

December 23 - 27, 2024

U.S. Congressional Hearings

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

We're a bit late but here are a few books we have read recently we recommend for your or a friend's Christmas stocking.

Sunday, December 15, 2024

Monday, December 16, 2024

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Friday, December 20, 2024

Saturday, December 21, 2024

Sunday, December 22, 2024

The Implications of Syria’s Assad Regime Stunningly Collapse, What Next for South Korea? Why Romania’s Election Crisis Matters to Markets, And A Big Week for Central Banks.

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