Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 12/8/24 Francis Kelly 12/8/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The CFPB Orders the Supervision of Google, Paul Atkins Nominated for SEC Chair, the FSOC Meets One Last Time in 2024, and Treasury Gets Ready to Hold the 2024 Outbound Investment Security Conference

December 9 - 13, 2024

The Trump Transition keeps racing ahead as President-elect Trump made multiple nominations in the last week (by historical comparison, Trump is moving close to five times faster nominating his team than President Biden did in 2020, and four times faster than President Obama did in 2009). And the President-elect made his first major regulatory nomination by choosing Paul Atkins to serve as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission – a move cheered by the markets and a number of members of Congress from both sides of the aisle (full disclosure: Paul has been a friend for 30 years going back to when we served at the SEC together in the early 1990s).

Meanwhile, while most regulatory agencies are winding down their activities, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) seems to be ramping up its work. On Friday, the CFPB placed Google Payment Corporation under its supervisory authority – a designation puts the tech company on the level of monitoring and oversight that banks do. Google is going to fight the designation – stand by because this is going to become a major battle in Washington in 2025.

Also this past week, the Financial Stability Oversight Council met (once again not giving any public notice in advance). The agenda, according to a readout press release, included:

“an update from Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff on recent hedge fund market developments, including the recent growth of overall leverage across the industry. Staff also described regulators’ efforts to improve counterparty credit risk management practices at supervised institutions that provide financing to hedge funds, and presented on potential policy responses to mitigate identified risks.

The Council also received a presentation from staff of Treasury, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on developments in the life insurance sector, including affiliations with offshore reinsurers and private equity firms, and regulators’ ongoing efforts to enhance the sector’s resilience.

In addition, the Council received an update from member agency staff and a Ginnie Mae senior official on how vulnerabilities in the nonbank mortgage servicing sector have evolved since the Council issued its Report on Nonbank Mortgage Servicing in May 2024. Staff also described efforts by states and federal agencies to implement the recommendations in the Council’s report.”

Finally, we would note that this coming week the Treasury Department will be holding its 2024 Outbound Investment Security Conference. The event will allow Treasury officials along with State Department officials to discuss the newly created regulatory regime for outbound investment in critical industries.

Below are all the other events of note happing in the financial regulatory world in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, December 11, 9:45 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Consumer Protection: Protecting Workers’ Money and Fighting for the Dignity of Work.” Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra will testify.

- The Committee will also go into executive session and vote on the nominations of Caroline Crenshaw to be re-confirmed as an SEC Commissioner and Gordon Ito to be a member of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

· Wednesday, December 11, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Sounding the Alarm: Pathways and Possible Solutions to the U.S. Fiscal Crisis."

House of Representatives

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no Federal Reserve Board Governor speeches or events scheduled as the Fed goes into its “Quiet Period” in advance of the December 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, December 9, 1:00 p.m. – The Treasury Department will hold the 2024 Outbound Investment Security Conference.

· Thursday, December 12, 9:00 a.m. – the Treasury Department’s Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance will meet virtually. The agenda includes Climate-related financial risk and the insurance sector, Cyber insurance developments and international insurance issues, Receiving status updates from each of its subcommittees and from FIO on its activities.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, December 9, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will speak at the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) annual conference on current SEC and PCOAB Developments in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, December 10, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Investor Advisory Committee meets. You can see the full agenda HERE.

· Wednesday, December 11 – SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will give a speech at the Competitive Enterprise Institute annual summit entitled “Woke Capital and ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance)”

· Thursday, December 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, December 9, 1:55 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger and SEC Commissioner Mark T. Uyeda will participate in the Financial Regulators Leading in the Digital Age fireside chat at Wharton’s Future of Finance Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· Tuesday, December 10, 9:30 a.m. – The CFTC Market Risk Advisory Committee will meet. You can see the full agenda HERE.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.

· Thursday, December 12, 10:00 a.m. – the Board of the Farm Credit Administration meets. The scheduled agenda will cover the Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Condition and Performance as well as the Semiannual Report on Office of Examination Operations.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, December 11, 10:00 a.m. – the Board of Directors of the Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation will meet.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Wednesday, November 11, 9:00 a.m. – International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers keynote remarks at the Reuters Next Summit.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday, December 9, 9:00 a.m. – The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) holds its annual conference. SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will speak.

· Monday, December 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute of International Finance holds a joint international bank regulation colloquium with the Bank Policy Institute (BPI) in New York (by invitation only).

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, December 11 – The Competitive Enterprise Institute holds its annual summit. SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will deliver remarks entitled “Woke Capital and ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance)”

· Wednesday, December 11, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold a event entitled “Bpifrance's experience of promoting high-growth firms” (Bpifrance is a French government-owned promotional bank that was established in 2012 to support the development of high-growth French firms.)

· Wednesday, December 11, 1:00 p.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a book launch event entitled “The Central Bank as Crisis Manager”

· Thursday, December 12, 9:00 a.m. – The Farm Foundation holds a virtual forum, beginning at 9 a.m., on "Tax Year 2025: Potential Impacts and Opportunities for Farmers and the Agriculture Sector."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 12/6/24 Francis Kelly 12/6/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington’s Regulatory World Continues to Get Quieter and Quieter; Elon Musk Wants to “Delete” The CFPB

December 2 - 6, 2024

There really is not much going on in the regulatory world this coming week. Some Fed Governor speeches, a couple of fireside chats with SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the future of technology and the future of finance sum it all up.

Last week (on Friday, when we were all recovering from our Thanksgiving feasts), there was an unannounced Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting at the Treasury Department. Why they held it on an otherwise sleepy Thanksgiving Friday is anyone’s guess. According to the post-meeting press release, “the preliminary agenda for the executive session includes an update on the Council’s Hedge Fund Working Group; a presentation on the life insurance sector; and an update on the Council’s Nonbank Mortgage Servicing Task Force. The preliminary agenda for the open session includes the Council’s 2024 annual report.”

Elsewhere, President-elect Trump’s friend and confidant, Elon Musk – who is co-chairing the President’s so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) tweeted out, “Delete the CFPB [Consumer Finance Protection Bureau] There are too many duplicative regulatory agencies.” We will see how that turns out when Musk and his co-chair, Vivek Ramaswamy, get rolling on DOGE. And we are sure Congress (starting with Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who almost single-handedly created the agency) will have much to say – pro and con – if the duo includes eliminating the CFPB.

Finally, we would note—as we noted last week—that the Great Washington Parlor Game of Who Gets What Presidential Nomination continues apace. Just before Thanksgiving, there were numerous reports that President-elect Trump was on the verge of nominating former Securities and Exchange Commissioner Paul Atkins as the next Chair of the SEC. We expect a number of financial regulatory nominations will be made in the coming week.

Below is all we see happening in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

see happening in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, December 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled Innovation Revolution: How Technology is Shaping the Future of Finance.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, December 2, 3:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, December 3, 12:35 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the labor market and monetary policy at a Detroit Economic Club Event with Governor Adriana Kugler, Detroit, Michigan.

· Wednesday, December 4, 1:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participated in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit, New York, N.Y.

· Friday, December 6, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman delivers remarks at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, December 3, 3:00 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the 2024 Healthy Markets Association Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, December 5, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give remarks followed by a brief moderated Q&A session at the American Bar Association’s Federal Regulation of Securities Winter Meeting in Washington D.C.

· Thursday, December 5, 2:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, December 3, 4:00 a.m. EST – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fire-side chat “U.S. Regulatory Outlook for Digital Assets: Navigating Post Policy Elections” at the 2024 DigiAssets Connect in Geneva, Switzerland.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· December 5 – 6 – The American Bar Association holds its Federal Regulation of Securities Winter Meeting in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, December 4, 10:00 a.m. – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a virtual discussion on "Farming and the Federal Budget: Will Farmers Face a New Age of Austerity?"

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 12/1/24 Francis Kelly 12/1/24

The Global Week Ahead

Syria’s Simmering Civil War Explodes Again, France’s Government on Brink of Crisis, OPIC+ Meets to Possibly Approve Production Increases, Key International Chairs Change Hands, And A Big Week of Economic Data Releases

December 1 - 8, 2024

We are four weeks away from 2025, but 2024 is going out with a bang. In Syria, where the civil war had been at a relatively low boil this past year, all hell broke out when rebels (mostly aligned with radical Islamist groups) launched a massive surprise attack on the city of Aleppo, the most populous governate and city in Syria. They captured it with relative ease and continued to press their attacks south toward the city of Hama, hammering Syrian Army forces (who are supported by the Russian Air Force and elements of the Russian Army).

The reignited conflict brings a new element of uncertainty and risk to the Middle East and is seen as a significant blow to Russia and Iran, both of whom have been propping up and helping to defend the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (who was in Moscow when the offensive began and had to rush back to Damascus to deal with it).

Meanwhile, in France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen gave French Prime Minister Michel Barnier until Monday to come up with more concessions (Barnier had already acceded to earlier Le Pen demands to drop planned tax increases) in the hotly debated 2025 budget or face a no-confidence vote in parliament which would throw the government into crisis. Markets have been selling off in the face of what is likely to be a wild week politically in Paris.

Also, in Europe this week, NATO member foreign ministers will meet in Brussels for an important discussion on how to further aid Ukraine. The meeting comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested in a media interview this past week that an offer of NATO membership for territory currently under Ukraine’s control could end “the hot stage of the war.”

Also this week, new leadership comes (or is about to come) to three important international seats:

The US will take the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.
South Africa officially takes the presidency of the G20 from Brazil for 2025.
Poland begins laying the groundwork for its upcoming role as President of the European Union on January 1 and will continue until June 2025.

We would also note that OPEC+ meets this week to discuss possibly increasing production output—a highly contentious issue among the oil-producing states. The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1, but behind-the-scenes disagreements forced it to be postponed until December 5.

Looking at the economic radar screen this week, markets are watching the US jobs report released this Friday. Wall Street consensus estimates are roughly in the 200,000-plus range. Also, this week, the ISM Indices – manufacturing and services, on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are out on Friday.

In Europe, Germany—which continues to struggle economically—will release important factory order data, industrial production figures, and its trade balance. These releases come as Volkswagen workers begin to go on strike over upcoming layoffs and plant closures.

In Asia, Japan releases both wage and consumption activity reports on Friday, while China releases its November PMIs and the Caixin indices.

To top it all off, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give much-watched speeches on their views of the global economy on Wednesday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and market events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Global

· South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will bring the media on Monday, December 2, on the South African agenda for the year.

· The U.S. assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

· COP16 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and goes through December 13.

· Today is the first day of Advent.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden departs for a trip to Angola. The purpose of the meeting is to improve US-African relations but also highlight a U.S. backed railway project.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan’s President Willam Lai continues a tour of the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu – all of whom have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

· Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds parliamentary elections.

· Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund.

· Ursala von der Leyen formally begins her second term as European Commission President.

· Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Romania Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 2, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council meets on the situation of children in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly meets Baltic counterparts in Riga, Latvia.

· Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel presents her memoir 'Freedom' in a joint appearance with former President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in a conversation organized by the Queens Chamber of Commerce.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao makes an official visit to Malaysia for talks with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The trip comes as the small country of about 1.3 million people prepares to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as its 11th member state. Malaysia chairs the bloc next year.

· Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli visits China, casting off a tradition in which the Himalayan nation's leaders make India their first foreign trip after taking office. Oli is expected to request a waiver on a $216 million Chinese loan used to build the country's third international airport. The airport has not drawn any international flights since its opening last year.

· The trial begins of Malaysian ex-prime minister Najib Razak on charges of taking bribes, money laundering linked to 1MDB scandal.

· Today is Saba Day in Saba, celebrating the independence of the small island in the Netherlands Antilles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (October)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ Retail Sales (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Private House Approvals (October)/ RBA Jacobs Speech/ Commodity Prices (November)

· Japan Capital Spending Q3/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a deadline set by French opposition leader Marine Le Pen to offer new, farther reaching budget concessions or face a no-confidence vote which could topple the government.

· German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits China through December. On Sunday, before departing for Beijing, Baerbock strongly criticized China for supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine.

· German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius visits Norway for talks with Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram.

· Romania’s top court is expected to rule on whether to annul the first round of presidential elections (the second round is scheduled for December 8). The challenge to the results were brought after allegations of external interference in the elections by Russia.

· Germany’s IG Metall union calls for possible warning strikes in Volkswagen factories across the country.

· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will give his annual foreign policy speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London. Earlier in the day, Starmer hosts Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis for bilateral talks.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels through December 3. Ministers will discuss EU demographic challenges, labor and skills shortages in the EU, and the traineeships directive.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

· Bank of England Director of Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Lee Foulger gives a speech at the Bloomberg UK Policy Series in London.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings Q3

· Netherlands Retail Sales (October)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (November)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (September)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ New Car Registrations (November)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will give testimony at his ongoing corruption trial. He is the first sitting Israeli prime minister to testify in a public corruption trial.

· Today is UAE National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The SenHabitat 2024 begins in Dakar, Senegal bringing together investors and government officials focused on real estate, housing, and construction

· Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give closing remarks before hybrid Midwest Agriculture Conference entitled "The Changing Landscape for Agricultural Inputs."

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Gross Fixed Investment (September)

· USA Redbook (November)/30/ JOLTs Job Openings (October)/ JOLTs Job Quits (October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/29)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (November)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· US Space Force opens a unit at Yokota Air Base in Japan.

· The 20th Tokyo-Beijing Forum takes place in Tokyo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/03)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

· Australia Current Account Q3/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q3

· Hong Kong: The British Chamber of Commerce in China will release its annual business sentiment survey, followed by the German chamber's confidence survey.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO holds a two-day foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also receive His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels. Ministers will adopt a recommendation on smoke- and aerosol-free environments, focusing on key outdoor areas like playgrounds and restaurant terraces, as well as emerging tobacco and related products such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and heated herbal products. The Council will also discuss the state of play of the revision of pharmaceutical legislation in the EU, focusing on regulatory incentives. The package aims to improve security of supply of medicines and prevent shortages.

· The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ,begins a two-day state visit, accompanied by his first wife, Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani. King Charles and Queen Camilla will host the visitors at Buckingham Palace, and Starmer will meet the Emir for bilateral talks in Downing Street.

· FT Global Banking Summit opens in London. Speakers across the two-day event include Barclays chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan and Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation with Daniele Manca at GeoEconomy Talk organized by RCS Academy, the Business School of RCS MediaGroup, in collaboration with Il Corriere della Sera in Milan, Italy.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)

· Romania PPI (October)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

· France Budget Balance (October)

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

· Slovakia Real Wages Q3

· Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Ireland Construction Output Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Global

· The UN General Assembly meets on the situation in Gaza.

· The OECD releases its Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to speak before the Bloomberg/Global Interdependence Center College of Central Bankers Symposium.

· Brazil Industrial Production (October)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

· USA Fed Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/29)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services Business/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Activity (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/29)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

· Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (November)/ Judo Bank Services PMI Final (November)/ Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Chain Price Index Q3/ GDP Final Consumption Q3

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (November)

· India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK City minister and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq and Chinese ambassador to the UK Zeguang Zheng speak at the OMFIF China-UK Investor forum in London.

· The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will hear from Christine Lagarde, first in her capacity as President of the European Central Bank and then as Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board. Economic governance, geo-political risks, and the cost of living are all expected to feature prominently in the discussions. The hearings will be followed by another debate with Dominique Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech followed by a Q&A session at the 7th conference on behavioral financial regulations and policies organized by Herbert Simon Society in Milan, Italy.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (November)

· Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

· France HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)

· Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

· UK S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (November)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (November)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (November)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Investment Forum begins in Rabat, Morocco and runs through Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (November)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Consumer Confidence Q4

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (November)

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Thursday, December 5, 2024

Global

· Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria. The meeting was originally scheduled for December 1 but was moved to today. Ministers are going to consider reviving halted production beginning in January.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before in-person Charlotte Regional Business Alliance 2024 Economic Outlook event.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November)/30/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/04)

· Brazil Car Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Ivey PMI s.a (November)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Malaysia Motor Show begins in Kula Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech in Hiroshima to local business leaders.

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November)/30/ BOJ Nakamura Speech

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (November)

· Singapore Retail Sales (October)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) meets in Brussels. Ministers will be asked to approve the Council’s position (‘general approach’) on several legislative files: the directive on driving disqualifications, which forms part of the ‘road safety’ package, the regulation on passenger rights in the context of multimodal journeys and the regulation on enforcement of passenger rights in the EU. The Council will also hold a policy debate on air passenger rights and take note of a progress report on the combined transport directive.

· In Lyon, France, the Festival of Lights will be held. Originally aimed at expressing gratitude towards Mary, mother of Jesus, kicks off with hundreds of thousands of spectators expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Fintech Connect event in London on ‘The future road map of Bank of England’s real time gross settlement (RTGS) service.’

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a speech at the IIF Colloquium on European Banking Regulation & Supervision in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

· Germany Factory Orders (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

· Romania Retail Sales (October)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· France Industrial Production (October)/ HCOB Construction PMI (November)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

· Spain Industrial Production (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)/ BoE Greene Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

· Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

· Serbia PPI (November)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q3

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Friday, December 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Mercosur Summit begins in Uruguay, bringing leaders from the South American trading bloc together to discuss trade. Last week, the French parliament dealt a tough blow to a potential EU-Mercosur agreement, siding with French farmers who opposed the deal and voting 484 to 70 against signing a deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management Conference (Virtual)

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in "Emerging Technology and the Economy" conversation hosted by the Hoover Institution.

· Chile Inflation Rate (November)

· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (November)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

· Argentina Industrial Production (October)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

· USA Unemployment Rate (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Non-Farm and Manufacturing and Government Payrolls (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/Michigan Current Conditions Prel (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (October)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (October)/ Household Spending (October)/ Overtime Pay (October)/ Coincident Index Prel (October)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (October)

· Australia Home Loans (October)/ Investment Lending for Homes (October)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (November)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/29)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Minsk, Belarus to validate security concept of the Russian-Belarusian Union.

· The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) begins a two-day ministerial meeting in Malta. Foreign ministers will meet to review and address the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian area, as well as to evaluate the Organization's work in all its fields of activity.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels. Ministers will approve conclusions on the EU Agency for cybersecurity (ENISA) and on the Commission’s White Paper ‘How to master Europe’s digital infrastructure needs?’. They will also hold a policy debate on the digital decade 2030 objectives and targets in light of recent technological changes. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss ways to improve EU coordination and enhance the effectiveness of actions within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Finally, the incoming Polish presidency will inform the Council on its work program for the first semester 2025.

· Today is Finland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Netherlands Household Consumption (October)

· Germany Industrial Production (October)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

· Hungary Industrial Production (October)/ Budget Balance (November)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Italy Retail Sales (October)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Employment Change Q3

· Greece Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) holds its Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

· Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Ghana General Elections

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The 22nd Doha Forum on Democracy, Development and Free Trade begins and runs through December 8. The theme of this year’s two-day event is “The Innovation Imperative.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ghana holds both presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the government is facing an unprecedented shutdown in advance of the election unless they pass a provisional budget in advance of the election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds its presidential election run-off.

· Notre-Dame Cathedral official reopens to the public after a catastrophic fire five years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/29/24 Francis Kelly 11/29/24

The Geopolitical Outlook and Latin America 2025

The FLAR Conference 2024 Presentation

Cartegna, Colombia

It was a great pleasure to be asked to present at the FLAR Conference in Cartagena, Colombia recently. My presentation topic was broader geopolitical and geoeconomic trends that are likely to impact Latin America and which Latin American central banks need to consider in 2025. You can watch my presentation here (it begins at the 56-minute mark).

I recommend you continue to watch the panel presentation that followed for some great insights from the superb group I was honored to join to discuss and debate with on these timely topics.

Francis Kelly 11/29/24 Francis Kelly 11/29/24

Opening of the DWS Rep Office in Colombia

A Superb Trip to Bogotá Meeting with Colombia’s Financial Leaders As Colombia Increasingly Becomes a Central Focus of Global Investors

From left to right: DWS’ Aiviel Sanchez, Ana María Rodríguez, Stella Gonzales Vigil, Mary Wallace, and myself at the DWS Rep Office Reception held at the J.W. Marriott in Bogáta on November 19, 2024.

It was my great pleasure and honor to visit Colombia last week for meetings in Bogáta and Cartenga, all arranged by DWS. Having the opportunity to meet with the leadership of the nation’s pensions funds, bank insurance fund, and other financial leaders was both timely and fascinating. Colombia is emerging as a major hub for technology in the region. Foreign investors are increasingly looking to Colombia as a superb choice to invest for the long term.

While there, I was honored to speak at the DWS Rep Office opening reception. DWS is expanding its operations throughout the region and in particular in Colombia. Colombian investors are deeply focused on the geopolitical developments - particularly between the US and China as well as the upcoming review of the USMCA. There was a lot to discuss with the attendees - and I suspect there will be even more to cover in the months to come.

Francis Kelly 11/24/24 Francis Kelly 11/24/24

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Fragile Coalition Government Faces A No-Confidence Vote, G7 Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy to Discuss the Situation in Ukraine and Israel, Washington Goes Quiet to Celebrate Thanksgiving, and Putin Travels to Kazakhstan

November 24 - December 1, 2024

While Washington goes (relatively) quiet this week before the Thanksgiving holiday, plenty of important events are taking place worldwide. First, we would note a high-stakes meeting on Monday between French Prime Minister Michel Barnier and French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen to try to hammer out an agreement on the proposed 2025 budget. Le Pen has threatened to call for a no-confidence vote, which would likely shatter the French government's fragile coalition. Le Pen is also awaiting a verdict on the criminal case against her in French court this week – adding further tension in Paris.

Meanwhile, the G7 foreign ministers gather in Italy to discuss Ukraine and the Middle East. We would not the next time the G7 foreign ministers meet, it will be a very different group, with President-elect Trump's Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio there and likely new foreign ministers representing Germany, Canada, and perhaps Japan. All are likely to lean more to the right politically than the current group.

Kazakhstan will be hosting the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend, where he seeks to sign a number of energy deals to boost Russian oil and gas exports. His visit comes as his War on Ukraine is escalating to new levels, with Ukrainian forces empowered to use US and other NATO member-made advanced missiles against Russian (and North Korean) forces. Early reports from the battlefield suggest the weapons are having a deadly effect on Russian forces, killing at least one senior Russian commander and hundreds of North Korean troops.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, US markets will be quiet, with Thanksgiving celebrated on Thursday and markets closed. However, a number of important data reports will be released this week, as the October PCE and personal income and consumption data will be released on Wednesday, which will also be watched in advance of the upcoming December 18th Fed meeting. Additionally, Fed FOMC minutes are being released on Tuesday. The Conference Board's consumer confidence report will be released on Tuesday, too.

In Asia this week, Japan releases CPI, Labor market, and several other major reports. And in Europe, the European Central Bank releases its consumer expectations on Friday. There will be a Eurozone inflation print on Friday. Germany will see the release of the Ifo survey on Monday and retail sales on Friday.

Below is our weekly report of all the major political and economic issues and events we are watching closely this week. Happy Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Senior Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong visits China. It will be a six-day visit and his first visit since stepping down as Prime Minister in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL). PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

· Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 25, 2024

Global

· G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Fuggi and Anagni, Italy.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, followed by consultations.

· The 29th Conference of States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, seeking cuts to such munitions, begins in The Hague and continues until Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US President Joe Biden hosts traditional pardon of a Thanksgiving turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

· USA CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October)

· Colombia Business Confidence (October)

· Mexico Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim meets his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk Yeol, during a three-day official visit expected to see bilateral ties elevated to a strategic partnership. The two countries are aiming to finalize a free trade agreement in 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Retail Sales Q3

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

· Japan Coincident Index Final (September)/ Leading Economic Index Final (September)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French Prime Minister Michel Barnier meets with far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Le Pen has threatened to see a no-confidence vote that would break up the fragile coalition government over the proposed 2025 budget. Meanwhile, Le Pen will learn the verdict date of the embezzlement trial against her on November 27.

· German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius meets counterparts from France, Britain, Poland and Italy.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov in Berlin.

· The European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels. will discuss the overall functioning of the EEA Agreement and hold an orientation debate on “Enhancing Europe’s competitiveness and resilience: the role of the EEA cooperation.” The meeting will be chaired by Espen Barth Eide, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Norway.

· The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council meets in Brussels through November 26. Ministers will discuss expected to approve conclusions on providing ‘glocal’ opportunities for young people living in rural and remote areas and will discuss the evolving demographic trends shaping opportunities for rural youth. They will also seek to adopt a recommendation on attractive and sustainable careers in higher education and will hold a policy debate on boosting future-proof skills and competitiveness through higher education.

· The Energy Intelligence Forum takes place in London through November 27.

· German Ex-chancellor Angela Merkel launches her memoir 'Freedom: Memories 1954 - 2021' (Freiheit: Erinnerungen 1954 – 2021).

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference 2024 in London.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers Conference in London.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will participate in a panel at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers’ Conference on “inflation dynamics” in London.

· Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

· Spain PPI (October)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (October)/ Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (October)

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council meets on the protection of civilians in conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

· US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee minutes released/Redbook (November/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ New Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/29)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/22)/ Building Permits Final (October)

· Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The APAC Wind Energy Summit takes place in Seoul, South Korea. Asia-Pacific policymakers and industry leaders will discuss challenges in wind energy development as concern grows about how the sector will be impacted under a second Trump presidency in the United States. The three-day APAC Wind Energy Summit, hosted by the Global Wind Energy Council, highlights the region's key role in hitting global targets to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

· The 2nd China International Supply Chain Expo takes place in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

· Indonesia Property Price Index Q3

· Singapore Industrial Production (October)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France’s National Assembly holds a debate and vote on the prospect of a trade deal between the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc, which is strongly opposed by French farmers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech followed by Q&A at the EBF's Executive Committee Meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Poland Retail Sales (October)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Global

· The U.N. Environment Programme will convene the fifth session of its Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee in the South Korean city of Busan in pursuit of an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution. Environmentalists say policymakers need to commit to cutting production of plastic, not just reusing or recycling it. A lack of consensus on finer details and opposition from major petroleum-producing countries could hinder efforts to reach an agreement.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/22)/ PCE Price Index (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/23)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/22)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/26)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/22)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesians vote in nationwide regional polls to elect provincial governors, city leaders and regents. More than 3,000 candidates are set to compete across nearly 550 regions, including in the newly formed provinces South Papua, Central Papua and Highland Papua.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (November)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (October)/ Construction Work Done Q3

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

· Philippines Budget Balance (October)

· Malaysia PPI (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (November/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia's President Vladimir Putin expected to visit Kazakhstan for bilateral meetings. He will stay on for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Heads of State Summit through November 28.

· The Nordic-Baltic Summit will be held through November 28 in Sweden.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives introductory remarks at the opening dinner of a Conference on “Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy” organized by the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence DEC

· France Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Real Wage Growth (September)/ Retail Sales (October)/ GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Namibia holds general elections.

· Tanzania holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Global

· The World Trade Organization meets to advance the selection process for the next Director-General.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Thanksgiving in the US. Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)/ Bank Lending (October)/ PPI (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

· Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Development Bank announces its new president to succeed the outgoing Masatsugu Asakawa. Japan's former currency czar, Masato Kanda, was the sole candidate vying for the bank's top job. His expected appointment marks a continuation of the longstanding practice of the multilateral lender being led by a Japanese national since its founding in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/23)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (November)

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3/ RBA Bullock Speech

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on strengthening the key assets of cohesion policy and how to improve the shared management of cohesion funds in line with the principle of subsidiarity in the future.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (internal market and industry) meets in Brussels. The Council will exchange views on better regulation in the EU. Ministers will be invited to discuss the current state of play of the better regulation agenda – also in connection with the Draghi report – and to identify pathways for improvement.

· Italian trade unions will hold a general strike over the proposed Italian budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks at an online webinar "Advancements in Nature-Related Risks and Climate-Nature Scenarios for Financial Decision-Making" organized by NatureFinance and the European Central Bank.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the 25th anniversary of Euro 50 Group at Banque de France in Paris, France.

· Great Britain Car Production (October)

· Netherlands Business Confidence (November)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)

· Euro Area to Households & Companies (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/ Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence Final (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

· Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (November)

· Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

· Greece Total Credit (October)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Parliamentary Election

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (October)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (October)

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

Friday, November 29, 2024

Global

· The UN celebrates the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People.

· Today is “Black Friday” the beginning of the of the Christmas sales season.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden is expected to visit Angola.

· Today is “Black Friday,” the traditional beginning of the Christmas shopping season.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q3/ Budget Balance (September)

· Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

· USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/27)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s parliament returns to work. Debate gets underway as Japan's newly elected lawmakers return to the Diet after last month's snap elections. A supplementary budget bill will be among the items at the top of their agenda, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivering a policy speech Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (November)

· South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

· Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (November)

· Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Thailand Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Private Consumption (October)/ Private Investment (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· India Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/15)/ Deposit Growth (November/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/22)/ Infrastructure Output (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ireland holds general elections to elect the 34th Dáil (parliament).

· UK members of Parliament will MPs debate and vote on a bill to legalize assisted dying in England and Wales.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to adopt Council conclusions on strengthening the competitiveness of the EU and overcoming the fragmentation of the European Research Area based on the experiences implementing the ERA Policy Agenda (2022-2024). They will also adopt Council conclusions on a potential Europe-wide research and innovation initiative on advancing sustainable natural resource management, food systems security and the deployment of the bioeconomy, harnessing the potential of Central and Eastern Europe (BIOEAST, partnership). BIOEAST (the Central-Eastern European Initiative for Knowledge-based Agriculture, Aquaculture and Forestry in the Bioeconomy) was established in 2015 to establish a strategic research and innovation framework to work towards sustainable bioeconomy in Central and Eastern European countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Encuentro de Economia organized by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona, Spain.

· Netherlands Inflation Rate (November)

· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

· Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Persons (November)/ Unemployment Change (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Financial Stability Report

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (November)/ BoE Consumer Credit (October)/ Mortgage Approvals (October)/ Mortgage Lending (October)/ M4 Money Supply (October)/ Net Lending to Individuals (October)

· Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

· France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ PPI (October)

· Spain Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

· Italy Industrial Sales (September)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Poland Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Flash (November)

· Greece PPI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

· Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

· Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Saturday, November 30, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is due to depart for a tour of Taipei's remaining Pacific allies -- the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau. His office has yet to confirm plans for potential stopovers, possibly in the U.S. The trip could elicit an angry response from China, which has exerted heavy pressure on Lai since he took office in May, with two rounds of major military drills surrounding Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Retail Sales (October)

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (November)/ NBS General PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Iceland holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Global

· Ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (Opec+) meet in Vienna, Austria.

· South Africa takes the presidency of the G20 Presidency.

· Today is the first day of Advent.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological winter int the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Australia Commodity Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds parliamentary elections.

· Liechtenstein holds a referendum regarding a package of measures proposed by the Liechtenstein Employee Pension Foundation (SPL), directed at a state pension fund.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will meet in Kuwait to discuss regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/24/24 Francis Kelly 11/24/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

SEC Chair Gensler Makes It Official He’s Leaving As Is SEC Commissioner Lizarraga, Washington’s Favorite Parlor Game of Who Gets What Goes Full-Throttle, and Congress Makes Final, Half-Hearted Efforts at Crypto and Cannabis Legislation

November 25 - 29, 2024

Well, we made it to Thanksgiving week and wish everyone a restful, happy week ahead. In Washington, it will be officially dead quiet but unofficially incredibly active as Nation’s Capitol’s favorite parlor game – Who is Getting Which Nomination? – is at full throttle. Individuals and innumerable interest groups are furiously lobbying the Trump transition team behind the scenes to get their favorite candidate named to key regulatory and administration posts.

The biggest prize for the moment is who will be named Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. This past week, Chair Gary Gensler made it official by announcing he would step down on January 19, the day before the presidential inauguration. There will also be another opening at the SEC, as Commissioner Jamie Lizarraga surprised observers by announcing he would step down on January 17.

A number of outstanding candidates are being mentioned as the likely SEC Chair nominee, most notably former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins (full disclosure: Paul is a friend and former colleague—we served together at the SEC under then-SEC Chair Richard Breeden). Other names mentioned are other SEC alumni, such as Brad Bondi and Norm Champ.

Over at the besieged Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, embattled Chair Marty Gruenberg announced he, too, will step down on January 19. But unlike Gensler, his announcement was blasted by incoming Senate Banking Committee Chair, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), who – like most Republicans on Capitol Hill – wants him to step down now for his role in the scandals at the agency outlined by the various reports. Scott said: “I’ve called on Martin Gruenberg to resign from the agency for almost a year – yet he’s continued to play politics at the expense of the FDIC’s employees. This announcement is long overdue, but Chairman Gruenberg’s decision to remain in office until the last minute demonstrates his failure to accept accountability for his actions.”

No word yet on the thinking of the heads of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Rohit Chopra, or Commodities Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr has said he intends to stay.

There were four policy-related events of note this past week: First, Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) let it be known she is working to finalize a last-minute deal on cryptocurrency legislation. Our view: This is a waste of time and effort, as there is no time or appetite among Republicans to try to rush a bill through before the end of the year.

Second, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants to push a cannabis banking reform measure in one of the year-end budget extension bills. Again, like the Stabenow crypto effort, it has virtually zero chance of success.

Third, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said efforts to finalize any major bank rules before President-elect Trump takes office will not be finalized – including a much-battled over bank capital rule.

Fourth, a federal court struck down the SEC’s regulatory overhaul of the U.S. Treasury deal rules—a major blow to SEC Chair Gensler’s long-time efforts to redesign the Treasury marketplace. This is the third federal court decision this year striking down Gensler-led rulemakings.

As we pointed out above, it will be a very quiet week in Washington this week – just a few interesting think tank and trade association events – you skip to the bottom to read all about them.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration Wagner Labor Initiative in New York.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday, November 24, 2:00 p.m. – The National Turkey Federation holds a news conference to welcome two Minnesota turkeys to the nation's capital, a day ahead of the "National Thanksgiving Turkey Presentation" for the annual "pardon" of the birds at the White House - a Thanksgiving tradition dating back to 1947 with President Truman.

Wednesday, November 27, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online “Talking Policy” event with Peter Routledge, Superintendent of the Office of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, November 25, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Lessons from the Basel Committee's Assessments of Individual Jurisdictions." Speakers include Stefan Ingves, Chair of the Toronto Centre and Patrick Honohan, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute.

· Tuesday, November 26, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a virtual discussion on "China's Slowing Economy: What China is Doing About It, and What It Means for the Rest of the World."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/23/24 Francis Kelly 11/23/24

Fulcrum Perspectives

The CFPB Orders the Supervision of Google, Paul Atkins Nominated for SEC Chair, the FSOC Meets One Last Time in 2024, and Treasury Gets Ready to Hold the 2024 Outbound Investment Security Conference

December 9 - 13, 2024

What The Trump Tariffs May Mean for Latin America, Why Syria Matters So Much to Russia, China’s Irreversible Demographic Crisis, and Why Javier Milei Has Surprised Almost Everyone

December 6 - 8, 2024

Latin America

Syria and the Greater Middle East

China’s Demographic Crisis

Geo-economics, AI, and Trade Policy

Washington’s Regulatory World Continues to Get Quieter and Quieter; Elon Musk Wants to “Delete” The CFPB

Syria’s Simmering Civil War Explodes Again, France’s Government on Brink of Crisis, OPIC+ Meets to Possibly Approve Production Increases, Key International Chairs Change Hands, And A Big Week of Economic Data Releases

The FLAR Conference 2024 Presentation

Cartegna, Colombia

China’s Economic Spillovers to Emerging Markets, Does the U.S. Really Face an “Axis” of Enemies”? And the Growing Asymmetric Threat to Undersea Communication Cables

Geoeconomics

The Threat of Asymmetric Attacks on Undersea Cables

China

France’s Fragile Coalition Government Faces A No-Confidence Vote, G7 Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy to Discuss the Situation in Ukraine and Israel, Washington Goes Quiet to Celebrate Thanksgiving, and Putin Travels to Kazakhstan

November 24 - December 1, 2024

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Monday, November 25, 2024

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Friday, November 29, 2024

Saturday, November 30, 2024

Sunday, December 1, 2024

SEC Chair Gensler Makes It Official He’s Leaving As Is SEC Commissioner Lizarraga, Washington’s Favorite Parlor Game of Who Gets What Goes Full-Throttle, and Congress Makes Final, Half-Hearted Efforts at Crypto and Cannabis Legislation

The New and Growing Threat of Nuclear Weapons, The Challenges of U.S. – Mexican Trade Relations, and Is Bretton Woods Still Relevant?

November 22 - 24, 2024

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