About that polling bounce for Democrats from the Roe v. Wade Reversal…

We have gotten a lot of client questions about the impact of the US Supreme Court’s recent reversal of Roe v. Wade. Several initial polls were showing Congressional Democrats had gained substantially versus Republican challengers heading toward the November elections. But may have faded already: A new poll out Thursday by the Marquette Law School Poll suggests that the pro-choice voter energy that emerged since the leak in early May from the Supreme Court and subsequent official opinion being handed down in July is fading. Moreover, the survey found that “those favoring Roe’s overturning… are more motivated to vote in November.”

The poll - which you can access here — “finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered” by the decision.

The poll also finds an 18 percentage point advantage for Republicans among voters, effectively erasing gains Democrats had gained toward leveling that difference. Let’s see if this holds up in the next three months before the elections.