Are We Getting to An Attention Deficit Inflection Point with the Ukraine War?

A worrisome data point concerning the world’s ability to stay focused on Russia’s war on Ukraine: Social media engagement across the board - since May 29th - is essentially at its lowest since before the invasion in late February.

Obviously, no one wants to focus on war. As US General William Tecumseh Sherman famously and correctly said, war is hell. He meant that in the word's full, horrific, nightmarish sense. This, of course, is only one indicator. But the risk of the people living freely in democracies around the world becoming fatigued by the war is real - and it is something Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting on.

What Does the New ABC/Ipsos Poll Tell Us About the November Elections?

A newly released ABC/Ipsos poll caught our attention this weekend. While there has been a cascade of brutally bad polls for President Biden and Democrats in general, this poll may suggest there is a slight reconsideration among voters.

The poll clearly shows Republicans are more trusted to handle key issues like the economy, inflation, and crime. Moreover, the pattern shows that the same voters polled are enthusiastic about voting in the midterms this November - a continued negative for Democrats.

But the poll also showed that 1/3 of those polled - particularly independents - do not trust either party to do a particularly good job. Our read of this is Democrats have room to claw back what were thought to be lost voters, and Republicans still have a lot of work to do to win by the margins they and many in their base think they will be in November.

The poll shows - as so many other polls have shown - that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating holds steady across many issues, but he’s touching historic lows. The one bright spot for President Biden is his handling of coronavirus (56%). The negative? 29% percent approve of his handling of inflation, 37% approve of his handling of the overall economy, and 43% approve of his handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those figures will be incredibly hard to turn around between now and November. And if gas prices and food prices begin to spike again, they will only get worse.

The upshot is we now expect a particularly intense three-month sprint to November. There is little time for Congress to do much legislatively between now and then to alleviate inflation/broader economic concerns, and the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (passed by the Senate yesterday and expected to be passed by the House this Friday) will have virtually no impact on actual inflationary pressures. Moreover, voters broadly will not see or feel any significant benefits before the mid-terms. For Democrats, the legislative victory may be something of a tonic to energize Democratic voters who have been dismayed by the lack of success on many hoped-for agenda items - particularly among the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Finally, we would argue polling going forward begins to take a sharper focus and, we believe, will be more telling and indicative than they have been did in recent months. Buckle up, everyone. As we said, it is going to be a very intense three months ahead.

You can access the ABC/Ipsos press release HERE and the toplines/details of the poll HERE.

About that polling bounce for Democrats from the Roe v. Wade Reversal…

We have gotten a lot of client questions about the impact of the US Supreme Court’s recent reversal of Roe v. Wade. Several initial polls were showing Congressional Democrats had gained substantially versus Republican challengers heading toward the November elections. But may have faded already: A new poll out Thursday by the Marquette Law School Poll suggests that the pro-choice voter energy that emerged since the leak in early May from the Supreme Court and subsequent official opinion being handed down in July is fading. Moreover, the survey found that “those favoring Roe’s overturning… are more motivated to vote in November.”

The poll - which you can access here — “finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered” by the decision.

The poll also finds an 18 percentage point advantage for Republicans among voters, effectively erasing gains Democrats had gained toward leveling that difference. Let’s see if this holds up in the next three months before the elections.