UBS’s ElectionWatch 2024

The Race, the World, and Investments April 4, 2024

I was delighted to be interviewed last week by UBS’s Chief Investment Officer Americas, Solita Marcelli, about the upcoming US elections. It was a fantastic conversation, and it was a true honor to be joined by former National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers and David Rubenstein, the Co-Founder of the Carlyle Group.

Markets are struggling to price in the impact of the November US elections for a number of reasons. First, the elections are still seven and a half months away. Polls are unfocused and suffering from a population that feels over-polled and weary of the constant campaign cycle in the US.

Additionally, while our house view is it is between a toss-up and leaning Democratic win for control of the House and a likely win for Republicans to control the Senate, we still have primaries to be held and need a clearer sense of candidates and campaign funding. All this will increasingly become clearer in the next two months.

Geopolitical issues often have little impact on presidential elections, but this year may be an anomaly. Progressive Democrats are deeply unhappy with President Biden’s policy toward Israel and the Gaza War. Increasingly, young Democrats seem to be drifting toward the Robert Kennedy, Jr. presidential campaign, which may upend all current thinking about who wins in November.

Add to this a general unhappiness among the electorate over the state of the economy, especially over sticky inflation (note the uptick in inflation numbers today - April 10 - unexpectedly rising 3.5 percent), which may drive voters to think of other candidates and even other political parties.

You can watch the whole interview HERE. I hope you find it informative and useful.

Talking Geopolitics, Elections, and the Growing Intense Demands on the Electrical Grid Sector

The Corn Belt Power Cooperative Annual Meeting

I was thrilled and honored to speak at the Corn Belt Annual Meeting in Fort Dodge, Iowa, yesterday (April 3, 2024). It was a trip to God’s country - the beauty and grandeur of the Hawkeye State all around me as I was given the privilege to speak to leaders of the energy sector of Iowa on what is going on in the world today and how it directly is impacting them - U.S. Election outlook, Congressional outlook, the future of China, India, Russia, and the rest of the world.

There is something cathartic about engaging and talking with hard-working, clear-eyed folks like those in attendance at the Corn Belt Power meeting. The questions are deeply thoughtful, penetrating, and challenging. Add to this that the attendees are just wonderful folks—Iowa Nice, as they say! All around, it was a superb event!

You can see my presentation below.

A Superb Panel in Palm Beach

Pitcairn’s Outstanding Lunch Discussion Global Events and Investing

I was recently delighted to join my friends at Pitcairn for a client luncheon and superb panel discussion In Palm Beach, Florida.

Our discussion was wide-ranging, wonderfully challenging, and thought-provoking. Held in the elegant Brazil Court Hotel, I was thrilled to sit with Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn, Managing Director for Wealth Strategy Jen Proper, and Chief Investment Officer Nathan Sonneberg (who also masterfully moderated).

The upcoming battle over revising the 2017 tax bill is clearly going to be challenging for investors and corporations as Congress and the next Presidential Administration are going to be forced to grapple with the exploding national debt. All this comes in the face of intense pressure to bolster U.S. military spending and sustain and grow industrial policy, luring technology, pharma, and other critical industries back to the U.S. Massive contradictory pressures with enormous market implications.

Thank you, Jay and the entire Pitcairn team for having me!

Left to right: Pitcairn CIO Nathan Sonneberg, Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn, Head of Wealth Strategy Jen Proper, and yours truly.

Our super-star host, Managing Director and Head of Pitcairn’s Florida Office, Jay Goetschius, who masterfully put this great event together.