Reading Around the World November 26, 2021
CHINA:
• The Straits Times “China Finds 12 million Children that it Didn’t Know Existed” China undercounted the number of children born in 2000 to 2010 by at least 11.6 million - equivalent to Belgium's current population - partly because of its stringent one-child policy. The difference could be the result of some parents failing to register births to avoid punishment if they breached the one-child policy.
• Rhodium Group “China Pathfinder: Q3 2021 Update”
In Q3 2021, Chinese authorities were active in regulating/cracking down on four of six economic clusters that make up the China Pathfinder analytical framework—financial system development, competition policy, innovation, and portfolio investment openness— with fewer developments in the trade and direct investment openness clusters. In assessing whether China’s economic system moved toward or away from market economy norms in this quarter, our analysis shows a mixed-to-negative trendline.
JAPAN:
• War on the Rocks “Japan’s Revolution on Taiwan Affairs”
The most important development for Taiwan’s security might be unfolding right now in Japan. Tokyo’s strategy toward Taiwan is dramatically shifting. Once reluctant to join all but the most anodyne of pro-Taiwan statements with the United States, Japanese officials now increasingly state their desire to “protect Taiwan as a democratic country.” But what does that actually mean? How far will Japan go to stand by this statement?
EU & UK:
• Fortune.com “Not Just Meatballs and DIY Furniture: Ikea Could be Your Next Renewable Energy Supplier”
The world's largest furniture retailer has for decades been a temple of flat-pack bookcases, cook wear, linens, and Swedish meatballs. But in the future, the home goods supplier is planning to take home basics to another level—as a renewable energy supplier.
• The Economist “Last of the Commies”
Even though the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, local politics, force of habit and canny strategy help Europe’s communists cling on.
• Australian Strategic Policy Institute “Why Won’t Eastern Europeans Get Vaccinated?”
In recent weeks, as Europe has again become the global epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, the surge in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths has highlighted the continued vaccine hesitancy of one group of Europeans in particular: those in the formerly communist east. While 75.6% of European Union citizens are fully vaccinated, the share in Bulgaria is 26.2% and it’s 39.6% in Romania. In countries outside the EU, the numbers are even bleaker. Only 20.2% of Ukraine’s population, and 36.3% of Russia’s, are fully vaccinated.
RUSSIA/BELARUS/UKRAINE:
• Der Spiegel “New Details Shed Light on Lukashenko’s Human Trafficking Network” Insiders reveal fresh details about Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's inhumane smuggling system, comprised of a network of front companies that spreads to Syria, Turkey and Iraq, secret money transfers and the use of soldiers as traffickers.
LATIN AMERICA:
• War on the Rocks “I have Other Data”: the Guardia Nacional and the Entrenchment of Mexico’s Militarization”
On July 5, 2021, journalist Jorge Ramos laid a scathing critique at the feet of Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. In a morning press conference, Ramos accused the president of misleading the public by claiming Mexico was “a country at peace.” Ramos pointed to data collected throughout AMLO’s presidential term: The homicide rate in 2020 was 29 deaths per 100,000 citizens, a death-per-capita rate higher than at any point in Mexico’s recent history —despite AMLO’s declaration that the war on drugs was over, his pledge to remove the military from the streets, and his campaign promise to end violence through a series of social and economic reforms he marketed as “abrazos no balazos” (hugs, not bullets). In the wake of continually rising violence, Ramos bluntly said the data reflected that AMLO had not made good on his campaign rhetoric. Then he asked the president if abrazos no balazos was a proven failure. AMLO somewhat dismissively replied, “I have other data.”
• Americas Quarterly “Kast and Boric: Explaining the Chilean Paradox”
Chile’s presidential runoff will now be a race to the middle, as most voters want change but not radicalism. Can either candidate deliver?
• Center for Strategic and International Studies “The Development of the ICDT Landscape. In Mexico: Cybersecurity and Opportunities for Investment”
Mexico’s information and communications technology (ICT) sector has witnessed increased competition and investment since 2013’s landmark regulatory reform, which created the Federal Institute of Telecommunications (IFT). Despite the failure of the presidency to push forward with the regulatory opportunities, the sector continues to be a promising one.
UNITED STATES/CANADA:
• National Bureau of Economic Research “Pandemic Schooling Mode and Student Test Scores: Evidence from the US States”
There have been a lot of questions of the impact of COVID on students and learning. The NBER has just released a study looking at Spring 2021 finding the pass rates declined compared to prior years and that these declines were larger in districts with less in-person instruction. Passing rates in math declined by 14.2 percentage points on average; we estimate this decline was 10.1 percentage points smaller for districts fully in-person.
• Interesting Engineering Magazine “Can the US Upgrade Its Infrastructure to Defend Against Drone Attacks?”
In a first-of-its-kind attack on U.S. soil, a drone was used to attack an electrical substation in Pennsylvania in 2020. While the location of the attack wasn't revealed, a new document from the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and the National Counterterrorism Center are in circulation with U.S. law enforcement agencies, according to a recent New Scientist report. And it turns out we may need an infrastructural overhaul to defend against drone attacks.
• Fulcrum Macro’s Study of US Politics Chart of the Week:
GREATER MIDDLE EAST:
• Brookings Institution “Is Hezbollah Overplaying its Hand Inside Lebanon?”
Lebanese Hezbollah’s role as an Iranian proxy and its provision of significant assistance to its allies in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq has been an area of justified focus for policymakers in many capitals but the organization’s evolving role inside Lebanon merits equal attention. While it is customary to characterize Hezbollah as a “state within a state,” it is more accurate now to define it as a “state within a non-state,” - a devolution of the country largely due to their policies and actions - in view of the sheer inability of the Lebanese government to deliver even the most basic services to a desperate population plunged into its worst economic crisis in over a century.
• Human Rights Watch “Afghanistan: Taliban Crackdown on Media Worsens”
Since the US military withdrawal, Taliban crackdowns on women, media, education, etc. have intensified. This report shares research on how tough the crackdown has become on the local media. One example: One Afghan broadcaster, after a news report, was told by his provisional governor if he ever talked about the subject again “He would find himself hanging from the public square.”
AFRICA:
• Foreign Policy Research Institute “The Time is Right for a US Pivot to Africa”
The author argues President Biden cannot make the previous administration’s mistake of viewing Africa as a battlefield for competition with China and Russia. Instead of playing catch-up to China, Russia, and others, the US should surpass the initiative they have taken in Africa, spot new opportunities, and help make the difference between a green and prosperous future as greater Sub-Saharan Africa is showing tremendous opportunity.
Energy/Climate Change
• Financial Times “Nuclear fusion: Why the race to harness the power of the sun just sped up”
Advances in technology and funding have sparked optimism in an area that has promised much but delivered little in six decades.
