Reading Around the World November 19, 2021

Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world.  We hope you find these informative and useful.  And please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.

 Global Issues:

·       Bank for International Settlements “Bottlenecks: Causes and Macroeconomic Implications”

The BIS takes a deep dive into the ongoing supply chain crisis and the longer-terms economic implications.  

·       The New Yorker “How the Week Organizes and Tyrannizes Our Lives”

The Harvard professor and noted author Jill Lepore writes about how our lives – from work schedules to TV seasons to baseball games – has been built around and dominated by the seven-day cycle.  She asks the pointed question: Will we ever get rid of it?

·       International Monetary Fund “Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach”

The IMF produced a social unrest risk index for 125 countries from 1996 to 2020. Here, the IMF uses a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators to correctly forecast unrest in the following year approximately 2/3 of the time.

·       Bloomberg “What’s Wrong with ESG Investing as Explained Through the Medium of Ohio”

No one can quite agree on where companies stand when it comes to the trifecta of ESG concerns — environmental, social and governance — that has morphed into a responsible investing craze worth trillions of dollars. In fact, a quick tour through Ohio — once a major Midwestern manufacturing capital before falling into ‘Rust Belt’ status in the 1980s  as factories shifted abroad — can give us a peek into the failure of socially-responsible capitalism to improve society.

China:

·       Fortune Magazine “China Launched the New Beijing Stock Exchange to Fund Small Businesses – But it May also ‘Cannibalize’ Existing Bourses”

China’s new Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) officially opened for business on November 15th in a bid to shore up support for homegrown small to medium-size enterprises (SMEs) during a time of slowing economic growth. But will it have a opposite effect by moving existing listings from other Chinese exchanges?

·       Foreign Affairs “China’s Search for Allies: Is Beijing Building a Rival Alliance System?”

China has shied away from formal alliances, based on its supposedly distinct view of international relations and a pragmatic desire to avoid the risks of entanglement. But there are signs that Beijing’s resistance is starting to erode as in recent years it upgraded its strategic partnerships, expanded military exchanges, and joint exercises with various countries – much to the alarm of the US and other countries.

United States:

·       War on the Rocks Podcast “Richard Haas is Unhappy”

The podcast looks at and discusses Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass’ critique of “Washington’s new flawed foreign policy consensus” and laments the bipartisan turn away from the mostly internationalist spirit that has informed U.S. foreign policy since the end of the World War II.  Is he right? Does such a consensus exist? And does that explain why successive U.S. presidents seem so skeptical of internationalism?

·       Pew Research Center “Where Americans Find Meaning in Life has Changed Over the Past Four Years”

Many things have changed in the United States in the past four years, from a new administration in Washington to the COVID-19 pandemic. Pew has conducted surveys which have revealed six facts about where Americans find meaning in life and how those responses have shifted over the past four years. The analysis also examines how attitudes in the U.S. compare with those in 16 other advanced economies surveyed by the Center in 2021

·       The Heritage Foundation “US Military Strength: An Annual Assessment”

Having been engaged in warfare for more than 20 years, many wonder what the strength of the US military is now.  The Heritage Foundation provides an expansive overview of strengths and weaknesses, broken down by regions globally.

·       Morning Consult “The Private Sector and Federal Government have Begun the Push for 6G Broadband. Much of the Public is Still Behind on 5G”

In a new poll, at least 7 in 10 adults who don’t have a 5G phone said they would not be willing to pay more for one with those capabilities.  

Latin America:

·       Americas Quarterly “Was the COP26 A Good Deal for Brazil?”

Carbon credits for fighting deforestation were left in flux at Glasgow — but they could be key for the climate and Brazil’s economy. And markets are looking closely at how this will evolve.

·       Center for Strategic & International Studies “Panama’s Maritime Business and the Evolving Strategic Landscape”

Panama’s maritime business is being transformed by a number of factors. These include the growing U.S.-China competition in the region, U.S. policies to contain immigration from the Northern Triangle, technology trends, evolution of regional infrastructure, and the restructuring of the maritime shipping industry itself. Demand for the canal and associated ports will likely remain strong, but the composition of that traffic, the routes, the operators, and the role of complementary and competing facilities elsewhere in the region will likely transform dramatically in the coming generation.

EU & Russia:

·       Foreign Policy “Even Sweden Doesn’t Want Migrants Anymore”

Sweden’s generous response to the 2015 refugee crisis may have permanently dented its moral worldview.

·       Rand Corporation “Analysis of Russian Irregular Threats”

Russian President Putin has been able to exert greater influence globally by deploying a variety of irregular methods – indeed, threats – ranging from information warfare, political subversion, and the use of violent proxies.  Rand presents an in-depth study of what exactly those threats are and how they are used.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations “Russia’s Military Movements: What They Could Mean for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO”

Russia is mobilizing its forces, but much more covertly than in the past. Moscow’s belief that the EU and US will not step in to protect Ukraine could lead it to take direct military action.

Africa:

·       Institute for Security Studies “Climate, Energy, and the African Dilemma”

Fossil fuels and mineral wealth are pivotal to Africa’s geopolitical positioning and strategic importance.  With the recent COP26 commitments, how will Africa square a possible large circle?

Middle East:

·       The New Statesman “How a Hezbollah-backed Game Show Host Cost Lebanon its Rich Gulf Allies”

George Kordahi’s remarks enraged the Saudis, and ordinary Lebanese are paying the price.

 ·       Brookings Institution “Is Hezbollah Overplaying Its Hand Inside Lebanon?”

Lebanese Hezbollah’s role as an Iranian proxy and its provision of significant assistance to its allies in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq has been a focus for policymakers in many capitals. But the organization’s evolving role inside Lebanon merits equal attention – especially with their sheer inability to help deliver even the most basic services to a desperate population plunged into its worst economic crisis in over a century.

India:

·       Foreign Policy “India Needs a Big Nuclear Bet to Keep COP26 Promises”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi drew attention at COP26 when he said India plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. But if Modi wants to prove that he’s actually committed to the target, there’s only one way to pull it off: nuclear power.

Japan:

·       Council on Foreign Relations Why It Matters Podcast “Japan’s Population Problem”

The U.S.-Japan alliance is at the heart of U.S. security in Asia, and some consider Japan to be the United States’ most important ally. But Japan’s population is aging, and its birth rate is on the decline, a problematic trend given that population size has historically equated to power. Now, the future of the countries’ economic, military, and governance partnerships could be at stake.