Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 3/2/25 Francis Kelly 3/2/25

The Global Week Ahead

Russia’s War on Ukraine At An Inflection Point, The EU Meets to Discuss Its Security Future, China’s People’s Political Consultative Conference and National People’s Congress Meet, Trump’s Canada/Mexico/China Tariffs Go Into Effect, and The ECB Sets Interest Rates

March 2 - 9, 2025

It is not often you can write that the coming week is likely to be truly historic, a true crossroads of where the world will go. This appears to be one of those weeks. Following the bizarre blow-up in the White House Oval Office between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky, the future of Ukraine’s freedom lies in the balance and Europe looks to be poised to begin pursuing their own security arrangements out of fear of being abandoned by the US after 80 years of mutual security arrangements.

Today (Sunday) saw British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosting a summit in London where he called for a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine. Both the UK and France committed to sending peacekeeping troops to help in the efforts to reach a cease-fire. Later this week, There will be a Special European Council meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and what the EU should do as President Trump continues to attack President Zelensky and suggest the US will stop militarily supporting Ukraine. As European Council President António Costa said, “We are living in a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.”

At the time of this writing, President Zelensky has told reporters he is still ready to sign a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal despite the shouting match with President Trump and being kicked out of the White House. But what is not clear is how – or even if – Trump and Zelensky can patch up their relationship to even sign the deal.

Meanwhile, China’s National People’s Congress and People’s Consultative Conference come together to meet in Beijing this week. The meetings will offer important insights into where Beijing will steer the economy and how it might deal with President Trump and forthcoming tariffs. The meetings will not be easy for Chinese leaders to successfully manage market expectations of economic policy.

The new US tariffs on China – now set at 20% by President Trump – are scheduled to go into effect this coming Saturday. Canada and Mexico are also set to get hit with 25% tariffs by President Trump. We would note that Trump indicated over the weekend he has ordered a new probe of Canada’s lumber exports to the US, suggesting he will place new tariffs on that sector, too. Up to 30 percent of softwood lumber used to build houses in the US comes from Canada. And a large percentage of gypsum (used for drywall) used in US housing comes from Canada.

We are likely to learn more about President Trump’s tariff agenda when he addresses a Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday. The Annual State of the Union speech will offer Trump an opportunity to also lay out more details of his domestic and foreign policy agenda for the year. He is expected to make a strong push for his signature tax and budget Reconciliation package currently being put together in the House of Representatives.

Also this week, Canada’s Liberal Party will choose a new leader on Sunday to replace incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Turning to the global economic radar screen, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank meeting to decide interest rates Thursday. Markets are expecting another likely 25 basis points.

Markets are looking at major data releases this week out of Asia. China releases official PMIs for February as well as trade data while the People’s Congress is being held.

Bringing it back to the US, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday as well as the ISM indices. Fed Chair Jay Powell will also give a speech on the state of the economy on Friday after jobs data is released that morning.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, March 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 97th Academy Awards ceremony is held, where they give a bunch of awards for movies most of us have never seen or heard of.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Tajikistan holds parliamentary and local elections.

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a deadline to get his proposed budget passed by the lower house of parliament.

· Today is Peasant Day in Myanmar, held to celebrate the hard work of peasants.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hosting an informal meeting with EU leaders on Ukraine and security in Europe. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will also attend.

· Austria's liberal Neos party members will vote to approve a coalition agreement with the center-right Austrian People's Party and the center-left Social Democratic Party.

· Hamburg, Germany holds state elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 3, 2025

Global

· The UN hosts the Organizational Session for the 2026 UN Water Conference at the United Nations Headquarters in New York.

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency meet in Vienna, Austria through March 7.

· The UN hosts the 3rd meeting of countries party to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

· Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, Permanent Representative of Denmark and President of the Security Council for the month of March, will hold a press briefing on the agenda for the month.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 2025 Pacific Operational Science & Technology (POST) five-day conference begins in Honolulu, Hawaii, hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association and the US Indo-Pacific Command.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated conversation before the National Association for Business Economics 41st Annual Economic Policy Conference.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment & New Orders & Prices (February)/ Construction Spending (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· An International Monetary Fund delegation will arrive in Pakistan for the first review of Pakistan's bailout fund.

· In the Philippines, Combined Arms Training Exercise “Catex” takes place in Luzon, Mindanao, and Visayas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Terms of Trade Q4/ Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4

· Australia S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI (February)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February)/ Company Gross Profits Q4/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (February)/ Business Inventories Q4/ Commodity Prices (February)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (February)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (January)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the European Automotive Industry in Brussels.

· He EU Central Asia Ministerial Meeting takes place in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

· MWC Barcelona, the biggest annual event for the telecommunications industry, kicks off on Monday. The four-day event will welcome some of the biggest names in mobile networks and devices, satellites and more, including Huawei and Xiaomi of China, Japan's SoftBank and SK Hynix of South Korea.

· NATO holds Dynamic Mantra 25 joint maritime exercises in the Mediterranean Sea through March 14.

· Today is Bulgarian Independence Day, celebrating when the country became an independent state in 1878 after more than 500 years of Ottoman control.

· Paris Fashion Week begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank (ECB) Board Member Claudia Buch, who chairs the ECB Supervisory Board, gives a keynote speech at the18th Finanzplatztag event organized by Börsenzeitung in Frankfurt, Germany. She is expected to talk about banking union, its challenges and achievements.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (February)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)/ PPI (February)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (January)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ New Car Sales (February)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024/ Government Budget 2024/ New Car Registrations (February)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (January)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ M4 Money Supply (January)/ Net Lending to Individuals (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Flash (February)

· Ukraine Current Account (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (January)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (February)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M2 Money Supply (January)

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Global

· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will be in Cairo, Egypt to join the Extraordinary Summit of the League of Arab States to discuss the reconstruction of Gaza. Leaders from across the Arab world will come together in this emergency meeting to discuss what can be done to rebuild Gaza and on what potential timeframe.

· It is “Fat Tuesday” – otherwise known as Shrove Tuesday and in New Orleans, Louisiana, Mardi Gras – in advance of Lent.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress (the State of the Union Address).

· US tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect, putting 25% tariffs on goods for both countries. Additionally, the US is putting a 20% increase in tariffs on China’s goods.

· The U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments in a Mexican lawsuit against U.S. gun manufacturers.

· Mayoral elections are held in the US cities of Aspen, Colorado, Chattanooga, Tennessee, and Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion at a Bloomberg Invest event organized by Bloomberg LP in New York.

· USA Redbook (March/01)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/28)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (February)

· Colombia Exports (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country's top political advisory body, and the legislative National People's Congress (NPC) both hold their annual meetings in Beijing. Premier Li Qiang is expected to announce economic growth and budget targets, as markets watch for signs of how Beijing will move to boost domestic demand and navigate U.S. trade tensions.

· The Philippines will host the Asia-Pacific Trade Facilitation Conference 2025 in Manila through March 5.

· South Korea launches its first alternative stock trading system with longer trading hours and lower fees, a move aimed at luring more investors. Nextrade will offer trading services from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., challenging the Korea Exchange which has been the country's sole bourse since 1956.

· Singapore hosts the inaugural Business Aviation Asia Forum & Expo, with more than 50 participating companies including Boeing Business Jets, Dassault Aviation and Honeywell. The three-day event will alternate with the biennial Singapore Airshow, one of Asia's largest industry expos.

· Micronesia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (January)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/04)

· South Korea Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (January)/ Jobs/applications ratio (January)/ Capital Spending Q4/ Consumer Confidence (February)

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes/ Retail Sales (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q4

· Philippines PPI (January)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications ministers in Brussels through March 5. There is no formal agenda.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in the Strategic Dialogue on Steel in Brussels.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Myanmar's military leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

· France Budget Balance (January)/ New Car Registrations (February)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q4

· Spain Unemployment Change (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (January)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (January)

· Ireland Construction Output Q4

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (February)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q4

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Global

· Today is Ash Wednesday, the start of the Lenten season, six weeks before Easter is celebrated in the Western rite of Christianity.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich in Washington, D.C. to discuss Gaza and other regional issues.

· The Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense begins in Ottawa, Canada and runs through March 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil PPI (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (December)

· US Federal Reserve Beige Book/MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/28)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/28)/ ADP Employment Change (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ ISM Services PMI (February)/ Factory Orders (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Services Employment/ Services New Orders/ Services Prices (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/28)/ Total Vehicle Sales (February)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q4/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (February)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (February)

· Colombia PPI (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN-Cambodian Business Summit begins in Phnom Penh.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech at an IMF event entitled “Asia and the IMF: Resilience through Cooperation” in Tokyo.

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida gives a speech to local leaders in Shizuoka, Japan.

· Australia RBA Hauser Speech/ Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (February)/ S&P Global Australia Composite & Services PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate/ Capital Expenditure/ Chain Price Index/ Final Consumption Q4/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)

· Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (February)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (February)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February/21)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Kazakhstan Freedom Holding Corp. Services PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Brussels. They will discuss the current entry/exit system, the state of the Schengen Agreement, migration issues, and internal security issues.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with World Bank President Ajay Banga in Brussels.

· Today is the 75th Anniversary of Josef Stalin’s death. You might want to watch the 2018 movie “The Death of Stalin” to celebrate the death of this horrific tyrant. It is both quite dark comedy and, amazingly, nearly 100 percent factually accurate about the bizarre internal social and political struggle among members of the Soviet Politburo that emerged following Stalin’s death.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council begins a two-day monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Chief Economist Huw Pill, Alan Taylor, and Megan Greene will testify before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee on the February Monetary Report.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ Corporate Profits (December)/ Real Wage Growth (December)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (February)

· France Industrial Production (January)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (January)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ PPI (January)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Serbia PPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (February)

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (February)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (February)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Jordan Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (February)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (February)/ Business Confidence Q1

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (February)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (February)

Thursday, March 6, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent speaks at the Economic Club of New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives an economic outlook at the Wall Street Journal CFO Network Summit, New York, New York.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in conversation on the economic outlook with some focus on the Birmingham, Alabama region.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February)/ Industrial Production (January)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/01)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/06)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (February)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be a Special European Council meeting in Brussels. This emergency summit has been called to discuss next steps for Ukraine and Europe’s security. As European Council President Antonio Costa said, “We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank rate decision is announced, and a press conference is to be held.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at the Women's Forum event "Equality – Really?! (Gerechtigkeit – Echt jetzt?!)" organized by Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, Austria.

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (February)

· Romania Retail Sales (January)

· Hungary Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate/

· France HCOB Construction PMI (February)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (February)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/28)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Vehicle Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ghana celebrates Independence Day, when the country gained independence from Great Britain in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q4

Friday, March 7, 2025

Global

· The first meeting of the BRICS Information & Communications Technologies Working Group under the chairmanship of Brazil (who is chairing the BRICS in 2025) will be held in Sao Paulo, Brazil. They are expected to discuss connectivity issues, space and environmental sustainability, and the digital ecosystem. Also, the 3rd meeting of the BRICS Agriculture Working Group is being held in Sao Paulo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the Economic Outlook at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a discussion entitled “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-COVID” at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled” The Rebalancing of Labor Markets Across the World” at the Bank of Portugal’s Conference on Monetary Policy Transmission and the Labor Market, Lisbon, Portugal. She gives a second speech later in the day at the Conference.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in panel discussion of the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Report, “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-Covid" organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

· Chile Inflation Rate (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Brazil Bank Lending (January)/ Car Production (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (February)/ Auto Exports (February)/ Auto Production (February)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Wages (February)/ Capacity Utilization Q4

· USA Unemployment Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Earnings (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Government & Manufacturing Payrolls (February)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (January)/ Used Car Prices (February)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (February)

· Argentina Industrial Production (January)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (February)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan and the U.K.'s economy ministers are scheduled to meet in Tokyo for what's been dubbed a first-of-its-kind "two-plus-two" dialogue -- typically a regular meeting of foreign and trade ministers. The pair are likely to commit to strengthening economic ties in the wake of growing uncertainty over Washington's trade policies.

· Vietnam places temporary anti-dumping levies against Chinese steel products.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (January)

· Philippines Industrial Production (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January & February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/28)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be a meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Brussels. The agenda items include a policy debate on “insolvency, the rule of law as a pillar of democracy, and the fight against impunity, and fundamental rights including on the application of the EU Charter on Fundamental Rights.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcome address at the ECB International Women's Day 2025 conference "Closing the Financial Literacy Gap" in Frankfurt, Germany. Later, she participates in a conversation with Claudia Buch, Klaas Knot, Annamaria Lusardi, Joachim Nagel, and Fabio Panetta at ECB International Women's Day 2025 conference "Closing the Financial Literacy Gap" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will give a keynote lecture at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Research Conference entitled “holding anchor in turbulent waters”

· Germany Factory Orders (January)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (February)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Spain Industrial Production (January)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (January)

· Euro Area Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Greece GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Ireland Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GNP Q4/ Industrial Production (January)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Nigeria Balance of Trade (October)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Balance of Trade (December)

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil celebrates the last day of the Rio Carnival.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Elections are held in Western Australia for local legislative assembly and legislative council seats.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada’s Liberal Party selects a new leader.

· Honduras holds primary elections.

· Daylight Savings Time begins in the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/28/25 Francis Kelly 2/28/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Regulatory Confirmation Process Begins, the End of OCC/FDIC Merger Talk, Barr’s Regulatory Swan Song Speech DOGE Continues Its Review As Federal Workers Have to Respond to Musk Email

February 24 - 28, 2025

The new class of federal regulatory nominees begins the confirmation process this week as Jonathan McKernan, the nominee to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and Bill Pulte, the nominee to run the Federal Housing Finance Agency, stand before the Senate Banking Committee. It is not clear yet when SEC Chair nominee Paul Atkins, CFTC Chair nominee Brian Quintenz, or Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) nominee Jonathan Gould will get his confirmation hearing, but rumor is that they will take place in the coming three weeks.

Also, on Capitol Hill this week, there are several hearings of note happening. The House Financial Services Committee will be holding two hearings, one entitled “The Future of American Capital: Strengthening Public and Private Markets by Increasing Investor Access and Facilitating Capital Formation.” The second hearing will take a broad review of finance and China.

Among regulators, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will be giving his final speech as Vice Chair. He will be at the Yale School of Management and speaking on financial stability.

Meanwhile, after several months of speculation about a possible effort to merge the OCC and the FDIC was put to rest this past week. The OCC this past week denied plans to put the two agencies together (something the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 had urged). The response was issued after reports of the OCC planning to receive transferred or fired FDIC workers coming over the agency.

Meanwhile, the Elon Musk DOGE effort continues apace with regulators as well as larger departments (particularly the Department of Defense) coming under intensified scrutiny (there were reports late last week that Defense could see tens of thousands of civilian employees let go). While all this is going on, an email was sent to all federal employees from DOGE demanding federal workers describe by Monday what they do and justify their work. A number of federal agencies, in response to the email, told workers to ignore the email, leaving many workers confused as to what would happen if they indeed ignored the email.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, February 26, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Exploring Bipartisan Legislative Frameworks for Digital Assets.”

· Wednesday, February 26, 10:30 a.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Perspectives from the Field: Farmer and Rancher Views on the Agricultural Economy, Part 2”

· Thursday, February 27, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold confirmation hearings for Stephen Miran to be Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, Jeffrey Kessler to be Undersecretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, and Jonathan McKernan to be Director of the Bureau of Consumer and Financial Protection.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, February 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Examining Policies to Counter China.” You can read the background Committee memo to members HERE. The committee will also consider seventeen separate bills focused on issues ranging from money laundering to SEC regulations for te World Bank to the African Development Fund.

· Tuesday, February 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Trade Subcommittee of the House Ways & Means Committee will hold a hearing entitled “American Trade Enforcement Priorities”

· Wednesday, February 26, 10:00 a.m. – The Capital Markets Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Future of American Capital: Strengthening Public and Private Markets by Increasing Investor Access and Facilitating Capital Formation.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, February 25, 11:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Financial Stability followed by Q&A at the Yale School of Management in New Haven, Connecticut.

· Thursday, February 27, 11:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on community banking at the Fort Hays State University Robbins Banking Institute Lecture Series, Hays, Kansas.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, February 24, 8:45 a.m. – The Florida Bar’s Federal Securities Institute and M&A Conference will be held in Tampa, Florida. Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda will speak.

· Tuesday, February 25, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC’s Small Business and Capital Formation Advisory Committee will meet. They will hear from two speakers – Ashok Kamal, Executive Director, NuFund Venture Group, and Sara Zulkosky, Co-Founder & Managing Partner, Recast Capital, on “Exploring Ways to Support and Facilitate Capital Formation for Emerging Fund Managers.” The Committee will hold a second session entitled “Understanding the Challenges Faced by Small Public Companies Not Listed on a National Securities Exchange.”

· Wednesday, February 26, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting to consider the “Final Rule Extending Compliance Dates and Order Granting Temporary Exemptive Relief for Standards for Covered Clearing Agencies for U.S. Treasury Securities and Application of the Broker-Dealer Customer Protection Rule with Respect to U.S. Treasury Securities.”

· Thursday, February 27, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, February 25, 11:40 a.m. (Germany) – CFTC Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat at the Sixth Joint Conference on CCP Risk Management 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Wednesday, February 26, 10:20 a.m. (Germany) – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will be featured on a fireside chat titled, “Transatlantic Trends – The U.S. Election and Its Impact on Europe” at the Derivatives Forum Frankfurt 2025.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, February 27, 10:00 a.m. – The National Credit Union Administration will hold a board meeting. The agenda includes Board Briefing, Share Insurance Fund Quarterly Report and the NCUA Board Vice Chairman Designation.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday – Wednesday, February 24 -26 -- The American Bankers Association holds its Wealth Management and Trust Conference in San Diego, California.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, February 25, 7:15 a.m. – The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. holds a discussion with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on "the current state of the economy, markets, the health of the U.S. consumer, and the global economic outlook for 2025."

· Tuesday & Wednesday, February 25 & 16 – The American Conference Institute, the Canadian Institute, and C5 hold a forum on "Global Export Controls” in Arlington, Virginia. John Sonderman, director of the Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security's Office of Export Enforcement and Paul Ahern, chief counselor for enforcement at the Treasury Department's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, will be keynote speakers.

· Wednesday, February 26, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics will hold a virtual event entitled “The Trump Administration’s policies and global financial risk.”

Thursday, February 27, 11:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Institute is holding a hybrid event entitled “Searching for Solutions: Property Insurance and Housing Affordability.”

Francis Kelly 2/23/25 Francis Kelly 2/23/25

The Global Week Ahead

Ukraine Peace Efforts Intensify as the 3rd Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion is Marked, Germany Holds Elections, and G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meet in South Africa

February 23 - March 1, 2025

Monday marks the 3rd anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In the shadow of this sad milestone, President Trump is continuing his rapid move to force peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which are spurring multiple events this coming week.

First, French President Emmanual Macron will travel to Washington on Monday for meetings with President Trump on the situation. Later in the week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to Washington for talks, too. The talks will include talks regarding Trump's threat to place tough new tariffs on Europe. We would note that Polish President Andrzej Duda met with President Trump yesterday (Saturday) in Washington to discuss Ukraine and US-Polish security arrangements and cooperation.

In Europe, EU foreign affairs ministers will meet to discuss the current state of peace efforts and the situations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Ada will attend those meetings.

Meanwhile, results from Germany's elections are coming in today (Sunday). As expected, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) coalition led by Fredrik Mertz looks to have won the elections with 29 percent of the vote. But in a historic first, the fa-right AfD Party came in second with more than 20 percent of the vote. The CDU/CSU will likely have to form a coalition with either the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Green Party, or libertarian Free Democratic Party (if they reach the threshold of 5 percent required to be seated in the parliament – they are currently coming at 4.7 percent in exit polls) to form a ruling government. Merz has said he will refuse to work with the AfD.

In Washington, Monday is the deadline for all federal workers to comply with a demand from Elon Musk's DOGE explaining their work or risk being fired. A number of federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) under new Director Kash Patel, have ordered employees to ignore the demand, leaving many federal workers confused as to what to do.

In Congress, the House will continue its efforts to hammer out a massive tax and budget Reconciliation bill in the face of a looming March 14 government shutdown. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is hoping to hold a vote on the bill by the end of the week, but likely disagreements among various factions in the Republican Caucus are likely to derail the effort, particularly around efforts aimed at cutting Medicaid. The Senate passed a $340 budget reconciliation bill (leaving tax for another Reconciliation later this year) on Friday. President Trump has said he prefers the House strategy of rolling the giant budget and tax bill into "One big, beautiful bill," but Senate Republicans have still moved on their two-bill track as a backup in case the House fails.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets are looking to Friday's US PCE release—which the Federal Reserve uses as its favored inflation gauge—which comes after the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday and the durable goods report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan's CPI data is released on Friday following the PPI print on Tuesday. In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes from their January meeting are out on Thursday. Germany, France, and Italy publish inflation prints on Friday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

· Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country. Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor. However, it is unclear what sort of coalition he will form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

· Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 24, 2025

Global

· The UN’s 58th session of the Human Rights Council begins in Geneva, Switzerland. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will open the session with a keynote speech.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile PPI (January)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (February)

· Canada BoC Gravelle Speech

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)

· Paraguay PPI (January)

· Peru Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· British Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will travel to Delhi, India, for the 15th round of U.K.-India free trade negotiations.

· Today is the birthday of the Japanese Emperor Naruhito. Financial markets are closed.

· Indonesia launches Danantara, a sovereign wealth fund with more than $900 billion in assets under management. Projects to be financed by the new fund are seen as crucial to attracting foreign investment and reaching Jakarta's goal of 8% annual economic growth.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Masato Kanda becomes Asian Development Bank president, succeeding Masatsugu Asakawa, who stepped down yesterday. Kanda will complete the unexpired term of Asakawa, which ends on November 23, next year.

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q4/ Credit Card Spending (January)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (January)

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the current state of play in Ukraine, the situation in Syria and Lebanon, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar will attend the meetings.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the agricultural markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

· EU President Ursuala von der Leyen will travel to Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky.

· The EU-Israel Association Council will meet in Brussels. The meeting will engage in political dialogue, focusing on the conflict in Gaza and Israeli-Palestinian relations, regional issues, including Iran, and global issues.

· A delegation of the EU Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee will travel to Washington DC to meet with US Congress, US government entities, academics and industries representatives, as part of efforts to strengthen transatlantic cooperation in key policy areas.

· A delegation from the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will go to London to discuss EU-UK relations. They will cover competitiveness and investment, Ukraine’s reconstruction and sanctions against Russia, banking supervision, financial services, and digital finance. MEPs will meet, among others, the Bank of England Deputy Governor, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury and members of House of Lords and House of Commons

· Russia celebrates Day of the Defenders of the Motherland.

· Estonia celebrates Independence Day. Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of England begins a two-day conference at its London conference center on the theme “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet” to promote policy-relevant research in this field by bringing together researchers from academia, central banks and international institutions.

· Turkey Business Confidence (February)/ Capacity Utilization (February)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)/ Ifo Current Conditions (February)/ Ifo Expectations (February)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (February)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AKP party holds congress meeting.

· UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan makes a state visit to Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Global

· There will be a virtual meeting of G7 heads of state will be held to discuss potential avenues for a peaceful resolution.

· Brazil will lead the first BRICS+ Sherpas meeting as president of the bloc in Rio de Janeiro.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the Middle East followed by consultations.

· The UN Biodiversity 2025 Conference resumes sessions for the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Rome. Agenda includes securing $200bn annually for biodiversity by 2030.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump hosts French President Emmanuel Macron for meetings on Ukraine and US-EU trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Financial Stability followed by Q&A at the Yale School of Management in New Haven, Connecticut.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks before the 2025 BEAR (Bank of England Agenda for Research) Conference: “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet" in London.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Inflation Then and Now" before the Rotary Club of Richmond.

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (February)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)

· USA Redbook (February/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (December)/ House Price Index (December)/ CB Consumer Confidence (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Services Revenues Index (February)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (February)/ Money Supply (January)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/21)

· Argentina Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 2025 Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development opens at the UN Conference Center in Bangkok, running until Friday.

· South Korea's Constitutional Court will hold its final hearing for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial.

· The ASEAN Future Forum 2025 begins in Hanoi, Vietnam.

· China’s 62nd Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) begins in the eastern city of Hangzhou.

· New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit Vietnam through February 28 to discuss mutual security and trade issues.

· India and Japan will conduct joint urban warfare and counterterrorism drills near Mount Fuji.

· The Philippines and Japan hold a Defense Ministerial meeting in Manila.

· Thailand and the U.S. jointly host the 43rd annual Cobra Gold exercise, the largest and longest-running military exercise in Southeast Asia. More than 8,000 personnel from the two host countries as well as Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia will take part. China, an emerging supplier of military equipment to Thailand, and India will join humanitarian assistance training.

· The Philippines celebrates People Power Day, commemorating when in 1986 demonstrations took place that began leading to the end of the Marcos regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Index (December)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 3rd anniversary of Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war that started in February 2014.

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Future of Europe and the legislative agenda.

· The European Commission will present its Clean Industrial Deal and its "simplification omnibus" package.

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Kyiv for meetings with President Zelensky.

· NATO countries train in extreme cold conditions in Finland's Lapland during "Arctic Forge 25".

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England’s Annual Research Conference “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet” in London.

European Union New Car Registrations (January)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Hungary Gross Wage (December)/ Deposit Interest Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

· Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth Q4

· Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Kuwait celebrates National Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (December)

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Global

· The World Trade Organization holds a three-day trade policy review of Ukraine.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will hold his first cabinet meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Inflation Then and Now" before the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a conversation on the economic outlook and housing before the Urban Land Institute's annual Housing Opportunity Conference.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/21)/ New Home Sales (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/21)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Building Permits Final (January)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (January)

· Colombia Business Confidence (January)

· Argentina Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) hold a retreat on the Malaysian island of Penang to discuss strengthening regional security cooperation and strategic unity. On Friday, the bloc's economy ministers meet at Desaru in Malaysia's southern Johor state.

· Nikkei’s Japan-India-Africa Business Forum his held in Tokyo. A number of senior government officials and senior executives from various industries are scheduled to speak.

· Hong Kong unveils its budget for 2025, as a protracted downturn in the local property market and other factors weigh on the government's finances. Financial Secretary Paul Chan will be in the spotlight as observers look for any signs of changes to the city's low-tax structure, key to its appeal as a financial hub.

· Indonesia launches its first bullion bank in a move described by President Prabowo Subianto as essential for storing gold reserves extracted from local mines. The new bank is aimed at accommodating Indonesia's growing capability to produce gold bars.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Construction Work Done Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (January)

· Japan Coincident Index Final (December)/ Leading Economic Index Final (December)

· Singapore Industrial Production (January)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer travels to Washington, D.C., for meetings with President Trump to discuss trade and Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra gives the Dow Lecture, “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy”, at the offices of the think-tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (February)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (December)

· France Consumer Confidence (February)

· Spain PPI (January)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Industrial Production (January)

· Ireland Construction Output Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Infotopia 2025 Conference begins in the UAE.

· Kuwait celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Iraq was defeated after invading the country in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 27, 2025

Global

· The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in South Africa through February 28.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 2713 Committee (sanctions on Al-Shabaab). Afterwards, a briefing on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Police Commissioners is scheduled to be held in the afternoon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Anguilla holds parliamentary elections.

· Ontario Canada holds snap legislative assembly elections.

· The Dominican Republic celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on community banking at the Fort Hays State University Robbins Banking Institute Lecture Series, Hays, Kansas.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Financial Stability" before the Columbia University/Bank Policy Institute: 2025 Bank Regulation Research Conference.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Lyons Economic Forecast, presented by the University of Delaware's Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Canada Current Account Q4/ Average Weekly Earnings (December)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (January)/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/22)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (February)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/27)/ Kansas Fed Index (February)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting takes place in Kota Tinggi, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

· Great Britain Car Production (January)

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q4/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q4/ Private Capital Expenditure Q4

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (February)

· Malaysia PPI (January)

· Philippines Budget Balance (December)

· Sri Lanka PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission will visit India to advance free trade talks and hold the second meeting of the EU-India Trade and Technology Council through February 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank publishes minutes from the last rate-setting meeting.

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (January)/ Economic Confidence Index (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/21)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (January)

· France PPI (January)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)/ Jobseekers Total (January)

· Slovakia Business and Consumer Confidence (February)

· Spain Inflation Rate (February)

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)/ Economic Sentiment (February)/ Consumer Confidence Final (February)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ Industrial Sentiment (February)/ Selling Price Expectations (February)/ Services Sentiment (February)

· Italy Business and Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Sales (December)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Slovenia Retail Sales (January)

· Greece Total Credit (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Syria is expected to announce its new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (January)

Friday, February 28, 2025

Global

· Ramadan begins in the evening and goes through March 30.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Yamandu Orsi takes office as President of Uruguay.

· Argentine President Javier Milei gives an annual speech before the Legislative Assembly.

· Brazil holds Rio Carnival 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research 2025 SIEPR Economic Summit.

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4/ GDP (December)/ Budget Balance (December)

· Chile Copper Production (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· USA Core PCE Price Index (January)/ Personal Income & Spending (January)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (January)/ PCE Price Index (January)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (January)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ Core PCE Price Index (January)/ Chicago PMI (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/28)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Cement Production (January)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

· Peru Inflation Rate (February)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan celebrates Peace Memorial Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

· Japan Tokyo CPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February/22)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/22)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Construction Orders (January)

· Australia Housing Credit (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (February)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Singapore Bank Lending (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ PPI (January)

· Thailand Industrial Production (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Private Investment & Consumption (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· India Government Budget Value (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (February/14)/ Deposit Growth (February/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/21)/ Infrastructure Output (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 2nd Est 2024-25

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi.

· Andalusia celebrates Andalusia Day, celebrating when the region of Spain became autonomous.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives the keynote speech at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University on monetary policy in a world of geopolitical fragmentation.

· Germany Retail Sales (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Unemployed Persons (February)/ Unemployment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February)/ Bavaria CPI (February)/ Brandenburg CPI (February)/ Hesse CPI (February)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February)/ Saxony CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

· Hungary PPI (January)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ KOF Leading Indicators (February)/ Economic Sentiment Index (February)

· France Inflation Rate (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (January)/ Private & Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

· Spain Current Account (December)/ Business Confidence (February)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)

· Greece Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (January)

· Italy Inflation Rate (February)

· Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q4/ Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GNP Q4/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ Budget Balance (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Global

· Today is the first day of the meteorological spring.

· Denmark takes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

· NASA’s Europa Clipper mission is due to make a fly-by of Mars en route to Jupiter’s moon Europa, where it will become the first mission to conduct a detailed scientific investigation of the moon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the end of the 30-day suspension of US 25% tariffs President Trump is placing on Canada and Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day, a national holiday commemorating the protests against Japanese colonial rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· China NBS Non-Manufacturing, Manufacturing, & General PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 97th Academy Awards ceremony is held, where they give a bunch of awards for movies most of us have seen or heard of.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Tajikistan holds parliamentary and local elections.

· Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba faces a deadline to get his proposed budget passed by the lower house of parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/22/25 Francis Kelly 2/22/25

Federal Workers Are Not Where You Might Think They Are

February 18, 2025

We have fielded a number of client questions about the DOGE effort and how federal layoffs are impacting the economy in Virginia and Maryland (where impacted Washington-based federal workers live). What surprises most folks, however, is when we point out that more than 85 percent of federal workers live and work outside of Washington, D.C.

The Washington Post made this clear this morning when they published an excellent interactive map today showing where federal workers are in the United States.

The point is obvious: Communities far outside the Nation’s Capitol are likely to be impacted economically by ongoing and potential cuts.

The Post also broke down the various categories of what federal workers do as well as the size of the major departments and agencies currently undergoing DOGE scrutiny.

Francis Kelly 2/17/25 Francis Kelly 2/17/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Coming CFPB Restructuring Battle, No More Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, The OCC, CFTC, and CFPB All Get Nominees, and the New House Monetary Policy Task Force

February 17 - 21, 2025

The Coming CFPB Restructuring Battle, No More Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, The OCC, CFTC, and CFPB All Get Nominees, and the New House Monetary Policy Task Force

Washington is enjoying a holiday-shortened week, with President’s Day on Monday. The House of Representatives is out of session this week in honor of the day, but the Senate remains in session and is working hard to move forward with the budget reconciliation bill.

Last week, we saw action in nominating several important regulatory agencies. President Trump named Jonathan McKernan to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), Jonathan Gould to be the new Comptroller of the Currency (only two days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent named Rodney Hood as the Acting Head of the OCC), and Brian Quintenz as the Chair of the Commodities Future Trading Commission. We are tracking when their respective Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearings will be scheduled (as well as Paul Atkins for SEC Chair).

What was particularly interesting about the nominations is those that were not named: No new Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision or new Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chair. In addition to this, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, where he questioned whether the Fed needed a dedicated regulatory-focused board member and whether the entire board itself should be responsible. Knowing Jay Powell, he does not just muse out loud – he’s a cautious man, and he would not say this without there being something going on behind the scenes. Regulatory players around town we spoke to wondered out loud if the White House has discussed not nominating a replacement for outgoing Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr – talk about deregulation!

Speaking of deregulatory efforts, the Trump Administration continues to grind down the CFPB. It is clear to us that they want to either shut down the agency, fold it into either the FDIC or Fed, or break it apart and send the parts to both agencies. We have also heard more chatter about merging the OCC with the FDIC (which we think is a long shot).

However, seeing that the Republican-run US Congress is likely to pass two reconciliation bills this year, we have been wondering if the Trump White House is going to include significant financial regulatory restructuring in one or both bills. You cannot filibuster a Reconciliation bill – making it easier for Republicans to restructure the agencies. When you think of it, many other government departments and agencies could be consolidated or shut down via reconciliation. Looking at the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, it calls for the shutting down of the Department of Education, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Department of Homeland Security etc., etc. No one is talking about this potential radical restructuring of the federal governmental architecture – but you have to wonder what surprises President Trump has in store via the work of Elon Musk’s DOGE and the analysis of his very ambitious Director of the Office of Management and Budget Russell Voight.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, February 19, 10:00 a.m. – The Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Department of Labor nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

· Thursday, February 20, 10:00 a.m. – The Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Linda McMahon to be Secretary of Education.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is out of session this week in honor of President’s Day (Monday). No hearings are scheduled.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, February 17, 10:20 a.m. MT – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give brief remarks on the economy and bank regulation at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers, Phoenix, Arizona.

· Monday, February 17, 6:00 p.m. Sydney, Australia – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the UNSW Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, Australia.

· Monday, February 17, 10:00 a.m. – Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series Conference with the University of the Bahamas.

· Tuesday, February 18, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr will give a speech on Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· Tuesday, February 18, 9:00 a.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in a moderated discussion before the 2025 Conference for Community Bankers hosted by the American Bankers Association.

· Wednesday, February 19, 5:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Household Balance Sheets” at the Martin H. Crego Lecture in Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York.

· Thursday, February 20, 2:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, February 20, 5:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech entitled “Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve” at the 2025 Whittington Lecture, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, February 20, 12:00 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of New York.

· Thursday, February 20, 12:00 p.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Chicagoland Chamber Mid-Market Chicago event.

· Friday, February 21, 11:30 a.m. PST – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Central Bank Communication at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, February 21, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, February 18 – 8:00 a.m. MT – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood will discuss community banking at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in Phoenix, Arizona.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Tuesday, February 16 – 18 – The American Bankers Association holds its Conference for Community Bankers in Phoenix, Arizona.

· Wednesday, February 19, 8:30 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled US Trade Policy Under Trump: Spotlight on Canada and Mexico.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, February 19, Noon – The Exchequer Club hosts former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director and current Cato Institute Senior Advisor Mark Calabria for a talk on financial regulation.

Francis Kelly 2/16/25 Francis Kelly 2/16/25

The Global Week Ahead

Big Moves Toward Ukrainian Peace Talks, The EU Seeks to Head Off A Trade War with the US, Germany Holds What Could Be Historic Elections, The Israeli-Hezbollah Cease-Fire Is Set to Expire, and Markets Look to the Release FOMC Minutes

February 16 - 23, 2025

It will be a big week geopolitically - potentially historic in several ways. First, there is rapid movement toward establishing a framework to begin peace negotiations with Russia over its war on Ukraine. President Trump is dispatching US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to Saudi Arabia Monday to meet with Russian counterparts. The meeting aims to begin setting up the parameters for a possible meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks to start negotiating a Ukrainian peace deal.

As Rubio/Walz/Witkoff meet in Riyadh with the Russians, Trump’s Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, retired US Army General Keith Kellogg, will meet with EU President Ursula von der Leyen and then NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the peace effort.

As all this is taking place, French President Emmanual Macron will be convening an “emergency” meeting of EU leaders (leaders of Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Sapin, the Netherlands, and Denmark, as well as the NATO Secretary-General and the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission) to discuss what President Trump is doing and what they should be doing. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said this “is a once-in-a-generation moment for our national security.” All this being said, the two massive questions on the table are: What does Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky think about what Trump is saying and doing? And what exactly is President Trump’s vision for a peace deal, and does it include Ukraine giving up the land Russia has seized? All in all, it appears Zelensky and Ukrainian concerns are being somewhat left to the side. Also, coordination between the US and NATO partners lags behind Trump’s lightning-speed efforts.

Meanwhile, in Washington, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is flying over to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to urgently discuss how to avoid a looming US-EU trade war, which will be launched by President Trump’s promised reciprocal tariffs. Sefcovic is not scheduled at this point to meet with President Trump directly, but rumors abound that this might actually happen. Markets need to watch this trip closely.

Also happening in Europe this week, German voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government. Christian Democrat Party Leader Fredrik Merz is on track to see his party win in the polls along with their Bavarian partners, the Christian Social Union (currently at 29.2%). The question is: Which other parties will they form a coalition with to avoid at all costs working with the ultra-far-right AfD Party, which is now currently in second place in the polls (21.3%)? Most Germans – indeed, most of Europe – are shocked and dismayed to see the AfD – which has repeatedly been shown to have a significant number of members who are Nazi sympathizers gain such an uptick in popularity. And that makes this election potentially historic as the Merz will likely have to go in with the Green Party and the left-of-center Social Democrats (SPD) led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Turning to the Middle East, Monday marks the grim milestone of the 500th day since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed more than 2,500 civilians and resulted in the taking of 251 hostages. While the Gaza cease-fire remains incredibly fragile, with sporadic attacks taking place, hope remains that the rest of the hostages will be released in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah is technically set to expire. However, most observers expect it to be extended. Israel is asking for a ten-day extension (until February 28) before they pull back the last of their troops from Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is not likely to want to return to full-scale fighting, having been severely mauled by Israeli forces and having a large portion of its military leadership killed.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets are keenly awaiting the release of the FMOC’s minutes on Wednesday to get a clearer sense of just how worried the Federal Reserve is about a resurgence of inflation and if there is any chance for further rate cuts this year.

In Asia, Japan releases Q4 GDP estimates, January CPI figures, and trade and machinery order data. Australia’s Reserve Bank meets on interest rates on Tuesday.

In Europe, the UK releases labor figures on Tuesday, inflation data on Wednesday, and consumer confidence on Friday. Germany releases the ZEW Survey on Tuesday, and we will see the Eurozone consumer confidence report on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching closely in the coming week:

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

· Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng leads a delegation of 220 representatives from 140 Canadian organizations on a trade mission to Australia as part of the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· North Korea has a national holiday celebrating the birth of former leader Kim Jon-il who died in 2011.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his conservative challenger Friedrich Merz plus Alice Weidel of the AfD, and Robert Habeck from the Greens take part in a four-way TV debate on German channel RTL ahead of next week’s federal election

· Today is the first anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s murder in Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The 8th Indian Ocean Conference takes place in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Heads of State and Government Summit finishes.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security focused on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Walz, and President Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will travel to Saudi Arabia for meetings with Russian envoys to lay the groundwork for negotiations seeking to end the war in Ukraine.

· EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington for meetings with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett in an effort to ward off possible trade tariffs on the EU.

· Today is President’s Day in the US, a national holiday. Financial markets and banks are closed. The US House of Representatives is out of session this week in honor of President’s Day. The US Senate is in session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give brief remarks on the economy and bank regulation at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers, Phoenix, Arizona.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the UNSW Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, Australia.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series Conference with the University of the Bahamas.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Housing Starts (January)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (December)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ ISE Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a Tech Symposium with leading Chinese tech CEOs in Beijing in an effort to spur further growth in the sector.

· Malaysia will host the China Conference: Southeast Asia 2025 in Kuala Lumpur. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will speak.

· Sri Lanka's three-month-old government will present its first national budget as the country faces pressure from the International Monetary Fund to reach a primary fiscal surplus of 2.3 % of GDP and a tax-to-GDP ratio of 14% by next year. The IMF's conditions are part of a $3 billion bailout to help the country recover from its 2022 economic meltdown.

· Vietnam’s Parliament is scheduled to vote on a series of major civil service reforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Prel Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production Final (December)/ Tertiary Industry Index (December)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Full Year GDP Growth 2024

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

· Philippines Cash Remittances (December)

· China Vehicle Sales (January)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Sri Lanka PPI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European heads of state gather in Paris for an emergency meeting to discuss and potentially agree on a common proposal to resolve the Ukraine War. The meeting is being convened in response to President Trump’s fast-moving effort to meet with Russian President Putin to discuss Trump’s proposal to end the war.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with General Keith Kellogg (ret.), the US Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine and Russia in Brussels. Kellogg will also meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Brussels to discuss President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine.

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss the state of convergence in Bulgaria, the macroeconomic outlook for the Euro area, and the work program for the group up to July 2025. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will participate.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Serbia's Foreign Minister Marko Duric for meetings in Moscow.

· Romania’s far-right opposition parties are expected to submit a no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s government.

· There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Brussels through February 18.

· The US Army Europe and Africa will hold its biennial exercise in the Arctic called Arctic Forge 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

· Italy Balance of Trade (December)

· Spain Balance of Trade (December)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ European Commission Winter Forecasts/ ECOFIN Meeting

· Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Ireland Balance of Trade (December)

· Belarus Industrial Production (January)

· Turkey Auto Production (January)/ Auto Sales (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 500th day anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel and the taking of hostages.

· Today is February 17th, Revolution Day, a national holiday celebrating when the people of Libya threw off the rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s 40 years of rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

· Nigeria Food Inflation (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Global

· The World Trade Organization begins a two-day council meeting in Geneva.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Practicing multilateralism, reforming and improving global governance. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Lula da Silva hosts Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Sao Paulo.

· Bermuda holds elections for its House of Assembly.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr will give a speech on Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks and participates in a moderated discussion before the 2025 Conference for Community Bankers hosted by the American Bankers Association.

· Canada Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Median (January)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (January)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (February)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (December)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, begins a three-day visit to Japan to review the country’s nuclear power plants.

· South Korea's constitutional court continues hearings this week on whether President Yoon Suk Yeol should be removed from office over his short-lived martial law order in December. That ruling is expected early next month. On Thursday, a Seoul district court will begin Yoon's criminal trial on insurrection charges.

· Singapore’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Lawrence Wong, delivers the government's 2025 budget in a critical election year. As a key step in preparing for the city-state's general election due by November, observers are expecting new policies and generous support measures aimed at tackling the most pressing voter concerns, such as rising living costs.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Th EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU competitiveness and improving the business environment, the situation in Ukraine, the EU budget for 2026, and the economic governance framework.

· France’s upper House of Parliament is expected to debate and vote on the highly controversial 2025 Social Security budget.

· Today is the inauguration of President Zoran Milanovic in Croatia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has a “fireside chat” in Brussels with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of Belgian think-tank Bruegel, on “preserving and enhancing open financial markets.”

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a livestreamed MNI Connect video conference “The ECB's Balance Sheet Policies and Implications in the Current Economic Context”.

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (January/Labour Productivity Final Q3

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q4

· France Inflation Rate Final (January)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)/ ZEW Current Conditions (February)

· Belarus GDP (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement expires unless extended. The initial deal, brokered by the US and France, began in November and halted nearly 14 months of conflict by requiring both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Gambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q4/ Unemployed Persons Q4/ Annual Budget Speech

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

· Angola Wholesale Prices (December)

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund will host the third FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, United States, through Feb. 21, and U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend and speak.

· The Caricom Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community meet in Barbados.

· The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Department of Labor nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

· The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through Saturday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Household Balance Sheets” at the Martin H. Crego Lecture in Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York.

· US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes are released.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/14)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Redbook (February/15)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/14

· Brazil Business Confidence (February)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s Parliament vote on proposed rail line to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board member Jajimi Takata gives a speech to local business leaders in Miyagi, Japan.

· New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q4/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Machinery Orders (December)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (January)/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q4

· China House Price Index (January)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (January)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (February)

· India M3 Money Supply (February/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission will present its “vision” for agriculture.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will give an annual speech at Russia's State Duma on Russia's foreign policy priorities.

· The French Parliament will examine a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Francois Bayrou tabled by the center-left Socialist Party for his recent controversial remarks on immigration.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland speaks on a panel at the Currency Research Central Bank Payments summit in Paris on “what can be the next game changer.”

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI Output & Input (January)/ Retail Price Index (January)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (December)

· Italy Current Account (December)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (December)

· Russia PPI (January)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The leaders of five Arab countries hold a summit on Donald Trump's Gaza plan in Cairo. The leaders of Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan will attend. Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas is rumored to be attending, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (January)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the annual national budget to parliament.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Global

· G20 Foreign Ministers will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, to meet. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russia's Sergei Lavrov will be there.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg will visit Kyiv, Ukraine, for meetings regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and President Trump’s efforts to start peace talks.

· The US Senate’s Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Linda McMahon to be Secretary of Education.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech entitled “Navigating Inflation Waves While Riding on the Phillips Curve” at the 2025 Whittington Lecture, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks and participates in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Economic Club of New York.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Chicagoland Chamber Mid-Market Chicago event.

· Mexico Retail Sales (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Canada New Housing Price Index (January)/ PPI (January)/ Raw Materials Prices (January)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February)/ CB Leading Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/14)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/20)/Fed Balance Sheet (February/19)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (February)

· Colombia Cement Production (December)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Halifax International Security Forum starts a two-day conference in Taipei. It is the first time the Forum has been held in Taiwan, and the conference's theme is to "highlight Taiwan's thriving democracy for global leaders," with a series of on- and off-the-record discussions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/15)

· Australia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

· Indonesia Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Taiwan Export Orders (January)/ Current Account Q4

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga is due to address the IISS-Asia strategic think tank in Singapore (the Shangri La Conference).

· Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gives the annual State of the Nation speech.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Sasha Mills, executive director of financial market infrastructure at the Bank of England, speaks at the UK T+1 Accelerated Settlement Market event hosted by KPMG in London.

· Germany PPI (January)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (January)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)/ Central Government Debt (January)

· Greece Current Account (December)

· Italy Construction Output (December)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January)/ Employment Growth (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ PPI (January)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

· Euro Area Construction Output (December)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (February)

· Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February)/ Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)

· Slovakia Current Account (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (January)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The French Army will officially hand over control of their military base in Abidjan, Ivory Coast – one of France’s last outposts in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (December)

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 21, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Central Bank Communication at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Economic Activity (December)

· Canada Retail Sales (December)/ Retail Sales Final (December)/ BoC Gov Macklem Speech

· USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (February)/Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February/21)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (February)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Australia S&P Global Australia Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (February)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (January)

· India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/14)

· China FDI (YTD) (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a keynote speech at the FIW-Research Conference on International Economics in Vienna, Austria.

· Great Britain Retail Sales (January)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (January)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (January)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (February)

· Italy Inflation Rate Final (January)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

· Serbia PPI (January)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Saturday, February 22, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's Defense Minister Gen Nakatani visits the Philippines for talks with his Filipino counterpart, Gilbert Teodoro, including about an intelligence-sharing agreement. The move follows Tokyo's supply of air defense radar equipment to Manila in 2023, and forms part of an effort to strengthen defense collaboration with like-minded countries around China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion Day in Algeria, a national holiday celebrating the revolution in 2019, throwing off the autocratic reign of power of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

· Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country. Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor. But it is unclear what sort of coalition he will after form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

· Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/14/25 Francis Kelly 2/14/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The OCC Gets An Acting Comptroller, The CFPB Is Ordered to Stop Doing Whatever It’s Doing, Congress Starts Moving on Crypto Legislation, And Treasury Gets a New Assistant Secretaries for Financial Markets and Financial Institutions

February 10 - 14, 2025

While President Trump has yet to nominate anyone to any major financial regulatory post other than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) (Paul Atkins as Chair), he has overseen the installation of a number of acting heads. The latest is Rodney Hood as the Acting Comptroller of the Currency.

Hood, who served as Chair of the National Credit Union Administration during President Trump's first term and remained as Vice Chair during most of the Biden Administration, has a strong pedigree in banking, having held senior positions at Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and J.P. Morgan Chase.

What is interesting is that this is only an acting role. Hood reportedly does not want to be made full-time and will only serve until President Trump selects someone else. Hood joins the "Acting Club" with Caroline Pham as the Acting Chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Travis Hill as Acting Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Mark Uyeda as Acting Chair of the SEC (until Atkins is confirmed), and Russel Voight (the newly confirmed Director of the Office of Management and Budget) as the Acting Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

The CFPB is the hot topic of the week here in Washington, especially since Voight took over the Acting role from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Voight has ordered agency employees not to come into work or perform any work tasks – including moving on any ongoing litigation. Moreover, Voight has instructed the Federal Reserve – which funds the CFPB out of its budget – not to send any more money as it is not "reasonably necessary to carry out its duties." What is clear is the Trump Administration wants to do away with the CFPB – to the loud cheering of virtually every financial institution regulated by the agency – and, if they cannot outright shut it down, then starve it to death financially.

The National Treasury Employees Union, which represents CFPB employees, has sued Voight, asking a judge to halt his orders and block Elon Musk's DOGE staffers from accessing internal CFPB communications systems. If you go to the CFPB's website, you get the always ominous "404: Page Not Found" message (see screenshot below).

Over at Treasury this past week, there were two particularly important nominations for the financial services sector. Jason Trennert, the founder and Chair of Strategas Research Partners, was nominated to the role of Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets, and Luke Pettit, an aide to Senator Hagerty and previously at Bridgewater Associates and, before that, the Federal Reserve, was nominated to be Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee continue rapidly accelerating their legislative strategies for the year. House Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) and his top deputy on cryptocurrency policy unveiled a draft bill last week to create a stablecoins regulatory structure. The legislation closely mirrors legislation offered in the Senate by Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) and co-sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and a number of other members.

There is not much happening at the regulatory agencies this coming week. The big events are Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's semi-annual testimony before Congress on the State of the Economy and Governor Christopher Waller's interesting and timely speech in San Francisco on Stablecoins.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Tuesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on "The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress." Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify.

House of Representatives

Tuesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Examining the Economic Crisis in Farm Country.”
Tuesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – The House Judiciary Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Reining in the Administrative State: Regulatory and Administrative Law Reform."
Tuesday, February 11, 2:30 p.m. – The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee holds a hearing on "A Golden Age of Digital Assets: Charting a Path Forward."
Wednesday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on "The Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report." Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell will testify.
Wednesday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing on "Driving Economic Growth: SBA Lending Programs and the Vital Role of Community Banks."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday, February 11, 3:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Bank Regulation at the 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference.
Wednesday, February 12, 5:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the A Very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications, San Francisco, California.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, February 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Tuesday, February 11, 1:00 p.m. – Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a virtual meeting of the Consumer Advisory Board to discuss broad policy matters related to the Bureau's Unified Regulatory Agenda and general scope of authority (NOTE: This meeting is likely to be cancelled).
Wednesday, February 12, 1:00 p.m. – The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau holds a virtual meeting of the Combined Community Bank Advisory Council and Credit Union Advisory Council to discuss broad policy matters related to the Bureau's Unified Regulatory Agenda and general scope of authority (NOTE: This meeting is likely to be canceled).

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

Thursday, February 13, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board of Directors holds a meeting to consider a regulatory burden final notice.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

Wednesday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – the FCSIC Board of Director will hold a meeting. The agenda includes review and setting of insurance premium accrual rates (Open); Policy statement concerning contracting (Open); Report on biennial liquidity assistance exercise (Closed); Annual report on Contracts (Closed); and Annual report on whistleblower activity (Closed)

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Tuesday, February 11, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 U.S. Regulatory & Compliance Orientation Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Monday – Tuesday, February 10 – 11 – Compliance Week holds its “Cyber Risk & Data Privacy Summit” in Washington, D.C.
Monday – Tuesday, February 10 – 11 – The Washington International Trade Association holds its 2025 Washington International Trade Conference. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Chairman Tim Scott (R-S.C.) delivers a luncheon keynote address on Monday.
Tuesday, February 11, 3:00 p.m. – the Federalist Society will hold a virtual discussion entitled Cryptocurrency after the Election.”
Thursday, February 13, 9:00 a.m. – PunchBowl News hosts "The Summit: Tax Policy," discussing tax policy in the new administration.
Thursday, February 13, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual event entitled “Is “Twin Peaks’ the Future of Financial Supervision?”
Thursday, February 13, 9:45 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a conference entitled “The Outlook for Retirement Security in a New Congress.”
Thursday, February 13, 11:00 a.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 11 a.m., on "Recapitalizing the GSEs (government-sponsored enterprises) through Administrative Action: Impact on Mortgage Rates and the MBS (mortgage-backed security) Market."

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