The Global Week Ahead

June 18 - 25, 2023

Geopolitics will again dominate the global market's attention this week as high-level diplomats from the US and China begin major trips seeking to calm global tensions.  First, Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Beijing for meetings – the first time a US cabinet-level official has visited in three years.  While no breakthroughs are anticipated, it may finally put a floor below the US-China relationship, which has been in free-fall for several years.

Later in the week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will travel to Germany and France to discuss EU-China relations, focusing on high-tech investments, the revival of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, Huawei's role in 5G networks, and other economic issues.

Meanwhile, in Washington this week, President Biden hosts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for meetings focusing on further tightening defense and technology sharing between the two nations – an increasingly important strategic alliance for both countries.

In Paris this week, the Summit for a New Global Financial Pact convenes with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and numerous leaders of southern nations.  The Summit aims to build a more inclusive international financial system to fight inequalities and climate transition and move closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

On the global economic agenda this week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell's semiannual testimonies before the House of Representatives and Senate on the state of the economy.  Several major market PMIs (Japan, Germany, and the US) are released, and the Bank of England decides whether to pursue another interest rate increase.

China will be deciding on domestic banks' prime loan rates fixings as markets increasingly worry about the strength – or lack thereof – of the second biggest economy.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, June 18, 2023 

Global

·       Father’s Day is celebrated in a number of countries around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay celebrates Artigas’ Day, celebrating the birth of Jośe Gervasio Artigas, who is known as the father of Uruguayan nationhood.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Qiang will travel to Germany and France to discuss EU-China relations with a focus on high tech investments, revival of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, Huawei’s role in 5G networks and other economic issues.

·       China hosts the Straits Forum through June 19.  The focus of the forum is to promote cultural and economic exchanges with Taiwan as well build stronger communications between the peoples of both countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Six African leaders will continue their visit to Moscow and Kyiv encouraging peace talks. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is leading the delegation, which also includes heads of state from Zambia, the Republic of Congo, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda.

·       Switzerland holds referendums nationwide on the implementation of the OECD/G20 project that ensures large international corporations are taxed at least 15 percent.  They will also vote on the Federal Act which goes to reducing the countries uses of oil and natural gas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mali holds a constitutional referendum.  It was initially scheduled for July 9, 2017 but delayed.  It was further delayed in 2021 following a coup d’état.   The vote is over creating new regions in line with a 2015 agreement with separatists in Northern Mali.

·       European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will travel to Nairobi, Kenya, to meet Kenyan President William Ruto and sign an interim EU-Kenya Economic Partnership Agreement.

·       Today is Constitution Day in the Seychelles, marking the day the declaration of the referendum in 1993 making the country a multi-party democracy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, June 19, 2023 

Global

·       The Financial Action Task Force will meet in Paris through June 23.  Among the issues they will consider is adding Russia to its “Black List” of countries for money laundering and/or supporting terrorist activities.

·       The UN will hold a high-level pledging event for Sudan.  The meeting will be held in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN will hold the Third United Nations High-level Conference of Heads of Counter-Terrorism Agencies of Member States at UN Headquarters in New York.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Juneteenth National Independence Day, a federal holiday.  Banks and stock exchanges are closed as is the federal government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NAHB Housing Market Index (June)

·       Canada Raw Materials Prices (May), PPI (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The North Korean Worker’s Party Plenary Session is expected to be held in Pyongyang.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as preparations for the July NATO Summit.  He will also meet with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and attend the Air Defender 2023 exercises, NATO’s larges air deployment exercise in its history.

·       Belarus hosts the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Ministerial Meeting.  Leaders from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Georgia are expected to be in attendance.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council meets in Luxembourg.  They will discuss electricity market design.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat on the occasion of the awarding of the German Bernacer prize in Madrid, Spain. 

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairing session at conference "New challenges for the Economic and Monetary Union in the post-crisis environment" organized by Euro50 Group in Luxembourg.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a prize awarding ceremony of economic journalism organized by Asociación de Periodistas Europeos, KPMG and Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (BME) in Madrid 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (June), Unemployment (May)

·       Israel Unemployment (May), Manufacturing Production (May)

·       Jordan Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nigerian government and the Nigerian Labour Congress, a federation of trade unions, will negotiate over fuel subsidy removal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Tuesday, June 20 , 2023 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Italy and France.  He is expected to discuss finalizing the EU-Mercosur trade agreement and funding for the Amazon Fund to fight further degradation of the rain forest.

·       Opposition parties in Colombia are calling for nationwide protests against President Gustavo Petro and his Administration following the revelation of a scandal involving a nanny, a missing briefcase of cash, and illegal wiretapping.  Gustavo Petro has seen political allies resign as an investigation has been launched by the Attorney General.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard gives a speech entitled “Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World” at the Barcelona School of Economics Forum in Barcelona, Spain.

·       US Building Permits (May), Housing Starts (May), International Monetary Market Date

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenue (April)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (April)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (April)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (April), Industrial Production (April)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (May)

·       Hong Kong Inflation (May)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will participate in a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Forum in Sydney, RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock will give a speech at the AI Group in Newcastle, Australia.

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 7th German-Chinese government consultations take place in Berlin, Germany.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg where they will discuss CO2 emission targets for heavy-duty vehicles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives introductory remarks at a conference on Counterparty Credit Risk in Frankfurt. 

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul chairs a panel at a conference on Counterparty Credit Risk in Frankfurt.  Later in the day, she is the keynote speaker at the annual Workshop of the Council for the US and Italy.  Her speech is entitled “The future of globalization: politics, business, lifestyles, brands” organized by the Council for the United States and Italy in Milan, Italy.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks on the occasion of the awarding of the German Bernacer prize in Madrid, Spain.

·       Eurozone Current Account (April), Construction Output (April)

·       Germany PPI (May)

·       Italy Current Account (April)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia Current Account (April)

·       Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (June)

·       Slovenia Unemployment (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya hosts the African Energy Forum through June 23.

·       Eritrea holds Martyrs’ Day, commemorating all those who died fighting for freedom between 1961 and 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (April) 

Wednesday, June 21, 2023 

Global

·        The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on peace and security in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits President Biden.  The focus of the meetings will be to seek new ways to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries.  It is expected Biden will particularly focus on mutual defense and technology issues.

·       The Organization of American States (OAS) holds its annual assembly in Washington, DC through June 23.

·       The US Senate Banking Committee holds nomination hearings for Governor Philip Jefferson’s nomination to be Vice Chair for Monetary Policy and Lisa DeNell Cook and Adriana Debora Kugler to be members of the Board of Governors.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the US House Financial Services Committee to present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before the Wall Street Journal Global Food Forum in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Mester gives opening remarks at the Cleveland Fed Policy Summit 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       US MBA Mortgage Index Data (June 16), Redbook (June 17)

·       Canada Central Bank Summary of Deliberations, Retail Sales (April), New Housing Price Index (May)

·       Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Private Spending (Q1), Aggregate Demand (Q1), Aggregate Demand (Q1)

·       Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (May), Leading Indicator (May)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Adachi Seiji speaks to a group of local leaders in Kagoshima, Japan.

·       Japan Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Reuters Tankan Index (June)

·       South Korea PPI (May)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)

·       Hong Kong Current Account (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development hosts the 2nd Ukraine Recovery Conference will be held in London.  The focus of the meeting will be to discuss how to mobilize of international and private sector support for the economic and social stabilization of Ukraine.  While there, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to meet with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, to press for Turkey to accept Sweden to become a member of NATO.

·       NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will take part in a transatlantic conversation in Brussels on climate and security, together with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission, John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and Frans Timmermans, First Vice-President of the European Commission. 

·       The EU General Affairs Council holds an informal meeting in Luxembourg through June 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at "60 Jahre Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung" in Berlin, Germany.

·       Eurozone New Car Registrations (May)

·       UK Inflation (May), PPI (May), Public Sector Borrowing (May), Retail Sales (May), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)

·       Italy Construction Output (April)

·       Poland Unemployment (May), Industrial Production (May), PPI (May), Corporate Sector Wages (May)

·       Switzerland National Bank Financial Stability Report released.

·       Sweden Unemployment (May)

·       Slovenia PPI (May), Current Account (April)

·       Russia PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June), Capacity Utilization (June)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (May), M2 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyr’s Day in Toga, commemorating those who fought for independence from British and French colonization.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation (May)

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Global

·       The Summit for a New Global Financial Pact will be held in Paris, France and go through June 23.  The goal of the summit is to address debt distress in many countries and how nations can better respond to climate change.

·        The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Somalia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee giving the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the International Journal of Central Banking and Central Bank of Ireland conference, Dublin, Ireland.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

·       US Current Account (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (June 17), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May), Existing Home Sales (May), CB Leading Index (May), Kansas Fed Composite Index (June)

·       Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Mid-month Inflation (June)

·       Argentina GDP (Q1), Unemployment (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Noguchi Asahi addresses local leaders in Okinawa.

·       Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (May), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will speak to the Bundestag to lay out his priorities ahead of the EU Leaders Summit that takes place next week.  He leaves that evening for a dinner meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and then will participate in the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank General Council Meeting

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta Fabio Panetta gives a speech at the fifth annual joint conference of the Deutsche Bundesbank, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on CCP risk management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a roundtable organized by the Spanish association of financial journalists as part of the summer courses of Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

·       Eurozone Consumer Confidence (June)

·       UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Release of Meeting Minutes

·       France Business Confidence (June), Business Climate Indicator (June)

·       Switzerland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Norway Central Bank Interest Decision & Press Conference, Loan Growth (May), Unemployment (May)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (April)

·       Slovakia Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (June 16)

·       Kuwait Inflation (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Lebanon Inflation (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

 European Union-Africa heads-of-state summit in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP (Q1) 

Friday, June 23, 2023

Global

·        The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives "Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World" presentation before the Central Bank of Ireland and International Journal of Central Banking Research Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Raphael Bullard gives remarks at the University of Georgia Terry College of Business CFO Roundtable in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Mester gives a speech at the Cleveland Fed Policy Summit 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       US S&P Global Services & Manufacturing & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (May), Average Weekly Earnings (April), Wholesale Sales (May)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (June), IGP-M Inflation (June), Federal Tax Revenues

·       Chile PPI (May)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (May)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay GDP (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation (May), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       India FX Reserves (June 16)

·       Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Singapore CPI (May), Inflation (May)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Malaysia Inflation (May), Leading Index (April), Coincident Index (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday commemorating the fight against both Soviet-Russian troops and Baltic-German Landwehr Army in 1918.

·     Today is the 7th Anniversary of the Brexit Referendum.

·       Luxembourg celebrates National Day today,

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion on the future of crypto at the 22nd BIS Annual Conference on central banks, macro-financial stability, and the future of the financial system in Basel, Switzerland.

·       Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (June), Retail Sales (May), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June), CBI Distributive Trades (June)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Spain GDP (Q1)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Poland Unemployment (May), M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Switzerland Current Account (Q1)

·       Hungary Unemployment (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, June 24, 2023 

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommer-Dialog 2023 in Königswinter, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Sierra Leone holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guatemala holds central elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds parliamentary run-off elections.  If no clear winners emerge, a 3rd run-off will be held in August.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating the day when the country declared independence from Yugoslavia.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking the day in 1991 when the country declared its independence from Yugoslavia.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Today is Mozambique Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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