The Global Week Ahead

The Trump Cabinet Nominees Get Confirmation Hearings, Iran’s President Meets With Russian President Putin While Germany, France, and UK Meet With Iran Over Their Nuclear Program, And Earnings Season in the US Kicks Off

The geopolitical and geoeconomic radar screens will be full this coming week.  This is the last week of the Biden Administration with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration, one week from Monday.  The U.S. Congress is already moving quickly on many fronts in advance of the incoming Trump Administration, as almost all of President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees will have their confirmation hearings held this week.  The hearings will give markets a richer sense of many of Trump’s policy proposals – how they will be carried out by the respective nominees, cost, timelines, etc.

We are anticipating fairly quick action on a number of them and the very real possibility that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent will be confirmed by Inauguration Day, allowing them to be sworn into office the same day President Trump (which is the historical norm).

Outside the U.S. this week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian travels to Moscow this week for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to sign a new comprehensive cooperation agreement.  The agreement includes a new North-South Corridor, which allows for greater trade and energy cooperation between the two countries. 

While this is going on, diplomats from France, Germany, and the UK will meet with Iranian diplomats in Geneva, Switzerland, to again try to persuade Iran from further enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons.  The three European countries were signatories to the 2015 nuclear pact (along with the US, Russia, and China), which President Trump exited in 2018.  It is unlikely Iran will agree, especially with President Trump coming back into office and the face of the multiple foreign policy and military setbacks Tehran has suffered in recent months (the massive degrading of their proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of Syrian strongman and Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

In Asia, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will be conducting important meetings in South Korea, the Philippines, and the Island nation of Palau, seeking mutual security arrangements as China gets more active and aggressive in the region. 

Turning the busy global economic agenda this week, in the US markets – in their first full trading week of the New Year – are looking at the CPI release on Wednesday, the PPI print on Thursday, and the Fed’s publishing of the Beige Book in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on January 29.  Also out this week are the retail sales report and industrial production data.  All this comes as corporate earnings season kicks off in the US. 

Staying in the Americas, we would also note that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be announcing a major new public-private sector plan to boost investment in Mexico.  Markets are looking for details of the plan to get a sense of the newly inaugurated Sheinbaum’s overall economic policy focus.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its account of the last interest meeting.  The UK has CPI, PPI, and RPI reports coming on Wednesday.

Finally, looking at Asia, China has all-important trade data released on Monday and Q4 GDP figures on Friday, while Japan also releases trade data and bank lending information.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        First launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves concludes a two-day visit to Beijing to participate in the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue since 2019.  Accompanying Reeves will be a business delegation along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.  The goal of the meetings is to increase Chinese investment in the UK and facilitate easier UK investment in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Croatia holds its presidential runoff election. Incumbent President Zoran Milanović is due to face rival Dragan Primorac.

·       Germany’s Green Party officially launches its election campaign with Robert Habeck.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Monday, January 13, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden gives farewell foreign policy speech at the State Department in Washington, D.C.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to unveil a new public-private sector plan to help grow investment in Mexico.

·       In Peru, Prosecutors summon President Dina Boluarte to testify about her nose surgery (why did she keep it secret, and did she violate the law by not officially notifying the appropriate authorities that she was being put under for the surgery).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Monthly Budget Statement (December)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya travels to Seoul, South Korea for bilateral meetings to discuss trade and security issues.  From there, he will travel to the Philippines and the Island nation of Palau.

·       Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The meeting comes less than two weeks ahead of Belarus’ presidential elections on January 26.

·       The Secretary General of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Hiroshi Moriyama, will travel to Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials. 

·       In Pakistan, Ex-prime minister Imran Khan expected to be sentenced in graft case.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong and runs through Tuesday. 

·       In Japan, today is “Coming of Age Day”, a national holiday that encourages those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of Japanese society. 

·       In India, today is the first day of Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) – the world’s biggest festival with an expected 450 million participants.  Today  Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event is held every 12 years.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (November)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Vehicle Sales (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (November)

·       India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Defence Ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Britain visit Poland for talks on the situation in Ukraine.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, exchanges with members of the European Parliament (MEPS) serving on the Committee on Foreign Affairs. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Current Account (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds talks with France, Germany, and the UK in Geneva to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique swears in its new parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q3

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). 

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian New Year.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate begins the confirmation process for Defense Secretary-nominee Pete Hegseth, Interior Secretary-nominee Doug Burgum, and Veterans Affairs Secretary-nominee Doug Collins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before 4th Annual  "An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability" event.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Central Exchange.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ PPI (December)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/10)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya visits the Philippines.  The visit is aimed to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries at a time when the Philippines is facing increasingly tense relations and stand-offs in the South China Sea with China.

·       South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its first hearing on the future of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was impeached in early December. 

·       The National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference’s (CPPCC) Shanghai Committee hosts opening session of 3rd plenary in Shanghai.

·       Sri Lanka President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visits Beijing for bilateral meetings. It is Dissanayake’s first official visit to China and he is expected to discuss strengthening relations and Sri Lanka’s debt treatment.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits Vietnam for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives remarks at a meeting of local leaders in Kanagawa, Japan.

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January)/ Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)/ BoJ Himino Speech

·       India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland hosts a Security summit for NATO countries bordering Baltic Sea.  This comes in the wake of several subsea cables being deliberately cut by Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov holds annual press conference in Moscow.

·       French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou delivers general policy statement to Members of Parliament.  Bayrou is currently negotiating a tough budget deal with parliament.

·       Today is Novy God (Russian New Year).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conference on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" in Hong Kong.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (December)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech

·       France Budget Balance (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ M1 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to Libyan sanctions.  In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly Oil Markets Report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Senate holds confirmation hearings for Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of Agriculture, Chris Wright to be Secretary of Energy, Pam Bondi to be Attorney General, Lee Zeldin to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Kristi Noem to be Homeland Security Secretary and Russell Vought to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget Director

·       NASA's Blue Ghost lunar lander launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the lander.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Maryland Chamber of Commerce "Meet the State 2025: Making Maryland More Competitive" event.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2025 Regional Economic Conditions Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) Economic Summit and Outlook 2025.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks before virtual Wisconsin Bankers Association Midwest Economic Forecast Forum.

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/10)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (January/10)/NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (January)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh’s interim government is receiving a number of recommendations from reform commissions created to review the electoral system, judiciary, and policy.

·       Japanese company ispace launches second uncrewed moon mission from Merritt Island.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import & Export Prices (December)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)/ Machine Tool Orders (December)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Loan Growth (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (January)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO military chiefs hold regular meetings in Brussels.  The agenda includes a discussion of the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the Global Macro conference of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 15th Spain Investors Day 2025 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at TheCityUK entitled “The future of stress testing.”

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univeristy entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook.”

·       EU Industrial Production (November)

·       Netherlands Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Romania Industrial Production (November)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI Output & Input (December)/ Retail Price Index (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (November)

·       Serbia Building Permits (November)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (December)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique President-elect Daniel Chapo is sworn into office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations in the morning on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will hold a press conference outlining his priorities for 2025.

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its report on nuclear power.

·       The International Labor Organization releases its report on World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2025.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds a confirmation hearing for U.S. Secretary of Treasury-nominee Scott Bessent while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

·       Canada Housing Starts (December)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (January/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Import & Export Prices (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/15)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vanuatu holds snap parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan PPI (December)

·       Australia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka Services PMI (December)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson, press conference follows.  Later, the German Social Democratic Party officially launches its electoral campaign with Scholz as its candidate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes the Monetary Policy Meeting Account from the last interest rate meeting.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ BoE Credit Conditions Survey/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       Netherlands Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (November)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

·       Serbia Current Account (November)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (December)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision (January)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, January 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council Military Staff Committee holds a meeting in New York.  The role of the Committee – which is a subsidiary of the Security Council – is to “advise and assist the Security Council on all questions relating to the Council’s military requirements for the maintenance of international peace and security.”  They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza as well as various ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)

·       USA Housing Starts (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s largest car show kicks off in New Delphi.  India is the third largest auto market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/11)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       China House Price Index (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ Business Confidence Q4/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth (January/03)/ Deposit Growth (January/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual keynote lecture at the Crypto Asset Lab conference 2025 organized by the University of Milano-Bicocca.

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (December)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Euro Area Current Account (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Final (December)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Spain Balance of Trade (November)

·       Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech

·       Italy Current Account (November)

·       Belarus GDP (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (December)

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat will begin in Langkawi, Malaysia and runs through January 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Global

·       Today is the Orthodox Christian Feast of the Epiphany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President-elect Trump will hold a rally in Washington, D.C, in advance of his inauguration (tomorrow). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.