Global Calendar: May 9 - 15, 2022

It is going to be a particularly busy week both politically and economically. We are closely watching the Victory Day parade in Moscow on Monday which may give us some further indications of President Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine - and the West. We are also keenly paying attention to the elections in the Philippines which could have a significant impact on overall Indo-Pacific affairs going forward.

Political/Social Events –

• Philippines national elections. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr – son of the late dictator— is favored to win the presidency.  Also up for election: a new Vice President, 12 senators, 300 lower house legislators, and approximately 18,000 other local officials.

• Russia celebrates Victory Day, commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany.

• Mexican President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador to meet with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Havana, Cuba.

• President Biden is expected to sign Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act into law.

• Europe Day is celebrated in Europe, commemorating the 1950 Schuman declaration.

• World Trade Organization (WTO) General Council Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland.

• APEC commences senior Officials Meeting through May 18th in Bangkok, Thailand.

• World Trade Organization’s General Council Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland.

• Australia opens early voting centers for 2022 federal elections.

• Saudi Arabia to host inaugural Future Aviation Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  Saudi leaders hope this helps jump-start efforts to make the Kingdom a major regional airport hub.

• Pulitzer Prize winners and finalists announced, New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Wholesale inventories (Mar), consumer inflation (Mar)

• Japan’s Central Bank monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; FX reserves (Apr), Jibun Bank Services PMIs (Apr), Household Spending figures (Mar)

• China’s balance of trade, exports/imports (Apr)

• South Korea's current account (Mar)

• India GDP growth rate (Apr), inflation rate figures (Apr), GDP growth rate Q1

• Saudi Arabia S&P Global PMI (Apr)

• South Africa FX reserves (Apr), SACCI Business Confidence (Apr)

• France's balance of trade (Mar), current account (Mar), Exports/Imports (Mar)

• UK BBA mortgage rate (Apr), BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr)

• Mexico inflation rate figures (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout

• Canada building permits (Mar)

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden meets with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in Washington DC. The primary focus of discussions is expected to be on assisting Italy and the greater EU with energy needs.

• South Korea holds its presidential inauguration, Seoul, South Korea.

• EU and United Nations hosts Brussels V Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria in Brussels.

• Great Britain’s Queen Elizabeth formally opens British Parliament’s legislative session.

• Russian President Putin expected to hold an economic policy session to discuss the impact of the War on Ukraine on Russia’s economy.

• G-7 Digital Affairs Ministers meet in Dusseldorf, Germany.

• United Nations commences a three-day conference meeting with Sudanese political groups regarding the democratic transition in Khartoum, Sudan.

• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 31st Annual Meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Apr), Redbook (May), API Curide Oil Stock Change (May)

• South Korean Unemployment Rate (Apr)

• Brazil Central Bank Copom Meeting Meetings, Retail Sales (Mar), Current Account (Mar), Foreign Direct Investment (Mar), Bank Lending (Mar)

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Apr), Retail Sales (Mar)

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1, Industrial Production (Mar)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (Mar)

• Italy Industrial Production Mar(

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (May), ZEW Current Conditions (May)

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• EU hosts Cybertech Expo in Brussels (May 11-12)

• EU hosts Madrid Forum (European gas regulatory forum) in Madrid, Spain.

• India celebrates the annual Thrissur Pooram Elephant Festival.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Inflation Rate figures (Apr), MBA Purchase Index (May), MBA Mortgage Application (May), MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate (May), MBA Market Index (May), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May), EIA Crude/Distillate Stocks Change (May), EIA Refinery Crude (May)

• Brazil Inflation Rate (Apr)

• Russia Monetary Policy Report, FX reserves (Apr)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)

• China Inflation figures (Apr), PPI (Apr)

• India Consumer Confidence (Apr)

• Japan Coincident Index (Mar), Leading Economic Index (Mar)

• Germany Inflation rate (Apr), Harmonized Inflation Rate (Apr)

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (Apr)

• Organization Economic  (OECD) presents Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2022

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden hosts ASEAN leaders in Washington, DC (rescheduled from earlier this year).

• G-7 Foreign Ministers meet in Weissenhaus, Germany (through May 14)

• Finland is expected to formally announce its decision on whether to join NATO.

• Commonwealth of Independent States Council of Foreign Ministers meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

• EU-Japan Summit to be held in Tokyo, Japan. Both European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will attend where a coordinated China policy will be a key focus.

• Global COVID-19 Summit to be held in Washington, DC.

• Southeast Asian Games begin in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US PPIs (Apr), Jobless Claims (May), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (May), WASDE Report

• China New Yuan Loans (Apr), Outstanding Loan Growth (Apr), Vehicle Scores (Apr)

• Russia Balance of Trade (Feb & Mar)

• Australia Building Permits (Mar), Private House Approvals (Mar)

• India Retail Sales (Mar), Inflation Rate figures (Apr), Manufacturing Production (Mar)

• Japan Eco Watcher Survey Current (Apr), Central Bank presents “Summary of Opinions” on Monetary Policy Meeting

• UK GDP figures Q1, GDP 3-month avg, Industrial Production (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar), Balance of Trade (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar), Construction Orders (Q1), Business Investment (Q1)

• Germany Current Account (Mar)

• France IEA Oil Market Report

• Mexico Central Bank interest rate decision, Industrial Production (Mar)

• South Africa Mining Production (Mar), Gold Production (Mar), Manufacturing Production (Mar)

• Turkey FX Reserves (May)

• Argentina Inflation figures (Apr)

• South Korea Export/Import figures (Apr)

• Saudi Arabia OPEC Monthly Report

Friday, May 13, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts a trilateral peace meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and with Azerbaijan Foreign Minister in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

• Sweden’s Parliament is expected to debate the country joining NATO.

• G-7 Agriculture Ministers to meet in Germany. Global food security will be the focus of the meeting.

• Russian government expected to announce new list of sanctioned foreign entities and individuals barred from buying Russian products and natural resources.

• Iran hosts the 26th Annual International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Import Prices/Export Prices (Apr), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel. May), Michigan Current Conditions (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (Prel. May), Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (May)

• China Foreign Direct Investment (Apr)

• Russia Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• France Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• Spain Inflation Rate figures (Apr)

• Eurozone Industrial Production (Mar)

• Turkey Industrial Production (Mar), Retail Sales (Mar)

• India Imports/Exports (Apr), Balance of Trade (Apr), FX Reserves (Apr)

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (Mar), FX reserves (May)

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Foreign Ministers hold an informal meeting in Berlin, Germany.

• The 66th Annual Eurovision Song Contest final is held in Turin, Italy.

• Iceland holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• No significant reports/events.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Political/Social Events –

• Lebanon holds parliamentary elections.

• Switzerland holds a referendum on contribution to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency.

• EU-US Trade and Technology Council 2nd meeting held today and tomorrow in France (watch for a possible announcement on a deal for EU-US Privacy Shield replacement).

• Total Lunar Eclipse (“Blood Moon”) will be visible across North and South America as well as parts of Europe and Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia inflation rates (Apr), Wholesale Prices (Apr)

Global Events this Week April 17 - 23, 2022:

This is Fulcrum Macro Advisors weekly calendar of key political and economic events we are watching in the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

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Sunday, April 17, 2022:

Political/Social Events:

• Easter Sunday observed by western Christian faith globally

• The US Navy’s Red Sea Task Force begins operation off the coast of Yemen aimed to patrolling against the threat of Houthi missile and drone attacks against maritime and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) targes.  They will also seek to counter growing drug smuggling and human trafficking.

• U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Affairs Sung Kim travels to South Korea for coordination meetings with South Korean Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs and other senior South Korean officials. 

• Mexico lower house of Congress to consider controversial electricity sector law.

Economic Reports/Events:

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday April 18, 2022:

Political/Social Events – 

• Watch for a “senior” delegation of US officials possibly traveling this week to Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky.

• US Congress out of session this week (they were also out last week for Easter/Passover holiday)

• “Tax Day” in the United States

• China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress to meet to discuss new bills including women’s rights law.

• Global Centre for Traditional Medicine is opened by World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Ghebreyesus in India.

• Sri Lankan delegation meets with International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington to discuss a possible economic support package to assist the country through the current crisis.

•  Zimbabwe celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Markets closed in most of Europe, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa for Easter holiday

• World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings commence (until April 23rd).

• US National Association of Home Builders April Index

• Russia expected to soften cash operations restrictions and allow banks to sell hard currency.

• China GDP for Q1, March growth data, retail sales, fixed assets, property investment, residential property sales

• Canada March housing starts

• Spain trade balance figures

• German Buba Monthly report

• Brazil inflation index

• Tesla plans to resume production at its Gigafactory in Shanghai after 3 weeks of COVID lockdown.

Tuesday April 19, 2022:

Political/Social Events – 

• Sri Lanka’s main opposition party is expected to submit a no-confidence motion again the government and impeachment motion against the President as a result of the ongoing economic crisis.

• NATO begins annual cybersecurity wargames – Operation Locked Shields – in Tallinn, Estonia

• Armenia’s President Nikol Pashinian to travel to Moscow.

• The UN Security Council holds consultations on its mission in Libya.

• African Union holds an expert session on migration, refugees, and internal displaced people.

•  Timor Leste holds second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• IMF releases April 2022 World Economic Outlook

• US building permits (Mar.), housing starts

• China’s People’s Bank of China loan prime rate

• Japan exports/import figures, trade balances, industrial production, capacity utilization figures

• Canada existing home sales (Mar.)

Wednesday 20, 2022: 

Political/Social Events – 

• G-7 Finance Ministers meet in Washington DC to discuss global financial issues including a coordinated response to rising inflation (they are all in Washington for World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings).

• G-20 Finance Ministers meet in Washington DC to discuss global financial issues.

• China holds Boao Forum in Hainan, China.

• Honduras’s former President Juan Orlando Hernandez to be extradited to the US to face trial for drug trafficking charges.

• Democratic Republic of the Congo’s parliament debates proposed electoral reform law.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US March existing home sales, Fed’s Beige Book released, crude oil inventories, gasoline production, heating oil stockpiles

• Japan March trade balance

• Germany March PPI

• Italy February trade balance

•  Eurozone February industrial production, trade balance

•  Canada March CPI

• Russian government expected to submit proposals for raising wages, pensions, and minimum wage; PPIs scheduled to be reported

•  South Africa inflation (Mar)

• Ghana GDP (Q4 and all of 2021)

Thursday, April 21, 2022:

Political/Social Events – 

•  UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit India to discuss Ukraine and trade issues.

• World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Council for Trade in Goods meeting. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Federal Reserve Chair Pro Tempore Jay Powell speaks at the Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to speak at IMF Debate on the Global Economy panel

• US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Apr.), initial jobless claims, leading index (Mar.)

• Russia scheduled to report Central Bank reserves

• Japan CPIs

• France business and manufacturing confidence (Mar.)

• Eurozone CPIs, consumer confidence (Apr.)

• Turkey’s Central Bank monetary policy meeting  

Friday, April 22, 2022:

Political/Social Events – 

• UK-Nigeria trade and Investment Mission Summit in London (Nigeria is seen as possible major supplier of oil/gas to supplement supply to be cut from Russia).

• Kenya’s political parties face deadline to conclude their primaries, present candidates to the Independent Electoral Board and Boundaries Commission for approval.

Economic Reports/Events –

•  Federal Reserve “Black-Out Period” begins in advance of next Open Meeting

• US PMIs, retail sales figures

•  France PMIs

• Germany PMIs

• Eurozone PMIs

• Hong Kong PMIs

•  Japan PMI (Mar.), Jibun Bank PMIs

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr.), retail sales (Mar.)

• Canada industrial production price (Mar.), retail sales (Feb.)

• Mozambique gets S&P Global Ratings assessment

Saturday, April 23, 2022: 

Political/Social Events – 

•  France holds second round of Presidential Elections

•  Slovenia holds National Assembly elections

Economic Reports/Events –

• World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude in Washington DC