Read Around the World in a Weekend April

April 29, 2022

RUSSIA

• Microsoft Blog “The hybrid war in Ukraine”

  Microsoft released a report detailing the relentless and destructive Russian cyberattacks they have observed in a hybrid war against Ukraine, and what we’ve done to help protect Ukrainian people and organizations. Starting just before the invasion, we have seen at least six separate Russia-aligned nation-state actors launch more than 237 operations against Ukraine – including destructive attacks that are ongoing and threaten civilian welfare. The destructive attacks have also been accompanied by broad espionage and intelligence activities. 

• Rand Corporation “Russia’s Tragic Failure to Reform Its Economy”

  Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions will likely devastate Russia's economy. If the country had taken a more productive economic course over the past two decades, it might be looking toward a different future—one in which economic reforms had more tightly integrated Russia with the economically advanced countries, enhanced Russian influence and power, and built global trust. Instead, Russia has cast the West as its enemy, and its influence, power, trust, and reputation are shattered.

• Foreign Affairs “What Does the West Want in Ukraine?”

  Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass asks the question of how success in Ukraine will be defined and argues it needs to be done now – before it is too late.

China

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “US-China Technological ‘Decoupling’: A Strategy and Policy Framework”

  Washington has awakened to find the United States deeply technologically enmeshed with its chief long-term rival. America built those technology ties over many years and for lots of good reasons. China’s tech sector continues to benefit American businesses, universities, and citizens in myriad ways—providing critical skilled labor and revenue to sustain U.S. R&D, for example. But that same Chinese tech sector also powers Beijing’s military build-up, unfair trade practices, and repressive social control. What should we do about this? 

• Rhodium Group “Chinese FDI in Europe: 2021 Update”

  Chinese outbound investment to the rest of the world stalled in 2021. While overall global FDI rebounded strongly, Chinese outbound FDI edged up by just 3 percent to USD 114 billion (EUR 96 billion). Meanwhile, China’s global outbound M&A activity slipped in 2021 to a 14-year low, with completed M&A transactions totaling just EUR 20 billion, down 22 percent from an already weak 2020.

India

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “What is in Our Interest”: India and the Ukraine War”

  As Russia’s war in Ukraine unfolds, India’s national interests have so far dictated a position of formal neutrality. Here are the factors New Delhi faces in balancing its foreign policy priorities.

• Brookings Institution Podcast “Why globalization is shifting in favor of India, not China”

  Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at Brown University’s Watson Institute and Center for Contemporary South Asia, and former chief economic advisor to the Government of India, talks with host David Dollar about a range of trade and foreign relations issues India faces. In particular, he explains why globalization is shifting in India’s favor rather than China’s, how India views trade relations with China, Russia, and the West, and prospects for continued good relations with the United States, especially as India takes a more neutral stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Pakistan

• The Diplomat Podcast  “What’s Driving Pakistan’s Political Crisis?”

  Pakistan’s political arena is in turmoil. Prime Minister Imran Khan, facing a no-confidence vote, made a last-ditch attempt to avoid his fate by dissolving Parliament altogether, alleging a foreign plot headed by the U.S. to oust him. The Supreme Court intervened, allowing the vote to proceed, but Khan and his PTI are refusing to recognize the new government. Most PTI lawmakers resigned, leaving Pakistan’s National Assembly with 100 open seats. Meanwhile, the Pakistani military, the “hidden hand” behind national politics, has attempted to remain neutral – but its lack of support helped crown Khan’s replacement.

Lebanon

• Carnegie Middle East Center “Resurrecting Arafat in Beirut?”

  Hamas, with Hezbollah’s help, is building up a military presence in Lebanon, whose ultimate consequences could be devastating.

Iran

•  Carnegie Sada “The Geopolitics of the Iran-Qatar Electricity Grid Connection”

  Last February, during Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to Qatar, the two countries agreed to connect electricity grids. Currently, Iran’s electricity network is connected to Iraq, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For Iran, this is a step towards strengthening energy diplomacy, but without a change in Iran’s foreign policy — that is, without the removal of sanctions and attracting foreign investment — it cannot use its full potential in the energy sector and, ultimately, will not be able to increase its influence on the international stage.  

Africa

• Council on Foreign. Relations “How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa’s Energy Transition”

  The Russian invasion of Ukraine will shift the geopolitics of decarbonization, with particularly stark implications for energy politics in Africa.

• Foreign Affairs “Rebels Without a Cause: The New Face of African Warfare”

  In the past, most armed groups on the continent were focused on seeking to topple governments or secede and found new countries.  But the new face of many African conflicts today is one where those taking up arms are more likely to do so as a means of bargaining over resources.

Latin America/Caribbean

• IMF Blog “Latin America Faces Unusually High Risks”

  The War in Ukraine, higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, economic decelerations of key trading partners, and social discontent may dim growth prospects.

• Center for Strategic and International Studies “The Caribbean in the Crossfire”

  Between Covid-19, Narcotics, China, and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, the Caribbean is facing unprecedented challenges – all of which should be of maximum concern to the United States.

• Americas Quarterly “Latin America Doesn’t Want a New Cold War”

  Regional governments should take steps to ensure they are “not once again a battleground for larger powers,” an Argentine scholar writes.