Update: An Inflection Point in the Ukraine War After a Russian Missile Hits Poland?

It turns out the Polish Government's initial assessment was incorrect. Partially incorrect. The missile, which hit the town of Przewodow in Eastern Poland and killed two civilians, was not fired by Russian Forces from Russia. But it was a Russian missile that Ukrainian Air Defense Forces apparently fired as part of their defensive actions against the more than 100 missiles Russian Forces fired at civilian targets in cities across western Ukraine yesterday. It was the most missiles fired by Russian Forces to date into Ukraine since the war started, but we would quickly note Ukrainian Air Defense Forces destroyed 77 of the Russian missiles and 11 Russian “Kamakazie” drones (which are mostly supplied by Iran).

As more details emerge about how exactly such a tragic misfiring could have occurred, we continue to believe, as we wrote yesterday, the tragic event last night will spur Western governments and NATO to reassess and ultimately upgrade the anti-missile and anti-drone missile systems as well as re-opening the debate over sending tanks and fighter planes to Ukraine.

The point we have heard today among US government sources is that Ukrainian Forces are forced to use Russian missiles, which they are not well-trained to operate and are, more often than not, recently captured from Russian Forces on the battlefield, as a means to defend themselves. As one Washington source told us this morning, "desperate times require desperate measures, which means tragic circumstances can result, as we saw in Poland yesterday. The US needs to re-think what we are sending Ukraine and how to speed up their delivery."

This point was reinforced this afternoon by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley,  when they briefed the press on the situation in Poland.   Milley spoke of the need for an “integrated air and missile defense system for Ukraine.” Achieving what Milley called for would clearly require supplying more advanced weaponry to Ukraine.

But what more can NATO send? Quality and quantity are the challenges. In terms of quantity, stockpiles of many main-stay anti-missile/anti-drone weapons are dangerously low in the US. This includes Stingers and NASAMS, which we wrote about yesterday. And while quantity is a growing challenge, so is the ability to link all these Western systems together so they can communicate and more effectively respond to Russian attacks.

In terms of quality, a good example is Patriot Missiles, considered the best air defense system out there but which the US does not provide to Ukraine. Why not? The US Defense Department has said doing so would require US forces to enter Ukraine to operate them because they are so incredibly sophisticated to operate with state-of-the-art radar and command centers. For a US soldier to become proficient in maintaining a Patriot system, they must undergo a minimum of 53 weeks of training.

Nevertheless, once Poland and NATO conclude their investigation of the missile strike, we anticipate Ukraine ramping up its bids to get more advanced weaponry. And this means the thin line NATO is walking with Russia to avoid the war expanding further will become harder to walk.

A Patriot Missile Long-Range Air-Defense System (Source: www.army-technology.com)