U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

October 2 - 6, 2023

The coming week will be critical for the future of the Consumer Financial Protection Board (CFPB) as the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear oral arguments over whether the agency is constitutionally legal.  The core of the case, which was brought by groups representing the payday lending industry, questions whether the way the CFPB is funded (which comes from the Federal Reserve instead of Congressional appropriations) is fatally flawed.   In other words, the Supreme Court could rule the CFPB is unconstitutionally structured and either gets Congress to restructure its funding or cease to exist.

Also, this past Friday, the Supreme Court agreed to take up a case related to the 2011 Federal Reserve Board’s rule regulating swipe fees for debit cards.  The lawsuit argues the fees set by the Fed are arbitrary and too high.  It may allow the Justices to look further at the Durbin Amendment, which granted the Fed further power over credit card companies and their fee structures.

Turning to the regulatory agencies, no significant regulatory proposals are being considered this coming week.  But there will be a lot of speeches about regulatory issues, particularly by Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, who will give two significant speeches on bank regulation.  The CFTC will see most of their commissioners and Chair Benham give major policy speeches this coming week, too.  

Finally, we will be closely watching a joint appearance by Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn and Justice Department Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter on antitrust enforcement and what the two seek to achieve by the new merger guidelines they recently released.

Below is the full regulatory calendar as we see it for the coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

House of Representatives 

• There are no hearings in the House Financial Services Committee currently scheduled.

U.S. Senate

• There are no hearings in the Senate Banking Committee currently scheduled.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board

• October 2, 1:00 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.” at the Forecasters Club Luncheon, Cornell Club in New York.

• October 4, 10:25 a.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “The Role of Research, Data, and Analysis in Banking Reforms” at the 2023 Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Missouri.

• October 5, 12:15 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Cyber Risk in the Banking Sector” at the Large and Foreign Banking Organizations Cyber Conference: Managing Cyber Risk from the C-Suite, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio.

• October 6, 12:00 p.m. EST: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a keynote speech at the Brookings Institution, “Making American’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century” in Washington, D.C.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• October 3, 2:00 p.m.: The SEC and the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board will host an event entitled “Your TSP Account – What to Think About When Nearing Retirement or Considering Leaving the Government”  to share information about TSP accounts and things to consider when retiring or leaving federal service.  The event will be done virtually.  The first will be at the University of North Georgia and the Second at Dalton State College in Georgia.

• October 4, 8:00 a.m.: The SEC is partnering with the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) and the Georgia Secretary of State for two joint investor roundtables.

• October 5, 8:00 a.m.: The SEC will hold a closed meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• October 4, 1:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Advisory Committee on Community Banking holds a virtual meeting, beginning at 1 p.m., of the Minority Depository Institutions Subcommittee on "economic trends and key challenges and opportunities and the work of the banking industry and private entities that support MDIs and Community Development Financial Institutions."

• October 5, 9:00 a.m. EST: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the FDIC Advisory Committee on Community Banking for a discussion of issues that are of interest to community banks, including examination policies and procedures, credit and lending practices, deposit insurance assessments, insurance coverage, and regulatory compliance. 

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• October 3, 8:30 a.m. EST: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency holds a meeting of the Mutual Savings Association Advisory Committee to advise the OCC on regulatory or other changes the OCC may make to ensure the health and viability of mutual savings associations.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• October 2, 10:20 a.m. EST/Chicago: Chair Rostin Behnam will deliver the keynote address and participate in a fireside chat at the FIA Expo 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

• October 2, 2:50 EST: Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate on a panel titled “Tokenization and Its Role in Accelerating Collateral Management” at FIA Expo 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

• October 2, 11:10 a.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will participate in a fireside chat with former CFTC Chair J. Christopher Giancarlo at the Fordham Law Blockchain Regulatory Symposium in New York.

• October 4, 4:50 a.m. EST/9:50 a.m. London time) Commissioner Goldsmith Romero will participate on the virtual panel, Carbon Credits—questioning the quality today, the potential tomorrow, at The Economist’s Sustainability Week: Countdown to COP28.

• October 4, 11:15 a.m. EST: Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a fireside chat at the 2023 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Financial Markets Group Fall Conference, Chicago, Illinois.

• October 4, 12:00 p.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will provide opening remarks at a CFTC Office of Customer Education and Outreach and Office of Technology Innovation virtual event on social media investment fraud and artificial intelligence for World Investor Week.

• October 4, 12:00 p.m. EST: The CFTC’s Office of Customer Education and Outreach and Office of Technology Innovation will host Technology and Fraud: Stopping Scams in a Digital World, a free virtual event for financial educators, innovators, regulators, and anyone with interest in these issues, in recognition of World Investor Week – Oct 2-9. Experts will discuss social media-driven investment fraud and the role artificial intelligence (AI) may play in accelerating online fraud.

• October 5, 1:00 p.m. EST: The CFTC”s Global Markets Advisory Committee meets.  Their agenda includes: Presentation from the GMAC's Global Market Structure Subcommittee on the subcommittee's workstreams involving U.S. Treasury market reforms, global standards and best practices for market volatility controls and circuit breakers, improving liquidity across asset classes, international alignment of trading and clearing obligations to address market fragmentation; Consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Technical Issues Subcommittee on the Subcommittee's workstreams involving international standardization and amalgamation of trade reporting for swaps market oversight, global coordination of market events, improving efficiencies in post-trade processes, and consider recommendations from the Subcommittee on such workstreams; Presentation from the GMAC's Digital Asset Markets Subcommittee on the subcommittee's workstreams involving industry standards and best practices for tokenized asset markets, the regulation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and utility tokens, and identification of other issues to address in digital finance and tokenization of assets, non-financial activities and Web3, and blockchain technology and consider recommendations from the subcommittee on such workstreams.

• October 5, 11:00 a.m. EST: Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will provide a keynote speech on Emerging Carbon Markets at the Baker Institute Annual Energy Summit in Houston, Texas.

• October 7, 9:15 a.m. EST: Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will deliver a keynote address at the North American Millers’ Association 2023 Annual Meeting in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• October 6, 9:00 a.m. EST: Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, delivers morning keynote remarks at the Brookings Institution’s “Making America’s Payment System Work for a Digital Century” Conference in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

• October 3-4: The National Credit Union Administration holds its MDI Symposium. the event aims to support minority depository institutions and will be held at the NCUA headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• October 4, 3:00 p.m. EST: The Federal Trade Commission staff will host a virtual roundtable discussion to better understand the impact of generative artificial intelligence on creative fields.  FTC Chair Lina Kahn gives opening remarks.

• October 5, 10:00 a.m. EST: FTC Chair Lina Kahn and DoJ Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter will discuss antitrust enforcement at the Brookings Institution in Washington. The event can be attended in person or watched virtually.

• October 5, 1:30 p.m. EST: The FTC and DoJ jointly hold a Public Workshop on Merger Guidelines virtually.

Farm Credit Administration

• No public events or meetings are currently scheduled.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Think Tanks

• October 2, 1:00 p.m. EST: The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1 p.m., on "How Risky Are the Banks Now? What Regulatory Reforms Make Sense?"

• October 6, 9:00 a.m. EST: The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "Making America's Payment System Work for a Digital Century." Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, delivers morning keynote remarks, and Christopher Waller, member of the Federal Reserve Board, delivers afternoon keynote remarks.

Trade Associations

• October 2, 9 a.m. EST: The Institute for International Finance holds an online webinar entitled “Unlocking Private Climate Finance for Emerging Markets.”  

• October 8-10, The American Bankers Association Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Reccomended Weekend Reads

September 22 - 24, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

International Economy

• “Irrational Expectations: Long-Term Challenges of Diversification Away from China”  The Rhodium Group

  Some observers assert that diversification away from China is already well underway. Others caution that global value chains are simply too integrated to untangle, and the Biden administration’s de-risking policies are unlikely to succeed. Which camp is right? This new research note explores these issues using a wide range of available data points.

• “The Global Economy’s Real Enemy is Geopolitics, Not Protectionism”   Dani Rodrick/Project Syndicate

  The author, a Harvard Professor of International Economy, argues that what some decry as protectionism and mercantilism is really a rebalancing toward addressing important national issues. The biggest risk to the global economy stems not from this broader reorientation – which should be welcomed – but from a Sino-American rivalry that threatens to drag everyone down.

Indo-Pacific 

• “What Do We Know About Chinese Industrial Subsidies?”  CEPII (Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationals, Paris, France)

  While Chinese industrial subsidies have been one of the key drivers of international trade tensions, the details of the phenomenon itself are often overlooked.  Reviewing the existing datasets and methodologies used to assess Chinese public support, this Policy Brief tries to bring more clarity on what is known, and what is not.  The most frequently used datasets in the literature are dated and/or largely incomplete, and find limited industrial support compared to more specific analyses.  To further complicate things, the new development model pursued by the current leadership seems to champion the idea of “guiding” economic entities to align with Party-State objectives, which, by diffusing public intervention throughout the economy, makes it more difficult to assess the scale of subsidies.  The Chinese authorities’ highly structured and detailed communication and policy planning offers alternative metrics to assess the distribution and evolution of public support to the industry, enabling a complementary approach to triangulate the actual subsidies to industrial production in China.

The Arctic 

• “Arctic Geopolitics: The Svalbard Archipelago”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The Arctic is increasingly viewed as an arena for power projection and spillover from conflicts elsewhere. In this regard, the Svalbard archipelago is an important case study because it has economic, scientific, political, and security implications for states in the High North, the United States, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance. Svalbard’s unique status as a sovereign territory of Norway with provisions for foreign nationals, Russia’s presence on the territory, and its interests at sea, as well as the archipelago’s proximity to critical Russian military locations, make Svalbard a potential geopolitical flash point. This brief examines the geopolitics of Svalbard and the security implications for Norway, the United States, and NATO.

Russia’s War on Ukraine

• “Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine”  The Rand Corporation

  Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has imposed devastating losses on the Russian military and on Ukraine's military and civilian populations, but both sides have avoided certain escalatory options. Putin has been restrained for several reasons, including fear of NATO's military response, an information flow that filters out negative facts, promoting the view that Russia can win a protracted war, and incremental increases in NATO support for Ukraine.  The fact that Putin has avoided certain escalatory options to date does not mean that he will avoid them in the future. The Kremlin's control of Russia has become brittle, potentially encouraging Putin to consider options to shorten the war.  This paper examines what the risk is to Putin taking up any of these options.

• “Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Russia’s termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BGSI) was a main topic of discussion in United Nations General Assembly meetings this past week. The United Nations and others continue to urge Russia to rejoin the deal, while Russia declares its willingness to rejoin if its demands are met. It likely has no such intention. Continuing to block Ukraine’s agricultural exports is in Russia’s economic and political interest, while Russia manipulates its own food exports to appease food-importing countries. And its exit from the deal has not contributed to a global food price spike—for now.

• “Perseverance and Adaption: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive in Perspective”  War on the Rocks

  The outlook for Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive increasingly hinges on the attritional nature of the war. Which side has more reserves? Who can better manage their combat power in a prolonged standoff? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow Michael Kofman, who recently returned from the Ukrainian front lines, has written a fascinating account of what it will take to sustain Ukraine’s war effort. Kofman outlines how Washington should support Kyiv’s preferred approach to pushing the Russians back and what the West can learn from this summer’s experience to help Ukraine improve its ability to conduct operations at scale in the future.

Chart of the Week

Looking for a Job?  Federal, State, and Local Governments Are Hiring… A Lot

As the Federal Reserve raises rates, employment opportunities begin to taper off, and corporations begin to hold up on new hires (or so the Fed hopes), there remains one place that is still hiring: Federal, state, and local governments.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 327,000 new positions have been created among government agencies.  The Wall Street Journal (which produced the excellent chart below), estimates” that is close to 1/5 of all new American jobs created in the first eight months of the year.  In contrast, public-sector jobs accounted for 5 percent of employment during the equivalent period last year [2022].”

According to the Journal, most of the hiring at the state and local levels are filling backfill jobs in teaching and police departments where many public servants quit during COVID.