Russia/Ukraine Tensions Update: Did You Hear The One About How the Irish Fishermen Defeated the Russian Navy?

As the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine ramps up, there are a number of sub-stories that are largely being overlooked by the press – and some of them potentially have significant impact on markets.  We take note of them because it is the little things during a tense time like this that can either ignite an actual conflict or result in massive negative impacts once an invasion begins.  

A good example: News today that Ukrainian police broke up a ring of provocateurs (suspected of being directed by Russian intelligence) planning to launch riots in five Ukrainian cities using more than 5,000 paid protesters.  This likely goes to warnings by the Biden Administration several weeks ago of possible subversive Russian activities inside Ukraine in advance of a possible invasion.

Another significant threat emerged several weeks ago when the Russian Navy announced their intention to hold large naval “training” exercises in the Atlantic Ocean which would include live-fire missile launches.  There are agreements between NATO and Russia in place that each entity tell the other in advance when and where they intend to hold such exercises to ensure there are no misunderstandings of an actual military action being launched.

What raised the eyebrows and concerns of NATO officials  was where th Russian Naval exercises were going to take place:  In international waters off the coast of Ireland – a highly unusual location for the Russian Navy to choose.  Of particular concern to NATO is what lies below the waters where the Russians declared they would hold the exercises – the largest concentration of submerged communications lines between Europe and the Western Hemisphere including all cables going directly to Washington DC or New York (see map).  The risk, of course, is if an invasion did occur, Russian Naval Forces could damage or destroy these critical communications lines between the EU and the US – as well as disrupt communications lines from Ukraine to the US that would travel via these cables.

 On January 23rd, the Irish Government issued strong warnings to all ships planning to sail through the area in the coming two weeks – including to the large Irish fishing industry.  The Irish government strongly protested to the Russian government but were told by Russia’s Ambassador to Ireland “There is nothing to be disturbed, concerned, or anguished about and I have extensively explained that to our Irish colleagues.”

 But the Irish fishing industry was having none of it, not willing to allow an intimidation tactic by Moscow to succeed, and also risk losing more than one million tons of fishery because of the exercises.  

 On January 25th, the collective Irish fishing industry announced they intended to make a coordinated effort to head off the Russian fleet.  “Our boats will be going out to that area on the first of February to go fishing.  When one boat needs to return to port, another will head out so there is a continuous presence on the water,” announced Patrick Murphy, Chief Executive Officer of the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organization. 

Literally, Irish fishermen were prepared to risk their lives by sailing into the midst of a large, live-fire Russian Naval exercise it in hope of getting the Russians to leave.

The result?  Victory for the Irish fisherman and a major risk to global communications systems averted.  On January 29th, the Russian Defense Ministry announced they had decided “as a gesture of goodwill, to relocate the exercise by the Russian Navy elsewhere.”