Read Around the World Over the Weekend: January 22, 2022
Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world. We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun. Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.
Russia
> Center for Strategic and International Studies “Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine”
If peace talks ultimately fail, the Russian military has several options to advance into Ukraine through northern, central, and southern invasion routes. But a Russian attempt to seize and hold territory will not necessarily be easy and will likely be impacted by challenges from weather, urban combat, command and control, logistics, and the morale of Russian troops and the Ukrainian population.
> Adam Tooze Chartbook “Putin’s Challenge to Western Hegemony”
As NATO works to defuse the tensions on the Russian border to Ukraine, the economic historian looks at the framework analyzing the intersection of geopolitics and economics and the rise of Russia as a challenger.
> Atlantic Council “Russia’s Other European Invasion”
As Western policymakers focus on a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, they are turning a blind eye to another invasion: the capture of European elites. From London to Athens and far beyond, bankers, lawyers, lobbyists, and former officials have all been snapped up by the Kremlin and its allies. While Russian tanks mass on the Ukrainian border, interests linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s predatory regime are amassing influence in capital cities across the continent.
> Carnegie Middle East Center “Moscow’s Mercenary Ways”
In an interview, Ruslan Trad, a journalist and expert on Syria, hybrid warfare, and mercenaries, describes how private military companies advance the Kremlin’s agenda in the Arab world.
Germany
> Der Spiegel “Germany Has a Russia Problem”
There is a clear and present danger of a war of aggression in Europe, but the German government doesn’t seem to have recognized it yet. What other explanation could there be for Berlin’s inexplicable paralysis in its approach to Russia? The problem is primarily a product of the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Sweden
> Defense One “’War is Coming’: Mysterious TikTok Videos are Scaring Sweden’s Children”
In Sweden, an unusual anxiety is afflicting children and young teenagers leading them to ask their parents if Russia is about to attack their country. Where did they get that idea? TikTok. “War is coming,” say some of the videos that the social-media platform is feeding to young Swedes.
Turkey
> Foreign Policy Research Institute “Turkey’s Response to the Russia-Ukraine Crisis”
As Russia increasingly looks poised to invade Ukraine, Turkey is becoming more and more nervous about the collateral damage. What does Turkey think of the tensions? What will they do? What can they do?
Africa
> Chatham House “What 2022 Has in Store for Africa”
2022 is already shaping up to be a year of mixed fortunes for Africa if the events of the first week are a harbinger. Will we see NATO more involved in the region as Russia attempts to increase its military engagement in the region?
> European Council on Foreign Relations “Gateway to Growth: How the European Green Deal can strengthen Africa’s and Europe’s economies”
In much of Africa, growth is being driven by “green energy innovation ecosystems” which combine telecoms, digital platforms, solar power, and the internet of things. European corporations risk losing out on business opportunities and political influence if they fail to integrate their services and infrastructure into these emerging ecosystems – and tremendous opportunities if they do engage in a larger way.
> Brookings Institute “Biodiversity conservation, zoonotic diseases, and human security in Africa two years into COVID-19”
the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed how vulnerable conservation and income for local communities and protected areas are to downturns in tourism. Brookings assembled a panel as part of their Africa Security Initiative to look at how COVID has affected conservation in Africa. They also looked at if there has been a genuine transformation toward “One Health” – looking at the link between biodiversity conservation and human security.
China
> Georgetown University Center for Security and Emerging Technology “Chinese Contributions to High-Impact AI Research”
In the past decade, Chinese researchers have become increasingly prolific authors of highly cited AI publications, approaching the global research share of their U.S. counterparts. However, some analysts question the impact of Chinese publications; are they well respected internationally, and do they cover important topics? In this data brief, the authors build on prior analyses of top AI publications to provide a richer understanding of the two countries’ contributions to high-impact AI research.
> Foreign Policy “China’s Continent-Spanning Trains are Running Half Empty”
Beijing is funding dozens of new rail routes as part of its global ambitions — and losing money on everyone. So what’s the long game?
> The New Yorker “How the Chinese Language Got Modernized”
Faced with technological and political upheaval, reformers decided that Chinese would need to change in order to survive.
> US State Department. “Limits in the Seas: People’s Republic of China’s Maritime Claims in the South China Seas”
The US laid out its most detailed case yet against what it calls Beijing's "unlawful" claims in the South China Sea, rejecting both the geographic and historic bases for Beijing’s claims. In a 47-page research paper, the State Department said China had no basis under international law for claims that have put Beijing on a collision course with the Philippines, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations.
Latin America
> Washington Post “Millennial politicians are shaking up Latin America. Here’s how they differ from the old guard”
Generational turnover is getting rid of ‘los mismos de siempre’ and making politics – and economics and markets - more unpredictable.
> Center for Strategic and International Studies “Preparing for Deterioration of the Latin American and Strategic Environment”
The report suggests Latin America and the Caribbean are currently on the precipice of a downward spiral into populist authoritarian governments, economic collapse, social unrest, and expanded presence and influence of China across the hemisphere. Although those dynamics are just now becoming clear, numerous reinforcing dynamics are driving the strategic environment of the region in a very troubling direction. For the moment, the skies of the region are still mostly clear, but the storm is coming.
Middle East
> Carnegie Middle East Center “Abu Dhabi’s Dilemma”
The drone and missile attacks by Houthi rebels on the United Arab Emirates January 17 will force the UAE to make one of two choices, neither of them desirable.
United States
> The War Room “Lost on the Next Battlefield: The Need to Replace GPS”
A revolution is needed with regard to the US military’s use of the Global Positioning System (GPS). US military planners needs to focus its efforts on modernizing the way it delivers position, navigation, and timing (PNT). Without a fundamental shift away from the Global Positioning System (GPS), the DoD will not be competitive in near-peer conflicts.
> Gallup “US Political Party Preferences Shifted Greatly During 2021”
On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%). However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.
Climate Change/Energy
> Center for Strategic and International Studies “Safeguarding Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition”
The transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources will depend on critical minerals. The consumption of these minerals could increase sixfold by 2050, according to one scenario by the International Energy Agency. In that world, the trade in energy-related resources will consist largely of critical minerals rather than oil and natural gas. By value, this market could top $400 billion, exceeding the value of all the coal extracted in 2020.
