Read Around the World Over the Weekend: January 14, 2022
Russia/Ukraine Tensions
> Rand Corporation “Russia’s Limit of Advance”
Rand has conducted significant research and conducted “war games” analyzing what would happen if Russia actually invaded Ukraine. Here is their latest assessment.
> Carnegie Moscow Center “How Do Russians Feel About a War with Ukraine?”
One of the most asked questions in recent weeks has been whether Russia will attack Ukraine, despite a slight lessening of tensions in the wake of last week’s video call between the Russian and U.S. presidents. But how would ordinary Russians respond to a war with neighboring Ukraine?
> Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty “How Long Could Ukraine Hold Out Against a New Russian Invasion?”
RFE/RL dives into trying to get a sense of how hard it would be for Russia to invade Ukraine – and how long Ukraine could defend itself.
> Real Clear World “God, Putin, and Ukraine”
The author points out that "If God had built mountains in Ukraine then the great expanse of flatland that is the North European Plain would not be such encouraging territory from which to attack Russia repeatedly.” As it is, Putin has no choice: he must at least attempt to control the flatlands to the west. So it is with all nations, big or small. The landscape imprisons their leaders, giving them fewer choices and less room to maneuver than you might think."
Kazakhstan
> Foreign Policy Research Institute “’A Bright Path’ Forward or a Grim Dead End? The Political Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in Kazakhstan”
Markets focus on Russia’s interests in Kazakhstan in the wake of the rebellion there. But China – which shares a border with the country – has large investments in the country, much of it conducted via the Belt & Road Initiative. This report looks at China’s efforts and what is next for China’s efforts in the country.
India
> The Print “Kazakhstan unrest matters to India”
The only silver lining for India in the situation in Kazakhstan is that it will possibly complicate China’s plans for Central Europe.
> Foreign Policy “Pentagon Worries About Chinese Buildup Near India”
China’s new airports and highways near the border have put officials on edge.
> Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter “Indian Ocean Step-Up”
India is in the driver’s seat to build new security structures in the region, but it can’t do it alone.
China
> Atlantic Council “What is ‘Common Prosperity’ and How Will it Change China and Its Relationship with the World?”
A new question is being asked in China and around the world: what is “Common Prosperity” and how will it change China? “Common Prosperity” (共同富裕, Gongtong fuyu), a phrase first used by Mao Zedong decades earlier but rarely heard until Xi Jinping mentioned it in a speech early this year, has quickly become the official Chinese slogan of choice, defining the new era of politically led economic development emerging in China.
> Center for a New American Security “China’s Digital Currency and Authoritarianism”
China is the first major economy to develop and implement a central bank currency (CBDC). It has many names – Digital Currency/Electronic Payments, the digital yuan, or the electronic Chinese Yuan. This brief explains what Beijing is doing and why.
Middle East
> The Circuit “The General Who Coined the Abraham Accords”
How a two-star US General from Puerto Rico earned the trust of the Emiratis to later help broker the Abraham Accords – and name it, too.
> The Middle East Institute “The High Price of Iran’s Anti-Israel Policies”
Recently, the Iranian regime’s anti-Israel campaign scored a goal on its own net, so to speak, when various hardline regime news outlets targeted former Iranian national soccer team captain Mehdi Mahdavikia for intense criticism. Mahdavikia's crime? Wearing a jersey at an international exhibition soccer match arranged by FIFA that featured the flags of all 211 FIFA members, including Israel’s. But the backlash to this criticism inside Iran was big and loud showing once again the regime shooting itself in the foot as it attacks Israel and raising further internal political tensions.
Africa
> South African Institute for Security Studies “Sudan’s transition: What are the chances of success?”
Racked by civil war and intense bloodshed, peaceful mass protests led to the military ouster of Omar al-Bashir, ending his 30-year rule in 2019. A power-sharing agreement between the military and civilians has given much to hope for but analysis of the achievements and challenges of the transition so far show that while noteworthy progress has been made, significant challenges remain.
> National Geographic “Giraffe populations are rising, giving new hope to scientists”
Giraffe numbers are 20 percent higher than in 2015, an increase linked to conservation efforts and more accurate survey data. What does this say for the greater preservation effort in Africa?
United Kingdom
> Chatham House “The UK’s Kleptocracy Problem”
The growth of London as a center for financial and professional services coincided with the collapse of the USSR and the rise of post-Soviet kleptocracies in the 1990s. These states and their elites have since become a major source of clients for UK-based services firms and of investors in UK assets. The challenge now is, according to this report, that servicing post-Soviet elites weakens the rule of law in the UK.
Germany
> Fast Company “Berlin is planning a car-free area larger than Manhattan”
The citizen-driven plan that the city is considering now would create the largest car-free area in the city anywhere in the world.
Climate Change/Energy Policy
> Quartz “Maersk could push the entire shipping industry to move up its climate goals”
Maersk, the world’s second-largest shipping line, pledged on Jan. 12 to make its business carbon neutral by 2040 instead of its previously stated goal of 2050 – making their goals the most aggressive in the shipping industry. In doing so, they are likely to push the entire shipping industry to embrace more aggressive climate goals.
> Washington Post “The Race to Defuse Congo’s Carbon Bomb”
At around 56,000 square miles (about the size of Iowa) and more than 30 feet deep in places, the peatland Congo shares with its neighbor, the Republic of Congo, holds at least as much carbon as the whole world currently emits in three years of burning fossil fuels.
> International Energy Agency “Coal 2021: Analysis and Forecast to 2024”
The 2020 collapse in coal demand turned out to be smaller than anticipated – in fact, coal-fired power generation will have reached an all-time high by the end.
United States
> The American Enterprise Institute “The Exit Polls: A History and Trends Over Time 1972-2020”
Since the 1970’s when they were first used nationally, exit polls have been seen as an invaluable tool to understand voters’ views. This report examines just how useful they were and are today.
Economics
> The Economist “The $28 trillion global reach of Asian finance”
As private savings have built up in East and South-Asia, its financiers now wield heft in far-flung asset markets.
> Bain & Company “Young Workers Are Increasingly Overwhelmed”
Younger generations, especially in advanced economies, are under mounting stress that spills over into their work lives.
Global Security Policy/Intelligence Issues
> The Atlantic “How Fake Spies Ruin Real Intelligence”
Espionage-themed entertainment is influencing policymakers, from soldiers fighting on the front lines to justices sitting on the nation’s highest court. Sorry, Jason Bourne and Carrie Mathison…
> World Economic Forum “Global Risks Report 2022”
In their annual report, the WEF shares the results of their latest Global Risks Perception Survey.
