Read Around the World Over The Weekend: February 25, 2022

Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world.  We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun.  Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.

Russia

>      Morning Consult/Politico “Tracking Global Opinion on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”

Views in the US and EU of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is as you would expect: Highly negative. But key metrics of Russian sentiment suggest that Russians remain unfazed by the threat of sanctions and the newly launched war with Ukraine, though opinions could shift in the coming weeks if domestic anti-war protests continue.

>      Harvard Business Review “The Cybersecurity Risks of an Escalating Russia-Ukraine Conflict”

With the looming threat of increased conflict in Ukraine, businesses around the world should be preparing now. Corporate security and intelligence teams have said they’re seeing an increase in cyber probes, and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the European Central Bank have both issued warnings about potential Russian cyberattacks.  What should companies be doing?  Here is a review of actions to take now.

>      International Institute for Strategic Studies “If New Looks Could Kill: Russia’s Military Capability in 2022”

The deployment of and subsequent deployment of Russian troops and equipment to invade Ukraine has led to much attention on Russia’s armed forces and alarm over Moscow’s intentions towards Ukraine.  Just how good is it?

>      Vantage Point North “Quick Guide to Identifying the Russian Tanks Part 1”

This blog offers a quick guide the layman in understanding Russia’s battle tank models.  As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming. 

>      Jamestown Foundation “Demographic Shifts Change Power Relations Within and Between Post-Soviet States”

Russia’s demographic decline reflects not only its falling birthrates and rising per capita deaths but also massive emigration. Moscow has attempted to compensate by promoting immigration, but so far, that attempt has been only partially successful and is likely to be less so in the coming years. Indeed, Russia’s population decline has been, above all, the story of the demographic collapse of the Russian nation. Last year, residents of the Russian Federation decreased by over a million as the result both of more deaths (partially due to COVID-19) and fewer births and the increasingly massive exodus of Russians to live and work abroad. 

China

>      The New Yorker “What is China Learning from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?”

Xi Jinping’s unusually close bond with Vladimir Putin puts China in risky company.

>      Center for Strategic & International Studies “Shadow Risk”

What Crisis Simulations Reveal about the Dangers of Deferring U.S. Responses to China’s Gray Zone Campaign against Taiwan.

United States

>      War on the Rocks Podcast “What Old Mental Maps Reveal About Competition Today”

Historian Hal Brands talks about his new book, Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great Power Rivalry Today.  While the  geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China is frequently described as “a new Cold War,” Brands goes far deeper than a mere surface comparison to illuminate the ways in which the Cold War experience may help to guide American strategists in the competition with China and Russia.

>      Gallup “US Public Sees Russia-/Ukraine Conflict as Critical Threat”

Before the invasion of Ukraine, amid rising tensions between Russia and the West, 52% of Americans see the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests. That's a change from 2015, after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, when less than half of U.S. adults, 44%, thought it posed that serious a threat.  Those numbers are likely to spike since the invasion.

>      Knight Foundation “Americans’ Attention to National News Lowest in Four Years”

Fewer Americans are paying attention to national news now than at any time since early 2018. In December 2021, a third of Americans (33%) said they pay “a great deal” of attention to national news. This percentage is the lowest in Gallup/Knight Foundation’s trend and a substantial drop from the 54% of Americans who said they paid a great deal of attention to national news in November of 2020. 

Mexico

 >      Foreign Affairs “America Must Not Ignore Mexico’s Democratic Decay”

From the outset of his administration, Mexico President López Obrador has, in the view of many analysts, presented a vision of an imperial  presidency and the whittling away of the checks and balances and autonomous institutions that a generation of Mexicans painstakingly spent several decades building.

Bolivia

 >      Wilson Center “Can Bolivia Jump-Start its Lithium Industry?”

Bolivia is home to the world’s largest lithium resources. Together with Chile and Argentina, the so-called “lithium triangle” holds almost 60 percent of the planet’s known lithium deposits, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But while Chile and Argentina are among the top global producers, alongside Australia and China, Bolivia has yet to produce lithium in commercial quantities.

Broader Middle East

>      Center for Strategic & International Studies “Hedging, Hunger, and Hostilities: The Middle East after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”

The effects of Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine will ripple throughout the Middle East and North Africa. It will reveal new geostrategic alignments, compound food insecurity, and threaten to spark new military confrontations. If the confrontation between Russia and much of the rest of the world is prolonged, as seems likely, the more serious impacts may be in the longer term rather than the shorter term.

Turkey

 >      The National (UAE) “How Turkey is winning back the Eastern Mediterranean”

Faced with economic and pandemic-related challenges at home, Ankara is, nevertheless, riding high beyond its borders. Turkey is suddenly poised to cement its renewed position of prominence in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. It’s all rather tenuous, and one wrong move could still derail this peace train. But since late 2020, what Ankara has achieved with a shift in approach, a dash of desperation and a bit of chutzpah is impressive and shows just how fleeting isolation can be in this fast-changing geopolitical landscape.

 Africa

>      War on the Rocks “Why France Failed in Mali”

On Feb. 17, President Emmanuel Macron announced his decision to withdraw French forces from Mali. These troops form part of Operation Barkhane, a French anti-jihadist operation primarily focused on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. While it may be excessive to expect a French operation that peaked at just 5,100 troops to effectively check the spread of regional interlocking civil wars, France has not accomplished its aims. What accounts for the French failure?

>      Institute for Security Studies (South Africa) “Going for gold leaves Senegal’s artisanal mining communities poorer”

Stopping mercury and cyanide use is vital, but so is preserving the country’s soil, rivers, and trees. In the Kédougou region, where 98 percent of Senegal’s gold mining sites are located, significant deforestation, soil degradation, and water, air, and ground pollution from chemicals used for gold processing are soaring.

India

>      Foreign Affairs “India’s Faltering Nonalignment”

The Ukraine Crisis should and likely will force New Delhi to rethink its Russia policy.

Science/Technology

>      Science “Microbes convert industrial waste gases into commodity chemicals”

Chemicals cost more than just money: Today, petrochemical production spews out nearly 2% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Now, researchers have taken an important step to vastly reduce that footprint, by using bacteria and waste gases from steel plants, rather than petroleum, as the starting ingredient for dozens of commodity chemicals.

>      Nature “How a Space Rock became King Tut’s Dagger”

An X-ray scan helps to show how the pharaoh’s knife was forged — and suggests a prestigious pedigree.