Read Around the World in a Weekend: March 4, 2022

Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world.  We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun.  Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.

Russia/Ukraine

>      Wilson Center “Cryptocurrency as the New Frontline in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”

Beyond the sphere of the traditional economy and finance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be a defining moment for the crypto economy—demonstrating the geopolitical implications of the crypto economy and cryptofinance in the context of global conflicts. In that regard, Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov requested that centralized cryptocurrency exchanges freeze Russian digital wallets to prevent financial transactions and payments by Russia through alternative means.

>      Congressional Research Service (CRS) “Russian Cyber Units”

Russia has deployed sophisticated cyber capabilities to conduct disinformation, propaganda, espionage, and destructive cyberattacks globally. To conduct these operations, Russia maintains numerous units that are overseen by various security and intelligence agencies. The CRS explains in detail who they are what the focus on.

>      Defense Business Brief “Arms to Ukraine: A Comprehensive List”

There has been an unprecedented amount of weaponry contributed to Ukraine to defend itself from Russian aggression.  Here is a complete list of who has given and what they have given to date.

>      International Institute for Strategic Studies “Putin’s Strategic Failure and the Risk of Escalation”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is emerging as a grand strategic mistake, argues Nigel Gould-Davies. As the situation becomes more volatile and less predictable, is escalation the only way forward for a weakened Putin?

>      Foreign Policy “NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point – The Suwalki Corridor”

On the Polish-Lithuanian border, the West must respond to Russia’s actual capabilities rather than making assumptions about its intent.

>      The Atlantic “Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man”

Foreign Policy scholar Eliot Cohen asks why did so many observers misjudge Putin and Zelensky?

>      Carnegie Institute for International Peace “How does this end?”

Amid the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, experts can spin out an infinite number of branching scenarios on how this might end. But scores of war games conducted for the U.S. and allied governments suggest that if we boil it down, there are really only two paths toward ending the war: one, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine that will be extremely hard for the United States and many European allies to swallow.

>      Adam Tooze’s Chartbook “Chartbook #91: What if Putin’s War Regime Turns to MMT?”

Sanctions are the chosen weapon of the West against Putin’s aggression. Rather than starting small, we have gone immediately to an attack on the central bank. In response, the Russian central bank has effectively stopped capital flows out of Russia and nationalized foreign exchange earnings of major exporters. It now requires Russian firms to convert 80 percent of the dollar and euro earnings into ruble. This helps to bolster the ruble’s value and provides a flow of foreign exchange into the country. 

China 

>      Center for Strategic and International Studies “China’s Economy and Ukraine: All Downside Risks”

The potential short-term risks for China’s economy emanating from the Ukraine crisis are all manageable, but the longer the time horizon, the greater are the dangers to China’s economy and its international influence. There are almost no scenarios in which China comes out net ahead. China’s trade ties with Russia and Ukraine are not insignificant, valued in 2021 at $147 billion and $19 billion, respectively. 

Germany

>      Foreign Policy “Putin Accidentally Started a Revolution in Germany”

American Institute for Contemporary German Studies President Jeff Rathke explains how the invasion of Ukraine is triggering a dramatic reversal of Berlin’s grand strategy.

 Egypt

 >      Middle East Institute “The Russia-Ukraine War Has Turned Egypt’s Food Crisis Into an Existential Threat to the Economy”

Egypt’s food security crisis due to the Ukraine crisis now poses an existential threat to its economy. The fragile state of Egypt’s food security stems from the agricultural sector’s inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country’s domestic demand. Cairo relies on large volumes of heavily subsidized imports its 105 million citizens.

>    Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism “Shadows of Death Loom Over Occupants of Buildings at Risk of Collapse”

In the past seven years, 500 Egyptians perished under the rubble due to the collapse of their residential buildings. This happened amidst the Egyptian government’s inaction to repair derelict properties or demolish them once their residents have been given alternative places to live. Citizens are increasingly angry at the government for their lack of response or enforcing greater enforcement of building codes.

Latin America

 >      France 24 “Russia Receives Venezuela’s ‘Strong Support’”

In rare backing for Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday assured Vladimir Putin of his "strong support" in a telephone call, according to a Kremlin statement.  This leaves many observers wondering “what’s in it for Maduro and his regime?”

>      Americas Society/Council of Americas “Latin American Leaders React to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”

See what has been said by countries like UN Security Council members Brazil and Mexico and Moscow allies Cuba and Venezuela.

Finance and Development

 >      Carmen Reinhart and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu/IMF “Shining a Light on Debt”

As the COVID-19 crisis lingers and Russia invades Ukraine, emerging market and developing economies are entering perilous waters that evoke memories of past debt defaults. Although all countries amassed debt to fight the pandemic, the economic recovery in these economies substantially lags their advanced economy counterparts.

Climate Change/Sustainability

 >      IPCC 6th Assessment Report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which was created by the UN Environmental Program and World Meteorological Organization, published their 6th assessment report on the state of global climate.